20230204_开源证券_电力设备行业证券研究报告：特高压建设有望迎来高峰期解决清洁能源跨区互济瓶颈_46页.pdf

1/45 2023 02 04 HJT-2023.1.30 2023-2023.1.15-2023.1.8 S0790522080001 S0790122090010 2023 5200 2022-2024 2023 2023 2022 24 14 2022 10 3 4 0-)2 2024 2023-4 2023 2023 1 2 3 4 5-36%-24%-12%0%12%24%2022-02 2022-06 2022-10 300 2/45 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 2.12 2.1.14 2.2.18 2.2.1.22 2.2.2.24 2.2.3.28 2.2.4.31 2.3.33 2.3.1.33 2.3.2 2023.34 2.4.35 2.4.1.35 2.4.2.36 3.40 3.1.40 3.2.40 3.3.41 3.4.41 3.5.42 3.6 GIL.42 4.43 1.5 2.6 3.6 4 2100kWh/m2.6 5.6 6.7 7.8 8.12 9 GIS.13 10.14 11.15 12.16 13 110kV.16 14 110kV/.16 15 110kV.17 0YCXwPmRpMmNpRpMsPpQpOaQcMbRnPoOtRtQiNnNsQjMnMqN6MrQsOMYpOzRNZrRtN 3/45 16 110kV/.17 17.17 18.17 19 110kV.18 20 110kV/.18 21 110kV.18 22 110kV/.18 23.19 24.19 25.19 26.20 27 2015.21 28 2020 12.21 29-.24 30.24 31.24 32.27 33-.27 34 800kV-.28 35 500kV.28 36 1990 B.T.Ooi.28 37.29 38 IGBT.29 39.30 40.31 41-800kV.31 42.32 43.32 44.32 45.33 46.33 47 22%.36 48 GIS.36 49 2021.37 50 2020.37 51 2021 GIS.37 52 2020 GIS.37 53 25%.38 54.38 55 2021.38 56 2020.38 57 2021.39 58 2020.39 59 2021.39 60.40 4/45 61.40 1 2035.7 2.8 3 7900.10 4 2.11 5.13 6 2006.20 7.22 8 16.22 9.25 10 20.25 11.28 12.29 13 VSC-HVDC LCC-HVDC.30 14.33 15 2021.34 16 16.34 17 2020 1000kV 670/.35 18 2020 800kV 497/.36 19 2020 220kV 1283/.36 20.43 5/45 1 2020 9 2030 2060 2021 3-1 2017 1.1 4 6/45 2 3 2020 12 2013 08 2100/A B C D 1750 14001750 10501400 1050/4 2100kWh/m2 5 2015 2015 2018 6.87 2019 3.56 3.9 57%7/45 6 2020 1.2 2035 20%1 2035 60 7000 8/45 2035 7 2035 2021 12823 17601 2 2021 2021 478 1087 480 2025 330 2022 150 346 665 3000 2025 2200 800 420 835 2800 2025 1000 9/45 550 2921 2546 9700 2025 4300 5400 1412 3996 10000+2025 1 50%60%1384 1455 1850 2025 4000 1400 450 1146 1725/2025 5000 65%30%30%1632 896/100 2025 4580 1650 1354 2408/196 527/2025 1000 1200 1137 580/2025 1 397 881/2025 1.3 10/45 86%31 1090 1500 12823 17601/5010 2021 2638 2025 1800 410 500 1500 800 3 7900 1800 410 410 1030 480 500+450 500 1500 500kV 2025 2800 1500 800.2025 2800 800 5010 11/45 9500 2021 11 4.55 2 2022 2 2 1.5 0.5 2.55 1.65 0.9 2.84 0.37 1.34 4 2 3900 800 660 400 660 1000 400 1000 400 500 500 500 2100 400 200 1000 400 500 600 200 4500 1000 532 1100 332 1100 400 1100 400 600 200 600 200 2300 400 200 1100 400 0 600 0 0 600 0 0 3700 200 2620 600 400 600 396 12/45 400 800 300 624.500 200 500 200 800 200-3500 20000 2800 4212 2 8 66kV 330kV 66kV 110kV 220kV 330kV 1000kV 800kV 13/45 330kV 500kV 750kV 500kV 600kV 1000kV 800kV 1000kV 800kV 1100kV 5 1000kV 330kV 500kV 750kV 35kV 66kV 110kV 220kV 800kV 1100kV 400kV 500kV 600kV 1 2 1 2 9 GIS 14/45 10 2.1 2002 1 2002-2008 2 2009-2014 2008 2009 3 2015-2020 2015 4 2021 3500 15/45 2023 1 16 2022 2022 5012 2.0%11 3500 2021 2022 2022 5012 2.0%2008 2009 2010 2015 2015 2016 2020 2021 2023 1 11 2023 