20230208_海通证券_轻工制造行业证券研究报告：家得宝发展史_35页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 02 08 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-25.76%-19.85%-13.94%-8.03%-2.12%3.79%2022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 Table_ReportInfo 22 2022.12.04 2022.07.31 2022.03.15 Table_AuthorInfo:Email:S0850521050003:Email:S0850522030002 Table_Summary 1999-2021 85%-93%2007-2021 79%59%2007 2.8%2021 18.4%14.4%1978 DIY DIFM PRO 2021 2317 1984-1999 DIY 1984-1999 35%41%1987-1999 51%2000-2010 20%2011-2011-2021 2.1 4.2 4.9 1978-1999 DIY 1989 1995 DIY 2000 DIY To C DIFM PRO To B 2018 The Home Depot Pro 2020 HD Supply B2B RDC Table_StockInfo EPS 2021 2022E 2023E 603833 4.38 4.96 5.88 603816 2.03 2.43 2.99 603008 1.44 1.60 2.21 001323 1.72 1.88 2.35 603180 2.19 2.71 3.30 603801 1.62 1.94 2.25 002572 0.13 1.35 1.64 1999 0.49 0.57 0.71 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所，敏华控股货币单位为港元 2 1.6 2.9 2.1.9 2.2 21%.12 3.14 3.1 DIY.14 3.2 DIY DIFM PRO.17 3.3.21 3.4 One Supply Chain.25 4.29 5.30 WUEVwPnQtQmNrPpMmRrOnM9PdN9PtRqQtRpMjMoOmOjMnNzRaQqRtPuOnMtNuOnMqR 3 1 1999-2021 85%.6 2 2000-2020.6 3 1979-2021.6 4 1992-2021.7 5 2007-2021.7 6 2021.7 7 2007-2021.8 8.8 9 2017-2021.9 10 2021 TOP5.9 11.9 12 2013-2021.10 13.11 14 1994-2021.11 15.12 16.13 17 1977-1999 GDP.14 18 1977-1999.14 19 1960-1964 2%.14 20 1963-1999.14 21 1979-1999.15 22 1979-1999.15 23 1984-1999.16 24 1984-1999.16 25 2000 GDP.17 26 2000-2005.17 27 1995-2011 DIY.17 28 1995-2011.17 29 2000-2004“P r o”.18 30 2000-2005 EXPO.18 4 31 2006-2010.20 32 2006-2010.20 33 2006-2010.20 34 HD Supply.21 35 HD Supply.21 36 2001-2010.22 37 2006.22 38 1995-2021.22 39 1994-2021.22 40 2010-2021.23 41 2017-2021.23 42 2021.23 43 2021.23 44 2004-2021.25 45 2004-2021.25 46.25 47 2021.26 48 2009-2021.27 49 2009-2021.27 50 2009-2021.28 51 2009-2021.28 52 2010-2021.29 53 2013-2021.29 5 1 1974-1997.15 2 1980-1995.16 3.18 4 HD Supply.19 5 1999 2021.19 6 HD Supply.20 7 2021.23 8 2021.23 9 1999 2021.27 10.28 11.29 12.30 6 1.1999-2021 85%-93%2000-2020 25.9 31.3 1 1999-2021 85%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%Wind 2 2000-2020 20222426283032 Wind 3 1979-2021-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050100150200250:()Wind 1992 451.4 2007 853.4 4.3%2010 590.6 2021 714.5 1.7%7 4 1992-2021 05010015020025001002003004005006007008009001000199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021:Wind,2007-2021 2478.5 3318.3 2.1%2021 51.8%28.6%5 2007-2021 0200400600800100012001400160018002000 Euromonitor 6 2021 28.6%14.3%5.3%51.8%Euromonitor 2007-2021 79%59%2007 2.8%2021 18.4%8 7 2007-2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Euromonitor 2012-2021 34.6%41.4%15.7%16.5%11.9%14.0%2021 Ace Hardware Corp Menards Tractor Supply 4.8%3.3%2.8%8 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Home Depot Inc,The Lowes Cos Inc Ace Hardware Corp Menards Inc Tractor Supply Co Euromonitor 40%TOP5 Statista 2021 1326.9 Wayfair Target 13.3%9.4%8.4%6.6%3.0%DIY Grainger 183.9 87.8 51.7 Euromonitor 2021 50%9 Amazon Wayfair Target AR Euromonitor 2021 2020 AR 29%2021 36%9 2017-2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%Statista 10 2021 TOP5 13.3%9.4%8.4%6.6%3.