20230214_东海证券_电子行业证券研究报告：智能化驱动车规MCU国产化替代前途远大_27页.pdf

HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 1 MCU S0630519030001 2023 2 14 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2 MCU 1 MCU MCU MCU 4.3 MCU MCU MCU MCU ASP MCU MCU 5%MCU MCU 23451ZDWzQsPnOnMtNsRrMqPrQbR8Q6MnPnNtRmPfQmMsQeRoPtO9PrQqMxNmNrOvPtOqR HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3CONTENTS1 MCU A MCU 2A MCU 34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4 IC Insights 2022 MCU 239 8.1%2022 MCU 58 7.7%MCU MCU 8 MCU MCU MCU MCU MCU MCU MCU MCU 186204 207221239248260272 2850.0%9.7%1.5%6.8%8.1%3.8%4.8%4.6%4.8%0%10%20%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E MCU YoY MCU 2232562693653904204554835130.0%14.8%5.1%35.7%6.8%7.7%8.3%6.2%6.2%0%10%20%30%40%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E MCU YoY MCU IC Insights IHS 19.1%29.6%34.3%49.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000 2010 2020 2030E$0.64$0.58$0.64$0.67$0.70$0.71$0.73$0.76$0.50$0.55$0.60$0.65$0.70$0.75$0.802019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026EMCU ASPMCU IC Insights HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5 2021 2022 705.8 688.7 96.9%93.4%25.6%12.1 ECU MCU/70 150 ECU 300 4.3 ECU MCU MCU MCU 40%MCU 701503000100200300400 ECU ECU 4.3 MCU 40%20420722105010015020025001020304050607080901002019 2020 2021&-IC Insights JW Insights,33%39%25%25%23%37%11%22%8%25%9%7%14%14%8%2013-2022 2 8335178126 121137352689-100%0%100%200%300%400%02004006008002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%()HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6 MCU MCU/SoC IGBT(CIS)(Flash)MCU Microcontroller Unit/CPU MCU 8 16 32 MCU HV-LV/ABS ACC 360HUD,PM2.5 BCM RKE/PKE MCU MCU 32 MCU 16 MCU HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7 MCU MCU 8 16 32 MCU MCU 8 MCU/32 MCU 32 CPU ARM CPU 8 MCU 8 MCU;:1 16 MCU 8 32:1-5 32 MCU RAM 高:5-10 10 MCU MCU IC Insights 32 MCU MCU MCU 32 32 MCU 2010 38.1%2015 53.7%2021 65.8%MCU 32 ASP 37%22%15%23%24%23%39%54%62%0%20%40%60%80%100%2011 2015 20204/8 16 32 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8 MCU MCU-40-155 15-20 15 AEC-Q100,IATF16949,ISO26262,3-5 10 MCU-40-85 C-20 C-70 C-40-150 C 5 2 15 5-10 3-5 15-20 40nm MCU 40nm-90nm 28nm MCU MCU MCU MCU MCU RISC-V MCU MCU MCU 22nm 28nm 40nm 55/65nm 90nm m m m MCU MCU HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9 MCU 2021 MCU CR7 85.4%Omdia MCU 85.4%MCU CSIA 2021 MCU 85%2019 94%MCU MCU 5%MCU 1.2.3.MCU 22Q4 22Q3 22Q2 MCU 30 30 30 MCU MCU 32-45 32-45 32 MCU 52+40-55 MCU 2022 Q2-Q4 MCU 2022 4 MCU 52 MCU MCU MCU Omdia KHAVEEN Investments,17.1%,16.5%,15.2%,13.6%,12.4%,6.8%,2.0%,1.8%,14.6%Omdia CSIA,HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10 MCU MCU 01.02.03.HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11CONTENTS1 MCU A MCU 2A MCU 34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12 MCU-2006 IDM 1953(52%)(21%)(15%)(12%)MCU ADAS NFC eSIM MCU 24.9%(1Q22)10 IDM 22Q4 132 19.4%56.9%21.5%28.1 48.2%2019-2022A 