20240331_招商证券_建材行业定期报告：地产政策持续优化关注建材需求底部修复_25页.pdf
|2024 03 31/2024/3/25-3/29 0.8%10-30/30/3 1 1764/76/6693.6+332.2+5.22%+4.1%27.2+1.3-16.8 1 2 3 24Q2/%107 2.1 830.0 1.1 685.3 1.0%1m 6m 12m 3.2-17.1-23.5 2.6-13.0-11.8 1 2024-03-26 2 C 2024-03-18 3 2024-03-11 S1090517070008 S1090523070010-40-30-20-10010Apr/23 Jul/23 Nov/23 Mar/24(%)建材 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.6.7 1.7 2.8 1.8 2.8 3.9 4.9 5.13 6.15 7.18.19 1.19 2.20.22 1 2023 156.83 17.80%.22 2 2023 8.02 17.85%.22 3 2023 337.57 10.79%.22 4 2023 65.95 31.12%.22 5 2023 81.90 27.40%.23 6 2023 104.10 20.24%.23 7 2023 282.35 18.26%.23 8 2023 215.37 39.21%.23 9 2023 78.02 2.00%.23 1ZCXvMqNoNoPqOnOrMtMpO8O8Q9PsQqQtRtPkPqQmQfQmMoM6MoOvNNZmQqMNZmOmQ 3 1 P.O42.5/.12 2/.12 3 P.O42.5/.12 4 P.O42.5/.12 5 P.O42.5/.12 6 P.O42.5/.12 7 P.O42.5/.13 8 P.O42.5/.13 9%.13 10/.14 11/.14 12/.15 13/.15 14.15 15/.17 16/.17 17/.17 18.17 19.17 20 PVC PPR HDPE/.18 21/.18 22/.18 23 LNG/.18 24/.18 25/.18 26.19 27.19 28.19 29 PE 2023.20 4 30 PE 2023.20 1.9 2.20 jPjOFEqhlwGZpPUQAomqcciCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfafGyStxir0DNX/Jh0I4WyY 5 1 0.8%10-30/30/3 1 1764/76/6693.6+332.2+5.22%+4.1%27.2+1.3-16.8 1 2 2 3 24Q2/6 3+C+2024-2025 EPS 0.93 0.98 2023-2024 EPS 0.76 0.92+2023 1-6,15.1%C 2023-2024 EPS 1.36 1.81+/2023-2024 EPS 0.55 0.77+2023-2024 EPS 0.58 0.71+2024-2025 7 EPS 2.58 2.95+2023-2024 EPS 1.59 2.07+&2024-2025 EPS 0.99 1.15 1+N+2023-2024 EPS 0.60 0.80 2024-2025 EPS 0.66 0.80 1 1 3 31 3 PMI PMI 50.8%53.0%52.7%1.7 1.6 1.8 2 3 28 8+2 1 1 3 27 3 2 3 25 2 2 0.3%66.2 67.7 1 66.4 66.1 2 1 3 29 REIT REIT A+H+REITs 2 2024 123 1 2 3 123 1 2 3 3 3 30 2025 2023 0.2 2023 2 55%8%9 3 1 2024 4000t/d 4000t/d 52 2024 40-80 2 3 28 2023 2024 6/2021 2023 4.5%2021 41.3 2022 45.6 2023 47.1 3 2024 2024 6 1 GB175-2007 16kg 8kg GB175-2023 20kg 10kg 16kg 8kg 4 0.8%10-30/30/3 1 1 5 2-3 30/5 3 20/2 30 4 30 1 10 1-2 2-3 20/6-7 6-7 10/10-15/7 20/P.O42.5 270-290/6-8 70%-80%6-7 6-7 7-8 5 3-4 5 10/6-7 5-6 70%5-8 6 3-4 4-5 5 5-6 7 10/5-6 10-20/5-6 4-5 5-6 6 4-5 4-6 30%5 5 2024 40-93 5-6 11 10/10-20/4 4 6 30/6 6 20-30/8 4-5 20/6-7 6-7 30/3 3-4 20-30/2-3 3-4 20-30/3 20-30/6 60%-70%3-4 3 3 5-10/2 P.O42.5 Q5500 720/271/2.10/100kg 12 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/200300400500600700第1周第3周第5周第7周第9 周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周第49周第51周2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年2018年 2019年 2020年 2021年2022年 2023年 2024年02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001502002503003504004505005502016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03水泥煤炭 价格差 动力煤价 格（右 轴）1502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/13 13 7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/65.31%1.88pct 10 5 50%9%5 1808/76/1502002503003504004505005506006502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/131502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/132023/9/1301020304050607080902016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/12/312017/3/312017/6/302017/9/302017/12/312018/3/312018/6/302018/9/302018/12/312019/3/312019/6/302019/9/302019/12/312020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/312023/3/312023/6/302023/9/302023/12/31 14 10/11/2021 2022 89.41%0.19%73.40 0.22%83.36 