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Amazon Home Depot Walmart Wayfair Target Statista 2.2.1 HOME DEPOT 1978 1981 DIY DIFM PRO 2021 50 2317 10.4 2012-2021 11 1978家得宝公司注册成立1981家得宝在纽交所上市1986销售额超过10亿美元1989家得宝第100 家店开张1994收购Aikenhead1996家得宝第500 家店开张2000建立电子商务网站2001收购Total Home扩张至墨西哥2002成为第一家安装自助收银台的大型家装零售2007成立了第一个快速部署中心(RDC)2006进军中国市场2013家得宝飓风防范工坊陆续开业2010开启线上渠道首次推出应用程序2014第一个直销中心启用2015收购Interline Brands2017收购 Compact Power Equipment和 The Company Store 10 14 2021 3%12%2013-2021 2021 11.7%/7.9%/7.9%/7.8%/10.7%/7.4%/8.2%/5.6%/6.9%/9.0%/10.7%/5.9%/5.6%/4.6%12 2013-2021 0204060801001201401601802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Wind 2 2021 2317 1 1978-1999 1995-1999 20%2 2000-2010 1994 2001 2006 2000-2006 2012 7 3 2011-2021 PRO MRO 0.2%2021 87%8%6%2021 2000 1%11 13-500501001502002501994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021门店数量 家得宝门店净增长（个）-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050010001500200025001994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021门店数量 家得宝门店总数（个）门店数量 家得宝同比增长（%，右轴）净增长两位数净增长三位数净增长两位数净增长个位数快速发展期：门店增速维持在20%以上发展探索期：开启全球化扩张，门店增速呈下降趋势增速反弹期：巩固现有门店，同比增速在0.2%左右 1994-2021 14 1994-2021 05001000150020002500 1994-2021 12 50+15 2021 2.2 21%1984-2021 4.3 1511.6 17.1%0.14 164.3 21.0%1987 6.2 2022 3793.7 20.1%2000 2005 2012 2009 2000 2012 2021 1511.6 14.4%164.3 27.7%1984-1999 1984-1999 146.8 1992-1999 523.4 842.9 7.0%DIY 1984-1999 35%41%1987 6.2 1999 892.6 GAGR 51.3%2000-2010 21 2008 2000 20%2002 10%2006-2009 2001 1039.9 2010 475.6 13 2011-2011-2021 60.9 160.1 GAGR 10.2%2011-2021 2.1 4.2 4.9 16-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%050100150200250()GDP 01020304050607005001000150020002500300035004000-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%02004006008001000120014001600 GAAP GAAP Wind Bloomberg 14 3.3.1 DIY 1981 1978-1999 GDP 6.57 12.62 7340 24684 20 70 1960-1964 2%1965-1999 1.4%1963-1980 35.5%49.0%15.5%9.2%17 1977-1999 GDP-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%020000400006000080000100000120000140000 GDP(,)wind 18 1977-1999 051015202530:wind 19 1960-1964 2%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%19601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998 wind 20 1963-1999 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%wind 20 60 63%1974-1999 64.4%66.9%15 1 1974-1997 1974 25%1986 LIHTC 1987 1990 1997 45 20 70 Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac AAA Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Home Affordable Refinance Program HARP 1982-1986 1991-1999 1979 109%1999 254%21 1979-1999-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020406080100120140160180200197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999:()Wind 22 1979-1999 050100150200250300%Wind DIY 1988 133 1999 210 4%DIY DIY 60000 20 90 1984-1999 4.3 384.3 GAGR 34.9%0.14 23.2 GAGR 40.5%16 23 1984-1999 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050100150200250300350400450 Bloomberg 24 1984-1999-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0510152025 