20230116_招商证券_建材行业证券研究定期报告：供需端政策协同发力继续看好地产链优质标的_23页.pdf
|2023 01 16/0.9%20-50/1 10%-50%310.89/2.64/71.75%1.46%1611/1.45%15.88-0.25%111-0.21%-8.82%78.22%-0.33%79.03%-0.16%20230112 6151.8-3.56%+56.92%27.5-0.9 2023 1 13 1 2+3 4&%106 2.2 11332 1.4 9353 1.4%1m 6m 12m-0.3-4.1-18.7-3.5 1.6-4.2 1 2023-01-08 2 2023-01-02 3+2022-12-26 S1090517070008-40-30-20-10010Jan/22 May/22 Aug/22 Dec/22(%)建材 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.5.7 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.9 5.12 6.14 7.15.16 1.16 2.18.19 1 2022 2.11-2.50 151.93%-197.30%.19 2 2022 48.20 6.21%.20 3 2022 17.27-20.88 16.57%-40.96%.20 4 2022 13.50-15.20 45.91%-51.96%.20 5.20 6 5%.20 7 5%.20 8.20 9.20 10 2.02.20 11.21 12 51%.21 13 3.64.21 ZXEVzQsPmPqRtNoNsPpQoPaQaObRnPnNoMmPfQpPnMeRmNsN7NnMqMuOpNpMwMoMsP 3 1 P.O42.5/.10 2/.10 3 P.O42.5/.11 4 P.O42.5/.11 5 P.O42.5/.11 6 P.O42.5/.11 7 P.O42.5/.11 8 P.O42.5/.11 9%.12 10/.13 11/.13 12/.13 13/.13 14.14 15/.14 16/.14 17/.15 18.15 19.15 20 PVC PPR HDPE/.15 21/.15 22/.16 23 LNG/.16 24/.16 25/.16 26.17 27.17 28.17 29 PE 2022.17 4 30 PE 2022.17 1.9 2.18 5 1 0.9%20-50/1 10%-50%310.89/2.64/71.75%1.46%1611/1.45%15.88-0.25%111-0.21%-8.82%78.22%-0.33%79.03%-0.16%20230112 6151.8-3.56%+56.92%27.5-0.9 2 2023 1 13 1 2+3 4&3+C/B+6 2022-2023 EPS 0.81 0.97 PE 28.89 24.12 B BIPV+/2022-2023 EPS 0.38 0.69 PE 36.66 20.19+B C C 2022-2023 EPS 0.01 1.56 PE 2138 13.71 B B+2022-2023 EPS 0.27 0.59 PE 50.33 23.03+2022-2023 EPS 1.96 2.40 PE 14.74 12.04+2000 TPO BIPV 2022-2023 EPS 1.07 1.60 PE 35.54 23.77+2022-2023 EPS 2.61 3.13 PE 5.64 4.70 2022-2023 EPS 0.44 1.29 PE 35.36 12.06 7 PC 2022-2023 EPS 1.27 1.70 PE 33.35 24.92 1+N+2022-2023 EPS 0.35 0.45 PE 28.11 21.87 1 1 10 2022 21.31 1.36 2022 26.26 6.59 2022 344.21 9.6%2 2022 12 1.8%1.8%1.8%4.8%1.1%2.6%0.6%2022 2.0%3 2022 12 0.7%0.5%0.3%0.4%2022 4.1%6.1%4 2022 12 PMI PMI 47%41.6%42.6%2022 12 PMI 47%1 41.6%5.1 5 2023 GDP 5.5%5.5%7%6 2022 3.6%3.1%GDP 28%0.5 2023 2023 8 1 2 1 1 1 10 8 2 30 3 2022 12 100 1018 84.7%33.4%2022 2022 12 411.6 92.2%71.7%60 4 2022 1-12 8457.4 50.7%4654.6 176.1 972.1 ABS 2654.6 2 1 2022 12 63.2%57.7%2021 37.1%55.52%12 3 1 2022 CEMPI 144.43 151.53 4.91%2 2022 12 7.6%7.0%9.2%6.1%4.6%1.9%3 2022 12 1.8%0.9%0.7%0.1%0.9%0.4%4 1 5 18 2 2023 5 9 50 2022 12 12 15 31 4 P.O 42.5 436.6/12.7/2.7%P.O 42.5 399.7/7.1/1.7%4.8/5mm 1626.6/6.0/0.4%6 1 11 2022 2023 7 2022 19 9 3419/2022 1572 700 18.4 20 2023 3000 19 4 0.9%20-50/1 10%-50%1 30-40/1-2 5-6 3 2-3 2023 80-85 45 4-6 2-3 2023 80 1-3 40 6-8 20 9-12 20 5-6 30/3 30-50/5-6 12 20-30/3-4 20/P.O42.5 340-370/3-5 2023 150 3-4 2 40%-50%3 80%1 15 2-3 20-50/12 10 5 20-30/5-6 20-30/2-3 1-2 3 1 67 38 5 30/4-5 10%7 8-9 3-4 2-3 