20240304_国盛证券_有色金属行业：通胀与就业数据双降金价反弹补库预期下锂价或偏强震荡_33页.pdf

|2024 03 04 1 PCE 2.8%2.9%2.8%7 1 0.2%0.7%0.2%2 24 21.5 20.2 21 1 49.0 3.29 3.2 LME 0.01 COMEX 0.13 SHFE 0.28 16.41/7.09/SMM 66.2%+10.88pct 2 145.1+13.26+9.3 LME+2.9 COMEX+1.07 6/16703/107/2002/3.2pct 60.2%1 6.2%10.3/5.6%9.4/18.3%11.9/4.0%1040/33.3%2800/2/115/38 33%-51%/-43%Q2 2 37.06 14944.89/0.09%-199.89/93.37/3 S0680521030003 S0680523100002 1 2024-02-25 2 Sigma 2024-02-18 3 2024-02-14 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 000762.SZ 1.53 1.33 2.54 4.65 15.91 18.30 9.58 5.23 601677.SH 1.34 1.38 1.65 1.88 7.89 7.66 6.41 5.62 603993.SH 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.40 22.25 20.10 18.32 15.58 Wind-16%0%16%32%48%2022-05 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 300 2024 03 04 P.2.5 1.1&.5 1.2.6 1.3.8.9.12 3.1.12 3.2.16 3.3.20.21 4.1.21 4.2.26 4.3.27&.30.32 1%.5 2%.5 3%.5 4%.6 5%.6 6.6 7.6 8.7 9.7 10.7 11.8 12 2006.9 13.9 14.9 15%.9 16.10 17 SPDR ETF.10 18 2024 1 35.3 3.7%.10 19.10 20 2024 2 ISM PMI 1.3%47.8%.10 21 2 PMI 0.1%46.5%.10 22 2024 2 PMI 0.1%49.1%.11 23 2024 1 9.5%.11 24 2024 1 CPI 3.1%CPI 3.9%.11 25 2024 2 CPI 2.6%CPI 3.1%.11 26.12 27 1#.12 ZXDWxOmRmPqRsMpMsPqPrQ7NaObRsQmMtRtPeRqQpMeRoOsO7NqQyQMYsOnOuOmMrQ 2024 03 04 P.3 28.13 29.13 30.13 31 TC.13 32.13 33.13 34.14 35.14 36.14 37.14 38.14 39.14 40%.15 41.15 42.15 43.16 44.16 45.16 46.16 47.17 48.17 49&.17 50.17 51.17 52.17 53&.18 54&.18 55.18 56.18 57.18 58.18 59/.19 60.19 61.19 62.19 63.20 64.20 65.20 66/.20 67.22 68.22 69.22 70/.22 71/.22 72/.22 73.23 2024 03 04 P.4 74.23 75.23 76%.23 77.23 78%.23 79.24 80.24 81.24 82%.24 83 GWh.24 84%.24 85.25 86%.25 87.25 88%.25 89.26 90 MB.26 91.26 92/.26 93.27 94 421#.27 95.28 96 553#.28 97 441#.28 98 3303#.28 99 411#.28 100&.28 101.29 102.29 103.29 104.29 105.29 106.29 107&.30 108.30 109:T R E O9 2%/.30 110&92%/.30 111/.30 112/.30 113/.31 114/.31 115.31 116.31 117.31 118.31 2024 03 04 P.5 1.1&A 2.1%7.7%0.7%10.6%2.0%1%Wind 2%3%Wind Wind 2.1%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%7.7%3.3%2.7%2.7%-0.7%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%10.6%3.2%3.0%2.3%1.7%0.5%-2.0%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2024 03 04 P.6+15%+14%+14%-9%-5%-4%4%5%Wind Wind 1.2 1.2 2024 3 1 2024 2 23 2024 2 29 2023 12 29 2023 12 29 6 COMEX/2,053 0.3%0.0%-0.9%-0.9%COMEX/22.90-0.3%0.0%-4.7%-4.7%SHFE/483.8 1.0%0.4%0.4%0.4%SHFE/5,914 0.5%0.7%-1.0%-1.0%Wind 7 SHFE/68,920-0.6%-0.1%0.0%0.0%LME/8,522-0.4%0.5%-0.5%-0.5%SHFE/18,965 0.6%0.2%-2.8%-2.8%LME/2,236 2.4%0.5%-6.3%-6.3%SHFE/137,070 1.1%-0.5%9.5%9.5%LME/17,755 1.5%-0.5%6.8%6.8%SHFE/20,595 1.0%-0.2%-4.4%-4.4%LME/2,433 0.7%0.4%-8.6%-8.6%SHFE/217,990 0.6%-0.4%2.8%2.8%LME/26,415 0.2%-0.2%4.4%4.4%SHFE/15,970 0.5%0.0%0.6%0.6%LME/2,038-2.9%-1.3%-1.4%-1.4%Wind 15%14%14%12%11%11%10%9%9%9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%-2%-2%-2%-3%-3%-4%-4%-4%-5%-9%-10%-9%-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%2024 03 04 P.7 8/36-3.7%-0.6%-18.5%-18.5%/45-5.1%-1.1%-17.6%-17.6%/181-1.9%-0.8%-27.6%-27.6%/225-3.2%-2.2%-29.1%-29.1%/534 0.0%-0.7%-28.1%-28.1%/648-3.0%-1.1%-29.6%-29.6%38EH/36-6.6%0.0%-13.4%-13.4%35UH/29-6.6%0.0%-16.2%-16.2%Wind 9/9.6 6.1%2.7%3.8%3.8%/10.3 6.2%3.5%4.0%4.0%/8.2 5.8%2.5%2.5%2.5%/9.4 5.6%2.2%0.0%0.0%/11.9 18.3%3.1%11.3%11.3%/1040.0 4.0%3.0%-11.9%-11.9%/2800.0 33.3%16.7%47.4%47.4%/13.2 0.0%0.0%3.5%3.5%/3.3 0.0%0.0%1.6%1.6%/20.6 2.0%0.5%-3.3%-3.3%/2.9 3.6%1.8%9.5%9.5%/960.0 