20221124_东方证券_新能源汽车行业2023年度投资策略：淬火成钢质地显玉汝于成新征程_37页.pdf

|2022 2022/10%14 15 2030 50%1(300568)(002108)2(300750)(603799)(002709)(603659)(688707)3(300037)(300073)(603026)/2022 11 24 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860517100003 021-63325888*6119 S0860520080004 S0860521080002 2022-11-02+2022 2022-06-17 2022-05-12 2022 1 2022-04-04 2022 2021-12-09 2023 2.5.6.6.11.17.19.19.20.22.23.23.30.33.34 3 1 2020-2022.6 2.6 3 2022 1-10.6 4 2022 1-10 GWh.7 5 2022 1-10 GWh.7 6 2022/.7 7 2022/.7 8 2022/.8 9 2022/.8 10 2022/.8 11 2022/.8 12/.9 13.9 14.10 15 2020.11 16 2021.11 17.11 18.12 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.17 23 GWh.17 24 MWh.18 25 MWh.18 26 GWh.18 27.19 28.19 29.19 30 ROE.20 31 ROE.20 32 ROE.21 33 ROE.21 34 ROE.21 4 35 ROE.21 36.21 37.22 38.23 39.23 40.24 41.24 42.25 43/.25 44/.25 45/.26 46/.26 47/.26 48/.27 49.27 50.27 51 2016-2022H1.28 52.28 53.29 54.29 55.29 56.29 57 2017-2022.30 58 2018-2022 10.30 1.10 2.13 3.14 4.14 5.15 6 IRA.15 7 IRA.16 8.24 9 2019-2022 9 top10 GWh.31 10 2019-2022 10 top10 GWh.31 5 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2022 650 80%2022 2022 2023 2023 6 2022 24%2021 354.5 352.1 159.5%157.5%13.4%2022 1-10 7 2022 1-10 528 2021 24%21 1 2020-2022 2 3 2022 1-10 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500100015002000250030003500 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0501001502002501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 7/2022 1-10/425.7GWh/224.2GWh 166%/109%49%34%-66%11 26%/51%56/10.5/17.0/61.90%30%-45%4 2022 1-10 GWh 5 2022 1-10 GWh 6 2022/7 2022/0%50%100%150%200%250%300%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 010203040506070 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 05101520253035 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002022-01-112022-02-012022-02-222022-03-152022-04-052022-04-262022-05-172022-06-072022-06-282022-07-192022-08-092022-08-302022-09-202022-10-112022-11-010.000.501.001.502.002.503.002022-01-112022-02-012022-02-222022-03-152022-04-052022-04-262022-05-172022-06-072022-06-282022-07-192022-08-092022-08-302022-09-202022-10-112022-11-01DEC DMC EC EMC PC 8 8 2022/9 2022/10 2022/11 2022/1 2 3 4 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002022-01-042022-02-042022-03-042022-04-042022-05-042022-06-042022-07-042022-08-042022-09-042022-10-042022-11-040.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002022-01-042022-02-042022-03-042022-04-042022-05-042022-06-042022-07-042022-08-042022-09-042022-10-042022-11-0410.0011.0012.0013.0014.0015.0016.0017.0018.002022-01-032022-01-242022-02-142022-03-072022-03-282022-04-182022-05-092022-05-302022-06-202022-07-112022-08-012022-08-222022-09-122022-10-032022-10-242022-11-14202530354045NCM111 5 55 6 NCM811 9 12/Wind 2018 B 2019 13 0.000000.000040.000080.000120.000160.000200.000.050.100.150.200.250.302016-02 2017-02 2018-02 2019-02 2020-02 2021-02 2022-02/10 2030 4.35 2030 25%/30%/50%2030 1.09/1.3/2.17 8 1119/1361/2326 14 1 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 30000 31850 33650 35350 36950 38450 39850 41150 42350 43450 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 2400 550 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1 784 1444 2289 3279 4414 5694 7119 8689 10404 10863 1 2.6%4.5%6.8%9.3%11.9%14.8%17.9%21.1%24.6%25%1 350 660 845 990 1135 1280 1425 1570 1715 1860 2 784 1464 2339 3419 4704 