0.97 1.18%35%17+1+22+2+45%16+1+20+1+50%15+1+20+1+88+%72+17.65 10.06 3-4 4000-5000 14001600180020002200240026002022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/03华北 华东 华中 华南东北 西南 西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1 周第3 周第5 周第7 周第9 周第11 周第13 周第15 周第17 周第19 周第21 周第23 周第25 周第27 周第29 周第31 周第33 周第35 周第37 周第39 周第41 周第43 周第45 周第47 周2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 20222023 2024 15 12/13/Wind 304(20.35/259 45 20240328 17.65 21 21 20240322-0328 123.52+0.4%+11.42%20240328 27030/21 20240322-20240328 18.92-2.52%20240328 85.2%21 86.72%21 20240322-0328 85.2%86.72%+0.34%20240328 6693.6+332.2+5.22%+4.1%27.2+1.3-16.8 14 6 050010001500200025003000350040002010/1/102011/1/102012/1/102013/1/102014/1/102015/1/102016/1/102017/1/102018/1/102019/1/102020/1/102021/1/102022/1/102023/1/102024/1/10全国平均-10000100020002015/1/22015/6/22015/11/22016/4/22016/9/22017/2/22017/7/22017/12/22018/5/22018/10/22019/3/22019/8/22020/1/22020/6/22020/11/22021/4/22021/9/22022/2/22022/7/22022/12/22023/5/22023/10/22024/3/2浮法玻璃：以煤 炭为燃 料的浮 法工 艺：生产毛利浮法玻璃：以石 油焦为 燃料的 浮法 工艺：生产 毛利01000200030004000500060007000800090002009/042009/102010/042010/102011/042011/102012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/042023/10 16 2024.3.22-2024.3.28 2400tex 3500-3700/2400tex 3500-3700/2400texSMC 4200/2400tex 5900-6000/2400tex 3900/2400tex 4100-4200/2000tex 4100-4200/17 15/16/17/18 19 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001月 2 月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001 月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,0001 月 2 月 3 月 4月 5月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12 月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20240204060801002017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/01库存（万 吨）0204060801001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年 2023 年 18 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 24/25/Wind Wind 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/12PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002024/2/312023-10-302023-6-302023-2-282022-10-312022-6-302022-2-282021-10-312021-6-302021-2-282020-10-312020-6-302020-2-292019-10-312019-6-302019-2-282018-10-312018-6-302018-2-282017-10-312017-6-302017-2-282016-10-312016-5-312016-1-312015-8-312015-1-31国废均价020004000600080002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/022023/072023/12全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青02000400060008000100002014/042014/092015/022015/072015/122016/052016/102017/032017/082018/012018/062018/112019/042019/092020/022020/072020/122021/052021/102022/032022/082023/012023/062023/11LNG 价格05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10钛白粉价 格05000100001500020000250003000035000400002018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/12环氧树脂 价格 19 1 0.23%2.73%0.52%5.69%0.37%0.04%-0.93%-1.19%-1.80%-2.58%26 iFinD 2021 27 28 iFinD iFinD 2021 2023 11 A 6.81 11.43 16.49 18.91 23.41 31.34 42.33 77.08 84.74 4%4%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-3%-3%-4%-4%-6%-10%-12.0%-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%石油石化有色金属家用电器公用事业纺织服饰银行环保交通运输基础化工建筑装饰钢铁建筑材料煤炭食品饮料国防军工综合轻工制造美容护理机械设备电力设备房地产商贸零售汽车农林牧渔医药生物非银金融社会服务通信电子计算机传媒-2.73%-2.40%-1.72%-0.23%-0.52%-3.0%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%创业板指 