20221116_东方证券_证券行业2023年年度策略：龙头守正+中小出奇底部配置正当时_42页.pdf

|2022 1 2022/11/09()PB 2017 0.9%2 3 2022 23 1 2 22 A 3 1 i ii iii app 2 i ii iii II PB 17 0.9%1(600030)(601995)2(600145)(601878)(600909)(600095)/2022 11 16 021-63325888*7041 S0860520080006 BSW114 021-63325888*6083 S0860514060001 BPU409 2022-05-12 2021 1Q22 2022-04-17 2022 2021-12-04+2023 +2 1.2022.5 1.1.5 1.2.“”.7 2.22 23“”8 2.1.“”.9 2.1.1.9 2.1.2.“”12 2.2.2023.14 2.2.1.A 14 2.2.2./ETF 16 2.2.3.20 2.3.“”.21 3.“”“”.23 3.1.“”Fintech.23 3.1.1.A 24 3.1.2.Fintech 26 3.1.3.app 29 3.2.+“”“”.31 3.2.1.“+”31 3.2.2.“”34 3.2.3.36 4.+.38 5.39 +3 1 2022 300 2022 11 09.5 2()()2022 11 09.5 3 2022%2022 11 9.6 4 2020/01-2022/09.6 5 2021/01-2022/09%.6 6%.10 7%.10 8 2019-2022.11 9 2015-2022 IPO.13 10 2019 7.13 11 2019 7.13 12 2019 7.13 13.16 14.16 15 2011-2022/(1-10).17 16 2011-2022/(1-10).17 17 2011-2022/10.17 18 2015-2021().18 19 2016/02-2022/10().18 20 19-22 IO MO.19 21 19-22 IO MO.19 22 2016-2021().19 23 2016-2021().19 24 2018/01-2022/01.21 25 2018/01-2022/01.21 26 2018/12-2022/01.21 27 2018/12-2022/01.21 28 21Q1-22Q3.22 29 21Q1-22Q3.22 30.23 31.23 32.24 33.27 34.27 +4 35.29 36.29 37.30 38.33 39.33 40.33 41.34 42 GDP.35 43.35 44.35 45.36 46 2021.37 47 2017/01-2022/10 II PB.38 48 2021/01-2022/11 PB 11 9.38 1 2019-2022.7 2 2022.8 3.9 4.9 5 19-22%.10 6.12 7.14 8.15 9.16 10 2022 5.17 11 2022 10.20 12.24 13.25 14.26 15.28 16.31 17.31 18 2021.33 19 17-21.36 20.37 21 17-21.37 +5 1.2022 1.1.2022 2022 11 09 300 28.73%19.11%II 32.67%()()2017 0.90%8.30%1 2022 300 2022 11 09 wind 2()()2022 11 09 wind 3.65%2.37%8.60%10%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%2022/1/42022/1/132022/1/222022/1/312022/2/92022/2/182022/2/272022/3/82022/3/172022/3/262022/4/42022/4/132022/4/222022/5/12022/5/102022/5/192022/5/282022/6/62022/6/152022/6/242022/7/32022/7/122022/7/212022/7/302022/8/82022/8/172022/8/262022/9/42022/9/132022/9/222022/10/12022/10/102022/10/192022/10/282022/11/6 300()0 1.01.52.02.5()801193.SI()CI005165.WI+6 2022 24.68%25.45%28.07%3 2022%2022 11 9 wind 22Q3 1 22 7-9 A 1.09 1.09 0.82 22 7-9 14.8%22.1%43.7%2022Q3 2 22 1.04 7%3 7-9 0.87%0.86%0.67%2.20%2.22%1.66%4 2020/01-2022/09 wind 5 2021/01-2022/09%(45.0)(40.0)(35.0)(30.0)(25.0)(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)0.05.010.0 02000400060008000100001200014000160002020/012020/022020/032020/042020/052020/062020/072020/082020/092020/102020/112020/122021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/09+7 wind 1.2.2022 1 2019 2020 2021 2 19 20 21 7 6 5 2022 1 2019-2022 2019 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.2020 1.2.3.4.5.6.2021 1.2.3.4.5.2022 1.