20240309_国盛证券_建筑装饰行业：建筑央国企矿产资源板块重估空间有多大？_24页.pdf

|2024 03 09 2020Q2 2016 1 5/2022 50.8 16%2018-2022CAGR 31%2023 46 731 PE 292 1543 2274 41%2 3/2022 15.8 15%2018-2022CAGR 58%2023 16 256 102 728 984 42%3 2022 10 16 23%2023 102 227 510 358 1197 32%4 2022 11 51%2.1%5 11 2022 39 8.4%0.6 0.6%PB0.59X PB0.71X PB0.71X PB0.74X PE7X 2023 S0680518030004 S0680518010003 S0680122060010 1 2024-03-03 2 2024-02-25 3 2024-02-16 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 601390.SH 1.26 1.36 1.52 1.63 5.14 4.76 4.27 3.99 601618.SH 0.50 0.57 0.64 0.70 6.74 5.86 5.23 4.76 601669.SH 0.66 0.74 0.83 0.95 7.92 7.10 6.34 5.55 600170.SH 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.29 15.86 9.91 8.96 8.21 600039.SH 1.29 1.09 1.15 1.20 6.26 7.39 7.02 6.69 Wind-32%-16%0%16%2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 300 2024 03 09 P.2 1.4 2.7 2.1./16%.7 2.2./15%.10 2.3.13 2.4.16 2.5.17 3.19 3.1.19 3.2.19 3.3.20 4.21 5.22 6.23 1 CRB.4 2.5 3 2022.6 4 2023 6 30.7 5.8 6.8 7 2022.8 8 2022.8 9.9 10 LME.9 11.9 12.9 13.10 14.10 15.10 16.11 17.11 18 LME.11 19.11 20.12 21.12 22 2022&2023H1.13 23 2024.13 24 2023 10.14 25 2023H1.14 26.15 27.15 0YEVxOtOpMmNqOpMsPtMqR6M8Q6MtRoOoMqMjMmMnOkPoPrQ7NnNwOMYoNqRwMsQpM 2024 03 09 P.3 28.15 29 2020 6 30.16 30.16 31.16 32.17 33.18 34.18 35.18 36.19 37.19 38 2022.20 39.21 40.22 41.22 2024 03 09 P.4 1.2020 2020 CRB 4 18.2%2020 4 2020 4-2022 4 CRB 131.7%2022 2023 4 57%/100%/78%2020 80%/34%/75%2016 1 CRB Wind 020040060080010001200140016002020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01CRB:2024 03 09 P.5 2 Wind 2017 2018-2022 17.1 50.8 31.4%16%2022 75 55.6%50.8 16%2022 89 36.4%15.8 15.4%2018-2022CAGR 58%2022 32 10.2 19.3 15.7 25.9 22.7%2022 11 50.8%2.1%3.4 2022 25.3%2022 39 2024 03 09 P.6 8.4%0.6 0.6%3 2022 75.04 88.66 32.20 10.66 39.06 0.7%1.5%0.6%0.4%2.9%41.75 32.23 15.11 5.41 3.26 55.6%36.4%46.9%50.8%8.4%3.7%5.6%2.2%2.1%1.4%50.79 15.84 25.93 3.43 0.64 16.2%15.4%22.7%25.3%0.6%Wind 2024 03 09 P.7 2.2.1./16%/2007 5 MKM SICOMINE/2023H1/758/59/63 331/25/53 4 2023 6 30(%)63.27 83%52.51 60.17 60.26 100%-SICOMINES 709.38 41.72%295.95 45.86 30.92 67%57.01 23.78 45.26 72%32.59 21.38 21.6 101%1.28 0.92 MKM 3.10 80.20%2.49 11.95 12.35 103%0.32 0.26 17.24 100%17.24 15.4 15.4 100%42.12 42.12 0.08 0.08 4.11 100%4.11/15.47 15.47 0.08 0.08 0.0003 100%0.0003/8.97 100%8.97 3.3 3.3 100%6.52 6.52 0.03 0.03 2024 03 09 P.8 5 757.74 331.03 58.61 24.96 63.27 52.51 21.35 21.35 57.59 57.59 0.16 0.16 0.0003 