20230307_华创证券_电池铝箔行业证券研究报告：龙头格局稳定受益钠电、涂炭增利_36页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 03 07 1 2 23 50%23 23 21 0.6/0.1-0.3/knowhow 1.2 1.5-3/23 1 2 3 S0360522080001%()294 0.04()66,068.56 6.94()53,636.54 7.38%1M 6M 12M-6.0%-6.8%-13.1%-4.3%-8.9%-2.5%2023-02-28 2023-02-27 iDD 2023-02-27-33%-20%-6%7%22/03 22/05 22/07 22/10 22/12 23/032022-03-032023-03-03 300 2009 1210 23 1 2 50%23 23 23-25 47.8 65.6 91.0 CAGR 39.5%23 ZXCXzQqNtQmNqOoNrMtMqR6M8QbRoMmMmOnOjMrRmPfQoOqP6MoPmRwMoMyRxNrQoN 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8“+”.9.10.10.12:+39.5%.14.15.15.16.18.19 23.19.21.21.22.23.26+.26.29 22.30.30.31.32 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 2021.6 3 2019-2021.6 4.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.8 9/.9 10 2021.9 11 2021.9 12.10 13.10 14 AB.11 15.11 16.12 17.12 18.12 19.12 20 PET.13 21 GWh 260wh/kg.13 22 GWh.13 23.14 24 2021.15 25 2022H1.15 26.15 27.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31.17 32.18 33.19 2009 1210 5 34.19 35/.21 36/.21 37/.21 38.22 39.22 40.23 41 Ta.23 42.23 43.24 44.24 45.24 46.25 47.26 48 2022 9 30.26 49.27 50 2018-2022Q3.27 51.27 52.27 53/.27 54/.27 55.28 56.28 57.28 58 2022H1.29 59 2018-2022Q3.29 60.29 61 2022H1.30 62 2018-2022Q3.30 63 2022H1.30 64 2018-2022Q3.30 65 2022H1.31 66 2018-2022Q3.31 2009 1210 6 0.2mm 0.2mm 1 2021 73.6%3.08%2019-2021 52.75%2021 9.64%2 2021 3 2019-2021 51.6%,22.0%,2.4%,3.1%,20.9%,0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02468101214162019 2020 2021 2009 1210 7 4 5 LOMO LCO LFP LMO NCM 0.6V Li 3D LiMnO4 MnO2 Fe304 2009 1210 8 6 7 8 Al2O3 1mm 40 m 20 m 4.5 2009 1210 9 9/+A00 99%+88.4%22.3%39.9%37.8%10 2021 11 2021,88.4%,2.6%,4.6%,4.4%,22.3%,39.9%,37.8%2009 1210 10 Li+Na+2.75%0.0065%75 30%-40%-40 80-20 90%12 13 CATL 120Wh kg 200Wh kg 200Wh kg 350Wh kg 100Wh kg 160Wh kg AB 2009 1210 11 14 AB CATL 2022 9 30 1GWh 10 27 200MWh 2021 1MWh 5GWh 1GWh 2023 15 100MW 5GWh 1GWh2022 11 29 4GWh 23 3-5GW 24 10GW 2022 10 25 4 35 8 1GWh 200MWh 2022 10 27 I 4.5GWh 23 II 8GWh 1GWh 5GWh 0.5-0.6GWh 1GWh 23 4-5 10GWh 23 3GWh 2GWh 2022 23 6 2021 2022 2022 3 2023 2GWh 2022 3 2023 6 2023 2024 1GWh 2022 8 23 4 23 2024 2009 1210 12 6000 23 2021 2023 PP PET PI 8m PET 6m 1.2m 6m PET 4m 1m 16 17 18 19 2009 1210 13 20 PET PET g/cm3 1.38 2.7 8.92 PET-49%-85%/2.60 1.62 6.00 PET 57%-60%/3.59 4.37 53.76 PET-18%-93%WIND 2022 11 11 8m 8 m 6m 6.5m+0.28%4.86%2.67%8.33%21 GWh 260wh/kg 6 m PET 12 m PET/GWh 34.71 11.57 5.24 0.87 PET/GWh 1.75 2.15/GWh 34.71 13.32 5.24 3.02/GWh 