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/09%+8 2022 1 2 3 A 2 2022 2022 2022/2/11 2022/4/21 2022/5/1 2022/5/20 2022/5/20 4 2022/7/15 2022/9/15 9 15 2022/10/21 1600 2200 38%2022/10/28 2022/10/31 2.22 23 2022 4 10 1 2 3 4 +9 2.1.2.1.1.2019 7 22 2020 8 14 2021 11 15 3 IPO 22 22 50%19 22 30 18.6%8.3%14.2%65.1%20 22 30 22.2%19.6%50.0%2022 180 72.6%180 A 3 30 90 180 30 90 180 2019 70 13 14 18 18.6%20.0%25.7%2020 145 12 21 28 8.3%14.5%19.3%2021 162 23 25 33 14.2%15.4%20.4%2022 106 69 74 77 65.1%69.8%72.6%wind:2022 10/28 4 30 90 180 30 90 180 2020 63 14 16 20 22.2%25.4%31.7%2021 199 39 53 65 19.6%26.6%32.7%2022 124 62 78 84 50.0%62.9%67.7%wind:2022 10/28 2022 101 49 67.0%66.5%19.6%48.2%89.6%77.9%23 19-22 59 71 60 101 20-22 35 30 49 23 2022 51 44 22 30.50%78.90 +10 6%7%wind:2022 10/28 wind:2022 10/28 5 19-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 41.33 3.66 14.76 18.91-13.79 95.75%116.08%75.81%-33.37%40.88 4.13 22.88 5.36-10.96 89.08%113.36%17.13%-26.82%31.40 1.39 21.30 8.92-13.96 126.67%144.00%42.53%-44.44%22.61 2.50 9.33 10.86 4.86 76.31%103.84%79.65%21.51%19.21 1.77 7.49 8.90-6.65 69.43%86.27%59.10%-34.63%14.42 2.35 9.08 5.30-3.46 103.75%174.21%65.40%-24.03%8.48 0.96 1.88 11.17-6.00 97.62%68.83%170.51%-70.77%7.24 0.88 4.92 3.12-1.68 60.94%121.08%54.69%-23.28%5.72 1.70 3.40 6.61-0.59 95.11%110.22%170.79%-10.26%5.50 0.62 2.36-0.41-0.79 237.02%172.14%-11.74%-14.39%4.43-1.11-0.58 0.00%0.00%-24.97%-13.19%4.35 0.01 0.58 1.43-0.45 1.54%40.06%41.81%-10.41%4.29 0.09 0.92 0.53 1.47 28.53%82.33%19.49%34.33%4.15-4.11 1.73-3.53 0.00%179.20%57.92%-85.04%3.67 0.26 0.59 3.86-1.62 65.58%27.88%114.36%-44.27%3.38 1.06 1.64 3.01-1.13 104.09%83.76%99.21%-33.30%3.06-2.02 1.23-2.14 0.00%214.59%48.57%-69.84%2.36 0.06 0.34 1.28-1.36 9.36%26.38%54.13%-57.77%2.26 0.70 3.21 4.56-2.64 70.50%163.16%202.06%-116.70%2.14-1.73-0.19-0.68 0.00%128.98%-9.11%-31.88%1.81-0.84 0.12 0.38 0.00%202.34%29.99%20.74%1.77 0.67 1.75 3.52-3.18 52.77%98.69%198.69%-179.08%1.72 0.20 0.59 1.65-0.98 66.61%75.89%95.90%-57.28%1.71-0.14 2.15 1.21 0.00%26.75%163.88%70.84%1.49-0.61 2.74-1.16 0.00%80.62%184.27%-78.29%1.48 0.15 1.15 2.83-1.22 57.55%134.96%191.48%-82.87%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022 0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050602020 2021 2022 +11 1.40 1.24 0.28 1.00-1.40 206.20%46.55%99.66%-99.67%1.38 0.26-0.13 0.16 0.00 136.68%-29.00%36.55%0.33%1.34-0.67-0.36-0.01 0.00%85.82%-45.42%-0.53%1.29-0.30 0.08-0.49 0.00%23.38%6.15%-38.39%1.28-0.43 0.00%0.00%0.00%-33.79%1.20 0.00-0.03 0.22-0.49 0.82%-2.64%18.70%-40.56%0.94-0.23-0.24 0.00%0.00%109.35%-25.87%0.91 0.03 0.28 0.97-1.32 9.68%30.59%106.29%-144.59%0.90 0.10 0.33 0.17-0.58 26.11%52.47%25.94%-64.07%0.82-2.57-1.25 0.00%0.00%314.87%-153.25%0.74-0.15-0.18 0.00%0.00%55.36%-24.23%0.72-0.03 0.25 