20231106_国信证券_农业证券研究报告：大宗农产品投资分析框架-白糖_33页.pdf

|2023 11 05 021-S0980520110002 021-S0980523030001 010-国际糖价分析框架 国内糖价分析框架 相关标的 风险因素 2XVFUvMqNoNoPrPnOmRrOnM6MbPaQmOpPsQnOkPnMoPfQqQqO6MqQyQwMmQtQxNoNpP 01 02 03 04 21/22 1.80 10 CAGR 0.45%21/22 1.74 10 CAGR 0.84%10 CAGR 0.45%10 CAGR 0.84%USDA USDA 2019 2019 4-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05000010000015000020000025000019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%02000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:yoy USDA 2022 11 21/22 1.80 3688 3545 1645 1016 960 829 20.5%19.7%9.1%5.6%5.3%4.6%USDA 2022 11 21/22 2595 38.25%21/22 1173 1000 17.3%14.7%2022 11 21/22 548 36.4%21/22 547 331 71.9%28.8%21/22 CR3 49.2%21/22 CR3 70.3%USDA USDA 2019 2019 5 20.45%19.66%27 9.14%5.63%5.32%4.60%35.21%38.25%17.29%14.74%4.60%2.62%22.50%+/6 USDA USDA USDA 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:(5,000)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022:1-6 12-18 4 4 5-8 7 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 260.00 260.00 10.00 350.00 950.00 750.00 850.00 920.00 220.00 590.00 340.00 340.00 690.00 36,150.00 38,600.00 37,800.00 35,950.00 34,650.00 39,150.00 38,870.00 29,500.00 30,300.00 42,050.00 35,450.00 38,050.00 42,010.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,800.00 27,650.00 26,200.00 23,950.00 24,350.00 28,500.00 28,500.00 19,600.00 19,280.00 32,150.00 25,950.00 28,200.00 32,398.00 11,500.00 11,200.00 11,260.00 11,400.00 10,500.00 10,550.00 10,600.00 10,600.00 10,650.00 10,150.00 9,500.00 9,500.00 9,542.00 260.00 10.00 350.00 950.00 750.00 850.00 850.00 220.00 590.00 340.00 340.00 690.00 760.00 USDA 1-3 10 4 1 3000 8 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 6,299 7,163 9,373 8,227 10,607 9,294 6,570 14,214 17,614 14,614 13,213 9,506 6,506 28,620 27,337 26,605 30,460 27,385 22,200 34,309 34,300 28,900 33,760 36,880 32,000 36,000 188 1,722 1,078 1,000 1,902 2,701 2,071 1,300 900 1,245 340 1,000 1,000 3,764 1,261 2,806 2,580 3,800 2,125 2,236 4,700 5,800 8,406 11,927 6,500 7,000 24,180 25,588 26,023 26,500 26,800 25,500 26,500 27,500 27,000 28,000 29,000 29,500 31,000 7,163 9,373 8,227 10,607 9,294 6,570 14,214 17,614 14,614 13,213 9,506 6,506 5,506 USDA A 1000 9 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2,983.00 2,810.00 3,616.00 5,254.00 5,263.00 5,281.00 5,618.00 6,841.00 8,330.00 7,569.00 9,067.00 9,212.00 6,152.00 10,235.00 10,024.00 11,333.00 10,793.00 9,743.00 10,033.00 14,710.00 14,581.00 8,294.00 7,587.00 10,157.00 11,040.00 11,200.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6,642.00 6,693.00 7,200.00 8,252.00 7,055.00 7,016.00 7,016.00 10,612.00 6,695.00 3,739.00 7,012.00 11,000.00 12,000.00 2,510.00 2,525.00 2,495.00 2,532.00 2,670.00 2,680.00 2,580.00 2,480.00 2,360.00 2,350.00 3,000.00 3,100.00 3,210.00 2,810.00 3,616.00 5,254.00 5,263.00 5,281.00 5,618.00 5,618.00 8,330.00 7,569.00 9,067.00 9,212.00 6,152.00 2,142.00 USDA 22/23 1490 1468 40%1700 200-300 10 27 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 1,974.00 3,303.00 3,836.00 3,066.00 4,151.00 791.00 1,776.00 1,547.00 1,260.00 2,076.00 1,106.00 1,384.00 1,370.00 18,320.00 16,655.00 16,020.00 18,449.00 14,283.00 15,505.00 19,508.00 16,750.00 17,040.00 15,216.00 16,497.00 14,899.00 15,475.00 3,552.00 3,790.00 3,262.00 2,918.00 3,055.00 2,908.00 1,612.00 2,374.00 2,235.00 1,792.00 1,999.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 1,113.00 1,662.00 1,552.00 1,582.00 1,548.00 1,987.00 1,987.00 2,411.00 1,459.00 1,278.00 1,218.00 913.00 905.00 18,200.00 18,250.00 18,500.00 18,700.00 18,700.00 15,441.00 17,000.00 17,000.00 17,000.00 16,700.00 17,000.00 17,000.00 17,000.00 3,303.00 3,836.00 3,066.00 4,151.00 1,241.00 1,776.00 1,776.00 1,260.00 2,076.00 1,106.00 1,384.00 1,370.00 1,440.00 USDA 22/23 842 468 1100 300 830-840 11 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 1,250.00 1,795.00 1,958.00 1,642.00 1,647.00 1,863.00 1,702.00 1,822.00 1,618.00 1,468.00 1,547.00 1,652.00 1,573.00 7,700.00 8,148.00 7,676.00 7,853.00 8,155.00 8,137.00 8,430.00 8,164.00 7,392.00 8,376.00 8,307.00 8,420.00 8,369.00 3,294.00 2,925.00 3,395.00 3,223.00 3,031.00 2,943.00 2,972.00 2,785.00 3,778.00 2,922.00 3,308.00 3,126.00 2,994.00 225.00 249.00 