20221128_开源证券_机械行业2023年度投资策略：自主可控制造升级_60页.pdf

2023 S0790522060001 S0790522080004 2022 11 27 1 2008 2 1 9 2000 11 11 3 2023 1 2 3 a.b.c.d.e.4 4 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 1.1 PMI 50%IMF 2022 2023 3.2%2.8pcts 2.7%-4-3-2-1012345%2022 20230.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002021-12021-22021-32021-42021-52021-62021-72021-82021-92021-102021-112021-122022-12022-22022-32022-42022-52022-62022-72022-82022-92022-10:(ISM):PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI:PMI 2 PMI 1 GDP Wind IMF 1.2 82%65%6%50%10%1%13%1.7%5%35%10%PLC PLC 20%PLC 10%47%RV 30%8.3%19.7%35%15%85%MIR A 2022 2022 3 1.4 2021 4.86 30%2021 11.6%/3C 0.3%2020 6 GDP 7 2020 121(0.4)(0.2)0.00.20.40.6%/3C-20%0%20%40%(%):GDP:29.8%15.3%5.9%4.7%2.8%2.7%1.7%2.9%4 5 2021 Trademap Wind Wind Wind IFR 932605390371289255 248126 12102004006008001,0001.4 2011 2021 2025 10%2035 2021 2012 7.4 3.8 2021 12.8 6.3 8 2021/2011 2011 2013 2015 2025 2016 2021 1 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 2.1 9 11 10 CNC 32%12%8%6%5%37%13 2020 32%2.1 Statista Gardner Intelligence 2021 800 2020 668 850 2020 680 2020 32%2021 30%MIR 2021 678.8 28.8%21.1 29.3%2022 H1 324.8 16.2%9.9 18.5%30%9%13%13%8%27%12 2021 30%14 15 0500100015002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2.2 2 2019 2021 51.23 3 1 Peter Wolter 2 3 2019 359.04 288.32 259.76 221.68 211.48 131.92 127.84 114.24 100.64 59.16 2021 51.23 26.78 24.28 12.41 10.82 8.39 8.33 7.89 5.01 16 3 Wind 85%68%6%0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019%17 2.2 MTBF 600 2000 20%WALDRICHCOBURG 10 95%10 85%95%100%85%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10 18 44.85%11.48%36.21%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 19 2022 2.2 20 2012 26%2020 43%+3D(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00(%),%3C,%,%22 2022 2 2.3 Wind 2000-2004 2010 2012 2019 10 2020 2021 2022 2 2022 Q1 H1 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%01002003004005002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0510152025302000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 21 Gardner Intelligence 2.3 3 010000200003000040000500006000070000 2020 2021 2022H1 23 28%22%12%10%10%7%6%5%MIR 2.3+4 2022 9 6 ETF ETF 9 16 2022 9 18 ETF 2022 8 2022.7.26 2021 2022.8 2022.9.6 2022.9.18 ETF 50 2022.10.16,10%,10%,30%,25%,15%,20%,5%,2%,3%80%2.4 3C 24 25 60%FANUC KesslerFISCHER MCT IBAG ABL THK Rexroth 1/3-1/2 25%840D 95.85%1/31/2 5 2.434%18%13%13%8%14%MIR SIEMENS HEIDENHAIN FANUC 2.4.1 6 SIEMENS SIN MERIK 840D sl 802DslHEIDENHAIN TNC 640WALTER HMC1500/200 FANUC 0i-F FANUC ANCA DMG MORI CELOS 9 8 25iG 986 980MDi CASNUC 2000G CASNUC 3000H GNC60 GNC61 GNC62 JD50 7 26 65%2020 2020 PC-base 0 1 8 2.4.1 2.4.2 5-10 2/1/9 21%12%9%3%2%53%27 28 A 2022 A 2022 2026 74.9 1 2 3 2.4.2 800 10 10 60%480 29 Wind 2.4.3 1 P2 P3 P5 2 3 1 2 50%3 90%31 