5200-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01000200030004000500060002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy%16/45 12 110kV 110kV/2021 110kV 4.7 11.32%110kV/3.1 kV 3.33%110kV 110kV 2020 110kV 114.2 110kV 52.3 kV 13 110kV 14 110kV/-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000200030004000500060002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%yoy%-20%-10%0%10%20%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 110kV 110kV yoy%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.01.02.03.04.020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 110kV/110kV/yoy%17/45 15 110kV 16 110kV/6700 2009 912 90.40%2015 2008 110kV 220kV 500kV 219 94 166 2021 675 125 195 17 18 110kV 110kV/2021 110kV 1.3 11.66%110kV/0.1 kV 72.60%110kV 110kV 2021 110kV 26.2 110kV 11.3 kV 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0 110kV 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0 110kV/-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001000120020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 yoy%0%20%40%60%80%100%20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021110kV 220kV 500kV 18/45 19 110kV 20 110kV/21 110kV 22 110kV/2.2 1000kV 800kV 80%75%8003000km-200%0%200%400%600%800%0.00.51.01.52.02009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 110kV 110kV yoy%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0.00.20.40.60.81.02009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 110kV/110kV/yoy%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 110kV 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0 110kV/19/45 23 2021 42156 24416 24 25 1.131.291.441.541.60.420.480.540.610.6900.511.522017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1693724637271143456335868421566828854611458161972076424416010000200003000040000500002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20/45 26 2006(2006-2008)2006 8-2008 12(2011-2013)(2014-2016)2014 5(2018)24 14 2022 10 3 13 2022 12 36 6 2006 2006-2010 2011-2013 2014-2017 2014 5 2018-2018 9 24 14 21/45 27 2015 2015 28 2020 14 12 2020 22/45 2.2.1 7 500kV 1GW 500km 10%/1000km 55m/GW 1000kV 4-5GW 1000-1500km 2.5%3.3%/1000km 18.327.5m/GW 1000kV 16 8 16 kV)1-1000 2-1000 3-1000 4-1000 5-1000 6-1000 7-1000 23/45 kV)-8-1000 9-1000 10-1000 11-1000 12-1000 13-1000 14-1000 15-1000 16-1000-1000kV 6000MV A 654-21000MV A 2*648.7 GIL 1000kV 5.8 35-15000MV A 2*1050 24/45 29-2.2.2 HVDC 300-1200 3000 4 500kV 800kV 30 31 500kV 800kV 800kV/8GW 500kV/3GW 6.94%2.79%2.16 1.56 25/45 9 500kV 3GW 1000km 6.94%/1000km 2.16/km kW 120MW/m 800kV 8GW 2000km 2.79%/1000km 1.56/km kW 235MW/m 2022 12 30 800kV 20 10 20 kV)1-800 2-800 3-800 4-800 5-800 6-800 7-800 8-800 9-800 10-800 11-800 26/45 kV)12/-/1100 13-800 14-800 15-/800 16-800 17-800 18-800 19-800 20-800 27/45 32-33-2018 3 29 242.49 1452 28/45 34 800kV-35 500kV 2021 2021 2.2.3 18 11 1 18 2 1954-1977 3 1972 4 