20230105_民生证券_通信行业：数字经济为阳基建投资为阴_77页.pdf
*01*2023 1 4/*&ICT-1.3 2023 400G 800G 800G&IDC 2023+1*C O N T E N T S-02 03 01 042*3*1.14*5 20 toC toB wind 1*To B 6 wind 44.6%41.9%40.8%27.7%25.8%24.7%21.3%22.5%24.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022H1 53.8%51.6%50.1%48.2%14.3%14.0%13.7%13.0%11.3%14.1%16.7%20.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 52.0%51.6%50.2%46.3%41.9%7.4%9.2%10.5%11.1%10.9%10.3%11.1%13.2%16.1%19.7%0%50%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 7,368 7,459 7,681 8,483 7,235 1,167 1,063 1,078 1,159 985-20%0%20%05,00010,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3%2,909 2,905 3,038 3,279 2,640 41 50 55 63 68-10%0%10%20%30%01,0002,0003,0004,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3%3,749 3,722 3,899 4,342 3,578 204 205 209 260 246-10%0%10%20%30%02,0004,0006,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3%2*To B 2303294275483690%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1%765 840 989 589 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002019 2020 2021 2022H1%1262 1594 1108 0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002020 2021 2022H1%DICT 22H1 1108 234 21.1%AI IP 22H1 589 280.8 47.7%IDC IT 22H1 369 187 50.7%2011324223487 138 279 281 24 38 163 187 0%200%400%600%01002003004005002019 2020 2021 2022H1%27*&IDC 2022 IaaS/PaaS/SaaS 165.8 2021 274 IaaS 27.3%PaaS 45.4%IaaS+PaaS 2022 30.7%2021 48.7%18%2020 9 2022 7 13 31 IDC IaaS+PaaS IaaS 37.9%36.7%33.5%11.2%11.1%10.7%10.9%10.8%11.1%8.3%8.9%9.4%7.5%7.4%9.0%24.2%25.1%26.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 AWS 38.6%37.8%34.5%11.1%10.9%10.3%11.2%11.4%11.6%9.6%10.3%11.0%6.5%6.4%8.1%23.0%23.2%24.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 AWS 28*9 IAAS 11.0%34.5%11.6%22H1 115.2%IaaS 105.0%PaaS+SaaS 149.1%70.9%IDC 2022 7 CloudOS4.0 22H1 2*10 22H1 2*11 22H1 2*&12 2020 4 2022 1 2025 2022 10 2022 12 1 2 2022 12 3 2B&2C*13 B 2B&2C PB 19 5G ARPU ARPU 5G PB Wind 2023 1 3 4()PB 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E600941.SH 15371 8482.58 9178.15 9848.16 10537.53 1159.37 1243.91 1338.82 1425.67 1.21 1.17 601728.SH 3981 4341.59 4862.58 5421.78 5963.95 259.52 299.31 346.30 398.50 0.91 0.89 600050.SH 1568 3278.54 3546.67 3845.02 4125.49 63.05 83.40 91.31 101.81 1.00 0.97*1.214*IDC 5G 2022 930 7.24%5G 21 43.8%36.6%4G 21 2.1%1.1%4G/5G 12.1%21 19.9%30.0%62%ICT 400G Wi-Fi6 IDC 2023 ICT 2,820 13%2022 8%2021-2026 ICT 1150%5%10%15%01002003004005002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E ICT*16 ICT ICT wind 2023 1 3 wind 2 PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E000063 1153 1145.22 1345.40 1497.47 1670.30 68.13 86.42 98.24 109.87 13 12 000938 583 676.38 768.48 895.22 1024.11 21.48 24.02 30.53 36.17 24 19 301165*205 91.89 113.48 144.37 183.08 4.58 5.61 7.62 10.11 37 27/002396 116 135.49 164.04 212.14 264.88 5.42 7.37 9.85 12.39 16 12 301191 40 22.08 26.22 36.13 48.18 1.69 1.98 2.60 3.16 20 15*1.317&*21 11 150 20 5G 8 5G+150 