0.51-0.30-4.96%48.93%71.38%-42.30%0.63 0.21 0.09 0.57-0.18 33.66%14.21%90.37%-29.10%0.59 0.30-0.02-0.17-0.17 81.10%-3.43%-28.07%-28.07%0.58 0.87 0.91 0.81-0.56 217.89%226.69%140.92%-97.77%0.43-0.08 0.51-0.48 0.00%35.73%118.78%-111.03%0.42-0.10-0.06-0.09 0.00%22.70%-13.19%-21.42%0.40-0.93 0.31-0.90 0.00%233.92%77.18%-225.57%0.34-0.48 0.39-0.24 0.00%140.72%113.24%-70.30%0.33-1.13 0.33 0.00%0.00%346.79%101.49%0.29-0.28 1.28-0.53 0.00%95.26%439.65%-182.12%0.29-0.70 2.08 1.44 0.00%243.34%724.64%500.47%0.25-0.58 0.02 0.00%0.00%230.58%7.34%0.19-0.07-0.06-0.03 0.00%34.15%-31.87%-15.55%0.17-0.37-0.16 0.00%0.00%220.31%-98.37%258.68 26.14 123.16 121.54-78.90 82.49%110.43%65.97%-30.50%wind 2022 10/28 8 2019-2022 wind:2022 10/28-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%(100)(50)0501001502019 2020 2021 2022%+12 2.1.2.2019 2020 2021 6 2021.12.10 2022.1.6 2022.1.17 2022 2022.1.28 2022 2022.2.18,2022.3.5 2022 2022 2022.4.9 2022.5.31 2022.6.25 2022.7.22 2022.7.29 2022.8.1 2022.10.25 2022.10.29 IPO IPO CR3 2015 24.8%2022 45.19%CR5 2015 +13 39.7%2022 57.4%CR10 2015 63.0%2022 74.3%IPO 9 2015-2022 IPO wind 2019 7 18.93 15.18 8.07 8.67 260 483 149 483 20 50 100 30 11 8 11.54%4.23%3.08%20 50 100 89 17 6 18.43%3.52%1.24%IPO 260 IPO 483 A 10 2019 7 wind:2022/10/28 11 2019 7 12 2019 7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%010002000300040005000600070002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202122 IPO CR3 CR5 CR10020406080100=20=50=100 +14 wind:2022/10/28 wind:2022/10/28 2.2.2023 2.2.1.A 2022 10 31 7/2019/1/23 2019/3/1 2020/6/18 2021/7/16 2022/1/7 2022/5/13 2022/5/13 X 2022/7/15 2022/9/16 8 2022/10/13 6 2022/10/28 2022/10/31 0100200300400500600-2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20()0%5%10%15%20%=20=50=100 +15 A A A 8-U 14 42 42 50 22 2 3 4 2 36 1 +16 5 5 3260.32 2679.20 2595.16 A 13 14 wind wind 2.2.2./ETF 12 9 ETF 50ETF 500ETF 300ETF 300ETF 500ETF 0500100015002000250030003500 0123456+17 10 2022 5 10 5 2 500 1000 300 50 ETF 50ETF 300 1000 300()500ETF 300ETF()300ETF()500ETF 2022 7 22 1000 300 50 500 1000 300 500 A 1000 A 300 500 2022 10 IF IC IH IM 2,228 1,233 2,256 372 IF IC IH IM 78.62 15 2011-2022/(1-10)16 2011-2022/(1-10)wind:2022 10 wind:2022 10 17 2011-2022/10 0501001502002503003504004502011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300 IF 50 IH 500 IC 1000 IM05000100001500020000250003000035000400002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 300 IF 50 IH 500 IC 1000 IM+18 wind 2015 2 9 50ETF ETF 2015 0.23 2019 5.65 2019 12 23 300ETF 2021 10.97 2019 94.15%2021 50ETF 300ETF 6.29 4.68 2022 9 500ETF ETF 2016 2 53.3 2022 10 480.5 2021 500.4 54.24 18 2015-2021()19 2016/02-2022/10()2021 1000 300 22 10 213.40 1000 22 10 144.75 7 769.05%300 