80%40/P.O42.5 340-350/3 1-2 60%-70%2 P.O42.5 Q5500 735/310.89/2.64/100kg 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.001月1月2月3月3月4月4月5月5月6月6月7月7月8月8月8 月9月9月10月10月11月11月12月12月12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20231502503504505506507508509502015/02/012015/06/012015/10/012016/02/012016/06/012016/10/012017/02/012017/06/012017/10/012018/02/012018/06/012018/10/012019/02/012019/06/012019/10/012020/02/012020/06/012020/10/012021/02/012021/06/012021/10/012022/02/012022/06/012022/10/01水泥煤炭 价格差 动力煤价 格 11 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/71.75%1.46%10 5 50%1502002503003504004505005506002014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/181502503504505506507502014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/181502503504505506507502014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/181502503504505506507502014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/181502002503003504004505005506006502014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/181502002503003504004505005506002014/2/182014/5/182014/8/182014/11/182015/2/182015/5/182015/8/182015/11/182016/2/182016/5/182016/8/182016/11/182017/2/182017/5/182017/8/182017/11/182018/2/182018/5/182018/8/182018/11/182019/2/182019/5/182019/8/182019/11/182020/2/182020/5/182020/8/182020/11/182021/2/182021/5/182021/8/182021/11/182022/2/182022/5/182022/8/182022/11/18 12 9%5 20230112 1622/1 5 1.63%1 6-1 12 1611/1.45%20.6%1-2/1-2/1-2/+11%01020304050607080902015/1/142015/4/142015/7/142015/10/142016/1/142016/4/142016/7/142016/10/142017/1/142017/4/142017/7/142017/10/142018/1/142018/4/142018/7/142018/10/142019/1/142019/4/142019/7/142019/10/142020/1/142020/4/142020/7/142020/10/142021/1/142021/4/142021/7/142021/10/142022/1/142022/4/142022/7/142022/10/14 13 10/11/2021 2022 91.14%92.29%-1.15%61.90-0.77 1.24%27.04-2.55 8.62%1.1 25 92%61-62 78.22%-0.33 111-0.21%87.835,1 600/12/13/Wind 2023 1 12 15.88-0.25%1 6-1 12 111-0.21%-8.82%1 1 6151.8-3.56%+56.92%27.5-0.9 1400150016001700180019007/28/20228/11/20228/25/20229/8/20229/22/202210/6/202210/20/202211/3/202211/17/202212/1/202212/15/202212/29/20221/12/2023华北 华东 华中华南 东北 西南西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 20230100020003000400009/0609/1210/0610/1211/0611/1212/0612/1213/0613/1214/0614/1215/0615/1216/0616/1217/0617/1218/0618/1219/0619/1220/0620/1221/0621/1222/0622/12全国平均-400-200020040060080010001200140016001/20/20183/20/20185/20/20187/20/20189/20/201811/20/20181/20/20193/20/20195/20/20197/20/20199/20/201911/20/20191/20/20203/20/20205/20/20207/20/20209/20/202011/20/20201/20/20213/20/20215/20/20217/20/20219/20/202111/20/20211/20/20223/20/20225/20/20227/20/20229/20/202211/20/2022 