Bloomberg 1989 275.9 1980-1995 4 423 11 79 GAGR 14.2%89 3.7 25.1/41.8/958/7.4/4198/19.3/2 1980-1995 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 4 8 10 19 31 50 60 75 YOY 100.0%25.0%90.0%63.2%61.3%20.0%25.0%1.1 1.9 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.2 YOY 74.8%50.3%28.1%1.7%-6.3%3.5%17.7%0.9 1.9 4.2 8.5 14.3 23.3 34.0 48.1 YOY 115.5%117.3%103.6%68.1%63.6%45.9%41.3%25.1 26.9 28.3 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.7 30.2 YOY 7.1%5.0%6.9%0.5%-1.1%-1.0%1.7%/958 1647 2260 2637 2659 2400 2476 2852 YOY 71.9%37.3%16.7%0.8%-9.7%3.1%15.2%/7.4 7.9 10.7 10.7 10.8 13.0 15.3 16.0 YOY 6.6%34.9%-0.2%1.4%19.9%18.1%4.2%1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 96 118 145 174 214 264 340 423 YOY 28.0%22.9%22.9%20.0%23.0%23.4%28.8%24.4%4.64 5.15 5.66 6.33 7.24 7.64 8.02 7.87 YOY 11.0%11.0%9.9%11.8%14.4%5.5%5.0%-1.9%64.2 84.5 112.5 146.2 189.5 236.1 302.2 370.3 YOY 33.6%31.6%33.1%30.0%29.6%24.6%28.0%22.5%31.1 32.7 33.9 35.1 37.7 39.1 41.3 41.8 YOY 2.9%4.9%3.9%3.6%7.4%3.7%5.5%1.2%/3035 3261 3466 3746 4166 4284 4349 4198 YOY 6.4%7.4%6.3%8.1%11.2%2.8%1.5%-3.5%/15.4 15.8 17.7 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.6 19.3 YOY-3.7%2.5%12.6%3.4%0.2%-0.6%2.0%3.8%Bloomberg 1989 1993 1995 17 3.2 DIY DIFM PRO 2000 2001 GDP 1%2000 16.5%2005 6.6%2002-6.7%25 2000 GDP-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%115000120000125000130000135000140000145000150000155000160000 GDP(,)Wind 26 2000-2005-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%020004000600080001000012000 Wind To C To B DIY DIY+DIFM+Pro 1995 1995 5142.3 2006 6433.9 DIY 1995 23.8%2011 17.6%DIY DIY 2000 DIY To C DIFM PRO To B 27 1995-2011 DIY 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 35 joint center for housing studies of harvard university 28 1995-2011-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%300035004000450050005500600065007000:)Wind DIY DIY 2000-2004 719 DIFM DIFM 2001 DIFM EXPO 2004 EXPO 18 2000 PRO 1993 1999 Pro 2000 165 2004 1563 DIFM Pro 2012 Red Beacon 2016 Pro Referral Red Beacon 2008 DIFM 200 DIFM Pro 2012 Red Beacon 2016 Pro Referral Red Beacon 2008 DIFM 200 29 2000-2004 Pro 0200400600800100012001400160018002000 2001 2002 2003 2004()2000-2004 30 2000-2005 EXPO 01020304050602000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005EXPO 2000-2005 3 DIY Do it yourself C DIFM Do it for me B PRO Professional Customers B 2000 MRO PRO MRO MRO PRO B 2005 18 HD Supply National Waterworks Williams Bros.Lumber Company 2006 12 HD Supply HVAC Hughes Supply HD Supply HD Supply 19 HD Supply 2006 HD Supply 162%4 HD Supply/HVAC 2006 2000 2010 2004 Home Mart Mexico 20 2006 The Home Way 10 5 1999 2021 1999 1999 6 Georgia Lighting 1 2000 Apex Supply Company N-E Thing Supply Company,Inc.2000 1 Apex N-E 2 2001 2001 11 Your other Warehouse 1 2002 2002 10 Floors,Inc.,Arvada Hardwood Floor Company FloorWorks,Inc.3 2004 2004 6 Home Mart Mexico,20 1 2005 2005 21 National Waterworks Williams Bros.Lumber Company 25 21 2006 2006 43 Hughes Supply 15 12 HD Supply 2006 125 12 The Home Way 15 2007 2007 Ohio Water&Waste