20240114_国盛证券_计算机行业2023年报前瞻：复苏仍在蓄势_21页.pdf

|2024 01 14 2023 AI 2023 2023+2023 2023 1 IT 2023 IT 2 2023 2024 SaaS 1 IT AIGC 2 SaaS AIGC SaaS 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 1 2023 AI 2 2023 S0680518090001 S0680518050002 S0680523080001 S0680523080002 1 2024-01-05 2 2023-12-30 3 M9 5.4 2023-12-27-32%-16%0%16%32%48%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 300 2024 01 14 P.2 IT AI AI AI IT ZXAZvMsPmPoPpRmPnQsNqRbR9R8OtRoOsQmQkPoOrQfQnMqN9PnMqQvPtQyQvPsQoO 2024 01 14 P.3 AI.4.6+.8.10 SaaS.11 AIGC.11 SaaS AIGC.12.13.14 2023.16.17 IT AI.19.20 1 AI.4 2 OpenAI.5 3 AI 2023.5 4.6 5.6 6 2020 DCS.7 7 2023.7 8.8 9.8 10 2023.9 11.10 12 GPT.11 13 2022 SaaS.12 14 SaaS AIGC.12 15.13 16 2019-2025E.14 17 2019-2022.14 18 2021-2023.15 19.16 20 AI.19 21.19 22 WiNGPT.20 2024 01 14 P.4 AI ChatGPT GPT3.5 ChatGPT pre-training Foundation Model fine-tuning OpenAI 1 AI 2024 01 14 P.5 2 OpenAI OpenAI 2023 AI GPT3.5 ChatGPT 2022 AI 2022 AI 2023 3 AI 2023 2023 Q4 E YoY 2023 Q4 E YoY 253.2 8.0%47.96 20.0%64.7 5.0%1.41 0.0%104.3 11.0%9.15 45.0%3.0 10.0%0.31 30.0%Wind 2024 01 14 P.6 2015 305 92 37.6%3 16.1%1.25 21.2%30.8%25.6%4 CATIA IBM Know-how 5/CADAM CALMA CV UG CATIA SURF PDGS EUCLID ANSYS 37.60%16.10%-21.20%-30.80%-25.65%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2024 01 14 P.7 Know-how 6 2020 DCS MIR 2023 2023 7 2023 2023 Q4 E YoY 2023 Q4 E YoY 3.1 25.0%0.38 50.0%30.0 25.0%3.89 20.0%Wind,28.5%,16.5%,15.9%,8.8%,6.9%ABB,6.0%,4.9%,3.3%,2.5%,6.8%2024 01 14 P.8+2023 2022 10 2023 Q1 513.82 7.22%93.80 2.67%2023 4 8 Wind 9 Wind 0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11中国:产量:乘用车:当月值中国:销量:乘用车:当月值050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,0002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11中国:产量:商用车:当月值 中国:销量:商用车:当月值 2024 01 14 P.9 1 2 2023 o o 4G 5G T-BOX AR-HUD o 23Q1 42.20%o ETC V2X V2X GNSS 360 NFC 2014 2022 9 2023 12 31 10 2023 2023 Q4 E YoY 2023 Q4 E YoY 65.1 35.0%6.40 30.0%16.7 5.0%1.37 5.0%Wind 2024 01 14 P.10 2023 IT 1 IT 2 2023 IT 1 2022 12 19 2 2023 22 4 30 27 11 1 2 7 2024 1 2023 2 0 1 2023 2024 2024 01 14 P.11 SaaS AIGC 1 2023 IT 2 2022 11 9 2023 5 25 Meta 21000 19000 1 ChatGPT AI OpenAI 2 GPT ChatGPT 12 GPT GPT-1 1.17 Transformer GPT-2 15 GPT-3 1750 OpenAI 10 1 6 7 VezaDigital OpenAI 10 3 8.47 Top20 2 A100 OneFlow NVIDIA A100 AWS GPU DGX A100 8 A100 GPU AI 5 PetaFLOP/s 6.5kw 19.9/Similarweb 2023 1 ChatGPT 2023/1/27-2023/2/3 2500 10 2.5 A100 30 A100 GPU 350ms 729,167 A100 GPU A100 729,167/24=30,382 A100 GPU ChatGPT DGX A100 30,382/8=3,798 3,798/7=542 ChatGPT 542*140=7.59 542*45.5kw*24h=591,864kwh/Hashrate Index 0.08/kwh 2,369,640*0.08=4.7/2024 01 14 P.12 Google 35 AIGC SaaS AIGC SaaS SaaS 2022 SaaS 13 2022 SaaS 2022 688111.SH 27.42 43.45%002410.SZ 32.75 27.89%002153.SZ 3.36 30.00%600588.SH 20.4 23.80%0268.HK 21.4 36.30%0909.HK 14.27 6.60%AIGC SaaS AIGC SaaS AIGC SaaS 14 SaaS AIGC AI AI AIGC AR AI AI CV BIP AIPaaS AI RPA AI BIP3 2,300 70 AI 1,000 300 2024 01 14 P.13 1 2023 PC 23674 2 AI 2023-2024 G 28 2024 2023 12 2023-2025 2025 100 400 1000 2023 12 2023 1 CPU 2023 12 7 2023 2024 2023 2023 Q4 2024 AI 2023 15 2022A 2023E yoy 2022A 2023E yoy 688041.SH 1667 51.3 60.8 19%8.0 13.0 62%603019.SH 545 130.1 150.0 15%15.4 20.0 30%Wind 2024 1 5 2024 01 14 P.14 12 8 1 2022 633 3.1%2023-2025 10%+2025 800 2022 CR1 9.83%CR4 28.59%CR8 44.91%2018-2022 2018 21.71%2022 28.59%16 2019-2025E 17 2019-2022 AI 1 2023 4 2023 2 2021 527.4 2023 937.5 2023 8 9 11 2023 2024 01 14 P.15 18 2021-2023 2023 1 2025 2035 1 2025 1500 CAGR 30%2 2035 AI 1 2022 11 OpenAI ChatGPT AI AI 2 3 AI AI AI AI 2023 527.4691.9937.513.20%31.20%35.50%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%010020030040050060070080090010002021 2022 2023E yoy 2024 01 14 P.16 2023 2023 2018 2018 2020 4 2021 2022 2023 19 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 01 14 P.17 1 2022 AI Optimus 2023 1 4 26 Robotics X TRX-Hand TRX-Arm 2 3 23 1X OpenAI A2 3 5 16 NVIDIA ITF 2023 embodied AI VIMA 4 8 14 CyberDog 2 5 10 19 techcrunch Agility Digit 6 10 24 PX5 7 12 13 Optimus Gen 2 10kg 30%/11 2 1)2023 6 28 2023 2025 2025 300 2)2023 10 23 2023-2025 2025 3)2023 11 2 2025 3 AI+ChatGPT AI AI GPT 2023 3 5620 PalM-E 5400 PaLM 220 ViT 2023 7 Google DeepMind Robotic Transformer 2 RT-2-VLA RT-2 VLM RT-2 2023 11 FSD V12 2023.38.10 2024 01 14 P.18 4 50 50 12 38 2024 01 14 P.19 IT AI AI BCG The CEO s Roadmap on Generative AI AI GPT ChatGPT 20 AI BCG AI 1 AI C AI AI EI 21 2024 01 14 P.20 2 WiNGPT 2023 4 6 9 60 156 650 22 WiNGPT AI G IT 2024 01 14 P.21“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033