20231116_海通证券_基础化工行业2024年度策略：关注化工龙头及高壁垒新材料_24页.pdf

2024 S0850515040001 S0850518030001 S0850517110003 S0850519110003 S0850522080002 2023 11 16 1.2.3.4.2 YWAZyRtOoNpOsMsRmRpQmN8ObP8OpNqQoMpMjMoPoPiNrQpQ6MoPpPuOsQrRNZtOmR 23 GDP 4.9%PMI 20 11 23 8-9 50%PMI%GDP:%WIND WIND 3-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.002006-032007-032008-032009-032010-032011-032012-032013-032014-032015-032016-032017-032018-032019-032020-032021-032022-032023-03303540455055602006-042007-042008-042009-042010-042011-042012-042013-042014-042015-042016-042017-042018-042019-042020-042021-042022-042023-04 23 GDP 2.38%0.5 0.7 23 9 PMI 49%1.9 1.4 23 GDP 0.1%4.1 1.3 23 9 PMI 43.4%5 0.1 GDP PMI%GDP PMI%WIND WIND 4-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-01PMI GDP-20-15-10-5051015200.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002006-012006-122007-112008-102009-092010-082011-072012-062013-052014-042015-032016-022017-012017-122018-112019-102020-092021-082022-072023-06PMI GDP 23 9-6.2%23 9 PMI 47.8%0.8 1.1 23 7-9 2.5%4.6%5.5%PMI%WIND WIND 5-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002005-012005-122006-112007-102008-092009-082010-072011-062012-052013-042014-032015-022016-012016-122017-112018-102019-092020-082021-072022-062023-05:0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.00-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00:PMI:2023 9 23.4%7.5%30%23 2107 8.22%628 37.51%23 30%WIND WIND 6-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.002014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-07-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.0005001000150020002500300035002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 09%23 7-9-8.3%-8.9%-8.8%21.2 20.5 18.2-11.9%-11.2%-10.3%23.8 21.4 19 2022 6%WIND WIND 7-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00:0200400600800100012001400160018002000CBOT/CBOT/CBOT/%WIND 8 2023 8 0.8%-5051015202530352011-022011-072011-122012-052012-102013-032013-082014-012014-062014-112015-042015-092016-022016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-089 23 13.5%3.8%WIND-60-40-200204060802018-022018-042018-062018-082018-102018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-08 23 23 PPI%WIND 10-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 1.2.3.4.11 2021 SEMI 2021 643 15.9%2021 404 239 15.5%16.5%SEMI 12-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%01002003004005006007002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0510152025302012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2021 A SEMI 2020 34.98%13.01%12.29%7.61%2020 2021 A SEMI 13,8%,7%,6%,6%,2%,35%,13%,12%,11%80%85%60%10%14 15,90%16 2021 11.8 10.4%34 3.3 1.85 1.65 28%15.7%14.0%17 2021 2021,28.0%,15.7%,14.0%,9.3%,9.0%,8.1%,7.2%,3.6%,1.7%,1.3%,0.9%,1.4%,16.3%,15.0%,34.9%,7.8%,6.7%,6.0%,5.4%,3.0%,1.6%,1.2%,0.9%,1.1%18 1.2.3.4.19 EPS/PE（2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 600309.SH 84.96 5.17 5.71 7.31 16.43 14.88 11.62 600426.SH 30.48 2.96 2.10 2.89 10.30 14.51 10.55 600873.SH 9.41 1.45 1.10 1.33 6.49 8.55 7.08 002749.SZ 10.89 0.26 0.67 0.79 41.88 16.25 13.78 300285.SZ 25.2 0.50 0.68 0.90 50.40 37.06 28.00 688300.SH 48.9 1.51 1.06 1.40 32.38 46.13 34.93 WIND 2023 11 9 WIND 20 1.2.3.4.21 22 SAC S0850515040001 0755-82764281 Email SAC S0850517110003 021-23154130 Email SAC S0850518030001 021-23219431 Email 23 SAC S0850519110003 021-23219392 Email SAC S0850522080002 021-23219646 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%24