20240425_华泰证券_公用环保行业：装机与成本双拐点气电价值重估_26页.pdf

1()()()600011 CH 10.71 902 HK 5.74 600027 CH 7.73 1071 HK 5.00 600886 CH 17.36 135 HK 8.15 601139 CH 8.80 579 HK 2.01-(20)(11)(1)918Apr-23 Aug-23 Dec-23 Apr-24(%)300 2.3.11.14.21.YWAZwPqNoNnMtNmPnQpQrQaQdNaQnPqQtRsOiNrRqMjMpNqO8OqQvMwMmRoNxNtOrR 3 1 0 2022/9%/5%-2 2011-2022 CAGR13%3 2011-2022-0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02004006008001,0001,2001,400201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(GW)yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%020,00040,00060,00080,000201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022()yoy 4 3600-4 3600 800 700 500 455 413 300 283 213 200 160 134.6 80 0.5 0 0 0 7838.6 7391.5-MCNYWm3OEN9wnllUk6iQTMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZaXzS3MuQZHbv0u0IHX/Ko 5 5 2022-2025 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022-2025-1.3-1.3-5.0-5.0 200.0-15.0 15.0 15.0-15.0 160.0-35.0-35.0-40.0-40.0-60.0-60.0-100.0 98.0-198.0-62.8 220.2-283.0 800.0 12.2 4.0 270.0-286.2 138.0 191.0-329.0 283.0-98.0 74.5 172.6 345.1 500.0 50.0 177.2 190.9-418.1-6.0 357.6 305.0 668.6 700.0-143.0 315.0 500.0 958.0 455.0 394.0 951.0 1,093.7 486.0 2,924.7 3,600.0 610.5 1,868.0 2,624.9 1,478.6 6,581.9 6,698.0 A2023-2025 127%-6 2023-2025 2023 2024 2025 2023-2025 2022 0 0 150 150 4,702 3%160 0 0 160 2,875 6%30 100 0 130 4,752 3%0 491 0 491 3,690 13%0 900 0 900 0 0 920 0 920-0 940 0 940-980 0 0 980 0 800 240 0 1,040-0 1,490 0 1,490 0 735.5 1,870 0 2,605.5 8,589.05 30%920 800 1,400 3,120 4,240 74%892 2,350 1,076 4,318 6,100 71%3,150 2,799 0 5,949 12,738 47%A 2,240 2,840 3,020 8,100 6,392 127%6 2019-2023-7 2019-2023 8 2019-2023 1=/2 2023/1=/2-9 2019-2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1,220 1,400 2,058 1,903 1,445 2,004 1,951 2,455 2,841 2,309 1,662 1,341 2,006 1,904 1,741 859 1,306 2,220 1,943 1,995 375 324 1,241 2,267 2,076 710 1,216 1,686 1,502 1,322 1,194 1,800 1,236 1,180 749 2,273 1,764 2,048 2,164 1,975 1,491 1,729 2,758 1,445 1,113 955 1,044 1,328 1,630 1,654 796 832 834 1,476 1,450 1210 1313 1891 1846 1581 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 4000 2000-10 2019-2023/11 2019-2022/1 2 7 3 4 2023 Wind-05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8 12 100 9F 0.655/9E 0.68/6F 0.68/LNG 0.616 28/40 28/20 32/10 42/0.436/+2023 4-8 0.102/0.538/40 0.449/+2023 4-8 40 0.102/0.551/20 0.484/+2023 4-8 20 0.110/0.594/10 0.469/+2023 4-8 10 0.107/0.576/28/+-0.3949/-0.45/-6 25 9 10 12 20 3 5 0.65/0.45/-1800 1800 0.65/1800 1.53/=-1.53/1-1+1+5%9F 302.4/9E 302.4/6F 571.2/6B 394.8/9F()4.9()9E()4.5()6F()4.9()6B()4.5()-0.65 9H-9 13 9F-2023-2024 0.7949/2400 0.332/6F-2023-2024 0.9433/2400 0.332/6B-2023-2024 0.9433/2400 0.332/-2018 22-0.7344/-0.6404/2023 1 1 3 15 16:00 24:00 0.7404-0.4143/)50%20%50%-2022 6 1 2023 3 31 0.50/0.6207/0.10/2022 6 1 2023 3 31 0.50/0.0.4207/0.10/-=-1.62/1-/1+/1+-0.3964/1.62/=-1.62/1-/1+/1+2 39 2 39 35/8 0.41/8-0.3879/0.6/-0.3879/-0.6262/10 14 36.5/37.01/2500 0.6991 2500-5000 0.6187 5000 0.6749/9E 300 0.15 300-500 0.1 500-1.0284/-0.6658/2020-2020-0.6662 0.6118 5.44 1 2020 0.3555-22 11 70%-15 16 2021-2022 A 17 2021-2022 A/A/A 0.233 0.2350.0420.0470.059 0.0420.