20221122_东方证券_食品饮料行业2023年度投资策略：白酒低估看好疫后复苏啤酒盈利弹性确定性较高_51页.pdf

|22Q2 3 4 6 9 23 22 22 23 22 23(600519)(000568)(000858)(600809)(600702)(00291)(600600)(600132)U8(000729)(09633)(605499)(002568)(600887)(02319)/2022 11 22 S0860517090002 021-63325888*7507 S0860513060001 BPU173 021-63325888*6079 S0860519080001 021-63325888*7524 S0860521070003 9 2022-10-26 2022-10-24 2023.2.7.8 2.1.8 2.2.14 2.2.1 14 2.2.2 19 2.2.3 22 2.3.24.24 3.1.24 3.2.27 3.3.29 3.4.31.31 4.1.31 4.2.34 4.2.1 34 4.2.2 36 4.2.3 38 4.3.41.41 5.1.41 5.2.43 5.3.45 5.4.47 3 1 GDP.7 2 20.7 3 GDP.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.9 10 2004.10 11 2015 300.11 12 PE.12 13 PE.12 14.13 15 2023 PE.13 16.14 17.14 18.14 19.14 20.15 21.15 22.16 23.16 24 M2.17 25.17 26.17 27.17 28 1573/.18 29 400-1000(/).18 30.18 31 2021.19 32 2022.19 33.19 34.19 4 35.20 36 2014H2.20 37.22 38.22 39.23 40.23 41.23 42 16-21 CAGR.23 43.24 44.24 45.25 46.25 47.25 48.25 49 17-21 CAGR.26 50 22.26 51.26 52.26 53.27 54.27 55.28 56.28 57.28 58.28 59.29 60.29 61.29 62.29 63.30 64.30 65.30 66 12 PE.30 67 U8.31 68.31 69.32 70 18-21 CAGR 21.32 71.33 72 PE.33 5 73.34 74 2020.34 75.35 76 2021.35 77 2016-2021.35 78.35 79.36 80 2022H1.36 81 2022H1.36 82 2010-2021.37 83 2021.37 84.38 85.38 86.38 87.38 88 2010-2021.39 89 2021.39 90 2010-2021.39 91 2021.39 92 RIO.40 93.40 94.41 95 RIO+.41 96.42 97.42 98.42 99.42 100 2021.43 101 2021.43 102.43 103.43 104.44 105 2022H1.44 106.44 107.44 108.45 109.45 110.45 6 111.46 112.46 113.46 114.47 115.47 1 2023.11 2.12 3.12 4.15 5.16 6.20 7 2022.22 8.26 9.33 10.33 11.39 12.42 7 22 22Q1Q3 GDP 4.8%0.4%3.9%3 4 6 9 23 1 GDP 2 20 2000 2021 GDP 40%53%2013 2021 9,430 18,931 CAGR+9.1%26,467 47,412 CAGR+7.6%2021 3 GDP 4 23-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%15Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q3GDP-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%第一产业 第二产业 第三产业010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021农村居民 城镇居民 8 22 400-800 22 23 22 23 22 23 2.1 2021 1,702 yoy+32.95%2017 2021 25%2017 18.2%2021 28.2%2.5pct 9 5 6 22 3 8 9 7 22 19.9%10.9%16.7%26.0%14.8%20.8%Q3 8 Wind 9 Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05001,0001,5002,000规模以上白酒企业利润总 额（亿 元）增速-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%同比增减（右）利润总额/营业收入-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0白酒当月产量（万吨）同比 两年复合增速0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,200营业收入（亿元）同比 两年复合增速0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500扣非利润（亿元）同比 两年复合增速 10 89 02 03 14 15 2020 2021 2022 10 2004 Wind 2015 1 15 17 300 13%25%56%2 18 18Q3-1.6%3 19 56%4 20 20H1 20H2 93%5 21 300 2%6 22H1 Q3 Q3 22 1-10 300-5%11 11 2015 300 Wind 2022 10 31 23 1 2023 12 1 1 2 3 25 3 4 21 22 6 8 9 10 10 10 11 23 15 1 15 17 2 18 PE 3 19 4 20 PE 20Q1/Q2 Q3 5 21 PE 6 22 PE 15 22 10 PE(TTM)16.7 71.4 32.7 30.7 10 2015 18%1 15 18 159%127%PE 15%2 19 20 PE 292%37%PE 185%3 21-1%21%PE-19%4 22 1-10-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%300 12 35%18%PE 45%Wind 11 18 23 24 24 21 12 PE Wind 10 31 13 PE Wind 2019 20%PE(12)19 20%2 12 27 19 22 33 24 20 26 19 2019 59 54 63 103 78 57 98 42 19 12 13 15 13 16 14 14 35 24 29 39 26 26 33 24 20%16%18%20%18%8%14%18%2014 59 54 63 103 170 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 12 16 14 7 33 22 27 36 31 29 35 21 37%29%29%26%8%5%14%34%2009 59 54 63 103 170 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 11 12 10 6 26 21 23 33 31 26 35 21 37%29%29%26%9%10%18%34%Wind 2022 11 4 PE 20 3 12 31 18 13 19 49 25 30 24 2019 52 40 25 36 49 31 71 71 13 12 11 12 16 10 13 13 36 22 16 23 32 22 31 28 