20231115_国信证券_动物保健行业投资框架_43页.pdf
|2023 11 15 021-S0980520110002 021-S0980523030001 010-关键结论 1 2+选股思路 1 2 股价驱动因素 相关标的 1 2 风险因素 2ZXEVwPrMsRnMrPoNtOrOrQaQcMaQpNpPtRnOfQqRrQkPnMqO9PpPwOwMsRrNxNnNqM 01 02&03 04 2010-2021 2021 700 170 500 4304 335 401 402 407 414 465 473 459 504 621 686-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007008002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 2018 5 2010-2021 iFinD 05101520253035404505001,0001,5002,0002,500:-22:/-(60.0)(40.0)(20.0)0.020.040.060.080.02010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 20102011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 20122013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 20132014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20162017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 20192020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020:22:2-3 2013-2017 6,iFinD iFinD(120)802804806808801,080(5)051015202530354045-()-()-22:/-70501001502002503000510152025-()-2014-2015 Apoquel-Versican Plus Simparica Cytopoint Abbott PHARMAQ 2016-2017 Simparica FDA PHARMAQ Alpha Ject Vanguard Stronghold Plus Nexvet 2018-2019 Fostera Gold PCV MH Suvaxyn Circo for pigs Simparica Trio Poulvac Procerta HVT-ND Abaxis Platinum Performance Phoenix Lab ZNLabs Ethos Diagnostic Science 2020-2022-Vetscan lmagyst Librela Solensia Apoquele Performance Livestock Analytics Fish Vet Group Basepaws Jurox GMP 2000 30 21 2025 3 8 O A O,A 2022 2025 20 60 1968 20 60-80 20 2021 CR10 60%Zoetis 16%9 2006-2021 USDA 2021 160.7179191.9186201220225230250300 300320335329338383-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250300350400450 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120121-99 100-499 500-999 1000 硕腾15.89%默沙东/默克11.38%勃林格殷格翰10.35%礼蓝9.74%爱德士6.57%诗华3.38%维克股份2.56%辉宝动保1.70%德克罗1.68%浩卫制药1.52%其他公司35.22%2015 2022 10 20%2021 3%2025 10 40%2020 CR10 22%10 CR1O CR1O 5%8%9%12%17%20%40%+0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2016A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2025E3.94%3.24%2.83%2.60%2.44%2.18%2.00%1.46%1.18%0.53%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%2020 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-CR10-CR10-CR10-CR10 01 02&03 04 10%100/10/12 1.2.3.4.13 14 2021 170.18 5.35%CR10 55%2021 163.25 96%6.02%2021 81.68 66.85 49%38%15 2013-2021 2016-2021-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%0204060801001201401601802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021)-yoy-yoy41%35%43%43%40%49%36%35%35%54%47%38%23%30%22%3%13%13%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2020 40 18 28%13%2020 16 11 11%8%16 2020 40 18 16 11 10 7 7 34 051015202530354045 2020 2022 14.50 12.13 2022 10.32 10.01 8.39 17 2022 14.51 12.13 10.32 10.01 8.39 3.43 3.28 2.04 2009 2010-2017 2017 18.55 2010-2017 29.16%40 8 18 2015-2019 2022 2001-2022 iFinD 20.7126.532.637.4938.990%20%40%60%80%100%0510152025303540452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 169128898755 5329 290%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201401601802022-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02004006008001000120014001600180020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-yoy ASF ASFV 2018 1 2022 2 20 2 19/ASFV ASFV ASFV ASFV ASFV DNA ASFV ASFV mRNA mRNA 20 VP2 SAD-dOG SAD r3G LT90+JM35+HL50+HeN20 708+60+64 01 02&03 04 22 2021 516 2016-2021 CAGR 12.25%182.85 275.18 39.92%60.08%23 2010-2021 2021 208 227 269 261 259 264 290 298 289 336 459 516-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01002003004005006002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021)yoy 60.08%39.92%2021 84%69%2021 4642 4483 24.56 18.12 2021 19.82 17.08 10.96 24 2021 84%2021 69%83.85%10.63%2.10%3.42%68.90%9.55%4.88%6.12%3.10%2.53%4.91%24.5618.1219.8217.0810.962.82.220.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 2021 CR10 45%CR10 25%25 2021 2021 iFinD 1001839393600252802004006008001,0001,200 16.6717.9321.6327.41051015202530%4.22 4.277.779.962.