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.402021 2022(/0.040.020.110.160.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.182021 2022(/A 8.5%4.6%24.8%32.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2021 2022 A 12-18 2018-2022/2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.13-0.81-3.45-0.58-0.09 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.12-0.20 1.912.42-19 E 180MW F 450MW H 650MW/KWh 0.190 0.183 0.170%5 5 5/3.02 3.02 3.02/KWh 0.6025 0.5803 0.5391 20 1000MW 600MW 600MW 300MW 600MW 300MW g/KWh 285 293 300 308 314 323 Q5500/884 884 884 884 884 884/KWh 0.3208 0.3298 0.3377 0.3467 0.3534 0.3635 21 1000 Q5500/1000MW 600MW 600MW 300MW 600MW 300MW E 180MW 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 2.10 2.16 F 450MW 1.98 2.04 2.09 2.14 2.18 2.25 H 650MW 2.13 2.19 2.25 2.31 2.35 2.42 13 22 2010 2.985.84 0123456702004006008001,0001,2001,4002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024(/,/)(/)Q5500/2010 2.985.84 1.912.42 14 LNG-23 2023+7.6%2024 1-2+14.8%=+-2023-25-24 25 2024-25+20%/+9%15.6(1.8)(0.9)12.6 12.6 11.1 7.8 12.7 17.7 20.4 20.5 20.2 13.8 12.9 22.8 21.9 10.5 12.9 10.6 2.8 12.5 14.7 18.3 7.4 6.8 15.1(1.7)7.6 14.8(5)051015202505001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50019961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232M24(%)()17%16%15%15%18%20%18%17%18%16%18%17%21%23%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02004006008001,0001,2002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E()YOY%15 LNG-26 LNG 27 2023+5.6%28/2022/(150)(100)(50)0501001502002503003502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E()02468101205001,0001,5002,0002,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)()05001,0001,5002,0002,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()16 24-25 70/80 LNG 128/111-29 2023+8.2%LNG+13.5%42%2022-30 2024 1/2/3 LNG-22%/-22%/-10%31 2024 1/2/3-13%/-10%/-10%LNG LNG 0510152025303540455002004006008001,0001,2002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%)()LNG-50%0%50%100%150%200%012345601/2004/2007/2010/2001/2104/2107/2110/2101/2204/2207/2210/2201/2304/2307/2310/2301/24(/)LNG-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.501/2004/2007/2010/2001/2104/2107/2110/2101/2204/2207/2210/2201/2304/2307/2310/2301/24(/)17 32 JKM 22 10 33 TTF 23 1 Bloomberg Bloomberg-34 NYMEX 23 3 35 23 2-10 11 Bloomberg Bloomberg+(200)(100)0100200300400500600010203040506005/2007/2009/2011/2001/2103/2105/2107/2109/2111/2101/2203/2205/2207/2209/2211/2201/2303/2305/2307/2309/2311/2301/2403/24(%)(/)JKM MA6 MA9(200)(100)010020030040050060070005010015020025005/2007/2009/2011/2001/2103/2105/2107/2109/2111/2101/2203/2205/2207/2209/2211/2201/2303/2305/2307/2309/2311/2301/2403/24(%)(/)TTF MA6 