Supply,Inc.Geosynthetics,Inc HD Supply HD Supply 2 2011 2011 Red Beacon DIFM 1 2012 2012 3 5 MeasureComp L.L.C.10 USHS USHS USHS 12 BlackLocus,Inc.3 2014 B 1 2015 HD Supply Hardware Solutions Interline Brands 2015 1 HD Supply Hardware Solutions Crown Bolt 2015 8 16.72 Interline Brands MRO 2 2017 Compact Power The Company Store Compact Power PRO The Company Store 3.74 2 2020 2020 HD Supply MRO MRO 1 1999-2021 20 2006-2009-13%-25%-33%-39%2007-2009-1%-11%-14%31 2006-2010-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%050100150200250199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010:()Wind 32 2006-2010-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0200400600800100012002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010:Wind 2007 HD Supply 11 Home Depot Landscape 2 Home Depot Floor Store 2009 1 EXPO THD Yardbirds HD Bath 2007 20 2010 33 2006-2010-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%0500100015002000250030003500400045002006 2007 2008 2009 2010/%2010 6 HD Supply 2007 2500 21 2007 PRO+MRO B2B 2007 HD Supply MRO 2015 8 17 Interline Brands Interline Brands Boardline MRO 90 MRO 2020 78 HD Supply HD Supply Interline HD Supply HD Supply MRO 2018 The Home Depot Pro MRO 34 HD Supply HD Supply 35 HD Supply HD Supply 3.3 1 1978-1999 20%2 2000-2010 3 2011 0.2%1994 1997 100 104 8 2001 4 2010 85 2006 The Home Way 12 2000-2006 100 2005 4085/22 36 2001-2010 0%50%100%150%200%250%0204060801002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010家得宝墨西哥门店（个，左轴）同比增长（%，右轴）2001-2010 37 2006 辽宁：1 家北京：2 家天津：5 家山东：1 家陕西：2 家河南：1 家 2006 38 1995-2021-50050100150200250199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021家得宝门店净增长（个）1995-2021 39 1994-2021-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%01000200030004000500060001994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021家得宝坪效（美元/平方米）家得宝同比增长（%，右轴）1994-2021 2012 2000-2012 1129 2256 2012 4.2%16.1%/13.7%/12.6%2012 2012-2021 1%2021 0.22 89%2017-2021 90%23 40 2010-2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001000120014001600201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021营业收入（亿美元）同比增长（%）Wind 41 2017-2021 91.6%91.9%91.9%92.5%91.9%8.4%8.1%8.1%7.5%8.1%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021美国营收占比（%）其他国家营收占比（%）Wind 7 2021 89%11%22.34 5%95%8.22 21%79%0.49-31.06 2021 2021 247/181/156/101 34.2%42 2021 2021 43 2021 2021 8 2021 California 247 Ontario 88 Texas 181 Alberta 27 Florida 156 British Columbia 26 New York 101 Quebec 22 Georgia 90 Manitoba 6 24 Illinois 76 Nova Scotia 4 Michigan 70 Saskatchewan 4 Ohio 70 New Brunswick 3 Pennsylvania 70 Newfoundland 1 New Jersey 67 Prince Edward Island 1 Arizona 56 Total Canada 182 Virginia 50 Colorado 46 State of Mexico 16 Washington 46 Nuevo Le n 11 Massachusetts 45 Distrito Federal 10 Maryland 41 Jalisco 8 North Carolina 40 Baja California 6 Tennessee 39 Chihuahua 6 Missouri 34 Coahuila 5 Minnesota 33 Guanajuato 5 Connecticut 30 Puebla 5 Alabama 28 Quer taro 5 Louisiana 28 Sinaloa 5 Oregon 27 Tamaulipas 5 Wisconsin 27 Veracruz 5 South Carolina 26 Michoac n 4 Indiana 24 Sonora 4 Utah 22 Morelos 3 Nevada 21 