20230226_银河证券_轻工行业证券研究报告：地产产业链预期回暖关注家居龙头315兑现_21页.pdf

table_research 2023 2 26 table_main 315 02.20-02.24 23 2 24 30 10.48%11.85%14 19.28%86.26%23 23 315&2 24 1,702 3,169 4,273/1.05%1.27%1.32%2 24 5,851 7,075 5,400/1.83%1.2%0.15%6,725 5,800 5,170/0%0.35%-0.39%1,000/&C B 8610 80926000 chenbairu_ S0130521080001 2023-02-24 i F i n D-30%-20%-10%0%10%2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01 300/2.3.3.3.4.4 1.4 2.5.7 1.7 2.8 3.9.11.11.12.12.13.14.17 XVBYuNtOtQpOsMoNnQtMnM9PcM8OtRnNmOoNjMmMmOlOoMrO6MpPwPuOrQvNMYpOqN/3 300 0.66%3.38%31 4 5.28%4.83%1.22%0.57%1.300 2.i F i n D i F i n D 3.i F i n D 5(+20.13%)(+18.05%)(+17.48%)(+12.99%)(+11.43%)5(-8.7%)(-6.83%)(-6.02%)(-4.17%)(-3.33%)-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%300-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%02-20 02-21 02-22 02-23 02-24包装印刷 家居用品造纸 文娱用品-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%煤炭钢铁家用电器轻工制造国防军工通信农林牧渔建筑装饰机械设备建筑材料纺织服饰计算机综合石油石化有色金属汽车非银金融银行房地产基础化工公用事业环保电力设备交通运输电子商贸零售社会服务医药生物传媒食品饮料美容护理3.38%/4 1.5 5 603848.SH 20.13%002951.SZ-8.7%603180.SH 18.05%300501.SZ-6.83%603661.SH 17.48%603687.SH-6.02%603165.SH 12.99%603899.SH-4.17%002790.SZ 11.43%002162.SZ-3.33%i F i n d 1.2023 2 24 1,702/1.05%2023 1 12 4.1 2023 2 24 3,169/1.27%4,273/1.32%2023 1 57.29 114.8 2.04 9.53 2023 2 24 14.04%0.39 pct 2023 2 23 21.96%0.66 pct 4./5.1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 02468101214162020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 /5 6./7.8.2.2023 2 24 5,851 7,075 5,400/1.83%1.2%0.15%2022 11 113 5.4 53 4 4.3 1.1 2023 2 24 766.67 942.86/2023 2 23 650/2022 1 12 2,916 1.79%2023 2 24 6,725 5,800 5,170/0%0.35%-0.39%2023 1 64.29 0.78 56.9 2.25 68 1.51 2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%/6 2023 2 24 5.98%-6.5%-9.53%+1.06 pct+1.47 pct+0.44 pct 9./10.W i n d 11./12.W i n d i F i n D 13./14.2,5003,5004,5005,5006,5007,5008,5002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 02040608010012014016018002004006008001,0001,2001,4002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11:()4005006007008009001,0001,1002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01CFR:CFR:-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:4,5005,5006,5007,5008,5009,50010,5002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 02004006008001,0001,2002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 /7 15.1.2022 1 12 7,624.1 8.1%471.2 7.9%2022 12 7,273 1,594 21.92%2023 1 783.95 21.1%BHI 95.62 6.69 10.37 2022 1 12 696.8 5.3%16.17.i F i n D i F i n D-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003504004505002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:/8 18.19.(BHI)i F i n D i F i n D 20.i F i n D 2.2022 1 12 12.06 39.37%2023 2 23 30 18.52 9.47%1,839.68 10.74%2022 1 12 8.62 15%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:0204060801001201401601802020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01(BHI)-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000:/9 21.22.30 i F i n D i F i n D 23.30 24.i F i n D i F i n D 3.2022 3 1 CTI 1,130.09 1,008.05 2,028.07 9.02 45.92 111.61 2023 2 24 113 106.25 105.31 121.88 0.52-0.02 0.68-0.25 2023 2 24 MDI 16,140/2.18%21.27%TDI 19,600/2.49%1.29%9,992/2.71%18.9%2023 