20240225_广发证券_金属及金属新材料行业：国内需求迎改善金属板块迎良机_25页.pdf
识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/25 T ab l e _ P ag e 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 T ab l e _ T i t l e T ab l e _ S u m mary P M I LPR Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.03%-1.44%1.43%1.19%-2.35%2 Markit PMI 51.5 50.5 50.7 2024 2 20 5 LPR 25 3.95%PMI LPR A+H A+H Wind 2 19 2 23-0.38%-6.69%-0.32%0.00%0.86 PCT 24.69%22%Wind 2 19 2 23 COMEX 1.00%2045.8/0.29%103.97 2 17 20.1 21.8 21.3 2 10 186.2 188.5 188.9 1 A+H H Wind 2 19 2 23 0.50%9.64/0.21%8.51/SC6 1000/Wind 2 19 2 23 6.02%37.50/12.38/2.74%3375/T a bl e _G r a de 2024-02-25 T ab l e _ P i cQ u o t e T ab l e _ A u t h o r SAC S0260518070003 SFC CE No.BOB672 010-59136627 SAC S0260513080002 SFC CE No.BNV167 0755-88286912 SAC S0260523050004 021-38003617 T ab l e _ D o cRe p o r t:2024-02-18 T ab l e _ Co n t ac ts 010-59136627 021-38003631-33%-26%-19%-12%-5%2%02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 300 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 601600.SH CNY 6.16 2023/10/26 7.77 0.39 0.41 15.79 15.02 3.22 3.06 11.80 11.70 002532.SZ CNY 5.74 2023/10/27 8.41 0.65 0.69 8.83 8.32 4.09 3.75 11.90 11.50 601168.SH CNY 17.08 2023/10/22 15.79 1.32 1.40 12.94 12.20 5.17 5.23 16.90 15.80 600019.SH CNY 6.66 2023/10/25 6.75 0.56 0.63 11.89 10.57 4.31 4.03 6.30 6.90 002318.SZ CNY 21.69 2023/10/30 23.66 1.58 1.89 13.73 11.48 13.70 11.26 21.10 21.90 000975.SZ CNY 14.57 2023/10/29 16.81 0.56 0.60 26.02 24.28 11.57 10.98 13.10 12.90 600456.SH CNY 26.42 2023/10/28 45.48 1.57 2.11 16.83 12.52 8.19 7.40 11.30 14.00 688122.SH CNY 39.33 2023/09/03 56.01 1.60 2.04 24.58 19.28 17.86 14.44 15.70 17.90 601958.SH CNY 10.03 2024/01/25 14.12 0.97 1.01 10.34 9.93 6.42 6.22 20.70 19.80 300855.SZ CNY 23.35 2023/10/22 40.39 0.87 1.22 26.84 19.14 21.17 15.51 18.80 20.70 000807.SZ CNY 11.69 2023/10/26 17.43 1.25 1.27 9.35 9.20 5.04 4.99 16.50 14.70 000708.SZ CNY 14.54 2023/10/30 21.24 1.25 1.45 11.63 10.03 6.27 5.67 17.10 19.30 000878.SZ CNY 11.25 2023/10/27 14.81 1.14 1.35 9.87 8.33 3.89 3.47 15.50 17.00 600547.SH CNY 22.03 2024/01/31 25.66 0.52 0.86 42.37 25.62 11.38 8.65 6.80 10.60 02600.HK HKD 4.17 2023/10/26 5.27 0.39 0.41 10.69 10.17 4.69 4.16 11.80 11.70 01787.HK HKD 12.66 2024/01/31 14.04 0.52 0.86 24.35 14.72 11.98 9.13 6.80 10.60 09696.HK HKD 36.10 2024/01/31 45.53 5.29 2.46 6.82 14.67 1.85 4.50 21.60 10.30 01772.HK HKD 23.10 2024/01/31 24.82 2.99 2.02 7.73 11.44 19.05 14.55 12.50 7.80 01818.HK HKD 8.37 2023/11/16 10.66 50.79 35.91 0.16 0.23 19.61 15.98 3.40 4.60 603799.SH CNY 26.88 2023/10/25 58.82 2.80 3.85 9.60 6.98 3.97 3.08 11.90 14.20 603993.SH CNY 6.35 2024/01/19 7.34 0.36 0.49 17.64 12.96 6.85 4.88 12.10 14.80 002466.SZ CNY 47.96 2024/01/31 61.45 5.29 2.46 9.07 19.50 2.03 4.97 21.60 10.30 002460.SZ CNY 36.54 2024/01/31 40.41 2.99 2.02 12.22 18.09 18.13 12.57 12.50 7.80 002240.SZ CNY 20.73 2023/10/30 26.50 1.66 2.03 12.49 10.21 11.11 6.92 14.90 15.50 600392.SH CNY 8.96 2023/10/30 13.56 0.15 0.27 59.73 33.19 35.29 22.25 2.70 4.70 Wind XVCXyRmRsRmNpRoNsPrOmN6MbP8OoMpPmOtPiNrRmOjMtRoQ7NqQuMNZnOnMwMrQyQ 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属.6 PMI LPR.6.7.7.7.8.9.13.23.23 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 5.10 6 10.10 7 10.10 8 10.11 9 10.11 10 500 100.11 11%.12 12%.12 13 LME.14 14 SHFE.14 15 LME.14 16 SHFE.14 17 LME.14 18 SHFE.14 19 LME.15 20 SHFE.15 21 LME.15 22 SHFE.15 23 LME.15 24 SHFE.15 25.16 26.16 27.16 28 MB.16 29.16 30.16 31.17 32.17 33.17 34.17 35.17 36.17 37.18 38.18 39:.19 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 40.19 41.19 42.19 43.19 44.19 45.20 46.20 47:.20 48:.20 49:.20 50:.20 51:.21 52:.21 53:.21 54:.21 55:.21 56:.21 57:.22 58:.22 59 GDP.23 60 CPI.23 61.23 62 PMI.23 1.13 2.18 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 P M I LPR Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.03%-1.44%1.43%1.19%-2.35%LME-5.95%8.48%-2.13%1.43%-0.08%SHFE 2.07%-0.29%-2.25%-0.58%-0.36%SHFE 109.57%65.59%32.92%163.78%15.17%Wind 2 Markit PMI 51.5 50.5 50.7 2024 1 1 Wind 2024 2 20 5 LPR 25 3.95%PMI LPR Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.03%8,559.00/LME 5.95%122,900 SHFE 2.07%69,370.00/SHFE 109.57%181,323 SMM Mysteel 2 22 28.64 0.07 11.81 2 23 64.71%4.85%1.12 3.24 55.32%23.45PCT Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.44%2,184.00/LME 8.48%580,275 SHFE 0.29%18,850.00/SHFE 65.59%173,482 Wind Mysteel SMM 2 22 58.0 6.6 12.5 4.