30 2022 2022 1 2 1 2 10-30%4.8%-14.4%80%80%1%NSK 80%90%THK THK NSK 3C 50%NSK INNA NSK 10 2.52.5 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 Wind 2050 3 3 2022 2 8 2022 8(IEA)2050 3 5 6-8 2011 2015 2022 5 10 5 6 8 2022 Q3 53 23 8 29 5-8 7000 55,806120,000-1.001.003.005.007.009.00020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000:%32 020406080100 549096623.1 33 2030 90-96 Wind 1/20 2021 12 20 93.4%750 566 35 3.1 34 36 39 177 177 3.2 177 2022 MOX 2%-4%235 238 18 1/3 M310 157 AFA3G 18 1/3 177 177 1 30 37 38 40 FCC4 V1 2022 2030 26.5 3.2 2022 54 2025 2030 62 96 157 177 18 1/3 150 14.1 2025 16.5 2023 26.5 2022 2025E 2030E 54 62 96 157 160 166 1.5 1.5 1.5 1/3 1/3 1/3 1884 2199 3536 2 2 2 942 1099 1768 150 150 150 14.1 16.5 26.514.1316.4926.520510152025300204060801001202022 2025E 2030E 41 2030 26.5 11 2030 26.5 3.3.1 42 43 3.3.1 44 2021-2025 50/200/2030 800/45 2025 5591 1119 1172 1470 707 752 1047 2230 2932 5591 01000200030004000500060002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E2025E 2.25 0.84 0.70 1.59 4.32 0.52 2.55 14.97 8.15 10.39 10.81-200%0%200%400%600%051015202011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:YoY%46 2020 Wind 3.3.2 Wind -5-8 NAC-STC 3,000 Hi-star 60 26 12-48 NAC-STC 3.3.2 47 2016 Wind 2015 2022 2025 99.6 3.3.3 2019()26 12 100 kw 21t 2021A/2022E/2025E 707/752/1047 2230/2932/5591 20t 3000 2021/2022/2025 44.1/55.3/99.6 2021 2022E 2025E 707 752 1047 2230 2932 5591 2937 3684 6638 20 20 20 147 184 332 3000 3000 3000 44.1 55.3 99.60.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.00200400600800100012002021 2022E 2025E 49 2025 99.6 12 2025 99.6 Wind 2015 2022 3.3.3 1500/800 200+800 39.84%20%149 1875 39.84%20%149.4 50 14929.9119.50.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0 200 800 13 149 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 4.12022Q3 MIR 20 2021 3 2022 Q3 OEM 6%4.2pcts 51 2022Q3 OEM 6%52 2022Q3 45.5%42%-23%7%12%-15%14%23%9%38%7%14%12%5%1%39%8%35%8%6%18%11%-8%23%10%5%2%2%1%-3%-3%-5%-5%-6%-6%-6%-7%-8%-8%-10%-10%-12%-14%-18%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%2022Q3 2021Q3-4.0%14.9%12.1%16.2%53.4%28.1%21.2%11.5%4.5%-10.2%-6.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%050100150200250300350400OEM%MIR 4.1 Wind 53 2022Q3 2022Q3 9.9%/10.0%/10.1%,2022 10 111.1%17.0pcts 9 28 2000(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00(%),%3C,%,%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-07 54 2022 9-10 90%Wind 4.1 9+15.1%2022 4 2022Q3 1.16%9/-50%0%50%100%2017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.00(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00%0100200300400500010000200003000040000500002021/1/312021/2/282021/3/312021/4/302021/5/312021/6/302021/7/312021/8/312021/9/302 0 2 1/1 0 2 0 2 1/1 1 2 0 2 1/1 2 2022/1/312022/2/282022/3/312022/4/302022/5/312022/6/302022/7/312022/8/31%Wind