14 14 6 15/16/01000200030004000500060007000800090002009/042010/012010/102011/072012/042013/012013/102014/072015/042016/012016/102017/072018/042019/012019/102020/072021/042022/012022/104,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10月 11 月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 20224,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001 月 2月 3月 4月 5 月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10 月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 15 17/18 19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 4,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0001月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 20220204060802017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/10库存（万 吨）010203040506070801 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002015/012015/052015/092016/012016/052016/092017/012017/052017/092018/012018/052018/092019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/092023/01PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002014/122015/042015/082015/122016/042016/082016/122017/042017/082017/122018/042018/082018/122019/042019/082019/122020/042020/082020/122021/042021/082021/122022/042022/08国废均价 16 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 24/25/Wind Wind 1 1.19%2.93%2.18%4.99%2.38%1.40%1.05%-0.42%010002000300040005000600070002013/102014/032014/082015/012015/062015/112016/042016/092017/022017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/082020/012020/062020/112021/042021/092022/022022/072022/12全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090003/22/20148/22/20141/22/20156/22/201511/22/20154/22/20169/22/20162/22/20177/22/201712/22/20175/22/201810/22/20183/22/20198/22/20191/22/20206/22/202011/22/20204/22/20219/22/20212/22/20227/22/202212/22/2022LNG价格05000100001500020000250002018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/01钛白粉均 价05000100001500020000250003000035000400002012/032012/082013/012013/062013/112014/042014/092015/022015/072015/122016/052016/102017/032017/082018/012018/062018/112019/042019/092020/022020/072020/122021/052021/102022/032022/08环 氧 树 脂 均 价 17 26 iFinD 2014 27 28 iFinD iFinD 2014 2022 13.47 A 8.46 15.91 19.35 22.42 27.54 29 PE 2022 30 PE 2022 iFinD 2014 iFinD 2014 4%4%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-4%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%非银金融食品饮料有色金属农林牧渔医药生物家用电器建筑材料汽车纺织服装电气设备传媒银行电子轻工制造机械设备交通运输通信商业贸易采掘化工钢铁休闲服务建筑装饰计算机综合房地产公用事业国防军工1.19%1.77%2.06%2.93%2.18%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%上证综指 中小板指 深证成指 创业板指 建材行业-0.42%1.05%1.40%2.38%4.99%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%水泥制造 管材 耐火材料 玻璃制造 其他建材4 6 6 9 