500 3 70 20 10 200 21 11 2025 80%85%68%45%21 12 5G+5G 2025 30%60%21 12 2025 70%500 70%50%150 200 120 22 1 2025 2020 14.7%45%22 4 2022 2022 5G 10 5G 200 1000 1 10 8 5 500 APP 20 10 10 118*+19 15-64 2011 2010-2021 15-64 74.50%68.30%15-64 2014 2021 15-64 2013 4515 2021 9.25 11.7%2017-2021 9.2%0%20%40%020000400006000080000100000197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020 1978-2021 wind 1990-2021 wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202065 15-64 0-14 2*R&D 20 R&D 2021 R&D 1.69 24.26%14.86%2021 3,844 9.31%2.24%2011-2021 wind 2011-2021 R&D wind 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%05000100001500020000R&D()R&D-20%0%20%0100020003000400050002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()(%)3*21 58%48%42%35%30%28%27%38%46%52%59%64%65%66%4%6%6%6%6%7%7%0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Fieldbus Industrial Ethernet Wireless HMS HMS 2022 2021 8%10%4%8%2016-2022 38%66%58%27%2016-2022 Fieldbus PROFIBUS 1987 Modbus 1979()CC-Link 1996 DeviceNet 1994(-)CAN 1986 AS-interface 1994 FF 1994 ISP World FIP Industrial Ethernet EtherNet/IP 2000 PROFINET 2001 EtherCAT 2003 Modbus-TCP/IP 1996()Powerlink 2001 CC-Link IE 2007 Wireless WIA-PA 2008 WIA-FA 2014 WirelessHART 2007 HART ISA100.11a 2005 ISA 4*5G+TSN 22 TSN TSN TSN TSN 5G 4.0 TSN 4.0 TSN 5G 5G TSN TSN 5G TSN 5G+TSN 4*23 IDC IDC 2021 19.8 127.9 46%2021 CR5 25%2021 2021 IDC 6.8%5.4%4.4%4.1%3.7%75.7%21.8%19.1%17.4%16.2%12.9%8.5%4.1%5*24 IC+wind 2023 1 3 PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E688080 23 4.50 4.25 5.47 6.99 1.05 0.79 1.12 1.55 29 20 688618 41 2.54 3.43 4.60 5.93 0.60 0.88 1.17 1.56 47 35 300353 53 9.41 10.54 13.33 16.40 0.05 0.23 0.81 1.50 232 66 6*25*2.126*27 1*&+28+6 Ku Ka L 1 2GHz S 24GHz C 48GHz X 812GHz Ku 1218GHz Ka 26.5 40GHz Q/V3646GHz/4675GHz Space X StarLink 11,927 2027 1,130km Ku,Ka,V OneWeb OneWeb 2,468 2027 1,200km Ku,Ka,V,E 75 2018 780km-STL 2,956 2022 1,200km V Kuiper 3,236-590km/610km/630km Ka FacebookFacebook Athena Project77-1,200km-Telesat Telesat 298 2023 1,248km/1,000km Ka AAC ClydeKepler 140 2022-Ku/Ka Astrome Space Net 150 2020 1,400km Yaliny Yaliny 135-600km-KLEO ConnectKLEO 624-1,050km/1,425km Ka 4,600-1,400km-2*29 SpaceX Oneweb O3B ITU 12992 GW-A59Q GW-2 GW-A59 3 6080 GW-2 4 6912 ITU 7 GW 2027 GW-A591 590km 85 16 30 4802 600km 50 40 50 20003 508km 55 60 60 3600 6080GW-A591 1145km 30 48 36 17282 1145km 40 48 36 17283 1145km 50 48 36 17284 1145km 60 48 36 1728 6912 12992 GW 3*2022 2 22+&2019 2022 20 2022 4 12 200 120 100 5 10 430*31 300366.SZ 688387.SH T/R 001270.SZ 688270.SH 688375.SH wind 2023 1 3 wind 5()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E688270.SH 133.14 1.91 2.58 3.78 5.22 0.99 1.41 2.06 2.68 94 65 001270.SZ*137.90 2.11 2.95 4.22 5.85 1.60 1.82 2.46 3.29 76 56/688375.SH 392.37 25.09 35.40 48.85 65.98 3.68 5.35 7.57 10.45 73 52 300366.SZ 70.11 18.67 21.23 24.25 27.89-0.22 0.12 1.02 2.01/69 688387.SH-U 174.70 56.66 71.58 88.63 108.83-11.84-8.16-4.37 