20240329_华鑫证券_汽车行业深度报告：行星滚柱丝杠_高精技术集成之作人形机器人线性关节_44页.pdf

2024 03 28 SAC S1050523090001 2 Optimus 14 2,000/2.8 60%8 2030 205.0 2870.3 2030 229.6 CAGR 154.1%AI&1 2 T 3 2023 4 P0 2 3 ZXDWyRrMmPpOtNnOmRoRnM8OaO9PmOmMtRmQiNrRoNiNmOwPbRpPuMxNoNrPMYoNuN3 2024-03-28EPS PE2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E000837.SZ 9.16 0.31 0.22 0.31 29.95 41.64 29.38 300580.SZ 26.07 1.14 0.80 0.97 22.87 32.59 26.88 873593.BJ 36.07 3.05 0.89 1.18 11.83 40.53 30.64 wind wind 2023 2023 EPS PE 4 CIJckpVY6fTE7Rpj97YRd7zkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVkA7SkT8k1pWpbjPxn3WFnP CONTENTS5 1 2 3 4 017 71(PRSM)()/SKF Ewellix 1.1 8 8 PRS 1 3 7 5()2 4 3 6 p ph=1.1 1 9 9 C0 1 2 3 300mm 300mm C10-C7 C5-C3 C3 C2 C10-C7 C5 8 10 12 14 15 20 25 32 mm/mm 2 4 5 8 10 20 25 32 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P7 P10 JIS C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10 IT0 IT1 IT2 IT3 IT4 IT5 IT7 IT10 C0 C1 C3 C5 C7 C10 C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10 E300)(m 3.5 5 7 8 18 50 210 1.2 PRS 1 10 10 DLR Dynamic Load Rating()()()6 1/3 14 2 6000r/min 2m/s EMA EMA 30%50%(0.3mm)TOLOMATIC 1.3 1 11 11 1.4,1 12 12 CT MRI F-35B G5 rollivs E 1.5 1 0214 14 _ PRS PRS PRS PRS PRS PRS PRS 2 2.1 15 15 PRS 2.8570 1.0000 1.0000 0.9800 0.4750 0.0585 0.1-4-2 2 2.1 2 16 16 HRCl 1m 20CrMoA 60 2l 2.5m42CrMoA 55Mn 50Mn 60Mn l2.5m 38CrMoAIA 850HVd40mm GCrl5SiMn 60+2d 40mml 2mGCrl5 60+2 do 40mm GCr15d=40-80mml 2mCrWMn 9Cr18 56 GCr15 CrWMn 9Cr18 60+218CrMnTi 12CrNiA 12Cr2Ni4A GCr15 5000/2.2 42CrMo 42CrMo 35CrMo 42CrMo 5460HRC GCr15 GCr15 5660HRC 2 17 17 PRS PRS,P3,P1,PO P3 P5 P3 Ra=0.5-0.8um,Ra=0.4um,BS,80%,PCBN,2.2 2 18 18(5mm)(2mm)(t=500550 10)1.5mm),1.mm)(4mm 8.5mm)(t=500550 C 10(1mm(5mm 7.5mm)(t=160 C 10 C,36)(0.5mm(15(t-160 C 10 C 36(0.25 mm)0.2.mm)(0.5mm 1 2 HRC56 2.2.1 2 19 19 15 35 25 40 35 50 90%1 2 3 4 80%2.2.1 2 20 20 2023 4 DMG RMS P1 SK7420 P1 P1 840D SK7405 P2 828D 2.2.1 2 SK7405 SK7420 21 21 35 70%GCr15 6265 HRC 6 8 e 110 r/min 600 r/min 1 P 2 _ 2.2.2 2 22 22 CNC Leistritz GWT Burgsmuller Linsinger CNC 1987 2004 Leistritz PW160 CNC 5 Leistritz PW300HP 10mCNC Leistritz PWM200 CNC 60HRC P3 a 0.4 m 0.01mm 0.004mm HJ092 CNC 6m 8m CBN 62HRC C5 a=0.4 CX63 SXC A6163 0.032mm/300mm C7 a HJ092 Leistritz Leistritz LWN 90s2.2.2 2 0324 24 1 2 2 2 Optimus 14 AI day 3.1 Optimus Optimus 3 25 252023 11 3C 3.2 3 26 26 2030 205.0 2,870.3 2023-2030 8.4 2,870.3 130.2%GGII 3.3 2023E-2030E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 0.1 0.7 2.2 7.0 19.5 44.5 99.7 205.0 70 50 45 35 28 22 17 14 8.4 33.9 97.8 243.3 545.0 978.8 1694.3 2870.3 0.20 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.3 1.5 4.3 11.7 30.0 62.3 132.6 229.63 05010015020025005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E人形机器人市场规模（左轴）人形机器人数量（右轴）27 272023-2030 globenewswire GGII 15%Optimus 2*7=14 Rollvis 2000/14*0.2=2.82023-2030+159.5 473.0 CAGR 