20231119_东方证券_银行行业2024年度投资策略：债务成本压力释放下的基本面筑底之年_33页.pdf
|24 1 23Q4 3%2024 2 23 2024 3 23Q3 1 2 23H1 3 4 23H1 22bps 1 LPR 2024 14-15bps 2 24Q2-Q3 1 2024 EVA 2 2024 TLAC 2024 TLAC 2.2 24 24 1 2 2015/2023 11 19 S0860523060001 10 2023-11-14 A 23Q3 2023-11-08 2023-11-02 2024 2“”5 1.1.5 1.2“”.6 1.3.9 12 2.1.12 2.2.14 2.3.16 2.4.17 19 3.1 14-15bp.19 3.2 24Q2-Q3.22.24 4.1 2024.24 4.2.25 4.3 2024 TLAC 2.2.26.28.31 WUCXwPtOsRoPpRmPnQpQpOaQaO7NtRoOmOtQfQnMrQkPpNpPbRpOqMMYoMmNMYsQtP 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 6.7 7.7 8 M1 M2.8 9 1-10.8 10.9 11.9 12.10 13.10 14 10.10 15.10 16 PPI.12 17.12 18.12 19.13 20.13 21.13 22.14 23.15 24 PSL.15 25.15 26.16 27 11 10.16 28 23H1.17 29%.17 30 23H1.18 31%.19 32%.19 33%.20 34.22 4 35%.23 36.24 37 RMBS.24 38.26 39%.26 40.28 41 PB LF.28 42.29 43 PB-ROE.30 44 11 17.31 1 2023.10 2 2023.14 3.20 4.21 5 EVA.21 6 23H1.22 7.25 8 2024 TLAC.27 9 23H1.30 5 1.1 2023 4-9 6 10 1 2 Wind Wind 10 24 60%2027 1 3%3.8%2024 3 4 Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08 0.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 2024 2024 2024 1.2 5 9 9%5 Wind 1 2-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%7 6 Wind 7 Wind 10 M1 M2 4 M1 M2-M1 M2-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,000 6065707580859095 8 8 M1 M2 Wind 9 1-10 Wind 2022-23Q3 2022 7.9 22Q4 1.5 2023 2024 23Q3-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018-022018-042018-062018-082018-102018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10M2-M1 M1 M2-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9 10 Wind 1.3 1 4 5 7 10 10 9-10 11 Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%2022-03 2022-06 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09 1.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.50%DR007 R007 7 10 12 13 Wind Wind 3 9 6 8 9 1 2023 OMO MLF 1Y LPR 5Y LPR 2023/3/17 25bp 25bp 2023/6/13 10bp 2023/6/15 10bp 2023/6/20 10bp 10bp 2023/8/15 10bp 15bp 2023/8/21 10bp 2023/9/14 25bp 25bp Wind 2023 11 13 14 10 15 Wind Wind-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,000（亿元）1.501.802.102.402.703.00-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,000%6M-300-200-10001002003001.002.003.004.005.006.00 bp%10Y 10Y 90951001051101151205.806.006.206.406.606.807.007.207.40 11 10 2024 12 2.1 PPI 10 6 2.8pct PPI PPI 3-6 2020 7 2022 5 7 1.6%16 PPI Wind 9 11.9%9 5.62%0.6pct 17 18 Wind Wind-10-50510152025%PPI-30-20-10010202022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09%234567812 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2%2020 2021 2022 2023 13 2020 23H1 1.65%22 14bp 19 Wind 4 10 7.6%2.1pct 20 21 Wind Wind 23H1 0.86%22 6bp 23H1 22 11bp 36bp 2023 7 1 1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-8-40481216Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1%2020 2021 2022 2023-20-100102030402020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09%14 22 Wind 2.2 11 2 2023/2023/1/10 2023/1/17 2023/2/27 CMBS ABS 2023/3/1 2023/4/28 2023/7/21 2023/8/25 2023/8/31 9 25 2023/10/31 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 