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 0.7PCT 42.5%58.0%49.0%42.0%74.4%76.3%Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.19%2,416.50/LME 1.43%268,600 SHFE 0.58%20,395.00/SHFE 163.78%88,611 SMM 2 22 SMM 16.23 2 8 6.40 46.30 15.39 15.10PCT 47.22%28.27%21.20%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 1.43%2,099.50/LME 2.13%173,800 SHFE 2.25%15,885.00/SHFE 32.92%50,142 SMM Mysteel 2 22 4.90 2 8 0.38 1 40.93%2.32PCT Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 2.35%26,365.00/LME 0.08%5,945 SHFE 0.36%216,640.00/SHFE 15.17%10,403 SMM Wind 2 23 12799 2 8 948 43.71%2.06PCT 2 22 2 15 2.40%Wind 2 19 2 23 LME 7.03%17,500.00/LME 1.73%70,308 SHFE 7.42%135,620.00/SHFE 11.23%17,758 Wind 2 19 2 23 22.22%2200.00 92.62%0.38%4244.00/6.69%899.00/0.32%2370.50/2710.00/0.86 PCT 24.69%23M1-12 8.24%9.6%8.5%17.0%6.5%23.5%9.3%Wind 2 19 2 23 COMEX 1.00%2045.8/0.29%103.97 2 17 20.1 21.8 21.3 2 10 186.2 188.5 188.9 1 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 2 19 2 23 0.50%9.64/0.21%8.51/SC6 1000/Wind 2 19 2 23 6.02%37.50/5.32%534.00/3.91%184.50/Wind 2 19 2 23 65%12.38/Wind 2 19 2 23 45%2.74%3375.00/Wind 2 19 2 23 5.20/0.88%0.23/0.94/9.15/2.14%2.06/2.42%635.00/1.39/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 2 19 2 23 4.12%1572.06 2.99%11847.97 2.83%13998.45 3.52%5023.45 2 19 2 23 1 2 Wind Wind Wind 2 19 2 23 0.14%2522.43 1.77%2047.77 2.06%2511.50 3 4 Wind Wind 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002023/2/24 2023/8/24 2024/2/24:0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%01,0002,0003,0004,0002023/2/23 2023/8/23 2024/2/23:0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 5 Wind 6 10 7 10 Wind Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 8 10 9 10 Wind Wind Wind 2 19 2 23 500 1.66%5088.80 0.94%2873.88 1.19%748.18 100 0.07%7706.28 10 500 100 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-3%-2%-1%0%1%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,0002023/2/23 2023/4/23 2023/6/23 2023/8/23 2023/10/23 2023/12/23 2024/2/23 100:500 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 11%Wind 2023 12 29 12%Wind 2023 12 29-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1/9.64-0.05-0.50%-0.50%/8.51-0.02-0.21%-0.21%/21.50-0.30-1.38%-1.38%MB/18.13 0.45 2.55%2.55%MB/16.65 0.57 3.58%3.58%/3.10 0.00 0.00%0.00%LME/17500.00 1150.00 7.03%5.29%SHFE/135620.00 9370.00 7.42%8.31%LME/8559.00 87.00 1.03%-0.04%SHFE/69370.00 1410.00 2.07%0.65%LME/2184.00-32.00-1.44%-8.52%SHFE/18850.00-55.00-0.29%-3.36%LME/2099.50 29.50 1.43%1.57%SHFE/15885.00-365.00-2.25%0.06%LME/2416.50 28.50 1.19%-9.22%SHFE/20395.00-120.00-0.58%-5.34%LME/26365.00-635.00-2.35%4.21%SHFE/216640.00-790.00-0.36%2.14%/5.20 0.00 0.00%0.00%/0.23 0.00 0.88%0.00%/1.39 0.00 0.00%0.00%/0.94 0.00 0.00%0.00%/9.15 0.00 0.00%0.00%/9.15 0.00 0.00%0.00%/635.00 15.00 2.42%0.00%/2.06-0.04-2.14%0.00%COMEX/2045.80 20.30 1.00%-1.25%SHFE/478.96-4.58-0.95%-0.57%COMEX/22.98-0.73-3.09%-5.31%SHFE/5882.00 57.00 0.98%-1.57%/184.50-7.50-3.91%-26.20%/534.00-30.00-5.32%-28.08%/37.50-2.40-6.02%-15.35%65%/12.38 0.00 0.00%1.02%45%/3375.00 90.00 2.74%5.97%Wind 2023 12 29 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 13 L M E 14 S H F E Wind Wind 15 L M E 16 S H F E Wind Wind 17 L M E 1 8 S H F E Wind Wind 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME LME/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000050,000100,000150,000200,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME LME/13,00013,50014,00014,50015,00015,50016,00016,50017,00017,50018,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000050,000100,000150,000200,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 19 L M E 20 S H F E Wind Wind 21 L M E 22 S H F E Wind Wind 23 L M E 24 S H F E Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0000200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME/LME 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23LME LME/050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00005,00010,00015,00020,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE SHFE/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 25 26 Wind Wind 27 28 MB Wind Wind 29 30 Wind Wind 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23 Li2CO3 99.