020406080010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000白酒(中信)总市值（亿元）PE（TTM，右轴）-100%-50%0%50%100%150%PE 13 47%20%17%26%100%71%30%20%2014 52 40 58 70 49 31 71 71 11 12 11 12 12 9 12 13 30 21 18 23 26 21 33 27 49%20%5%11%100%72%30%20%2009 69 40 58 70 49 44 82 71 10 12 11 12 11 9 12 13 30 21 18 23 23 21 33 27 36%20%5%11%100%47%25%20%Wind 2022 11 4 2021 2018 14 Wind 2022 11 4 15 2023 PE Wind 2022 11 3-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%2008 2012-2014 2018 2021-2022 05101520253035402023 PE 14 2022 Q2 2 16 Wind 17 Wind 18 Wind 19 Wind 2.2 2.2.1 23 2022 Q2 Q3 Q2 0%2%4%6%8%10%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3 15 20 Wind 21 Wind 4/2022/5/31 2022/5/31“”();“+”2022/5/31 2022/6/28“14+7“7+3”2022/6/29“”“”2022/7/7“”“”2022/7/8“”“14”“7”2022/7/29 2022/9/8 48“”2022/9/16“”2022/9/29“”2022 11 11 20 7+3 5+3 01000200030004000500060002020/032020/042020/062020/072020/092020/112020/122021/022021/032021/052021/072021/082021/102021/122022/012022/032022/042022/062022/082022/09:()0510152022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/092022/102022/102022/102022/102022/102022/102022/102022/10:():()16 5 1 7+3 5+3 2 3 7 7 4 5 7 7 5 6 7 48 2 1 8 9 Ct 35 10 7+3 5+3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2019 22 Wind 23 Wind 2018 02004006008001000120014002019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01:050001000015000200002021/042021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/10:()()17 2018 2018 2018 M2 24 M2 Wind 25 Wind 2022 2021 2021 2021 2022 M6 2022 26 Wind 27 2021 960-990 1000 2021 1573 915 30 M6+20 2022 024681012142018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/07M2:%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/07:()0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%020004000600080001000012000-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/1 30 M6 18 28 1573/29 400-1000(/)400 800 200 300 30 30 2021 2022Q1 500600700800900100011002019/9/17 2020/9/17 2021/9/17 2022/9/17 1573 020040060080010002020/3/31 2021/3/31 2022/3/31 30 M6+20 19 31 2021 32 2022 2022 2022 Q1 Q3 7.1%1.6%33 34 2.2.2-200-1000100200300400 0%20%40%60%80%100%0510152025303540()-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 82020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 20 2012 2014 2014 35 36 2014H2 Wind 6 日期 发布机构 会议/政策 主要内容 2012.4.18 2012.10.1 2012.12.4 2013.1.9 2013.2.20 2013.3.26 2013.12.1 2014.2.7 2014.2.12 2014.7.9 2015.1.22 2015.10.16 2016.7.21 0%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2014 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002012-05 2013-05 2014-05 2015-05 21 2016.9.25 2017.8.21 2017.9.6 2017.9.22 2017.9.30 2017.11.28 2017.12.29 2018.6.17 2020.4.7 2020.6.12 2020.7.1 2020.7.27 2021.12.20 2022.4.9 2022.9.26)6 2022 2022 1 22 7 2022 2022/3/10“”“”2022/4/25 2021 2022/6/10 2022/6/30“”2022/10/18“”2.2.3+2010-2021 18%44%57%84%37 Wind 38 Wind 2018Q1 2022Q3 89.7%91.4%92.5%95.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%0%20%40%60%80%100%23 39 Wind 40 Wind 2016-2021 41 42 16-21 CAGR 2014 474 2022Q3 117 2.2 87%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 0%50%100%150%200%250%0500100015002000250030003500/0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%高端酒企 全国化次 高端酒 企区域酒企 24 43 Wind 44 Wind 2.3(600519)(000568)1573 1952 000858(600809)(600702)+3.1 0100200300400500()0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0()25 2013 2020 3,411 7.0%21 3,562 5.6%22 1.4%2,948 22 7-9 10.8%12.0%5.1%45 46 1 99 04 CAGR 8.1%0.3%2 05 13 CAGR 8.3%5.2%3 14-17 13 CAGR-1.8%3.9%4 18 2018 2021 5.6%2.2%2018 2021-0.1%3.7%47 48 2017 2021 