1.28/*2.232&*CRU 2021 2022 20 CRU 10%4.30-4.40/2022 G.652.D/CRU 133*34 APAC 4G 22 11 1,863 64%22 1-11 16,119 99%2017-2022 11 1,862.73 0500100015002000250017-01 17-07 18-01 18-07 19-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07()()1*22 23 KW%2021 2022 2023 2021 26.38GW 2021 16.9GW 11 1.8 2022 1.24GW 2022 25 100GW 30 200GW 50 1,000GW 22 23-25-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%05001000150020002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(kw(%)235*36 wind 2023 1 3*wind PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E601869 181 95.36 145.36 184.56 214.13 7.09 11.46 16.45 21.65 16 11 600487 400 412.71 486.80 563.89 637.01 14.36 19.27 26.13 34.27 21 15 600522 577 461.63 390.39 450.36 516.29 1.72 34.72 46.51 55.57 17 12 600105 49 39.10 50.09 63.48 77.98 1.21 2.14 3.59 4.91 23 14 002498*144 89.81 100.59 122.36 142.19 7.77 8.08 10.53 13.44 18 14/3*2.337&*38 wind Canalys 118.6 25.0 26.6 36.2 31.0 32.4 33.5 37.3 32.9 35.6 47.0 53.1 68.0 74.6 110.6 148.2 120.8 142.9 157.5 189.4 149.5 157.2 163.8 25.1 28.3 35.4 43.1 73.0 54.8 52.8 70.8 46.4 61.3 67.3 60.5 60.1 53.9 54.1 54.8 59.4 55.0 68.2 63.8 97.9 68.3 72.8 17.0 22.8 21.3 25.9 29.3 39.8 36.0 37.1 25.7 40.5 33.9 35.5 37.7 47.4 49.1 41.7 50.9 64.5 58.1 58.7 53.4 68.7 62.8 12.7 14.4 17.6 22.6 28.1 34.6 33.4 43.7 38.4 36.3 35.3 41.0 35.6 32.6 36.9 46.1 42.7 46.1 43.1 53.7 54.4 75.7 93.8-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%050100150200250300350400450(AMAZON)(ALPHABET)-A(MICROSOFT)META%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05010015020025030021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 AWS Azure AWS%Azure%CAPEX 22Q3 CAPEX Azure 30%+AWS 27%Meta 2023 CAPEX 340390 310320*39 800G wind 2023 1 3 1 10G 40G 5 40G 100G 4 100G 400G 3 1 2 3 ASIC 2023 800G 800G 800G 2020 12 ECOC2020 800G 1 3 2()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E300308.SZ 227 77.0 100.12 133.93 159.52 8.8 12.04 15.37 19.26 19 15*40 Omdia 2 2020 10G PON 2022 11 8707 10G PON 1416 630.3 2023 10G PON 14.8%2022 11 10G PON 10G PON&/2022 22Q1 PON 10G PON Omdia 22Q1 PON PON OLT 380 51%ONT/ONU 3730 16%10G PON 10G GPON OLT 210+6%+110%10G EPON OLT 31.3-3%26.5%10G GPON ONT/ONU 250 330%10G EPON ONT/ONU 130-26.5%110%10 OLT 200%EMEA RoAO 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0100002000030000400005000060000700002020.52020.62020.72020.82020.92020.102020.112020.122021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021.72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.122022.22022.32022.42022.52022.62022.72022.82022.92022.102022.11%*41 wind ICC 2023 1 3 2()PE2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E300548.SZ 46 11.54 14.60 21.60 26.60 1.62 1.75 2.51 3.19 26 18 10G PON 10G PON 6070%2023 10G PON 20%DFB 2021 10G DFB 20%A&know-how IDM&*2.442&*&43 wind 2023 1 3 2022 2023 1 2 3 4 1550nm 2023 1 2 3()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E300620.SZ 66 6.68 8.48 10.55 13.07 1.31 1.56 2.01 2.50 42 33 