22 10 18.11 1000 22 10 6.88 7 188.35%1000 0102030405060708090 300 IF 50 IH 500 IC 1000 IM0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 50ETF 50ETF 300ETF 300ETF 01002003004005006002016/022016/062016/102017/022017/062017/102018/022018/062018/102019/022019/062019/102020/022020/062020/102021/022021/062021/102022/022022/062022/10 50ETF 300ETF 500ETF +19 1000 22 9 ETF 500ETF 20 19-22 IO MO 21 19-22 IO MO wind wind 50ETF 2021 75.6%39.1%36.6%2021 8.9%54.7%36.4%22 2016-2021()23 2016-2021()2021 2021 ETF ETF 500ETF 500ETF ETF 500ETF 500ETF 2022 9 19 1000 22 10 500ETF 63.2-50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450IO MO-5 10 15 20 25IO MO 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 +20 1 A A 2 3 2.2.3.2020 9 A A B BBB 2021 2022 11 2 8 2 11 2022 10 +21 1 2021 12 100%25%2 2021 47727.35 2020 21551.07 121.46%36310.66 2020 26045.99 39.41%2021 12 10260.67 5210.83 96.91%9906.5 7569.7 30.87%24 2018/01-2022/01 25 2018/01-2022/01 wind wind 26 2018/12-2022/01 27 2018/12-2022/01 wind wind 2.3.01000200030004000500060002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/010500100015002000250030003500400045002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/010200040006000800010000120002018/122019/022019/042019/062019/082019/102019/122020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/12 0200040006000800010000120002018/122019/022019/042019/062019/082019/102019/122020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/12 +22 A C/0.11 0.23 0.24 0.48 0.37 0.34 28 21Q1-22Q3 wind 29 21Q1-22Q3 0102030405060708021 21 21 21 22 22 22 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.60/+23 wind 1 2 3 8 14 3.3.1.Fintech 2015-2021 3.78%2.23%70 15 30 31 wind wind 0%1%2%3%4%5%0510152025 0%5%10%15%20%05000100001500020000250002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 +24 3.1.1.A 槃 2018 2019 5 2019 2021 D 2021 7 15 100%500 200 32 12 +25 3 3 3 500 200 5 ROI 13 1 2003163 2013/8/18 2 2009299 2009/4/10 3 2013143 2013/2/6 4 201517 2015/9/18 5 20165 2016/4/14 6 2016847 2016/4/18 7 20175 2017/3/16 8 20181681 2018/10/23 +26 9 20152649 2015/12/31 10 2015425 2015/12/28 11 20163746 2016/5/10 12 20166501 2016/8/15 13 20166998 2016/9/20 14 2014598 2014/10/10 15 2016326 2016/11/3 16 2016/6/27 17 2018/1/31 5 30 APP 3.1.2.Fintech 2014 2020 2022 8 14 10 14 2014 40 2014 100%2015 4 2016 2016 +27 2017 22 2017 2020 6 2020 8 15%2021 1 2022 7 28 2022 8 14 10 22 9 91.96 152.62 20 4 33 34 +28 2022 7 21 15 1 2 3 4 5 AI 6 2021 0501001502002017/092017/112018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/09 +29 OEM 21 3540.4 22.2%22 1948.2 51.9%35 C 3.1.3.app 2021 2021 3.47 2020 0.88 2.59 25.17%36 050010001500200025003000350040002019H 2020H 2021H 2022H 2019 2020 2021+30 2021 6 21 CEO App 200 App 1300 22Q3 APP 34.5 App 37 0501001502002502017/092017/112018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/09 +31 16 2015 2017 4 11 2000 2019 1 2019 8 2019 2021 3 1996 2020 4 2022 2 APP 2022 5 1 App 2022 App 3.2.