15 23 24 PSL Wind Wind 23H1 2.06%22 1bp 23H1 22 200 4%-6%0.45%2022 2bp 25-20-10010203040502018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-07%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002014-122015-082016-042016-122017-082018-042018-122019-082020-042020-122021-082022-042022-122023-08 23H1 22A 23H1 22A 23H1 22A 21A 22A 23H1国有行 7669 416 512 67 6.68%0.54%8329 622 396 60 4.76%0.40%8927 525 517 56 5.79%0.31%8454 713 432-128 5.11%-2.12%2433 323 25-6 1.01%-0.44%507-13 17 3 3.39%0.59%股份行 3559-203 196 43 5.52%1.44%4361 5.53%4.57%4.06%4055 494 33-13 0.81%-0.49%6310 6.18%5.97%6.38%2833 60 150 64 5.29%2.21%3697 4.94%4.37%4.18%2759-76 28-13 1.01%-0.42%3099 6.93%6.08%5.63%3175-46 91-7 2.88%-0.18%3820 188 196 41 5.13%0.85%1724-62 73 3 4.22%0.33%944-104 36 6 3.77%0.95%城商行 宁波银行 961 119 3-1 0.28%-0.13%江苏银行 954 61 20 3 2.13%0.21%苏州银行 140 41 4 0 3.20%-1.35%南京银行 526 33 6 1 1.05%0.09%杭州银行 365-31 14 0 3.85%0.40%成都银行 383 65 8 1 2.17%-0.23%长沙银行 121 12 未披露 未披露农商行 渝农商行 35-9 3 0 9.10%1.82%沪农商行 1048 43 19 5 1.78%0.40%瑞丰银行 19 7 未披露 未披露常熟银行 21 2 未披露 未披露59187 3180 2,702 186 4.57%0.08%银行类型/23H1 16 26 Wind 2.3 2023 7 24 9 663 2020 12 2021 10 11 10 27 82 10156 27 11 10 Wind 11 10 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%2023H1 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 02468100200400600800100012001400 17 23H1 22 23bp 1bp 28 23H1 Wind 2.4 23Q3 1.61%22 2bp 207.9%29%Wind 22A 22A 22A 22A 450-36 385 30 1.82%-0.52%0.90%-0.01%354 38 411 53 1.70%-0.08%0.81%0.01%15 6 38 8 0.83%0.21%0.30%0.04%80-11 141-1 1.00%-0.24%0.83%-0.07%15-3 17 1 0.82%-0.28%0.20%0.00%41-65 9-7 0.76%-1.39%0.13%-0.12%54 16 9-8 0.95%0.23%0.20%-0.22%19 1 17-4 0.61%-0.08%0.32%-0.11%24 4 36 1 0.53%0.07%1.27%0.02%7 1 5 0 0.30%0.01%0.27%-0.07%8 4 1 0 0.33%0.16%0.07%0.02%58 7 11 10 2.46%0.00%1.14%1.05%1-1 2 0 0.05%-0.08%0.21%-0.01%2 0 2 2 0.17%-0.05%0.08%0.08%4 0 0 0 0.22%-0.05%0.02%0.00%0 0 2-7 0.07%-0.01%0.24%-1.14%4 4 1 0 0.71%0.67%0.19%0.01%0 0 0 0 0.13%-0.10%0.08%-0.01%3 0 0 0 0.44%-0.07%0.04%-0.02%2 2 14 14 0.20%0.20%1.06%1.06%4 1 1-4 0.39%0.12%0.54%-3.33%2 0 1 0 0.82%-0.13%0.49%0.19%1,148-31 1,105 91 1.25%-0.23%0.68%-0.01%23H1 23H10501001502002503000.000.501.001.502.002.502014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09 18 7 1 23H1 23Q3 10bp 30 23H1 Wind-30-20-10010203040500.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%bp 23H1 19 2023 13.4pct Q3 GDP LPR 31%Wind 3.1 14-15bp 2024 14-15bp 23H1 2022 18bp 23H1 23Q1 23Q3 23H1 3-4bp 32%Wind 1301351401451501551601651701750102030405060702014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09 1.001.502.002.503.003.502017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-05 20 1 5bp 2023 10 21 5000 22 0.73 4.7bp 3 2023 9 341 22 bp 73 bp-4.71-1606 Wind 2 7-8bp 1 13 60-70 wind 57 wind 13 2017 7 14 3-5 2019 2018 25%13 33%Wind 2 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002010-012010-072011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-07 21 6%4%7-8bp 7bp 4 13 6.0%4.0%bp-7.6 Wind EVA 5 30bp RORWA 5 EVA 