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021-01 02&03 04 1 2 27 ROE(%)2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 600195.SH 49.99 53.02 58.92 4.2 5.14 5.5 9.38 10.46 10.39600201.SH 15.82 17.76 15.29 4.06 3.82 2.11 8.15 7.25 4.15300119.SZ 20 20.07 20.84 3.98 4.13 3.47 16.22 10.24 8.21603566.SH 9.29 10.99 12.28 2.28 2.44 1.74 13.32 13.56 6.22688526.SH 8.43 11.03 10.01 4.48 5.71 4.1 16.53 18.1 11.71688098.SH 3.38 3.58 3.29 1.3 1.1 0.61 9.27 7.45 4.08839729.BJ 3.33 3.64 3.49 0.8 0.91 0.86 11.59 12.95 12.36603718.SH 2.59 3.47 3 0.09 0.54 1.22 0.84 5.36 10.66 605507.SH 42.06 45.05 57.21 8.1 7.06 9.21 24.73 11.13 12.87300871.SZ 7.77 9.96 10.23 1.5 1.33 0.53 10.89 8.21 3.42 603739.SH 9.60 11.51 11.63 1.09 1.33 0.70 10.54 8.26 4.25 871970.BJ 1.45 1.79 1.57 0.33 0.35 0.18 18.37 16.44 5.07838275.BJ 1.27 1.37 1.54 0.4 0.4 0.17 20.32 15.2 7.47 iFinD 80 1998 30 80 2022 58.92 CAGR 6.60%3.97 9.34%2019 FDA 28 2022 60 iFinD iFinD iFinD-40-200204060800102030405060701995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%)0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 29 iFinD iFinD iFinD 1993 1998 2009 2016 15 2022 2022 2 2023 20.68%6455.16 9.43%P3 mRNA VLP E2 A Rev.1 2023(60)(40)(20)020406080051015202010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)024681012141618202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-%30 iFinD iFinD iFinD 1998 19 11 84 500 2022 20.84+3.84%3.47 17.93%(H5+H7)2023 6 22 5000 9 25 12 2022 5000 23Q1 100%(40)(20)02040608005101520252010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)(5)05101520252019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 2021 2022 31 iFinD iFinD iFinD 6 50 60 100 Re-9 rVP2 rVP2 2022 12.28 11.78%1.74 14.18%HN1201-R1-529.90608.06663.19928.511,098.571,228.02305.65(20)(10)0102030405002004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022 90%32 iFinD iFinD iFinD 2022 9.37 94%2020 2021 2016-2021 2023H1 4381.03 77 2 KQ03+XJ03 XJ03+MD0322 632.83735.30507.51843.231,103.021,001.27827.44(40)(20)020406080020040060080010001200(%)02004006008001,0001,2002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 602.56704.62479.61813.941,056.89937.4368707274767880828486880200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%33 iFinD iFinD iFinD 99%2 OKM 2004 O 2018 62.79%2017 O A 2022 mRNA 2 CHO-133D 2022 5 IPO 9903 2 302.08275.14253.81337.73358.43328.59(15)(10)(5)05101520253035400501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)0501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 82.2883.6775.6975.1970.072.074.076.078.080.082.084.086.02019 2020 2021 2022-(%)34 iFinD iFinD iFinD 30 2023H1 1236.39 8.10%2 1 Bartha-K61 H9 I 4 rYSa+GL+Fiber-2 H9 I 4 rYSa+GL+VP2+Fiber-2 AHCA01+AVCA07 4 1 3.523.833.913.313.333.643.49(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152033.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.942016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 35 iFinD iFinD iFinD 2023 31 17 2018 6-2023H1 5787.27 27.45%2532.94 61.81%-CDMO RNA CRDMO 2023 6 48 21 3.433.042.552.782.593.473.00(20)(10)01020304000.511.522.533.542016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 36%iFinD iFinD%iFinD 2023 6000 2000 1500 2023 4500 1500 1 4.004.22 4.277.779.9610.23(10)01020304050607080900246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 37 iFinD iFinD iFinD 85%2023 6 30 161 2020 IPO 7000 160 2.6 1000/2020 3.3 1000 600 1000 1000 600-4.004.22 4.277.779.9610.23(10)01020304050607080900246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)0246810122020 2021 2022 01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)(%)38%iFinD iFinD%iFinD 2005 VLAND-PCP()2023 8 51%500 ADM 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 7.998.148.479.6011.51 11.635.44(5)0510152025024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1(%)39 iFinD iFinD iFinD 0.520.860.891.141.451.791.57(100)010020030040050060000.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)(0.2)0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 40 iFinD iFinD iFinD 1.081.452.050.981.271.371.54(60)(40)(20)02040608010000.511.522.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%)0.00.51.01.52.02.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%2020 2021 2022 41 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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