中小板指 深证成指 上证综指 建材行业-2.58%-1.80%-1.19%-0.93%0.04%0.37%5.69%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%水泥制品管材水泥制造玻璃制造其他建材耐火材料玻纤制造 20 29 PE 2023 30 PE 2023 iFinD 2021 iFinD 2021 2 14.74%10.68%9.35%5.41%4.14%-17.01%-11.39%-9.22%-8.77%-8.57%2 1 14.74%39.93%32.62%2 10.68%22.78%24.53%3 9.35%22.22%21.45%4 5.41%21.92%10.67%5 4.14%20.74%9.90%6 3.80%17.76%9.78%7 3.35%17.08%9.66%8 2.77%16.96%8.69%9 2.46%16.44%8.06%10 2.36%15.72%7.89%11 1.73%14.81%6.70%12 1.71%14.58%6.36%13 1.64%14.48%5.61%14 1.50%14.29%5.17%15 1.19%12.83%4.80%16 0.79%12.79%2.25%17 0.70%12.31%-0.19%18 0.58%11.68%-0.62%19 0.41%11.43%-1.24%20 0.40%11.36%A-1.80%21 0.34%10.86%-2.62%22 0.29%10.85%-3.17%23 0.14%10.70%-3.33%24 0.13%10.42%-4.75%25 0.04%10.14%-5.02%26 0.00%10.11%-6.33%27-0.10%9.95%-6.61%5 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 25 26 26 31 32 32 37 42 51 0102030405060银行煤炭建筑装饰石油石化房地产建筑材料有色金属钢铁非银金融家用电器基础化工交通运输纺织服装环保公用事业轻工制造电力设备农林牧渔通信汽车商贸零售机械设备医药生物食品饮料传媒美容护理电子社会服务国防军工计算机综合6.81 11.43 16.49 18.91 23.41 31.34 42.33 77.08 84.74 0102030405060708090水泥制品水泥制造管材耐火材料玻纤制造玻璃制造涂料其他建材防水材料 21 28-0.19%9.86%-7.44%29-0.24%9.70%-7.74%30-0.27%9.54%-7.84%31-0.41%9.42%-8.06%32-0.44%9.33%-8.21%33-0.45%8.98%-8.65%34-0.51%8.95%-8.92%35-0.71%8.65%-9.56%36-0.89%8.56%-9.79%37 A-0.91%8.22%-9.93%38-0.96%8.18%ST-10.06%39-0.96%8.10%-10.06%40-1.18%7.84%-10.18%41-1.19%7.19%-10.97%42-1.20%6.97%-11.68%43-1.36%6.83%-11.81%44-1.42%6.60%-11.95%45-1.48%6.49%-12.22%46-1.57%6.38%-12.38%47-1.58%6.23%-12.83%48-1.59%6.22%-13.90%49-1.76%5.60%-14.47%50-1.83%4.36%-14.53%51-1.83%4.36%-15.57%52-2.05%4.34%-16.09%53-2.09%3.89%-16.12%54-2.11%1.88%-16.50%55-2.24%1.80%-17.08%56-2.27%1.79%-17.47%57-2.27%1.72%-17.60%58-2.30%1.62%-17.87%59-2.53%1.42%-18.14%60-2.58%1.24%-18.54%61-2.77%1.21%-18.65%62-2.96%1.20%-19.06%63-2.96%1.19%-19.20%64-3.05%0.82%-19.35%65-3.10%0.81%-19.53%66-3.77%0.11%-19.92%67-3.87%0.00%-19.96%68-3.87%-0.13%-20.16%69-3.90%-0.38%-20.44%70-3.98%-0.78%-21.28%71-4.06%-1.16%-22.57%72-4.12%ST-1.30%-22.80%73-4.16%-1.73%-23.07%74-4.30%-1.98%-23.08%75-4.35%-2.37%-23.20%76-4.40%-2.54%-23.27%77-4.55%-2.56%-23.99%78-4.72%-2.67%-24.47%79-4.84%-2.76%-25.65%22 80-4.84%A-2.84%-25.73%81-4.95%-3.20%-26.24%82-5.00%-3.46%-26.27%83-5.69%-3.63%-26.48%84-6.33%-4.57%-26.54%85-6.58%-4.62%-27.80%86 ST-6.68%-4.84%-28.21%87-6.72%-5.62%-28.62%88-6.79%-5.72%-29.05%89 ST-7.03%-6.58%-29.63%90-7.46%-6.62%-29.63%91-7.89%-7.59%-30.24%92-8.06%-8.70%-30.25%93-8.24%-9.34%-30.38%94-8.57%-9.54%-32.79%95-8.77%-12.25%-36.45%96-9.22%-14.44%ST-38.23%97-11.39%-16.91%-39.34%98-17.01%ST-19.38%-42.41%1 2023 156.83 17.80%2023 156.83 17.80%;17.51 33.06%0.6554/ROE 13.32%2 2023 8.02 17.85%2023 8.02 17.85%;-1.25-0.0828/ROE-8.19%3 2023 337.57 10.79%2023 337.57 10.79%;27.62 2.34%1.33/ROE 9.82%4 2023 65.95 31.12%2023 65.95 31.12%;3.95 3.50%0.61/ROE 8.91%23 5 2023 81.90 27.40%2023 81.90 27.40%;2.29 41.17%0.2867/ROE 3.30%6 2023 104.10 20.24%2023 104.10 20.24%;2.97 43.78%0.62/ROE 4.21%7 2023 282.35 18.26%2023 282.35 18.26%-14.98 210.36%-0.564/ROE-5.09%8 2023 215.37 39.21%215.37 39.21%;27.60 30.00%1.24/ROE 15.49%9 2023 78.02 2.00%2023 78.02 2.00%;3.24 2.00%1.01/ROE 6.55%24 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%25“”
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