6194 7889 9789 11894 13904 2 2.6%4.6%7.0%9.7%12.7%16.1%19.8%23.8%28.1%32%2 350 680 875 1080 1285 1490 1695 1900 2105 2310 3 784 1484 2434 3868 5749 8076 10849 14069 17736 21725 3 2.6%4.7%7.2%10.9%15.6%21.0%27.2%34.2%41.9%50%3 350 700 950 1434 1881 2327 2774 3220 3667 4113 2030 050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 11 Canalys 2021 320 50%2022 15 2020 16 2021 wind Canalys wind Canalys 2020 2022 9 104.03 51%100 1-9 680 61.5%1-9 5901 3%12%17 Canalys Wind 42%44%8%6%49%36%8%7%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010002000300040005000600070008000-12 18 Canalys Wind 2020 2021 212 18%2021 65.2 4%14/15 19 20 ACEA Argonne Marklines Fit for 55 2030 55%2035 2021-2035 2025 20%2022 20%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.8%1.1%1.7%2.9%3.4%5.8%11.7%11.6%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%050100150200250BEV PHEV 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%010203040506070BEV PHEV 13 2019 21 Fit For 55 2 2022 1-9 2022-2023 18.9%50%CO2 20g/km 45,000 20g/km 6,000 45,000-60,000 20g/km 2,000 50,000 21-50g/km 1,000 45,000 20g/km 7,000 5,000 26.5%2025 12 31 BEV FCEV 10 40,000 9,000 40,000 7,500 40,000 6,750 40,000-65,000 4,500 65,000 8.6%20g/km 6,000 21-60g/km 2,500 34.0%PHEV 50%12,000-45,000 3,350 2,950 8.8%120g/km 121-159g/km 4.75%160-199g/km 9.75%200g/km 14.75%4,500-7,000 51.4%PHEV 360 25%7 20.7%50g/km BEV 3.2 1500 87.8%ACEA 0204060801001201402010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 gCO2/km 201265%100%2015 2019 1g 95 95%100%2021E E E 14 3 25 25%2026 2030 75 60 70%2033-2035 2025 25 15-25%2030 50%2023 2025 2025 50%2030 2025 50%2030 Stellantis 2030 2026 2030 2025 20 2030 100%2035 2022 2030 4 PLUS 2021 8 2022 7 7 SUV 2022 8 2022 9 PLUS ET5/ET7/EL7/ES8 2021 5 2021 9 ES8 2022 8 ET7 2022 9 2022 10 ET7 ET5 EL7 15 FREE 2022 6 FREE PHEV 2022 10 PHEV 2016-2020 Model 3 Model Y 2030 50%5 2021 3 1740 1000 150 2030 50 4 200 250 140 2021 8 2030 50%2022 7 2022 2022 8 2022 GGII IRA 2022 8 16 Inflation reduction act,IRA 7,500 20 6 IRA 1 2 2025 2024 3)8 SUV 5.5 4)/15/22.5/30 3,750/40%3,750/16 2023 2027 80%pack 50%2023 2029 100%Inflation reduction act 7 IRA 2022 Audi Q5 2022 BMW 330e 2022 BMW X5 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV 20 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV 20 2022 Chrysler Pacifica PHEV 2022 Ford Escape PHEV 2022 Ford F Series 2022 Ford Mustang MACH E 2022 Ford Transit Van 2022 GMC Hummer Pickup 20 2022 GMC Hummer SUV 20 2022 Jeep Grand Cherokee PHEV 2022 Jeep Wrangler PHEV 2022 Lincoln Aviator PHEV 2022 Lincoln Corsair Plug-in 2022 Lucid Air 2022 Nissan Leaf 2022 Rivian EDV 2022 Rivian R1S 2022 Rivian R1T 2022 Tesla Model 3 20 2022 Tesla Model S 20 2022 Tesla Model X 20 2022 Tesla Model Y 20 2022 Volvo S60 2023 Bolt EV 20 2023 Cadillac Lyriq 20 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV 17 2030 50%CAGR 25%2022 1080 680 220 130 50 2025 2700 1285 650 455 330 2030 5100 50%2021-2030 CAGR 25%22 GGII 2022 59.2GWh 2025 200.1GWh 23 GWh GGII 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 0%50%100%150%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy 18 2021 BNEF 2021 2.045GWh 73%2021 14.5 1.268GWh 49%24 MWh 25 MWh The development of battery storage systems in Germany,Jan Figgener,2022 EIA 2025 1915GWh 2025 1523GWh 2025 1915Gwh 2021-2025 43.3%26 GWh GGII 