0.0003 2023 2022 30.3/0.5/1.5/1.0/2.4/0.05+25%/+60%/0%/-13%/+10%/+16%13.3%2023/-6%/-5%/+4%/33%/50%/33%6 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 21.18 24.23 30.29 14.83 yoy 5.4%14.4%25.0%-5.8%0.26 0.32 0.52 0.25 yoy 0.0%25.6%60.0%-5.3%0.80 1.50 1.50 0.81 yoy-48.7%87.8%0.0%4.0%1.43 1.09 0.95 0.60 yoy-16.3%-23.4%-13.0%32.7%2.14 2.14 2.36 1.63 yoy 31.5%0.0%10.0%50.3%0.004 0.004 0.005 0.003 yoy 0.1%-10.7%16.0%32.5%7 2022 8 2022 00.511.522.53 2022,23.3%,13.4%,13.3%,7.2%,4.1%,38.8%2024 03 09 P.9 2022 75 26%2020-2022 CAGR 38%2022-2023 2022/2023+25%/+36%2023H1 59%2023H1 122.5 2%25.2 16%22.4%19.4 pct 9 10 LME Wind Wind 11 12 Wind 01002003004005006007008002020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2023/01 2024/01:(1#,9 9.9 5%,):(1#,9 9.9 5%,)0200040006000800010000120002020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01:LME(/):LME(/)-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 03 09 P.10 13 14 Wind Wind 2.2./15%3 20 1.50 0.85%0.09%128 14 40 20 84 39 7.81%3.61%20 2023H1 185 2022 2023 2.4/15 15000 0.85%128 0.09%14 1080 7.81%84 3.61%39 34800 0.36%185 101400 0.32%328 66200 1.67%1108 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01020304050602021 2022 2023H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%2021 2022 2023H1 2022H1 2024 03 09 P.11 16 128 128 14 14 1621 185 39 39 84 84 17 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 3.37 3.16 3.43 1.68 yoy 1.8%-6.2%8.5%-0.5%0.29 0.30 0.33 0.15 yoy 0.9%2.0%10.0%-0.7%1.32 1.88 1.63 0.48 yoy 1.2%42.4%-13.3%25.2%0.71 0.73 0.89 0.42 yoy-2.8%21.9%-8.2%3.51 3.54 4.23 2.21 yoy-0.9%19.5%-5.6%15%2017 2022 15.8 15.4%2017-2022 GAGR 48.8%2023 35.5%/2.1%/9.3%/21.3%15.3%2023H1/42.8/11.9+19%/-15%34.5%11.8 pct 18 LME 19 Wind Wind 01000020000300004000050000600002020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01:LME/:LME/0102030405060702020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01:/:/2024 03 09 P.12 20 21 2022 47.5/8.2/15.1 21%/52%/13%11 15.7%3 38.2%2023 2023H1/9/0.6/0.8 11.86 16.4%42.630.237.956.752.8 51.843.866.788.742.8-13.2-31.2-9.22.2 2.5 2.23.518.215.810.1-40-200204060801002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 03 09 P.13 22 2022&2023H1 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 2022 2023H1 88.66 42.82 1.5%1.3%15.84 11.86 15.4%16.4%yoy 32.9%19.2%-12.9%-15.1%47.46 27.90 0.8%0.8%10.77 9.00 10.5%12.5%yoy 21.0%8.9%-15.7%43.5%15.08 5.30 0.3%0.2%-0.63 0.9%yoy 12.6%-18.5%-42.4%8.23 2.90 