20240219_东方证券_银行行业深度报告：存款缺口视角下的银行间流动性回顾与展望_22页.pdf

|2023 N 8-10 2023 8 8-12 10 10 Q4 2023 7-10 8 23Q3-Q4 3.6 1 2020 2024 24H1 24Q1 PSL 24H2 1 2024 1 NCD NCD 2024 2023 NCD 2024 1(601288)(601398)(601328)2(600919)(002966)(600926)(601838)3(601009)(601077)(601169)2.ZXFUxOnQsRnMrPtQrMtMpO8ObP6MtRrRsQqMjMoOnPiNoMrR6MoPtPuOrQzRvPtRsP 3.1.2.4 2023 1 N 2023 2022 N 23Q1 3 23Q2 8-10 10 DR007 7 35BP 11-12 1 DR007%wind 2+wind 2 8-10 1 1.01.52.02.53.03.54.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 DR OMO MLF 8 23Q2 23Q3 10 11-12 1 2023 8-12 10 10 50%3 wind-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000 6 2 23H1 8 3/4 4 23H1 5 23H1 wind wind Q1 Q1 30%-40%23Q1 46%60%Q1 6 wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7 Q1 7 wind 42 A 8 vs.wind 2023 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%180.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 20225.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%12.5%13.0%13.5%14.0%2017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 8 9 wind 23H1 65.5%10pct 10 23H1 11 23H1 36 A 12 12 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%77.0%78.0%79.0%80.0%81.0%82.0%2021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12 ABS 0%20%40%60%80%100%20132014201520162017201819H1201920H1202021H1202122H1202223H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%20132014201520162017201819H1201920H1202021H1202122H1202223H1 9 12 wind 2018-2023 4 7 9 10 12 13 wind-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 14 wind 15 wind Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q4 20.00%21.00%22.00%23.00%24.00%25.00%75.00%76.00%77.00%78.00%79.00%80.00%2016Q12016H12016Q32016A2017Q12017H12017Q32017A2018Q12018H12018Q32018A2019Q12019H12019Q32019A2020Q12020H12020Q32020A2021Q12021H12021Q32021A2022Q12022H12022Q32022A2023Q12023H12023Q3/(15,000.0)(10,000.0)(5,000.0)0.05,000.010,000.015,000.020,000.025,000.030,000.035,000.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 16 wind 17 wind 18 wind-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%350.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 2022-200.0%-150.0%-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2019202020212022-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 2022 12 2023 21Q4 2023 1 2 3 19 2024.1 wind 2023 7-10 8 20 vs.wind-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2018-062018-082018-102018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12 5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09 13 23Q3-Q4 23Q3-Q4 3.6 1 2020 21 Q3 Q4 wind 2024 1 2023 OMO MLF 12 2024 1 2 PSL 2023 12 2024 1 24 2 5 0.5pct 2-3 MLF 23Q3 1.71%1.8%MLF 2.5%MLF MLF 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0.02,000.04,000.06,000.08,000.010,000.012,000.014,000.016,000.018,000.020,000.019Q3 19Q4 20Q3 20Q4 21Q3 21Q4 22Q3 22Q4 23Q3 23Q4 14 22 23H1%wind 2023 12 2 1 25 LPR 2 1 2024 2023 23Q3 23Q4 2024 24Q1 1 200 Q1 24Q1 5000 5000 PSL 2023 12 3500 2024 1 1500 PSL 1 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 15 23 wind 2 24H2 24Q1 40%24Q2 25%24H2 35%2024 2023 23 24H2 8.1 1 2024 2023 23Q4 2023 10 2024 2024 1 1 2024 2024 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 20231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 1 1998 2007 2020 2023 1998.8 2007.8 2007.12 2020.6 2020.7 2023.11 2023.12 1.35 2000 wind 1 2023 2023 NCD 2013-2016 2017-2019 5000 1 NCD MPA NCD 1 2019 2019-2023 NCD 21 9700 2021 24 10 wind 0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.0035,000.000.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.00300,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 17 NCD 1 NCD 2023 NCD 63%NCD 2023 1 NCD NSFR NCD 2023 NCD 25 2023 wind NCD 2019-2023 3 12 2 4 7 12 26 2019-2023 27 2019-2023 wind wind 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-50%0%50%100%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 18 2023 NCD 5 NCD 2023 NCD 25.7 6066 2022 23H2 NCD 22H2 23H2 NCD 4076 7359 28 2019-2023 wind 29 2019-2023 wind 2022 NCD NCD 1 A 3M NCD 25%40%3M 2 3M NCD 3M NCD 2023 11 12 2 2024 2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-150.0%-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2023 19 1 NCD 1 NCD 1 2019-2023 1 200 1 1.4 2023 12 1 NCD NCD NCD 2024 2023 1 NCD 2 2023 2023 2024 7848 4471.4 12355 57.4%14000 22673 17000 21.4%9500 9534.3 10088 6.2%14700 11986 14300-2.7%6500/6500 0.0%9000 11368.8 10300 14.4%9050/9050 0.0%13139/13142 0.0%10600 9773 10850 2.4%4569.8 5360.8 4871 6.6%5400 7251.3 5600 3.7%5177 4940.7 5720 10.5%2200 3141.9 2400 9.1%20 2024 1(601288)(601398)(601328)2(600919)(002966)(600926)(601838)3(601009)(601077)(601169)1 2 3 24H2 24H2 21 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%