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001000120014002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%50%100%150%200%250%0200040006000800010000120002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 050010001500200025002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 19 2022 2021/27 Wind 28 29 Wind Wind 03000600090001200004080120 TTM 01000020000300004000050000 02000400060008000100001200014000 20 2014 2020 1 2 2018 2019 3 ROE 4 30 ROE 31 ROE Wind Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%21 32 ROE 33 ROE Wind Wind 34 ROE 35 ROE Wind Wind 36-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%00.511.522.5 22 2016 2017 2018 2021 2020-2021 2022/1 2 2/3 37 数据来源：恩捷 股份公 告，东 方证券 研 究所 11%14%18%8%4%21%24%23 38 数据来源：东方 证券研 究所绘制 2016 2019 72%6 39 数据来源：GGII，东方证 券研究 所+24 40 数据来源：东方 证券研 究所绘制/+2022 5 46.5 10.5 2025 50 40 3 7 5 25 40 12 18 60 8 8 6 12 1-2 2 2025 60 41 25 46.5 4.5 42 5000 1.8 3+5 2025 50 2030 100 2025 40 5 10 2025 40 5=+=+42 43/44/wind wind 15.0%15.5%16.0%16.5%17.0%17.5%18.0%18.5%19.0%0.01.02.03.04.05.02018 2019 2020 2021/1.7 1.2 0.7 1.5 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0.01.02.03.04.02018 2019 2020 2021/26 2021 2020 130%45/46/47/数据来源：东 方证券 研究所 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002015-02-252015-08-252016-02-252016-08-252017-02-252017-08-252018-02-252018-08-252019-02-252019-08-252020-02-252020-08-252021-02-252021-08-252022-02-252022-08-25(/2600mAh)(/2200mAh)0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002015-02-252015-08-252016-02-252016-08-252017-02-252017-08-252018-02-252018-08-252019-02-252019-08-252020-02-252020-08-252021-02-252021-08-252022-02-252022-08-25(4.35V)(4.4V)(4.4V)-40-30-20-10010203040010203040506070 27 48/wind 2022 49 50 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2/28 2017-2021 16.5%32.6%51 2016-2022H1 CTP CTC 250Wh/kg 52 数据来源：公司 公告，东方证 券研究 所 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3 29 53 数据来源：公司 公告，东方证 券研究 所 54 数据来源：公司 公告，东方证 券研究 所 55 56 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q3 2022Q3 30 5 2022 10 40 50%top5 85%57 2017-2022 58 2018-2022 10 2022 top10 90%LG 10%SK 81755649474001020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 31 9 2019-2022 9 top10 GWh 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-3 1 32.5 27.8%36.2 24.7%96.7 32.6%119.8 35.1%2 28.1 24.1%LG 34.3 23.4%LG 60.2 20.3%LG 48.1 14.1%3 LG 12.3 10.5%27.0 18.4%36.1 12.2%43.6 12.8%4 11.4 9.8%9.8 6.7%26.3 8.9%27.8 8.1%5 SDI 4.2 3.6%SDI 8.5 5.8%SK on 16.7 5.6%SK on 21.2 6.2%6 AESC 3.9 3.3%SKI 8.1 5.5%SDI 13.2 4.4%SDI 16.6 4.9%7 3.2 2.7%AESC 3.9 2.7%7.9 2.7%13.7 4.0%8 PEVE 2.2 1.9%3.4 2.3%6.4 2.2%9.9 2.9%9 SKI 1.9 1.6%2.4 1.6%AESC 4.2 1.4%5.9 1.7%10 1.9 1.6%PEVE 2.0 1.4%3.1 1.0%4.5 1.3%数据来源：SNE Research，东 方证券 研究所 2016 25%50%4%3%Top10 90%30 10%10 2019-2022 10 top10 GWh 2019 2020 2021 2022 M1-M10 1 32.9 52.9%31.8 50.0%80.51 52.1%106.78 47.6%2 10.8 17.3%9.5 14.9%25.06 16.2%50.80 22.7%3 3.2 5.2%LG 4.1 6.5%9.05 5.9%15.39 6.9%4 1.9 3.1%3.6 5.6%8.02 5.2%10.73 4.8%5 1.8 3.0%3.3 5.2%LG 6.25 4.0%5.50 2.5%6 1.5 2.4%2.2 3.5%3.22 2.1%5.10 2.3%7 1.2 2.0%1.2 1.9%3 1.9%5.05 1.9%8 0.7 1.1%0.95 1.5%2.92 1.9%LG 4.71 1.6%9 0.6 1.0%0.9 1.4%2.45 1.6%4.19 0.9%10 0.6 1.0%0.9 1.3%2.06 1.3%3.62 0.9%数据来源：动力 电池联 盟，东 方证券 研 究所 32 33/10%14 15 2030 50%1(300568)(002108)2(300750)(603799)(002709)(603659)(688707)3(300037)(300073)(603026)34 1%35 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告