0.1%0.1%2.81 0.80 2.7%1.1%yoy 51.5%-23.9%38.2%-54.9%Wind 2040 31%2022 3 10.14 327.87 0.32%23 2024 Wood Mackenzie 2.3.2023 6 23 89.5 4.9/1074,47%,31%,13%,5%,4%2024 03 09 P.14 24 2023 10 19.1 7000 3.0 2000 5.5 2100 2655.8 200 JH21-09 4178 3.1 2000 1.6 930 3.0 2000 2023 9171.5 1120 2023 1.9 980 2023 1.8 1110 2023 12.5 7000 2024 7 5.4 2000 2025 1 3.8 5710 2023 2022 4.1 1700 5.1 2300 3341.1 151.63 4712.2 300 2022 JH22-03 2347 2022 6 1.17 0.95 2023H1 19.11 18.7%0.7%2.7%46.9%34.9 pct 25 2023H1 19.1 2817.5 0.7%18.7%5.9%9.0 338.4 2.7%46.9%12.0%Wind 25%2008 41.72%25.28%1%20%12%66.64 36.64 30 2024 03 09 P.15 26 2.5 3.47%0.215%2023H1 709 57 179 14.4 2016 2021 12 25.35 5180 2022 19.3 2019-2022 CAGR 63%14%27 709.4 57.0 179.3 14.4 3.47%0.22%25.4 0.5 28 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%05101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy 2024 03 09 P.16 2.4.2012 60%Koka Main Koka South Koka Main 2000t/d 2020 6 573.9 4.04/23.2 74.6 29 2020 6 30/Koka Main 181.55 3.68 6672.77 Koka Main 180.57 4.41 7965.73 Koka South 211.8 4.04 8564.23 392.37 4.21 16529.96+573.92 4.04 23202.73 2022 10.66 80.68%2019-2022 CAGR 18.91%2020 61.71%52.04 pct 2020-2022 50%30 31-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0200004000060000800001000001200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 03 09 P.17 32 Wind 2.5.11 8 3 5.99 7610 2021 5 5893.4 47.05 112.28 25.45 755.26 EPC 2023 3 STB Eritrea Pty Ltd STB ColluliMining Share Company CMSC 50%11.13 3.03 11%2023 9 8.41 85%1635.9 27.20%60/797.7 30.62%40/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 03 09 P.18 33 5893.4 47.05 60%28.2 400 112.28 67.4 0.0025 0.0015 0.0755 0.05 30300 3333 50%1666.5 540 891.47 254.72 65%165.6 103 232.38-65%-22 232.65-65%-34 3881.2 50.22 75%37.67 18 2433.6 689.22 85%585.84 100 2022 39.06 183.67%2023H1 14.06 11.76%2022/2023H1 8.4%/3.9%2.9/1.4 pct 34 35 Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0510152025303540452021 2022 2023H1 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2021 2022 2023H1 2024 03 09 P.19 3.3.1.1/331 60%1/3 53 1.7 2 128 14 40 36 331.03 185.00 3209.44 569.15 983 24.96 14.00-161.4-128.00-21.35 39.00 60.42-57.59 84.00 419.51-0.16-0.19 0.11-0.0003-0.12 0.01-52.51-30.17 3.2.2022 1 30 1/3 1.5 2 3.4 50%37 30.29 1.63 87.7 20.42 9.04 27.7 0.52 0.33-3.85 2.03-3.43-7.00-0.95 0.89-2.36 4.23 40.2-0.005-0.04 0.12-0.01 0.01-1.50-0.81-1.51 2024 03 09 P.20 3.3.2022 88.7 55.6%2022 51 16%15.8 15%25.9 23%/0.6/3.4 