805.31 783.9 805.31 803.1 4.31%1.70%0.65%0.38%PET-2.66%-0.28%22 GWh 6 m PET 12 m PET/GWh 578.5 192.8 323.3 53.9 PET/GWh 67.1 82.6/GWh 578.5 260.0 323.3 136.5/GWh 3846.2 3527.6 3846.2 3659.4 15.04%7.37%8.40%3.73%PET-8.28%-4.86%2009 1210 14:+39.5%25 2426 1750GWh 25 502GWh 25 2442GWh 25 2%20%10%140GWh 350 750/GWh 23-25 47.8 65.6 91.0 CAGR 39.5%23 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 323 617 859 1124 1420 300 389 535 746 1006 623 1006 1394 1870 2426 GWh 411 669 966 1295 1750 220 412 596 758 998 191 257 370 537 752 66 159 239 358 502 70 67 69 72 75 16 19 23 27 33 17 22 28 35 42 8 20 25 30 40 588 956 1350 1817 2442 588 954 1337 1767 2302 0 2 13 51 140 0.0%0.0%0.3%1.0%2.0%0.0%1.0%4.0%10.0%20.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%5.0%10.0%/GWh/GWh 350 350 350 350 350/GWh 750 750 750 750 750 20.58 33.40 46.79 61.83 80.58 0.00 0.12 0.98 3.79 10.47 20.58 33.52 47.77 65.62 91.05 markline 2009 1210 15 2022H1 49%2021 9pcts 21 22%2022H1 15%2022H1 3%-7%24 2021 25 2022H1 17 127.1 26 80 20+60 4.5 5 10 7.2 1.6 10 6 3.5 5 20 2 6 25 10/5,40%,22%,8%,7%,6%,4%,1%,11%,49%,15%,7%,7%,6%,3%,4%,4%,6%2009 1210 16 2 20 2.5 27 1.25%Al-Cu(Si)(Si)(Fe)0.8 1.0%(Fe)(Fe)1.2%(Ni)(Cu)(Si)0.05mm 0.013-0.05mm 0.013mm 28 1 2009 1210 17 200 2 90%99%1%10%29 30 特性 脂 肪酸 脂 肪醇 脂 肪醇酯 C10-C14 C10-C12 C10-C14 添 加剂 油 膜强度（N）平 均摩擦系 数 189 0.140 5%279 0.125 5%345 0.112 5%+1%478 0.102 3 31 0.015mm 5-20mm 2009 1210 18 2019 1 IATF16949 2 2-3 32/2009 1210 19 90%75%800m/min 700m/min 1000/33/m/min 90%1.5 0.85 0.65 800 75%1.7 1.15 0.55 700 23 23 2022-2025 30.2 48.5 89.3 116.7-3.4 0.7 23.6 25.7 23 2023 23 34 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 23 6.5 12.4 24 34 34 23 0.5 2 4.2 15.2 17.2 23 8 3.2 0.3 1 5 10 2 0.81 0.81 1 3.81 6.81 23 6 5 3 3 3 3.5 6 23 12 6 5 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.08 1.5 4 7 8.5 6 23 7.2 8.4 9.5 16.0 22.6 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.45 19.8 30.2 48.5 89.3 116.7 2009 1210 20 yoy 53%61%84%31%20.6 33.5 47.8 65.6 91.1-0.8-3.4 0.7 23.6 25.7 2009 1210 21 21 0.6/0.1-0.3/35/36/2021 2967 6433 1.2 2-3/37/80 20+60/70960 2967.25 10 12 5360 64325 6432.5 20 30 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40 2009 1210 22 38 5 5 6.11 1.22 10 10 20.82 2.08 7.2 7.2 14.19 1.97 6 6 19.15 3.19 5 2.5 3.50 1.40 6 10.03 1.67 39 2009 1210 23 40 41 Ta 22 1.8 22 2023 2+42 8000 5 10000 1.8 2025 8.08 2022 4 51%0.37 5 2.5 2023 18 2022 11 40000 2022 11 3-5 6 2022 12 90%2023 2 2009 1210 24 43 44 2023 60 2026 200 2024 40 