688195.SH 30 3.03 4.18 6.03 8.27 0.52 0.90 1.37 1.88 34 22 1*2.544IDC+23*EQIX DLR IRM IDC 3FQ22 9.9%/5.2%/13.9%IDC 3Q21 IDC REITs ESG IDC PUE 2023 IDC 2023 IDC 40%50%60%70%80%90%-10%0%10%20%30%40%051015202530354045Equinix DLR IRM Equinix YoY DLR YoY IRM YoY()145*2021 1,500 30.7%+REITs IDC IDC REITs 2030 50%PUE+IDC IDC 2021 12 2021 513 680 878 1,168 1,500 1,901 0%10%20%30%40%-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,0002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E我国市场收入 同比增速(右)(亿元)45.7%24.7%22.5%5.3%1.8%互联网企业电信行业IT 服务金融服务企业146*2017 2021 166 520 CAGR 30%83 420 81%2022 29%540 2021 2166 2.6%1.14%IDC HVDC IDC IDC 831672373094205408359789210013001002003004005006007008002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E()50%81%45%43%10%2%IT 设备消耗制冷设备消耗供配电消耗照明及其他消耗147*IDC IEA 2022 2 24 4.72GW 11.58GW(2022 10 27)3.49GW 5.42GW 2021 3 9-3 16 30%148*IDC IEA 010020030040050005001,0001,5002,0002,500(GW)(USD/MWh)010020030040050005001,0001,5002,0002,500(GW)(USD/MWh)010020030040050002004006008001,0001,2001,400(GW)(USD/MWh)010020030040004,0008,00012,00016,00020,000(GW)(USD/MWh)149*50 IDC 22-24 4.92/6.77/8.47 2023 1 3 PE 50/36/29x IDC 22 24 2.37/2.82/3.42 2023 1 3 P/E 64/54/44x Wind 2023 1 3 wind 2()()()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E300738.SZ*66 12.05 14.42 19.74 25.39 1.45 1.80 2.40 3.07 37 27 21/300383.SZ*153 77.00 77.72 84.47 91.88 8.36 8.18 9.54 10.95 19 16 14/603881.SH*85 12.06 14.71 18.35 22.44 1.11 1.05 1.74 2.41 81 49 35/002335.SZ 244 48.66 60.05 72.52 90.02 4.39 4.92 6.77 8.47 50 36 29 002837.SZ 152 22.28 27.26 36.03 47.78 2.05 2.37 2.82 3.42 64 54 44*51*3.152*5G 0501001502002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E示波器 射频类仪器 波形发生器 电源与电子负载 其他产品(亿美元)100.95104.24112.55137.81137.12 136.76140.26145.81153.49162.74172.380102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E示波器 射频类仪器 波形发生器 电源与电子负载 其他产品(亿美元)26.2928.7231.6844.1846.1248.0850.3953.1456.4760.2564.81 153*2021 2021 2,500 9,089 90%2020 6%18.1%9.1%ICT 15.5%12.8%ICT 5.7%-17.0%-4.3%-3.4%2020-2.2%9.1%18.1%0.9%3.0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40欧洲 美国 中国 日本 其他2019 2020 同比增速(右)(百亿欧元)11.5%30.7%21.2%8.9%21.5%30.6%15.8%35.5%9.9%9.1%17.0%-25%-5%15%35%欧洲 美国 中国254*60%60%FY20 60%60%30%10%研发生产制造运维5.2%4.5%8.5%8.2%-5%0%5%10%2016 2017 2018 2019设备类资本开支增速 研发支出增速 GDP 增速(%)255*4G 5G 5G 2021 3.6pct/10.5pct 9.4pct/10.6pct-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000()4G 时代5G 时代5.9%3.1%20.1%12.1%-10%0%10%20%30%FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21爱立信 诺基亚 高通 英特尔5G 时代256*EV Volumes Statista OEM EV Volumes 2021 675 108%8.3%4.1pct Statista 2026 1.1 6 CAGR 26.1%64%67%69%75%70%71%791262082283246750.9%1.3%2.2%2.5%4.2%8.3%01002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021BEV PHEV 电动汽车渗透率()26 105 0204060801001202020A 2026E()CAGR 26.1%257*CleanTechnica EV Volumes CleanTechnica 2021 94/59/46 Top 3 EV Volumes 2021 CR4 34.2%2020 1.2pct 2019 5.1pct 2021 2020 15.4%13.9%OEM