20240121_广发证券_金属及金属新材料行业：金属板块超跌布局正当时_25页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/25 Table_Page 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 Table_Title Table_Summary 3 23 GDP 5.2%Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.02%-1.94%0.81%-1.43%2.18%23M12 0.6%0.4%Fedwatch 24 1 20 24 3 25pb 46.2%3 23 GDP 5.2%A+H A+H Wind 1 15 1 19-0.21%0.90%2.51%-1.08%0.43 PCT 26.40%9%Wind 1 15 1 19 COMEX 1.06%2031.8/0.77%103.23 18.7 20.7 20.3 2023 12 0.4%0.2%0.2%1 A+H H 1 15 1 19 Wind 0.35%9.66/8.46/SC6 1000/Wind 1 15 1 19 0.25%40.10/12.26/0.90%3285/1 Table_Grade 2024-01-21 Table_PicQuote Table_Author SAC S0260518070003 SFC CE No.BOB672 010-59136627 SAC S0260513080002 SFC CE No.BNV167 0755-88286912 SAC S0260523050004 021-38003617 Table_DocReport:2024-01-14 Table_Contacts 010-59136627 021-38003631-24%-19%-13%-7%-1%5%01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 601600.SH CNY 5.26 2023/10/26 7.77 0.39 0.41 13.49 12.83 2.75 2.61 11.80 11.70 002532.SZ CNY 5.51 2023/10/27 8.41 0.65 0.69 8.48 7.99 3.93 3.60 11.90 11.50 601168.SH CNY 13.95 2023/10/22 15.79 1.32 1.40 10.57 9.96 4.22 4.27 16.90 15.80 600019.SH CNY 5.77 2023/10/25 6.75 0.56 0.63 10.30 9.16 3.74 3.49 6.30 6.90 002318.SZ CNY 19.91 2023/10/30 23.66 1.58 1.89 12.60 10.53 12.58 10.33 21.10 21.90 000975.SZ CNY 13.83 2023/10/29 16.81 0.56 0.60 24.70 23.05 10.98 10.43 13.10 12.90 600456.SH CNY 26.51 2023/10/28 45.48 1.57 2.11 16.89 12.56 8.21 7.42 11.30 14.00 688122.SH CNY 38.93 2023/09/03 56.01 1.60 2.04 24.33 19.08 17.67 14.29 15.70 17.90 601958.SH CNY 9.39 2023/10/29 14.73 0.98 1.13 9.58 8.31 5.78 5.13 21.00 22.10 300855.SZ CNY 23.34 2023/10/22 40.39 0.87 1.22 26.83 19.13 21.16 15.51 18.80 20.70 000807.SZ CNY 10.61 2023/10/26 17.43 1.25 1.27 8.49 8.35 4.57 4.53 16.50 14.70 000708.SZ CNY 13.10 2023/10/30 21.24 1.25 1.45 10.48 9.03 5.65 5.11 17.10 19.30 000878.SZ CNY 10.17 2023/10/27 14.81 1.14 1.35 8.92 7.53 3.51 3.14 15.50 17.00 600547.SH CNY 20.91 2023/10/29 25.49 0.51 0.75 41.00 27.88 9.73 7.94 6.70 9.40 603799.SH CNY 29.17 2023/10/25 58.82 2.80 3.85 10.42 7.58 4.30 3.35 11.90 14.20 603993.SH CNY 5.19 2024/01/19 7.34 0.36 0.49 14.42 10.59 5.60 3.99 12.10 14.80 002466.SZ CNY 57.45 2023/10/27 67.21 5.60 3.15 10.26 18.24 2.91 5.40 17.40 9.10 002460.SZ CNY 41.52 2023/10/31 56.45 3.76 2.68 11.04 15.49 13.10 13.40 15.30 9.80 02600.HK HKD 3.39 2023/10/26 5.27 0.39 0.41 8.69 8.27 4.69 4.16 11.80 11.70 01787.HK HKD 11.94 2023/10/29 15.65 0.51 0.75 23.41 15.92 12.64 10.38 6.70 9.40 09696.HK HKD 38.55 2023/10/27 52.39 5.60 3.15 6.88 12.24 2.17 3.61 17.40 9.10 01772.HK HKD 24.35 2023/10/31 39.44 3.76 2.68 6.48 9.09 15.60 17.08 15.30 9.80 01818.HK HKD 7.86 2023/11/16 10.66 50.79 35.91 0.15 0.22 19.61 15.98 3.40 4.60 002240.SZ CNY 23.41 2023/10/30 26.50 1.66 2.03 14.10 11.53 12.55 7.82 14.90 15.50 600392.SH CNY 8.88 2023/10/30 13.56 0.15 0.27 59.20 32.89 34.98 22.05 2.70 4.70 Wind WUBYwPrMsRmNpRnOrMqPnM7N8QbRpNmMtRnRkPrRnMeRtRsRaQpPxPwMmQqQxNmNnN 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属.6 3 23 GDP 5.2%.6.7.7.8.8.9.13.23.23 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 5.10 6 10.10 7 10.10 8 10.11 9 10.11 10 500 100.11 11%.12 12%.12 13 LME.14 14 SHFE.14 15 LME.14 16 SHFE.14 17 LME.14 18 SHFE.14 19 LME.15 20 SHFE.15 21 LME.15 22 SHFE.15 23 LME.15 24 SHFE.15 25.16 26.16 27.16 28 MB.16 29.16 30.16 31.17 32.17 33.17 34.17 35.17 36.17 37.18 38.18 39:.19 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 40.19 41.19 42.19 43.19 44.19 45.20 46.20 47:.20 48:.20 49:.20 50:.20 51:.21 52:.21 53:.21 54:.21 55:.21 56:.21 57:.22 58:.22 59 GDP.23 60 CPI.23 61.23 62 PMI.23 1.13 2.18 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 3 23 GDP 5.2%Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.02%-1.94%0.81%-1.43%2.18%LME 1.32%-0.60%-6.21%-4.18%-4.94%SHFE-0.63%-1.94%0.21%-2.18%3.62%SHFE 10.83%0.02%-36.12%-10.04%4.33%Wind 23 12 7098.9 0.6%0.4%0.3%3 Fedwatch 24 1 20 24 3 25pb 46.2%Wind 2023 GDP 5.2%-9.6%-20.4%-7.2%17.0%6.5%Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.02%8,380.00/LME 1.32%157,875 SHFE 0.63%67,770.00/SHFE 