CAGR-1.7%-0.1%-3.4%CAGR 4.7%3.9%7.1%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005006002020/2/292020/4/302020/6/302020/8/312020/10/312020/12/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/2/282022/4/302022/6/302022/8/31-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%99-04 05-13 14-17 18-21 CAGR CAGR 26 2022 5.8%4.2%5.8%49 17-21 CAGR 20-21 50 22 2022 1-10 23%7%PE 27%11 18 PE 40 Wind 11 18 2023 2024 PE 34 29 51 Wind 10 31 52 Wind 882477.WI 2019 38%29%2019 10%8 12 64 23 33 33 2019 95 49 100 56 45 20 25 24 58 25 39 35 38%11%10%29%2014 95 230 100 56 20 20 21 19-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%CAGR CAGR0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%020406080100020004000600080001000012000 PE(TTM)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%PE 27 54 27 37 33 59%2%14%39%2009 95 230 199 56 13 20 21 18 50 28 40 31 63%2%6%40%Wind 2022 11 16 3.2 22 1-9 26%2021 2022 22 1-9 23%53 Wind 54 Wind 2022 3 3 11%2021 8 9 9%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01002003004005002015/1/312015/6/302015/11/302016/4/302016/9/302017/2/282017/7/312017/12/312018/5/312018/10/312019/3/312019/8/312020/1/312020/6/302020/11/302021/4/302021/9/302022/2/282022/7/31/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002015/1/312015/7/312016/1/312016/7/312017/1/312017/7/312018/1/312018/7/312019/1/312019/7/312020/1/312020/7/312021/1/312021/7/312022/1/312022/7/31/28 55 Wind 56 Wind 21 Q2 21Q4 22Q3 5.2%57 58 2015 22H1 28.2%0.8pct 22H1 1 2 3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002015/1/312015/7/312016/1/312016/7/312017/1/312017/7/312018/1/312018/7/312019/1/312019/7/312020/1/312020/7/312021/1/312021/7/312022/1/312022/7/31/-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002015/1/312015/7/312016/1/312016/7/312017/1/312017/7/312018/1/312018/7/312019/1/312019/7/312020/1/312020/7/312021/1/312021/7/312022/1/312022/7/31/-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3-10%-5%0%5%10%15%29 59 60 3.3 2021 6%2018 22H1 18H1 4.8pct 3.6pct 8.0pct 61 62 2020 2021 7%22 10 2019 2021 15 61 2021 13 22%00.050.10.150.20.250.30.3514H114H215H115H216H116H217H117H218H118H219H119H220H120H221H121H222H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30 63 64 22 12 PE 30 1-9 28%65 datayes 66 12 PE Wind U8 U8 2020 10 2021 22 U8 2%3%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0102030405060702019 2020 2021-50%0%50%100%150%050010001500200025003000 0204060801001202021/1/82021/2/102021/3/192021/4/232021/5/282021/7/22021/8/62021/9/102021/10/152021/11/192021/12/242022/1/282022/3/112022/4/152022/5/202022/6/242022/7/292022/9/22022/10/14 12 PE 31 67 U8 68 Wind 3.4(00291)4+4 superX(600600)+ASP(600132)6+6 1664 27(000729)U8 U8 Plus+V10 2022 4.1 05101520252020 2021U8 0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 32 1 90 03 2 03 08 3 08 15 4 2015 2021 6346 11-21 CAGR 5.4%2015 21 2164 1085 1026 753 3 18-21CAGR 24%10%10%7%4%69 70 18-21 CAGR 21 2022 1-10 30%11%PE 20%11 18 PE 32 Wind 11 18 2023 2024 PE 27 22-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%01000200030004000500060007000200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%18-21CAGR 2021 33 71:Wind 10 31 72 PE Wind 886044.WI PE 2019 40-60%9 12 48 41 20 13 14 21 2019 99 82 50 22 18 35 0 0 0 0 0 11 49 36 20 14 12 16 49%50%40%57%78%41%2014 99 82 50 35 21 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 16 17 11 15 49%50%40%36%64%43%2009 99 82 50 45 21 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 10 12 49%50%40%28%64%43%Wind 2022 11 16 NFC 10 N FC 010203040506070020004000600080001000012000140002014/122015/052015/102016/032016/082017/012017/062017/122018/052018/102019/032019/082020/022020/072020/122021/052021/102022/032022/08 PE(TTM,)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%PE 34 NFC R I O 2021 2200 1200 43 50 60 550 110 70 2 2-27 C A GR 6%-23%-8%6%13%2020 NFC 21-26 2018 2021 71%86%IDF 2015 1 2030 1.4 36%78%73 74 2020 4.2 4.2.1 2010 2021 652 2164 CAGR 10.