Quintana Roo 3 New Hampshire 20 Aguascalientes 2 Kansas 16 Baja California Sur 2 Oklahoma 16 Campeche 2 Arkansas 14 Chiapas 2 Kentucky 14 Colima 2 Mississippi 14 Guerrero 2 New Mexico 13 San Luis Potos 2 Idaho 11 Yucat n 2 Maine 11 Durango 1 Iowa 10 Hidalgo 1 Puerto Rico 10 Nayarit 1 Delaware 9 Oaxaca 1 Nebraska 8 Tabasco 1 Rhode Island 8 Tlaxcala 1 Alaska 7 Zacatecas 1 Hawaii 7 Total Mexico 129 Montana 6 West Virginia 6 Wyoming 5 Vermont 3 North Dakota 2 Virgin Islands 2 District of Columbia 1 Guam 1 South Dakota 1 Total U.S.2006 2021 25 2005 1234 2042 1.7 2007 2016 RONA 42 299 7 2010 2018 13 11 20 2021 2317 2006 1971 1737 44 2004-2021-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%050100150200250300350200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021家得宝加拿大门店（个，左轴）劳氏加拿大门店（个，左轴）家得宝同比增长（%，右轴）劳氏同比增长（%，右轴）2004-2021 2004-2021 45 2004-2021 0%50%100%150%200%020406080100120140200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021家得宝墨西哥门店（个，左轴）劳氏墨西哥门店（个，左轴）家得宝同比增长（%，右轴）劳氏同比增长（%，右轴）2004-2021 2004-2021 46 3.4 One Supply Chain RDC RDC BDC SDC DFC 2007 2007 26 RDC rapid deployment center RDC RDC 2021 39/1487 1632 47 2021 2010 2011 RDC SDC 2015 95%2018 98%2015 Interline MRO MRO 2019 FDC BDC 2019 12 One Supply Chain 2007 RDC 2017 RDC 18 2021 RDC 15 9 27 9 1999 2021 供应链设施 名称及简写 职能 2017 2021 美国 加拿大 墨西哥 总数 Rapid Deployment Centers(RDC)18 18 15 Bulk Distribution Centers(BDC)30 4 34 4 Stocking Distribution Centers(SDC)23 1 24 Specialty Distribution Centers 12 1 13 Transload Facilities SDC 4 4 2 Direct Fulfillment Centers(DFC)5 2 7 3 Stock-Flow Centers RDC SDC 2 2 Multi-Channel Distribution Centers RDC BDC SDC 2 2 Flatbed Distribution Centers FDC 2019 15 2017 2021 98%67%2009 4.43 2021 5.25 2010-2021 26.6%20.1%13.06 17.6 51.93 83.04 4.36%48 2009-2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0200400600800100012001400 Bloomberg 49 2009-2021-10%-5%0%5%10%15%50525456586062646668707274 Bloomberg 28 50 2009-2021-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%020406080100120140160180()Bloomberg 51 2009-2021 4.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.84.95.05.15.25.35.4 Bloomberg 1999 Home Depot 2010 FIRST Phone BODFS BOPIS BORIS BOSS 2014 DFC 2015 Supply Chain Synchronization,Project Sync 2013-2021 3.5%13.7%2013-2019 28.4%2020 86.0%75%2021 55%1995 2011 MyLowes 2009-2011 1%2014-2016 2015 L PRO PRO 2016 3.5%22 10 BODFS Buy Online,Deliver From Store BOPIS Buy Online,Pickup In Store BORIS Buy Online,Return In Store BOSS Buy Online,Ship to Store 2021 29 52 2010-2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02000400060008000100002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021美国网络零售额（亿美元，左轴）美国网络零售额占比（右轴）Wind 53 2013-2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021网络销售额（亿元，左轴）网络销售额占比（%，右轴）网络销售额同比增长（%，右轴）2013-2021 4.1978-1999 DIY 1989 1995 DIY 2000 DIY To C DIFM PRO To B 2018 The Home Depot Pro 2020 HD Supply B2B RDC 22 22Q4-11/22.05.15 1)20 2)22.09.29 1)2022 6-8 2022 2)22.12.15 30 22.12.15-16 2022 1)2)3)4)23.01.05 1)2)3)4)5)23.01.05 1)2022 2)3 3)3 4)12 YOY PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 603833.S