CR40%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Tesla BYD BMW Volvo 其他55.3%36.8%39.3%33.0%34.2%0%20%40%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021258*359 2022 9 7 1.7 18 2022 9 28 2000 3.2%10 2.5pct 4Q22 0.7%9 7*60 4GHz 5.5G/6G 40GHz+Wind 2023 1 3 wind-U 4()()()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E688337.SH-U 120 4.84 6.39 9.83 13.62-0.04 0.88 1.70 2.57 136 71 47 688112.SH*102 3.04 4.20 6.01 8.33 0.81 1.39 1.94 2.72 73 52 37/688283.SH*53 1.63 2.27 3.20 4.49 0.51 0.79 1.14 1.61 67 46 33/688628.SH*38 8.42 10.17 13.02 15.59 1.09 1.39 1.89 2.39 27 20 16/688115.SH*27 2.22 2.90 3.91 5.07 0.66 0.89 1.17 1.49 30 23 18/*3.261&*2022 2023 62 Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0501001502002502022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11:yoy 2022 14 59 10 2022 2035 2023 2022 1111*63 Counterpoint Research Counterpoint 2022 Q2 6+POS 2021 Q4 2022 Q2 2*64 POS FWA wind 2023 1 3 3()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E603236.SH 202.78 112.62 153.95 205.46 272.95 3.58 6.04 9.34 14.26 34 22 300638.SZ 119.02 41.09 56.69 92.49 111.25 4.01 5.72 9.08 10.78 21 13 002881.SZ 67.29 19.69 30.42 45.06 64.90 1.18 2.03 3.39 4.70 33 20 300590.SZ 46.79 9.21 15.12 21.23 28.22 1.56 2.54 3.35 4.44 18 14*P7 2020 4+CNSS+RTK+IMUP5 2021 9 460E/550E XPILOT 3.5&+CNSS+RTK+IMU 550P/600P XPILOT 3.5 EC6 2020 7 1.5 3.9 GPS+ES6 2020 5 ES8 2020 4 ET7 2021 1 680 NAD+V2X HiPhi X 2020 9 RTK+GNSS+IMU+V2X 2021 ONE2021 5 2021 RTK+GNSS+IMU+E-HS9 2020 12+GNSS+RTK+IMU+5G-V2X V 2020 6 80Max+GNSS+RTK+IMU LX 2020 11 70 80 80DMax 80D V Plus 2021 9 80 80 90 LX Plus 2022 1 80D ADiGO 3.0 80DMax ADiGO 4.0+GNSS+RTK+IMU+5G-V2X+5G 465*66 A 300627 2224 3.8/5.2/6.7 2023 1 3 PE 42/31/24X 2023 1 3 300627.SZ+GNSS/INS 5()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E300627.SZ 158.45 19.03 25.66 36.10 48.33 2.94 3.77 5.17 6.68 42 31*67 60V 380V 800V 1000V 800V+6*68 wind 2023 1 3 7()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E688800.SH 122.21 9.02 17.96 27.30 39.14 1.14 2.80 4.26 5.95 44 29 688668.SH 64.71 5.68 8.71 12.48 16.42 1.09 1.72 2.51 3.16 38 26 002897.SZ 103.10 44.90 56.05 69.92 83.58 1.36 3.32 4.08 4.94 31 25 300351.SZ 60.47 11.49 15.44 20.65 26.94 1.22 1.59 2.26 2.76 38 27 301328.SZ*61.26 4.09 5.43 7.50 10.44 1.00 1.30 1.85 2.55 47 33/*3.369*Wind 170*712 wind 2023 1 3 wind()PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E002139.SZ*136.73 77.67 93.01 117.30 148.64 5.65 5.96 8.46 11.66 23 16/002402.SZ 137.24 59.86 74.79 93.65 118.27 5.53 6.72 9.20 12.50 20 15 300916.SZ*43.50 9.60 13.63 19.07 25.13 1.41 2.03 2.88 3.98 21 15/*72*73 CAPEX/*THANKS 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05 518026&74 S0100522090004 13917829974 S0100521100003 15600604845 S0100522090005 18317057821 S0100121090040 18721775177 S0100122060027 19921166615*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*75 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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