1997 1990 B.T.Ooi 1997 2020 800kV 36 1990 B.T.Ooi 29/45 12 SPWM 3%SPWM 2%OPWM 1.5%1%37 38 IGBT 30/45 13 VSC-HVDC LCC-HVDC(LCC)(VSC)()IGBT()1100kV/12000MW 800kV/5000MW 5060%(MMC)2 0 39 31/45 40-800kV LCC 41-800kV 2.2.4 32/45 42 43 44 33/45 700kV/3400MW 600kV/2200MW 2020 11 200 300kV/5001000MW 100150/7001050/500 600kV/20003000MW 200260/14001820/45 46 14 kV 600 800 1100 220 400 800 1200 kV/30 20 43 65 90 75 110 110 kV/-21 33 39-68 110 110 2.3 2.3.1 2022 4 26 2022 5 34/45 15 2021 2021.03 2035 2021.04 2021 2021.10 2022.03 2022.03 2022 2022.03 2022.12 2.3.2 2023 2-3-6-1.5-2 2024 2023 24 14 2022 10 3 13 4 0-)4 4-2023-4 2023 1 5 2023 16 16 kV A GW kV)1-38 287/1000 2-71 238 600 4 1000 35/45 kV A GW kV)3-200 1940/800 4-200 910/800 5-145 2283/10 800 6-/1467/800 7-/1000/800 8-/900/800 9-/2300/800 10-/660 11-/800 12-/1000 13-90 463/8 1000 14/1000 15 200 1344 1300/1000 16-70 140/1000 2.4 2.4.1 2020 1000kV 670/800kV 497/220kV 1283/17 2020 1000kV 670/2017 2018 2019 2020 35kV 49 50 110kV 66 66 77 79 220kV 94 112 120 123 330kV 106 113 131 133 36/45 2017 2018 2019 2020 500kV 236 253 264 268 750kV 201 231 299 305 1000kV 671 593 688 670 18 2020 800kV 497/2017 2018 2019 2020 500kV 249 250 800kV 387 465 495 497 19 2020 220kV 1283/2017 2018 2019 2020 35kV 305 293 347 361 110kV 555 874 565 585 220kV 1502 2820 1245 1283 2.4.2 22%22%43%32%3%GIS GIS 58%21%47 22%48 GIS 2021 2020 GIS 2021,43%,32%,22%,3%GIS,58%,21%,15%,2%,2%,2%,1%GIS 37/45 2020 49 2021 50 2020 51 2021 GIS 52 2020 GIS 25%47%26%2%GIS 50%27%12%,56.5%,33.6%,7.1%,2.4%,0.4%,35%,30%,30%,4%,47.1%,22.0%,20.3%,10.2%,0.4%,45%,30%,20%,5%38/45 53 25%54 2021 2020 55 2021 56 2020 2021 30.3%27.8%20.7 21.2%2020 30%20%20%20%,47%,26%,25%,2%,50%,27%GIS,12%,5%,2%,2%,2%GIS,57.6%,16.2%,15.5%,3.9%,6.8%,50%,30%,15%,5%39/45 57 2021 58 2020 52%37.1%8.6%CR3 98%59 2021 IGBT MMC,30.3%,27.8%,21.2%,20.7%,30%,20%,20%,20%,10%,52.0%,37.1%,8.6%,2.3%40/45 60 61 3 3.1 IT IGBT IGBT 1200V 1700V 3300V 4500V IGBT 3300V 1700V 1200V IGBT 2022 4500VIGBT IGBT PCS/BMS/EMS 3.2/,65.1%,12.2%,0.6%,1.2%,20.9%,58%,23%,7%,7%,4%,1%41/45 30 750 3.3 800 800-1000 2021 22.5 50%3.4 11 12 42/45 14 3 3800 2022 3 13 525kV GIS GIS 3.5 500kV 2021 3 1000kV 12 800kV 3.6 GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL GIL 330kV-1000kV(GIL)GIL GIL GIL 2022 12-(220kV GIL)7296.53 43/45 220kV GIL GIL EPC 20 PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 600406.SH 26.13 66.6 78.3 91.1 26.3 22.4 19.2 600312.SH 8.48 2.6 4.4 6.1 44.3 26.1 18.8 000400.SZ 22.13 8.8 10.9 13.6 25.3 20.5 16.4 002028.SZ 43.54 12.2 16.0 20.0 27.5 20.9 16.8 002270.SZ 8.54 3.4 4.2 5.1 22.7 18.3 14.9 300617.SZ 37.47 2.8 3.9 5.2 22.6 16.3 12.1 Wind Wind 2023 2 3 4 44/45 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 500 45/45 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 9 100044 1 B 5 710065 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告