MA9(100)(50)050100150024681001/1905/1909/1901/2005/2009/2001/2105/2109/2101/2205/2209/2201/2305/2309/2301/24(%)(/MMBTu)NYMEX 3 NYMEX 6-6M-9M(60)(40)(20)02040608010012002040608010012001/1905/1909/1901/2005/2009/2001/2105/2109/2101/2205/2209/2201/2305/2309/2301/24(%)(/)6 9-6M-9M 18 36 LNG 37 2024 38 2024-2025 2024 4-2025 3 2023 4-2025 3 65%55%18.5%15%18.5%20%32%42%70%80%80%3%3%LNG JKM 100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5(/)2024 2023 19 39 2024-2025 30%40%60%60%-10%-JKM 40 2024 JKM/MMBTu/8.0510.05 2.99 3.00 10.05 3.14 3.15 8.05 2.84 2.85 3-5-41-42-2024 20 43 2024 1 1 0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50 LNG LNG-LNG LNG-(/)2024 2023 21 44()EPS()PE()()()()2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 600011 CH 9.31 10.71 146,149-0.47 0.54 0.78 0.86-19.81 17.24 11.94 10.83 902 HK 4.94 5.74 77,549-0.51 0.53 0.77 0.85-8.78 8.45 5.82 5.27 600027 CH 6.72 7.73 68,729 0.01 0.44 0.61 0.73 672.00 15.27 11.02 9.21 1071 HK 4.23 5.00 43,263 0.00 0.45 0.60 0.72 NA 8.52 6.39 5.33 600886 CH 15.60 17.36 116,285 0.55 0.96 1.15 1.27 28.36 16.25 13.57 12.28 135 HK 7.37 8.15 63,815 0.73 0.71 0.75 0.78 9.16 9.41 8.91 8.57 601139 CH 7.62 8.80 21,921 0.42 0.50 0.62 0.69 18.14 15.24 12.29 11.04 579 HK 1.81 2.01 14,923 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.49 4.69 4.44 4.10 3.35 45(600011 CH)57%2023/2543.97/84.46+3.11%/+214.33%4Q23/630.75/-41.18,+0.48%/-19.54%2023 DPS 0.2/57%50%24-26 122/136/159 165/179/-24 81.92 597.16 24E PE21.5x PB1.2x Wind 24E PE/PB 12.8x/1.06x 1682 10.71 10/2024 03 20(600011 CH,):57%(902 HK)57%2023/2543.97/83.57+3.11%/+204.13%2023 DPS 0.2/57%50%24-26 121/134/157 161/174/-2024 BPS 4.34 1.2x 2024E PB 0.74x 2 5.74 5.06/2024 03 20(902 HK,):57%(600027 CH)(1071 HK)2023 43.65%2023/1171.8/45.2+9.45%/+3789%2022 41.5-49.8 2023 DPS0.15 15.3 10.1 43.65%A 2024-2026 62/75/91 71/83/-H 61/74/90 70/81/-A H/15/1.25/2x 10/0.80/2x 24E PE/PB/PB A/H 7.73/5.00 6.69/3.77 2024 03 28(1071 HK,;600027 CH,):(600886 CH)2024-2025 4*66 23-25 71.2/85.7/94.5 71.0/75.6/80.1 24E/53.57/73.27/24E PB/PE Wind 1.0/15.9x/0.9/17x 23E PB/PE 1294 17.36 15.40/2023 12 20(600886 CH,):22(135 HK)2023-2.2%2023 1,774+3.2%56.8+8.7%61.4-2.2%66.0 2024-26 64.6/67.3/71.1 71.4/77.8/-8.15 8.11 9x 2024PE 10 x 2024 PE/0.92 PE 7 PE 2023 5pp 40%4.4%2025 45%2024 03 26(135 HK,):(601139 CH)2023+18%2023 309+3%14.4+18%13.6+26%4Q23 77+3%3.4-7%2024-2026 EPS 0.62/0.69/0.80 0.57/0.65/-24/16.6/1.2/2024 PE 10/18x Wind 2024 14x PE CAGR 17x PE CAGR 253 8.8 7.62/2024 13/18xPE 2024 03 30(601139 CH,):(579 HK)2023+8%“”3 26 2023 2023 204.46+2%30.58+8%2023 1/0.50/0.29MW 2 5.33GW 3pp 38%9.4%2024 2024-2026 33/41/49 42/50/-BPS 3.96/4.25/4.58 2.01 2024 0.46xPB 2.02 2023 0.5xPB Wind 0.20 x 24-25 CAGR 15%17%2024 03 27(579 HK,):9.4%-23 46 600011 CH 902 HK 600027 CH 1071 HK 600886 CH 135 HK 601139 CH 579 HK 600021 CH 2380 HK 600023 CH 000543 CH 600098 CH 836 HK 600116 CH 600795 CH 600886 CH 600027 CH 000027 CH 601991 CH A 000539 CH 601857 CH 600028 CH 600938 CH 24 25-26-/-2024