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021202020192018 35 2021 CR5 75%27%75 76 2021 Frost&Sullivan 2020 1032 2021 1085 5.1%Frost&Sullivan 2016 2020 CAGR 37%2%7%CAGR 1%2021 54%75%77 2016-2021 78 ITO EN 2016 0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002500 27%21%10%10%7%25%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%9009501000105011001150120012502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2000 2005 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 36 79 22H1 4.8%51.5%1.0%4.2%-23.7%9.4%3.0%50.6%-2.8%0.5%-23.8%9.4%22 80 2022H1 81 2022H1 4.2.2 2019 90 00 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0501001502002022H1-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0102030405060702022H1 37 2020 2021 550 16-21CAGR+9.8%2021 1/5 1/2 82 2010-2021 83 2021 22 Q1 Q3 26%44%41%22Q3 2600 288 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0100200300400500600 XS 38 84 85 6 10 6 86 Wind 87 Wind 4.2.3 18-21 9.03 21.50 CAGR 33.5%2021 38%89.4%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 050010001500200025003000-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02000400060008000100002020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/30/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%44004600480050005200540056005800600062002020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/30/39 88 2010-2021 89 2021 2021 256.0 170.6 11.2%6.9%2016-2021 CAGR 24.5%9.9%2021 21.5 0.2/90 2010-2021 91 2021 14-15 Rio Rio 11 21 1.2 KA CVS LKA-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0()-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 40-KA-Rio 25 KA RIO 2022 RIO Rio 2019 RIO 2019 2022 9 3 8 7 9 9 92 RIO 93 2021 3.2 12.3 5.9 4.1 48%2022 1-9 23%9-7%01000200030004000500060007000 41 94 95 RIO+datayes 4.3(09633)(605499)250(002568)90%21 43%9 5.1 2021 4687 10.3%2022H1 1.0%024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000RIO 42 96 97 2021 2432.4 1401.5 1994.5 384.6 131.2 2021 25.0%22.8%9.8%2022 98 99 2022 1-10 27%2019 30%12 12 17 17 29 21 21 20 25 35 25 2019 35 34 63 43 60 31 68 88 79 15 13 26 15 17 16 19 25 17 22 22 40 23 25 21 24 33 28 11%19%8%19%8%28%12%17%14%2014 35 34 263 43 60 57 68 88 318 14 13-1,968 15 17 16 19 25 15 21 22 44 23 25 22 24 36 29 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022H1 0500100015002000250030003500-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%43 16%21%90%21%8%10%12%17%3%2009 35 34 263 59 60 57 68 88 318 14 13-1,968 15 17 16 19 6 13 21 22 46 25 25 22 24 33 28 16%21%90%13%8%10%12%36%4%Wind 2022 11 16 2021 2021 100 2021 101 2021 22Q1 Q2 Q3 7.0%-4.5%-4.9%8.2%0.9%-1.9%102 103 5.2-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40501001502002502019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50204060801001201402019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 44 19 20 21 22H1 100%100%85%25%500%150%80%40%22H1 40%20%104 105 2022H1 2021 131.2 22.8%2027 262.1 22-27 CAGR 12.9%2021 28.2%2022 29.7%2022 2022 106 107 2020-2021 2022 187.3 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%新乳业 伊利股份2022H10%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%050100150200250300200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E 0%50%100%1