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23 LiOH 56.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23/0510152025303540452022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23MB/MB/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 31 32 Wind Wind 33 34 Wind Wind 35 36 Wind Wind 01234567892022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23 99.7%/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23/050010001500200025002402903403904404905402021/2/23 2022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE/COMEX/10121416182022242628302,4002,9003,4003,9004,4004,9005,4005,9006,4002021/2/23 2022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23SHFE/COMEX/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000024681012142021/2/23 2022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/2365%/45%/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 37 38 Wind Wind 2:/4244.00-16.00-0.38%-0.77%:/4003.00-17.00-0.42%-1.11%:/4234.00-16.00-0.38%-0.70%:/4105.00-28.00-0.68%-1.27%:/4206.00 8.00 0.19%0.74%:/4776.00-8.00-0.17%-1.02%:/4994.00-14.00-0.28%-0.81%:/4269.00-18.00-0.42%-0.72%:/5018.00 5.00 0.10%-0.06%:/4222.00-13.00-0.31%-0.49%:/4406.00-11.00-0.25%-0.70%:/4189.00-12.00-0.29%-0.07%:/4335.00-2.00-0.05%-0.82%/899.00-64.50-6.69%-8.17%/2,370.50-7.50-0.32%-4.86%-/2,710.00 0.00 0.00%-1.45%Wind 2023 12 29 010203040502021/2/23 2022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23/02040608010012005001000150020002021/2/23 2022/2/23 2023/2/23 2024/2/23/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 39:40 Wind Wind 41 42 Wind Wind 43 44 Wind Wind 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23:(:)50%60%70%80%90%100%2022/02/23 2023/02/23 2024/02/23:05001,0001,5002,0002,5002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:()11,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,0004005006007008009001,0001,1002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23():/:(:)()05010015020025030035001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23():(:/):(:)()05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:(:/)识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 45 46 Wind Wind 47:48:Wind Wind 49:50:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:(:/)0%20%40%60%80%100%2022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23(247):01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 51:52:Wind Wind 53:54:Wind Wind 55:56:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 57:58:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002022-02-23 2023-02-23 2024-02-23:/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 59 GDP 60 C P I Wind Wind 61 62 P M I Wind Wind-30-20-1001020302013/122014/062014/122015/062015/122016/062016/122017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12 GDP%GDP%GDP%GDP%-20246810122014/012014/072015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01 CPI%CPI%CPI%CPI%02468101214162014/012014/072015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01%35404550556065702014/012014/072015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01 PMI PMI 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 T able_ResearchT ea m 2011 2021 2021 2023 T a bl e _R a t i n gI ndus t r y 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%T a bl e _R a t i n gC om pa ny 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%T able_ A ddress 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-T able_ L e g alD isclai mer/4 T able_ I m portant N o tices 1 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属/5 T a b l e _I n t e r e s t D i s c l o s ur e(1)12 T able_Copyri g ht
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