10.83%47,753 SMM Mysteel Wind 1 19 7.54 0.34 1 19 TC 34.50/-2.97%1.57%1.96 3.12 72.46%71.98%1.28 6.42PCT Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.94%2,172.50/LME 0.60%555,225 SHFE 1.94%18,660.00/SHFE 0.02%96,687 Wind Mysteel SMM 1 18 31.5 1.8-0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.5PCT 49.3%64.4%49.0%53.5%73.4%75.6%Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.43%2,473.00/LME 4.18%202,050 SHFE 2.18%20,675.00/SHFE 10.04%22,602 1 19 SMM 7.09 0.63-2.76 3.28-0.40PCT 53.84%50.00%56.47%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 0.81%2,108.00/LME 6.21%112,225 SHFE 0.21%16,360.00/SHFE 36.12%37,122 SMM Mysteel 1 19 5.00 2.04 44.27%8.31PCT Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 2.18%25,295.00/LME 4.94%7,030 SHFE 3.62%214,230.00/SHFE 4.33%6,584 SMM Wind 1 5 8920 453 62.01%0.82PCT 7.98%Wind 1 15 1 19 LME 1.29%16,040.00/LME 0.68%69,576 SHFE 1.14%127,950.00/SHFE 0.58%14,111 Wind 1 15 1 19 9.03%14100.00 0.78 PCT 90.09%0.21%4249.00/0.90%957.00/2.51%2446.00/1.08%2740.00/0.43 PCT 26.40%23M1-12 8.24%9.6%8.5%17.0%6.5%23.5%9.3%Wind 1 15 1 19 COMEX 1.06%2031.8/0.77%103.23 18.7 2022 9 24 20.7 20.2 20.3 1 6 180.6 184.5 183.4 183.2 2023 12 0.6%0.4%0.3%2023 12 0.4%0.2%0.2%1 17 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1 15 1 19 Wind 0.35%9.66/8.46/SC6 1000/Wind 1 15 1 19 0.25%40.10/1.56%585.00/0.78%194.50/Wind 1 15 1 19 65%12.26/Wind 1 15 1 19 45%0.90%3285.00/Wind 1 15 1 19 2.02%4.85/1.36%0.22/0.94/1.76%8.91/3.13%2.14/620.00/1.41/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 1 15 1 19 4.99%1453.05 5.44%11265.19 5.27%13549.18 6.70%5293.57 01 15 01 19 1 2 Wind Wind Wind 1 15 1 19 6.55%2489.99 3.63%1895.95 6.19%2473.92 3 4 Wind Wind 05001,0001,5002,000010,00020,00030,0002022/12/8 2023/6/8 2023/12/8:-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%01,0002,0003,0004,0002022/12/8 2023/6/8 2023/12/8:-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 5 Wind 6 10 7 10 Wind Wind-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 8 10 9 10 Wind Wind Wind 1 15 1 19 500 1.17%4839.81 1.85%2891.06 6.81%777.78 100 2.14%7461.93 10 500 100 Wind-4%-3%-2%-1%0%-20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,0002023/1/19 2023/3/19 2023/5/19 2023/7/19 2023/9/19 2023/11/19 2024/1/19 100:500 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 11%Wind 2023 12 29 12%Wind 2023 12 29-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1/9.66 0.03 0.35%0.35%/8.46 0.00 0.00%0.00%/22.00-0.10-0.45%-0.45%MB/18.13 0.45 2.55%2.55%MB/16.65 0.57 3.58%3.58%/3.32 0.00 0.00%0.00%LME/16040.00-210.00-1.29%-3.49%SHFE/127950.00-1470.00-1.14%2.19%LME/8380.00 85.00 1.02%-2.13%SHFE/67770.00-430.00-0.63%-1.67%LME/2172.50-43.00-1.94%-9.01%SHFE/18660.00-370.00-1.94%-4.33%LME/2108.00 17.00 0.81%1.98%SHFE/16360.00 35.00 0.21%3.06%LME/2473.00-36.00-1.43%-7.10%SHFE/20675.00-460.00-2.18%-4.04%LME/25295.00 540.00 2.18%-0.02%SHFE/214230.00 7480.00 3.62%1.00%/4.85-0.10-2.02%0.00%/0.22 0.00 1.36%0.00%/1.41 0.00 0.00%0.00%/0.94 0.00 0.00%0.00%/8.91 0.15 1.76%0.00%/8.90 0.18 2.01%0.00%/620.00 0.00 0.00%0.00%/2.14 0.06 3.13%0.00%COMEX/2031.80-21.80-1.06%-1.93%SHFE/480.36-0.42-0.09%-0.28%COMEX/22.75-0.61-2.61%-5.31%SHFE/5913.00 18.00 0.31%-1.05%/194.50 1.50 0.78%-22.20%/585.00 9.00 1.56%-21.21%/40.10 0.10 0.25%-9.48%65%/12.26 0.00 0.00%0.00%45%/3285.00-30.00-0.90%3.14%Wind 2023 12 29 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 13 LME 14 SHFE Wind Wind 15 LME 16 SHFE Wind Wind 17 LME 18 SHFE Wind Wind 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME LME/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000050,000100,000150,000200,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME LME/13000135001400014500150001550016000165001700017500180000200004000060000800001000001200002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000050,000100,000150,000200,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 19 LME 20 SHFE Wind Wind 21 LME 22 SHFE Wind Wind 23 LME 24 SHFE Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0000200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME/LME 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19LME LME/050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19SHFE SHFE/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 25 26 Wind Wind 27 28 MB Wind Wind 29 30 Wind Wind 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19 Li2CO3 99.