0.6%/25%47.4%42.4%5.1 pct PE-TTM 7.6 38 2022 PE-TTM 75.0 41.8 55.6%50.8 16.2%5.0 88.7 32.2 36.4%15.8 15.4%5.9 32.2 15.1 46.9%25.9 22.7%7.4 39.1 3.3 8.4%0.6 0.6%14.3 10.7 5.4 50.8%3.4 25.3%5.4 673.9 345.9 51.3%265.0 20.1 51.0 17.4 34.1%12.6 11.8 253.8 105.6 41.6%73.1 45.5 Wind PE-TTM 2024/3/8/2024 03 09 P.21 4.2023 338 2023 2023 10%46 2023 Wind PE 16X 731 292 2023 PE 5.3X 1543 2274 2024/3/8 41%2023 118 2023 16 2022 PE16X 256 102 2023 PE7.1 728 984 2024/3/8 42%2023 128 2022 10 2022 10%14.2 102/227 510/358 1197 2024/3/8 32%39 EPS PE PB-lf 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 26.92 2.29 2.57 3.51 4.38 11.77 10.48 7.67 6.14 1.43 6.75 0.28 0.34 0.47 0.52 24.03 20.04 14.51 12.90 2.73 14.89 0.76 0.84 1.03 1.26 19.56 17.72 14.41 11.79 3.85 18.45 16.08 12.19 10.28 2.67 23.80 2.96 2.30 2.80 3.18 8.05 10.33 8.51 7.49 0.68 13.59 1.30 1.34 1.70 1.99 10.47 10.17 7.99 6.82 1.00 9.26 10.25 8.25 7.16 0.84 9.45-0.47 0.84 0.98 1.11-20.08 11.25 9.66 8.50 2.57 25.83 0.87 1.12 1.40 1.48 29.66 23.08 18.46 17.46 3.12 15.20 0.55 0.90 1.05 1.14 27.77 16.89 14.54 13.31 2.14-17.07 14.22 13.09 2.61 Wind 2024/3/8 2024 03 09 P.22 40 338 118 128 46 16 10 14 PE 16 16 10 16 731 256 102 227 292 102 30 73 PE 5 7 17 5 1543 728 510 358 6.7 8.3 9.4 2274 984 1197 1609 692 906 41%42%32%Wind 5.PB0.59X PB0.71X PB0.71X PB0.74X PE7X 2023 41 Wind 2024 3 8 EPS Wind EPS 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 5.30 1.22 1.25 1.35 1.45 4.33 4.24 3.91 3.66 0.54 6.50 1.26 1.36 1.52 1.63 5.14 4.76 4.27 3.99 0.59 8.47 1.96 2.08 2.24 2.38 4.32 4.08 3.77 3.56 0.47 8.31 1.17 1.27 1.38 1.50 7.08 6.56 6.04 5.54 0.53 7.03 0.89 0.90 1.02 1.18 7.93 7.77 6.86 5.98 0.77 2.17 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.23 11.58 12.32 10.71 9.47 0.95 3.34 0.50 0.57 0.64 0.70 6.74 5.86 5.23 4.76 0.71 5.26 0.66 0.74 0.83 0.95 7.92 7.10 6.34 5.55 0.71 8.78 1.58 1.83 2.08 2.32 5.56 4.80 4.23 3.78 0.75 4.65 0.80 0.89 1.02 1.17 5.78 5.25 4.57 3.97 0.85 2.42 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.29 15.86 9.91 8.96 8.21 0.74 8.06 1.29 1.09 1.15 1.20 6.26 7.39 7.02 6.69 1.58 5.48 1.60 1.53 1.75 1.92 3.42 3.57 3.14 2.86 0.67 3.73 0.61 0.54 0.65 0.79 6.14 6.92 5.70 4.73 0.71 6.02 0.58 0.69 0.80 0.92 10.29 8.76 7.48 6.55 0.78 6.23 0.89 0.97 1.07 1.17 6.97 6.41 5.85 5.34 0.72 11.70 0.55 0.64 0.77 0.91 21.47 18.19 15.22 12.88 2.46细分领域建筑央企地方国企EPS PEPB 2024 03 09 P.23 6.2024 03 09 P.24“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033