1 27 88.56-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0246810121416182030:30:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00030:30:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0246810122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:/10 25.2010 6=1000 26.i F i n D i F i n D 27.MDI/28.TDI/i F i n D i F i n D 29./30.i F i n D i F i n D 1,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2008008509009501,0001,0501,1001,1501,2001,250 8590951001051101151201251302020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,0002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:MDI8,00013,00018,00023,00028,00033,0002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:TDI5,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,0002020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 808284868890922020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:/11 2023 2 24 6,633.33/18,615/0.54%2023 2 24 WTI 76.32 83.16/-0.03%0.19%2023 2 24 LLDPE 8,321/1.24%7,919/0.74%31./32./i F i n D i F i n D 33./34./i F i n D i F i n D 2022 1 12 14,449.2 1.9%1,095.6 1.2%3,013.7 1.1%4,438.7 4.4%4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,0002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01(:):-60-40-200204060801001201402020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12():WTI():4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12(:):(LLDPE)(:):(PP)/12 35.36.i F i n D i F i n D 37.38.i F i n D i F i n D 1.2 24 20 80%1 2 3 REITs-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,2002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-12:/13 2.11 30-200/2 20 11 2 19 3 31 3-16 90 9.81 7 2 20 100/(337/440)150/50/45-110 115()50/2 21 3.2 21 3 5 1000/2 21 2 25 100/2 22 3 1 100/1.:0.23 11.43%400 2%2.:1.92 19.96%0.19 2%3.:2022 979.72 809 0.18 4.:2023 1 0.15 5.:2022 /14 2022 0.2 5 6.:2023 2 22 70%30%7.:2022 2022 5.04 0.42%0.27 165.66%0.26 1,947.56%EPS 0.39/117.78%8.:2023 8 20%1.17 3.5 Ekornes 2.1 2.4 9.:2022 2022 26.29 12.61%6.36 31.63%4.08 35.33%1.52 65.38%EPS 0.34/35.33%2 24 30 10.48%11.85%14 19.28%86.26%2018 /15 2022 18 50%120.66%315 23 22 315 23&2022 35.9 21 44%1 2 1 603833.SH 002572.SZ 603801.SH 603180.SH 2 603816.SH 603008.SH 001323.SZ 3 B 603208.SH 605268.SH 2023 2 24 /16 22 18.42%12.74%&Arauco MAPA 1 20 UPM 23 14.61%7.17%0.84%1,000/002078.SZ 600963.SH 603733.SH 2022 5,046 2.3%12 514 7.3%3C 002831.SZ 002701.SZ 36%11%36%/17 2021 93.35 21.69%5 25.3%CAGR 2026 282.04 22.8%C IBISWorld 2021-+220.98 13.49%2010 2021 CAGR 10.55%6 6.77%CAGR 2027 327.35 2021 CR5 31.2%9.7%0.1 pct 8.4%0.3 pct B B 2020 2.26 9.18%2022 2.7 500 3%50%2025 3,800 2022 44 40%1.3 87%6969.HK 603899.SH 605080.SH /18 1.300.3 2.3 3.3 4./.4 5.4 6./.5 7.5 8.5 9./.6 10.6 11./.6 12.6 13./.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.8 19.(BHI).8 20.8 21.9 22.30.9 23.30.9 24.9 25.2010 6=1000.10 26.10 27.MDI/.10 28.TDI/.10 29./.10 30.10 31./.11 32./.11 33./.11 34./.11 /19 35.12 36.12 37.12 38.12 1.4 /20 12 8 612 20%10%612 20%612 10%20%612 612 10%table_avow table_contact 3088 20 075583479312 suyiyun_ 075583471683 chengxi_ 99 31 02120252612 02160387901 luyunru_ 8 1 嫚 01080927722 tangmanling_ 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告