26,000 35.5%35.5%126.5%2019-22 NO.12021 MCU 2021 MCU 222022 16%60 Wind,Bloomberg Wind,12 31 2019 2020 2021 2022A 19-22CAGR 88.8 86.1 110.6 132.1 14.15%YoY-5.6%-3.0%28.5%19.4%52.0%49.2%54.8%56.9%3.1%0.9%17.2%21.5%2.4 0.5 18.7 27.9 125.52%EBITDA 27.2 23.0 38.5 50.5 22.99%ROA 2.9%1.7%12.5%15.2%ROE 2.4%0.6%24.2%39.9%P/E 72x n/a 38x 15x HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13 MCU-1999 IDM(45%)(13%)(29%)(13%)MCU IGBT IC NOR Flash MCU 21.9%22 1 19 IDM 22Q4 140 28.6%43.1%15.3%21.5 86.4%2019-2022A 12 31 复合年增率 2019 2020 2021 2022A 19-22 CAGR 88.0 100.6 128.3 140.0 16.72%YoY 5.7%6.7%29.1%28.6%37.3%32.4%38.5%43.1%10.8%4.3%10.6%15.3%9.5 4.3 13.6 21.5 31.02%EBITDA 22.5 20.7 33.9 43.1 24.26%ROA 9.5%3.2%6.5%11.5%ROE 11.5%3.9%10.8%16.5%P/E 29x 98x 46x 17x 31,250 2022 1,750 56,200 18.7%2018-2022 CAGR NO.12021 2021 IGBT 2021 IC 182022 13%37%2022 Wind,Wind,HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14 MCU-2005 2016(603986.SH)Fabless NOR Flash(58.5%)MCU(36.5%)(4.5%),0.5%Arm MCU 2019 RISC-V GD32V 32 MCU 22Q3 67.7 6.9%48.5%30.9%20.9 26.9%2019-2022E 200 119.1%22H1 MCU 19.2%22H1 NOR Flash NO.12021NOR Flash 2021 2021 5.3922H1 11.3%93.3%22H1 12 31 万得一致 2019 2020 2021 2022E 19-22E CAGR 32.0 45.0 85.1 98.7 45.50%YoY 42.6%40.4%89.2%15.9%0.0%37.4%46.5%45.2%18.9%19.6%27.5%27.8%6.1 8.8 23.4 27.4 65.50%EBITDA 7.4 10.2 27.9 30.0 59.47%ROA 14.1%10.1%17.5%15.7%ROE 17.0%11.1%19.3%17.7%P/E 135x 112x 63x 25x Wind,Wind,Bloomberg,HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15 MCU-2002 2010(603986.SZ)2017 MCU(37.2%)(29.5%)(15.0%)(11.5%)(6.8%)MCU IVI SoC AMP TPMS 22Q3 18.6 21.8%56.6%-3.3%2019-2022E 20 2021MCU 20 IVI SoC AC8015 20 3 22Q3MCU 48%22Q3 48%,75%+22Q3MCU Wind,Wind,12 31 万得一致 2019 2020 2021 2022E 19-22E CAGR 23.1 21.5 30.6 39.7 19.74%YoY 8.3%-7.0%42.5%29.6%68.7%65.5%59.9%60.3%13.3%-16.6%4.1%7.1%3.1-3.6 1.3 2.8-2.89%EBITDA 2.1 1.2 4.1 4.1 25.42%ROA 2.8%-3.8%0.1%1.6%ROE 4.5%-4.0%1.2%2.1%P/E 111x 232x n/a 250 x HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16 MCU-2001 2021(688262.SH)CPU IP Fabless 2009 CPU C2002,(40.0%),(39.6%)IP(19.3%)22Q3 3.2 21.8%52.9%30.0%1.0 164.0%2019-2022E(MCU)40+CPU 49.2%22H1 21 CPU IP 400 2022 172.5%22H1 100%2017-2021 IP 100%Wind,Wind,12 31 万得一致 2019 2020 2021 2022E 19-22E CAGR 2.3 2.6 4.1 8.4 53.65%YoY 18.9%12.1%57.0%106.2%58.3%66.2%52.9%52.4%13.4%17.6%17.2%20.6%0.3 0.5 0.7 1.7 77.13%EBITDA 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 55.22%ROA 7.0%8.9%4.1%4.3%ROE 7.6%10.2%4.3%5.8%P/E n/a n/a n/a 58x HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17 MCU-1994 2012(300327.SZ)Fabless(78.1%)(21.9%)2022 10 MCU 2023 BMS 22Q3 18.6 14.9%46.4%24.3%3.1 15.9%2019-2022E 9 31.5%22H1 31%31%10 NO.42021 MCU 2021 MCU 82%67.1%22H1 Wind,Wind,iFind,Bloomberg,12 31 万得一致 2019 2020 2021 2022E 19-22E CAGR 8.3 10.1 14.9 19.0 31.57%YoY 10.1%21.4%47.6%27.2%42.3%40.5%47.4%45.9%21.7%19.8%24.8%24.2%1.8 2.0 3.7 4.6 36.42%EBITDA 1.8 2.2 4.1 5.3 44.33%ROA 16.8%16.9%25.7%21.3%ROE 20.7%20.7%31.2%27.7%P/E 37x 43x 65x 26x HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18CONTENTS1 MCU A MCU 2A MCU 34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19A MCU-,/GD32VF103 RISC-V 32 AEC-Q100 2023 1 IAR Systems IAR Embedded Workbench for Arm 9.32.1 GD32 22 12 Cortex-M33 GD32A503 MCU 2022 9 GD32A503 ADAS HVAC DCDC T-BOX EDR GD32A7 ACE-Q100 ISO26262 ASIL-D ADAS GD32L233 BMS Arm Cortex-M23 32 AEC-Q100GD32F470 Arm Cortex-M4 32 AEC-Q100GD32F407 Arm Cortex-M4 32 AEC-Q100GD32F330 Arm Cortex-M4 32 AEC-Q100GD32F30XAC/DC/Arm Cortex-M4 32 AEC-Q100GD32F130 Arm Cortex-M3 32 AEC-Q100GD32E50X Arm Cortex-M23 32 AEC-Q100GD32E230 BMS Arm Cortex-M23 32 AEC-Q100GD32E113 BMS Arm Cortex-M4 32 AEC-Q100GD32A503 ADAS Arm Cortex-M33 32()AC781x ARM Cortex-M3 32 AEC-Q100 2022 12 SoC AC8015 SUV 12 IAR System MCU 12 MCU AC7802x 2022 3 MCU AC7840 x AC7801x ARM Cortex-M0+32 AEC-Q100AC8015 SoC ARMCortex-A53 32 AEC-Q100AC5111 TPMS 8051 8 ISO 26262 ASIL-B,AEC-Q100AC7802X ARM Cortex-M0+32 AEC-Q100AC7840X ARM Cortex-M4F 32 ASIL-B AEC-Q100AC8257 SoC ARMCortex-A53 64 CCM3310S-T CS0 32 AEC-Q100 2022 CCFC2012BC,CCFC2007PT,CCFC2016BC MCU CCFC2012BC PowerPC C*Core CPU NXP MPC5604BC MPC5607B ST SPC560B50,SPC560B64 9 110 CCM3310S-T/CCM3310S-H NXP（MPC5777 CCFC3007PT CCM3320S CCFC2002BC/IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2003PT IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2006PT IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2007PT IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2012BC/IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2013PT IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC2016BC/BMS IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100CCFC3007PT IBM PowerPC 32 AEC-Q100 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20A MCU-A MCU 603986.SH 002405.SZ 688262.SH 市值(2023/2/14)773 亿 309 亿 136 亿PE(TTM)50 x 22x 310 x 262x n/a 81x 2021 22Q3 2021 22Q3 2021 22Q3 85.1 亿 67.7 亿 30.6 亿 20.8 亿 4.1 亿 3.2 亿YoY%89.2%6.9%42.5%11.5%57.0%21.8%46.5%48.5%59.9%56.5%52.9%52.9%27.5%30.9%4.1%-4.4%17.2%30.0%23.4 亿 20.9 亿 1.3 亿-0.9 亿 0.7 亿 1.0 亿YoY%165.4%26.9%135.2%-48.0%53.5%164.0%ROA 17.5%12.1%0.1%-1.5%4.1%3.1%ROE 19.3%14.6%1.2%-0.5%4.3%3.4%13%9%14%14%6%7%55 111 359 422 359 422 10 10 166 196 166 196 87 140 245 286 245 286 41 39 52 60 52 60 6.9 10.1 18.6 14.3 18.6 14.3 5.9 7.9 17.4 12.4 17.4 12.4()8.4 7.3 13.3 9.9 0.9 0.9%11%11%47%48%22%28%(FY21)854 3014 158%(FY21)64%69%58%iFind,HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21 MCU MCU MCU 2026 500 MCU MCU MCU MCU 40nm-90nm,/Wind,2023 2 14 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22CONTENTS1 MCU A MCU 2A MCU 3 4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23 IP MCU HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25 1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333619 8610 59707105 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26P R A G M A T I C I N N O V A T I V E D I S C I P L I N E D C O L L A B O R A T I V E 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告