2025 100 60 22 25 2030 800 EV HV lucid 2022 7180 2023 1-1.4 Rivian 2022 24337 2023 5 Fisker 2023 4.24 energy central 45 100GWh 73.4 508.93 64 2022 18 2022 14GWh 2026 100GWh 6GWh 12GWh 2022 2023 9 3.5GWh 46.4 6GWh 2022 10GWh 2018 6 2020 4 5000 NMP 5000 3.6 4 30 4 2023 7 4.2 6000 30 25GWh 5000 3.94 24 20 3000 2.3 18 1500 2009 1210 25 22 5 7 14.3%-24.6%CBAM 3750 46 2022 5 25 2022 7 12 14.3%-24.6%CBAM 21 7 CBAM 23-25 23 2 9 ENVI CBAM 3750 3750 23/24/25/26/27 40%/50%/60%/70%/80%3750 3750 23/24 25/26/27/28/29 50%/60%/70%/80%/90%/100%/congress.gov 2009 1210 26+2005 47 48 2022 9 30 WIND 2021 2022 166.45+29.4%10.33+293.3%2021 17.53 170.70%9.65%+4.44pcts 2021 29.64%5.20+200.71%26.4%2009 1210 27 49 50 2018-2022Q3 WIND WIND 51 52 WIND WIND 2009 2016 53/54/38.2%33.7%36.9%30.3%32.0%4.8%4.6%4.4%5.2%9.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-35-30-25-20-15-10-505-500501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 40.6%36.0%32.1%24.5%24.8%12.4%12.5%11.9%16.4%26.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.40 2009 1210 28 CATL ATL LG SK SDI 51.2 8.08 2025 LG 2023-2026 6.1 55 2021-2025 51.2 2022-2025 8.08 LG 2023-2026 6.1 23 12.4 20 2023 10 20 2023 10 56 2022 3.6 3.6 3.6 5 5 5 80 20 0 3.8 32.4 12.4 23 2005 14 LG outstanding partner 27 2019 2021 69.16 38%69.59%3 2023 57 WIND 0501001502002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 29 2022Q1-3 42.8+5%1.6+632%4 21 14.2 3.2 23 8 10 24 7 2022 4 16 51%3700 2022 7 29 5 5 2.5 2023 2022 23-26 32 58 2022H1 59 2018-2022Q3 WIND WIND 60/10 10 2024.7 4 4 2021.12 3.2 3.2 2023.8 17.2 0.37 5 2.5 2.5 2023 5 2.5 2.5 18 5.37 22+52%34%7%2%1%4%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%-1001020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 2009 1210 30 22 2022Q1-Q3 247.3+13.5%24.0-25.6%20 2 61 2022H1 62 2018-2022Q3 WIND WIND 2022Q1-Q3 321.3+29.3%58.5+154.6%11.5 5.5 22 22 1.5 63 2022H1 64 2018-2022Q3 WIND WIND 63.9%24.9%5.3%2.8%1.6%1.3%0.3%-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 66.9%23.0%5.8%1.4%1.4%0.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 2009 1210 31 2022 Q1-3 87.1-4%7.2+130%UAJC 4 0.81 10 5 2023 2025 65 2022H1 66 2018-2022Q3 WIND WIND 25%23%16%8%7%5%5%3%3%3%2%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 2009 1210 32 2009 1210 33/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2009 1210 34 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 35(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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