16.8%2030 229.6 CAGR 154.1%+73.1%3.3 3 0501001502002503003504004505002023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E滚珠丝杠 滚柱丝杠 人形机器人行星滚柱丝杠,29%,21%,16%,15%,14%imu,4%,1%28 28GSA Ewellix Rollvis Rexroth GSA Ewellix Rollvis Rexroth CMC Moog Power Jacks 3.4 E GSA GSA 1982 Rollvis GSA 5mm 245mm 0.5mm 50mm GSA Rollvis Rollvis 1970 Rollvis 5mm 245mm 0.1mm 50mm Rollvis 2016 Rollvis GSA Rexroth Rexroth 10 Ewellix Transrol 1968 SKF 2018 Triton 2019 EWELLIX 2022 8 1200 2021 3 3 29 29 8 GSA Rollvis 26%Ewellix Rexroth 14%12%CR4 78%8%GSA E GSA Rollvis SKF Ewellix Rexroth CMC(mm)kN kN mm 30 5GSA 60-127 76-259 0.02Rollvis 107 225 0.03SKF 105 218 0.02Ewellix 105 218 0.02Rexroth 87 178-CMC 134 282-107 225 0.03 88 168-30 51-48 10GSA 189-289 333-668 0.02Rollvis 198 442 0.04SKF 265 581 0.04Ewellix 265 581 0.04Rexroth 220 475-CMC 221 467-258 559 0.03 232 475-124 219-Ewellix,14%Rollvis,26%GSA,26%Rexroth,12%CMC,3%,3%,8%,8%3.4 3 30 30 2009 15 SKF NSK 2010 2 2015 2016 2021 325 44%3.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 01020304050607080 萌芽期成长期（中国主导）成长期（国外主导）3 31 313.5 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011 2012-2016 2017-2021 14 28 39 61 135 151 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 4 4 2 0 0 3 10 16 2 1 2 6 22 42 0 0 1 2 8 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 16 13 0 0 0 0 3 9 0 0 0 2 10 28 67%12%42 22 14 10 704 8 3 0433 33 80 13 4.1 34 34 mm 3.5-60 10.5-80 8-63 5-63 mm 960 960 960-mm 1-35 2-16 0.25-4 0.8-2.66%75-95 70 90 60 80 60-80 G3,G5(315mm,:12,23)G1,G3,G5(315mm,23)G3,G5 G7(315mm,T5,T7(315mm,:23um,52pm)KN 8.9-950 20.8-225 14.3-560 10-370 KN 3.9-470 13.4-559 7.3-219 8-256 350 2022 3 350 2022 2,367.8 100%33.5%EMB 4.1 35 35 14mm-86mm 0.01mm 0.0006mm 200KG 3D 14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%14mm 0.005mm 20,000 90%4.2 36 36 T 2mm-16mm 0.3mm-25.4mm，Ra 0.2 0.002mm 0.1mm300mm T 0.02mm 300mm 0.01mm 500 150mm 4.2%wind-20-1001020304050607001002003004005006002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E营收（左 轴）营收yoy（右轴）-40040801200204060801001201401601802021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E归母 净利 润（左轴）归母净利润yoy（右轴）37 37-2022 4.3 38 38 2023 12 4.5 279 70 29 5 15 24.8 15 2023 4 2023 1 2 4.3 wind%05101520253005001,0001,5002,0002,5002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E营收（左 轴）营收yoy（右轴）0510152025303501002003004005002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E归母 净利 润（左轴）归母净利润yoy（右轴）39 39 RV 5 23 130 4.4 2022 CK/BL E C F N 5KG800KG SCARA 40 40 P0 2 3 2023 5 P1 P0 2 1 SK6010 828D 300mm 0.052mm SK7405 0.25 12mm SK7612 50mm 0.009mm wind 4.4%-30-20-10010203001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E营收（左 轴）营收yoy（右轴）-40-2002040608010001002003004005002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E归母 净利 润（左轴）归母净利润yoy（右轴）41 42/CPA 6 2023/2023 2024 2 43/12 A 300 1 20%2 10%20%3-10%10%4 10%2-10%10%3-10%44:240328145413