JMTBA Wind 55 2022Q3 56 2022 9+15.1%57 58 9/4.2 PLC PLC 10%MIR PLC 50%+2021 PLC 79.6 78.9 189 2022Q3 PLC 20.2%PLC 10%PLC 1%PLC PLC PLC PLC PLC,52.1%,15.1%,10.3%,7.3%,4.4%,3.8%,1.5%,5.5%60 2022Q3 PLC 10%59 2022Q3 20.2%+1.5pcts PLC PLC 70%PLC OEM PLC 14 PLC PLC MIR 4.3 10%2021 250 2022Q3 35%70%PLC 10%PLC 10%61 2022Q3 35%+9pcts OEM OEM 15 MIR 4.4 MIR IFR RV 47%RV 30%RV 30%RV 108 52 47%216 104 30%223 109 35%80 20 20%20%-70%15%-40%20%-50%62 4.5 SCARA 6 6 2021 73%64 2022Q3+42%MIR 5150338042502050192097012014559355050295026102310950181038017209970100020003000400050006000 ABB 2022Q1 2022Q216.67%18.90%19.77%25.55%16.15%17.25%16.79%15.46%11.62%19.68%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q220kg(%)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%050010001500200025003000%65 2022Q2 6 MIR MIR 63 2022Q2 8pct4.6 28=+16*2*1=+12+*1+*1 66+16 2027 500 1000 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E()0.25 5 20 40 100 150 6 96 384 704 1600 2400 1.6 23.7 90.1 165.2 356.7 508.3 28 28 28 28 28 28 7 140 560 1120 2800 4200 2500 2500 2500 2500 2000 2000 3 52.5 180 332 680 1005 68 67 AI Day AI Day AI Day4.6 Wind RV 2021 1 2021 11%2022H1 26%PLC 2021 48%2021 86.4%2021 29.6%2021 98.87%2021 22.6%2021 59.4%69 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 5.1 1030 SEMI 2021 1030 70 5.2 Wind 2022 8 26 75 12/12 2022 50 66 020040060080010001200 71 72 2021 0.9 8.5%8.5%7.2%7.4%7.6%6.9%7.0%7.1%7.1%7.5%7.8%7.6%8.5%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 IC Insights 5.32021 10.8%2021 10.8%/IDM 73/IDM 74 2021 10.8%00.10.20.30.40.50.62019 2020 2021 2022 5.4 0.9%0.5%0.6%Ferrotec 17 Ferrortec Ferrotec Hana Advanced Energy MKS Brooks Automation Rorze ASML/Edwards Ebara MKS Compart System MKS Horiba Compart System Zeiss Cymer ASML 75 IDM/5.4半导体 设备精密零 部件机械类（包 括工艺 及结 构 零部件）占半导 体设 备市场 比例12%占设备 成本 比例20%-40%国 产 化程 度 最高机电 一 体类（包 括 非气 柜 模组 的 模组 类产 品）占半 导 体设 备市 场 比例8%占设备 成本 比例10%-25%整 体 国产 化 率不 高，功 能复 杂 的高 端 产品 未 国产 化气体/液体/真空系 统类 占半导 体设 备市场 比例9%占设备 成本 比例10%-30%整 体 国产 化 处于 中 等水 平，大 部分 品 类高 端 产品 未国 产 化电气类（如 射频电 源等）占半导 体设 备市场 比例6%占设备 成本 比例10%-20%国 产 化率 低，高 端 产品 尚未 国 产化仪器仪 表类（如气 体流 量 计等）占半导 体设 备市场 比例1%占设备 成本 比例1%-3%国 产 化率 低，高 端 产品 尚未 国 产化光学类（光 学元件、光 栅 等）占半导 体设 备市场 比例8%占设备 成本 比例55%国 产 化率 低 76 124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 6.2023 1 2 3 4 18 Wind 2022 11 23 Wind EPS PE2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E300092.SZ 35 15.1 0.52 0.77 1.10 29 20 14002903.SZ 34 22.5 0.52 1.26 2.51 47 19 10603416.SH 65 46.2 1.84 2.51 3.36 22 16 12688697.SH 80 24.4 0.81 1.05 1.30 30 23 19601882.SH 153 29.4 0.97 1.21 1.52 30 24 19603203.SH 71 28.3 1.41 1.79-20 16-300607.SZ 65 15.3 0.45 0.61 0.72 34 25 21002698.SZ 164 16.0 0.55 0.74-29 22-300990.SZ 104 111.0 1.62 2.74 4.24 63 37 24300415.SZ 101 21.6 1.16 1.48 1.77 19 15 12124目 录CONTENTS 5 6 3 7 7.1788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告