278.00 168.00 67.00 86.00 86.00 32.00 55.00 45.00 26.00 32.00 32.00 10,205.00 10,661.00 11,109.00 10,903.00 10,903.00 11,155.00 11,128.00 11,121.00 11,265.00 11,174.00 11,484.00 11,593.00 11,594.00 1,795.00 1,958.00 1,642.00 1,647.00 1,863.00 1,702.00 1,702.00 1,618.00 1,468.00 1,547.00 1,652.00 1,573.00 1,310.00 USDA-70 A C 80%60%C 500 12 55%-65%FAO UNICA Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 0.000020.000040.000060.000080.0000100.0000120.0000140.0000160.00000510152025303540():NYBOT 11():IPE Wind 132019 2019 0510152025303540012345671995-01-031996-01-031997-01-031998-01-031999-01-032000-01-032001-01-032002-01-032003-01-032004-01-032005-01-032006-01-032007-01-032008-01-032009-01-032010-01-032011-01-032012-01-032013-01-032014-01-032015-01-032016-01-032017-01-032018-01-032019-01-032020-01-032021-01-032022-01-032023-01-03():NYBOT 112019 2019 14 iFinD FAO USDA IMF 15 01 02 03 04 2023 10 CASDE 21/22 956 1540 533 35%21/22 870 86 91%9%2020 7413 1597 1367 68.56%14.77%12.64%17 20/21 68.6%Wind 85.57%14.43%7,412 1,597 1,367 436 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010002000300040005000600070008000 2020 OECD 2020 1581 2010-2020 CAGR 1.5%2020 11.20 18 FAO USDA-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000:yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020:yoy OECD OECD OECD 2020 1581 2010-2020 CAGR 1.5%2020 11.20 2019 2019-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000:yoy05101520251990 1990 1990 19901991 1991 19911992 1992 1992 19921993 1993 19931994 1994 19941995 1995 1995 19951996 1996 19961997 1997 19971998 1998 1998 19981999 1999 19992000 2000 20002001 2001 2001 20012002 2002 20022003 2003 20032004 2004 2004 20042005 2005 20052006 2006 20062007 2007 2007 20072008 2008 20082009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 20102011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 20122013 2013 20132014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 20162017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019-20/21 41%USDA OECD 20/21 490 634 40.90%2004 194.5 70%15%50%2019 2019 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01000200030004000500060007000:82.80%4.10%3.70%2.90%1.80%1.60%1.60%1.50%2019 2019 21 22 iFinD FAO USDA IMF 23 01 02 03 04 2023 10 1 23/24+14%+4.08pcts+24%3261 23Q4-24Q1 10 25 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 23 5 23 5 51,574 52,871 47,702 47,372 39,465 179,158 166,559 180,583 177,279 187,881 53,320 53,804 56,105 57,527 59,012 58,140 53,424 64,955 66,085 72,104 172,240 171,427 173,661 176,007 180,045 52,871 47,702 47,372 39,465 33,455 90.94%89.29%72.93%59.72%46.40%USDA iFinD 0510152025302020-01-02 2020-07-02 2021-01-02 2021-07-02 2022-01-02 2022-07-02 2023-01-02 2023-07-02 11-/26 9 44 50.56%/iFinD iFinD 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000051015202530 11-3,000.00-2,000.00-1,000.000.001,000.002,000.00(3,000)(2,000)(1,000)01,0002,000:(,50%):(,50%):2021/222022/23(10)2023/24(9)2023/24(10)/59.8 57.1 60.1 60.1 68.6 60 66.4 66.4 51 54.2 53.9 53.9 956 897 1000 1000 870 789 890 890 86 108 110 110 533 380 500 500 1540 1560 1570 1570 16 18 14 14-67-301-84-84 01 02 03 04 iFinD iFinD 1 2 28(10)(5)051015202530354001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002000 2000 2000 2000 20002001 2001 2001 2001 20012002 2002 2002 2002 20022003 2003 2003 2003 20032004 2004 2004 2004 20042005 2005 2005 20052006 2006 2006 2006 20062007 2007 2007 2007 20072008 2008 2008 2008 20082009 2009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 2010 20102011 2011 2011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 2012 20122013 2013 2013 2013 20132014 2014 2014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019 2019 20192020 2020 2020 2020:-%-%0510152025303501,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000():/:)2021 110.9 1.33%251.6 19.1%5.2 1.8%+B2B 2020 66%22%+21%iFinD iFinD 29(100)01002003002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 344.73 41.93 50.37 4.59 7.4%4.4%2021 5.63 82.88 3.2 4%2021 76.98 7.57 5.8pct 92.9%2021 134 93 31%4344 3833 12%332 14990 iFinD iFinD 3005101520253035402019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2019 2020 2021 2022 31 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032