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 17 18 18 18 20 22 23 24 24 25 29 33 34 35 42 92 0102030405060708090100银行采掘建筑装饰房地产化工通信钢铁建筑材料非银金融家用电器有色金属公用事业交通运输轻工制造商业贸易纺织服装机械设备汽车传媒电气设备电子农林牧渔综合医药生物食品饮料计算机休闲服务8.46 15.91 19.35 22.42 27.54 051015202530水泥制造 耐火材料 玻璃制造 管材 其他建材 18 2 28.09%14.42%6.03%5.51%5.40%A-9.22%-6.10%-5.63%-4.89%-4.58%2 1 28.09%51.05%52.85%2 14.42%12.84%25.19%3 6.03%11.84%18.91%4 5.51%10.68%17.87%5 5.40%10.12%16.65%6 5.35%9.39%16.55%7 5.13%7.42%13.91%8 4.77%6.51%13.29%9 4.31%6.50%12.27%10 4.29%5.99%11.67%11 4.24%5.71%11.15%12 3.89%5.69%10.80%13 3.86%5.59%10.73%14 3.67%5.51%9.65%15 3.26%5.37%9.32%16 2.97%4.79%9.27%17 2.88%4.26%8.96%18 2.84%4.24%8.85%19 2.50%3.19%8.43%20 2.38%2.76%7.63%21 2.28%2.66%7.43%22 2.02%2.50%7.31%23 2.00%2.00%7.29%24 1.91%1.81%7.16%25 1.76%1.65%7.10%26 1.64%1.58%6.82%27 1.54%0.62%6.75%28 1.52%0.30%6.62%29 1.48%0.20%6.30%30 1.46%-0.20%6.05%31 1.20%-0.29%5.62%32 1.20%-0.52%5.52%33 1.19%-0.72%5.31%34 1.17%-0.96%5.10%35 1.11%-1.02%4.92%36 1.10%-1.14%4.63%37 1.08%-1.16%4.09%38 1.06%-1.26%4.09%39 0.91%-1.37%4.07%40 0.83%-1.45%3.87%41 0.56%-1.48%3.83%42 A 0.44%-1.71%3.58%43 0.34%-1.84%3.52%44 0.34%-2.43%3.39%45 0.00%-2.48%3.33%19 46 0.00%-2.63%3.27%47-0.24%-2.72%3.25%48-0.30%-2.80%3.22%49-0.47%A-2.82%3.15%50-0.48%-2.91%3.04%51-0.52%-3.21%2.97%52-0.60%-3.35%2.86%53-0.61%-3.83%2.61%54-0.63%-3.86%2.54%55-0.67%-3.96%A 2.53%56-0.68%-4.14%2.21%57-0.69%-4.18%2.09%58-0.84%-4.33%1.85%59-0.84%-4.47%1.76%60-0.85%-4.78%1.75%61-0.87%-4.85%1.73%62-0.92%-5.05%1.57%63-0.99%-5.21%1.52%64-1.02%-5.35%1.41%65-1.02%-5.39%1.36%66-1.09%-5.75%1.16%67-1.32%-5.87%0.96%68-1.72%-6.02%0.94%69-1.80%-6.05%0.93%70-2.06%-6.09%0.60%71-2.10%-6.09%0.20%72-2.21%-6.22%0.17%73-2.25%-6.23%0.12%74-2.43%-6.61%0.00%75-2.55%-6.93%0.00%76-2.61%-6.95%-0.36%77-2.89%-7.15%-1.16%78-2.97%-7.65%-1.36%79-2.98%-7.68%-1.41%80-4.16%-9.69%-2.24%81 ST-4.23%-9.84%-2.92%82-4.58%-10.77%-3.26%83-4.89%-10.89%-3.42%84-5.63%-19.64%-4.12%85-6.10%A-21.91%ST-5.29%86 A-9.22%ST-25.48%A-22.08%iFinD 1 2022 2.11-2.50 151.93%-197.30%2022 2.11-2.50 151.93%-197.30%1.92-2.30 173.27%-227.36%0.21/0.25/20 2 2022 48.20 6.21%2022 48.20 6.21%6700.36 40.22%4964.98 33.91%0.29 ROE11.73%3 2022 17.27-20.88 16.57%-40.96%2022 17.27-20.88 16.57%-40.96%1.75-2.23 6.71%-35.86%1.46-1.80 6.54%-31.79%4 2022 13.50-15.20 45.91%-51.96%2022 13.50-15.20 45.91%-51.96%11.00-12.70 47.49%-54.52%0.5079/0.5718/5 2015 2 5%1,018.88 6 5%2023 1 6 6970.84 5.85%7 5%2023 1 7 200 0.52%8 100%100%100%35 34 9 500 24 500 10 2.02-EPC 2.02 21 11 72+24 2022 12 31 0 12 51%51%1010 2023 1 11 2023 1 17 13 3.64 3.64 2021 291.04%22 2017 1 2019 2019 2020 2021 2021 7 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
报告吧