4.76%1.42%1.42%6.34%25.00%1.75%1.87%6.14%1.42%1.83%6.34%25.00%1.75%2.82%3.80%1.42%1.13%6.34%25.00%1.75%1.20%2.72%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.58%Wind wind 5 3 LPR 2bp 2023 6 5 LPR 10bp 23H1 2024-4bp 2023 1 4 2022 9 2 6 2 3 5 10bp 3 9 1 2 3 5 10bp 20bp 25bp 25bp 1 4 2022 9 3 15bp 10bp 2 23H1 2024 1.7bp 2024-2.2bp 22 6 23H1/3 3 1 1 5 5 0.6%33.7%57.7%6.0%2.0%1.7%56.3%20.1%21.8%0.1%LPR BP-3.9 2023 BP 26 BP 1.7 BP-2.2 wind 3.2 24Q2-Q3 2023 1 2023 2023 2018 5 2024 2024 34 Wind 2 2024 LPR 20%24%28%32%36%40%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002015-12 2016-12 2017-12 2018-12 2019-12 2020-12 2021-12 2022-12 2023-06 23 35%Wind 24Q2-Q3 10 PPI PMI 2025 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002008-122009-052009-102010-032010-082011-012011-062011-112012-042012-092013-022013-072013-122014-052014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-02 24 4.1 2024 9.3%2023 5 9 10.9%2024 23Q3 10 1 3%3.8%2024”2024 2023 2023 9 RMBS 2024 36 37 RMBS Wind Wind 2023 11 2024 1 1 2012 2023 2-10010203040500100,000200,000300,000400,000500,0002011-032011-122012-092013-062014-032014-122015-092016-062017-032017-122018-092019-062020-032020-122021-092022-062023-03%0.000.050.100.150.200.25 25 72.5%8.2%23H1 1.4pct 0.3pct 7%10%-10.00-0.97 4%0.00 0.00 25%-5.00-1.27 12%-3.00-0.37 27%-1.00-0.27 2%25.00 0.40 2%-5.00-0.08 2%15.00 0.32 ABS 0.7%0.00 0.00 0.5%15.00 0.07 15.8%5.00 0.79-1.37+0.3pct Wind 4.2 100%150%1 2 3 EVA 50pct 70bp 26 38 2021 2 2023 2 11.39%Wind 4.3 2024 TLAC 2.2 TLAC TLAC 2024 TLAC 2015 G-SIBs G-SIBs TLAC 2021 10 2022 4 TLAC TLAC 1 2.5%TLAC TLAC 24.6%5.7%25.7%34.6%5.1%4.3%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.002023-012023-012023-022023-022023-032023-032023-032023-042023-042023-052023-052023-062023-062023-072023-072023-082023-082023-082023-092023-092023-102023-102023-111YAAA-/1Y 3YAAA-/3Y 5YAAA-/5Y 27 TLAC TLAC TLAC G-SIBs 2019 2025 16%6%2022 2028 18%6.75%2024 TLAC 2.2 1 2024 2019-2022 2 2024 23Q3 1pct 3 30%4 5 2018-2021 2022 1.68 2024 5400 2024 TLAC 2.2 TLAC 8 2024 TLAC 2024 RWA 6.0%9.4%5.9%8.6%2.1%4.3%2.0%6.0%904 0.4%0.4%0.5%0.4%2023 11 16 7650 2024 TLAC 16840 2024 5400 2024 TLAC 22240 Wind 28 2023 11 17 0.7%300-7.8%PB LF 10%-19.3%PB LF 0.46 2019 1%40 Wind 300 41 PB LF Wind 2024 2023 2023 2024 2023 24Q2-Q3 2023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 0.300.400.500.600.700.80 29 23H1 22bp 42 Wind 1 2024 2 3 23Q3 4 2023 ROE(600919)(002142)(002966)(600926)0204060801001201400123456789%:30 9 23H1 36.02%26.03%29.18%23.62%32.89%26.14%34.01%20.16%18.48%21.61%32.13%39.83%15.85%41.52%23.10%31.61%22.67%15.49%21.06%23.73%23.55%47.21%22.94%36.17%2.52%31.28%31.38%23.58%18.59%21.62%18.40%32.01%21.60%21.81%9.15%12.53%22.25%25.82%10.69%10.43%13.94%8.33%Wind 43 PB-ROE Wind PB LF 11 17 ROE 23Q3 6810121416180.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 31 6%6.5%H 8%-9%1 2 250%2015(601288)(601988)(601398)(601939)44 11 17 Wind 1 2 3 五、投资策略 回顾202Table_Disclai mer 0.002.004.006.008.0010.00%32 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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