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19 LiOH 56.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19/0510152025303540452022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19MB/MB/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 31 32 Wind Wind 33 34 Wind Wind 35 36 Wind Wind 02468102022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19 99.7%/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002022/01/19 2023/01/19 2024/01/19/050010001500200025002402903403904404905402020/12/8 2021/12/8 2022/12/8 2023/12/8SHFE/COMEX/101520253001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002020/12/8 2021/12/8 2022/12/8 2023/12/8SHFE COMEX 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000024681012142021/1/19 2022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/1965%/45%/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 37 38 Wind Wind 2:/4249.00-9.00-0.21%-0.65%:/4008.00-14.00-0.35%-0.99%:/4235.00-8.00-0.19%-0.68%:/4130.00-9.00-0.22%-0.67%:/4169.00-5.00-0.12%-0.14%:/4794.00-9.00-0.19%-0.64%:/4992.00-11.00-0.22%-0.85%:/4278.00-4.00-0.09%-0.51%:/5004.00-12.00-0.24%-0.34%:/4220.00-13.00-0.31%-0.54%:/4407.00-4.00-0.09%-0.68%:/4180.00-10.00-0.24%-0.29%:/4322.00-13.00-0.30%-1.12%/957.00 8.50 0.90%-2.25%/2,446.00 60.00 2.51%-1.83%-/2,740.00-30.00-1.08%-0.36%Wind 2023 12 29 010203040502021/1/19 2022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19/0204060801001200200400600800100012001400160018002021/1/19 2022/1/19 2023/1/19 2024/1/19/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 39:40 Wind Wind 41 42 Wind Wind 43 44 Wind Wind 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:(:)50%60%70%80%90%100%2022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19:05001,0001,5002,0002,5002022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19:()11,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,0004005006007008009001,0001,1002022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19():/:(:)()05010015020025030035001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19():(:/):(:)()05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19:(:/)识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 45 46 Wind Wind 47:48:Wind Wind 49:50:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19:(:/)0%20%40%60%80%100%2022-01-19 2023-01-19 2024-01-19(247):01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 51:52:Wind Wind 53:54:Wind Wind 55:56:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 57:58:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-12-15 2022-12-15 2023-12-15:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 59 GDP 60 CPI Wind Wind 61 62 PMI Wind Wind-40-20020402013/122014/062014/122015/062015/122016/062016/122017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12 GDP%GDP%GDP%GDP%-20246810122013/122014/062014/122015/062015/122016/062016/122017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12 CPI%CPI%CPI%CPI%05101520201320142014201520152016201620172017201820182019201920202020202120212022202220232023%35404550556065702 0 1 3/2 0 1 4/2 0 1 4/2 0 1 5/2 0 1 5/2 0 1 6/2 0 1 6/2 0 1 7/2 0 1 7/2 0 1 8/2 0 1 8/2 0 1 9/2 0 1 9/2 0 2 0/2 0 2 0/2 0 2 1/2 0 2 1/2 0 2 2/2 0 2 2/PMI PMI PMI PMI 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Table_ResearchTeam 2011 2021 2021 2023 Table_RatingIndustry 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%Table_RatingCompany 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%Table_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-Table_LegalDisclaimer/4 Table_ImportantNotices 1 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/25 Table_PageText 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属/5 Table_InterestDisclosure(1)12 Table_Copyright