+3.2.1.+1995 2002 2015 11 2019 CFO A 2019 5 2022 6 17 +32 51 A CLSAB.V.55 45 51 52 47 B 45 45 51 2022 332.55 69.8%230.8 38.9%98.2 237%2021 2.81 2020 476 5802%2020 19 10 +33 38 2020 2 7 2020 4 21 21 15.03 182%102.63 92%6.83 2021 0.89 1248%39 40 18 2021 2020 4 102.63 15.03 6.83 2020 10 195.11 72.21 2.70 2020 8 83 15 5.53-55 4.6 11.96 2020 9 30 9.5 3.16 2020 9-9.18-0501001502002503003502020 2020 2021 2021 2022 0204060801001202020.6 2020.12 2021.6 2021.12-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%01020304050607080901002019 2020 2021 +34 1 2022 9 20 A 22 2 51%3 3.2.2.2006 70.46%PE 2017 IPO 2021 226.28 23 2021 41 2002 2006 2007 2010 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017 IPO 2019 2021 +35 2021 GDP 73515.76 5.2 2021 1 600 19.2 10.5%42 GDP 43 wind wind 2021 506 45.4%445 32.4%48.1%2021 2022 443 44 2021 0123456789010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021GDP%1.381.391.401.411.421.431.44012345672014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022h +36 2017 30 20 3.2.3.2001 2016 2022 6 50.15%45 wind 2012 1742 2021 11368 5.5 8 1 200 2 400 3 10 0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401602006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 19 17-21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 31 29 28 27 24 36 35 34 32 30 22 24 29 24 23 29 19 22 15 16 22 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 16 16 30 35 40 19 17 +37 1200 4 1423 2016 100 2021 149 46 2021 wind 2019 2021 11.45 7.1%4.38 35.3%2.02 2018 154.1%2021 186.34 34 14.24 33 3336 20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 27.34 11.57 8.78 6.14 7.7 10.68 11.45 0.75 0.9 1.17 1.89 2.03 3.24 4.38 4.77-0.26 1.36 1.92 8.01 6.73 6.1 1.24 0.42 0.59 0.94 4.14 5.96 5.29 0.80 0.50 0.91 0.79 1.91 1.53 2.02 05001,0001,5002,0002,500 21 17-21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 44 41 40 39 36 37 36 38 41 34 43 42 34 36 36 35 31 23 30 33 +38 4.+2022 11 8 II PB 1.12x 2017 0.9%ROE 18 ROE 2018 ROE PB 2018 47 2017/01-2022/10 II PB wind 48 2021/01-2022/11 PB 11 9 Wind 1 10 CPI 7.7%7.9%8.2%0.3%0.5%0.6%CPI 6.3%6.5%6.6%12 50bp 2 11 5 22.5 22 0.7 10 29 149.3 147.5 0.8 1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.4()801193.SI 2017-0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.301.21.41.61.82.02.2PB +39 3 7+3 5+3 7 7 A A A A+H 4Q21 1Q22 II PB 17 0.9%1(600030)(601995)2(600145)(601878)(600909)(600095)5.1 2 3 +40 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告