2.7%0.0%4.3%4.3%/13.8 0.5%0.3%6.5%6.5%Wind/10 LME 58.9 0.9 2%(0.0)7%4.0 7%4.0 7%SHFE 19.1 1.7 10%0.1 93%9.2 93%9.2 93%LME 12.1(0.2)-1%(0.0)-27%(4.6)-27%(4.6)-27%SHFE 21.4 3.3 18%0.2 594%18.4 594%18.4 594%LME 27.6 0.7 3%(0.0)23%5.1 23%5.1 23%SHFE 9.8 0.9 10%0.1 360%7.6 360%7.6 360%LME 17.9 0.5 3%(0.0)32%4.4 32%4.4 32%SHFE 5.3 0.3 5%0.1 0%0.0 0%0.0 0%LME 7.4 0.3 5%0.0 15%1.0 15%1.0 15%SHFE 1.9 0.1 4%0.0 35%0.5 35%0.5 35%LME 0.6(0.0)-4%(0.0)-26%(0.2)-26%(0.2)-26%SHFE 1.1 0.0 2%0.0 67%0.4 67%0.4 67%Wind 2024 03 04 P.8 1.3 11 行业 公司 公告 内容 铝 南山铝 业 分配预 案 10 1.20 14.05 40.44%铝 南山铝 业 会计变 更 16 铝 丽岛新 材 项目延 期 8.6 2024 2 2024 8 31 钨 厦门钨 业 项目调 整 3.88 4.80 2,000 1,500 1,300 1,200 100 锂 西藏珠 峰 环评进 展 5 5 3 金 银泰黄 金 股权收 购 1.90 Osino Resources Corp.3.68 Osino100%Osino TwinHills 0sino 1.74 6.8%2024 03 04 P.9 1 PCE 2.8%2.9%2.8%7 1 0.2%0.7%0.2%2 24 21.5 20.2 21 12 2006 13 Wind Bloomberg 14 15%Wind Wind 050010001500200025000100200300400500600700800900100006/10 09/10 12/10 15/10 18/10 21/10 MBS COMEX/4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%(4.5)(4.0)(3.5)(3.0)(2.5)(2.0)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.024/01 24/03 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/91215 0131 05001000150020002500-2-10123408/02 11/02 14/02 17/02 20/02 23/02%COMEX/(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.00.51.01.52.02.50.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%19/01 20/01 21/01 22/01 23/01 24/0110Y-2Y%/10Y 2Y 2024 03 04 P.10 16 17 SPDR ETF Wind Wind 18 2024 1 35.3 3.7%19 Wind Wind 20 2024 2 ISM PMI 1.3%47.8%21 2 PMI 0.1%46.5%Wind Wind 85909510010511011512020/01 20/08 21/03 21/10 22/05 22/12 23/07 24/02 020040060080010001200140020/01 20/07 21/01 21/07 22/01 22/07 23/01 23/07 24/0135.33.70 3.03.23.43.63.84.0010203040506022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11%60708090100110120130 2345619/05 19/12 20/07 21/02 21/09 22/04 22/11 23/06 24/01 404550556065707521/06 21/10 22/02 22/06 22/10 23/02 23/06 23/10 24/02:ISM:PMI:ISM:PMI3035404550556022/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02:PMI:PMI 2024 03 04 P.11 22 2024 2 PMI 0.1%49.1%23 2024 1 9.5%Wind Wind 24 2024 1 CPI 3.1%CPI 3.9%25 2024 2 CPI 2.6%CPI 3.1%Wind Wind 40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%21/10 22/02 22/06 22/10 23/02 23/06 23/10 24/02 PMI PMI8%9%9%10%10%11%11%12%21/05 21/10 22/03 22/08 23/01 23/06 23/11 01234567891021/05 21/11 22/05 22/11 23/05 23/11%CPI CPI 02468101221/06 21/12 22/06 22/12 23/06 23/12%CPI CPI 2024 03 04 P.12 3.1 SHFE+LME+COMEX 49.0 3.29 3.2 LME 0.01 COMEX 0.13 16.41/7.09/30.2%SMM 66.2%10.88%26 27 1#Wind Wind 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002345678919/01 19/09 20/05 21/01 21/09 22/05 23/01 23/09SHFE/LME/-400-2000200400600800100019/01 19/09 20/05 21/01 21/09 22/05 23/01 23/091#电解铜升贴水（元/吨）2024 03 04 P.13 28 29 Wind/Mysteel Wind 30 31 TC iFind Wind SMM 32 33 Wind Wind 0204060801001201401 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 492020 2021 20222023 2024010203040506070809010017/03 18/03 19/03 20/03 21/03 22/03 23/03SHFE COMEX LME 40506070809010011012021/05 21/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/0102040608010020/01 20/08 21/03 21/10 22/05 22/12 23/07 24/02TC/TC/210.1 210.1231.1228.1221.4227.3233.0234.0225.81801902002102202302401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023181165182181183187 187 1881891941891401601802002201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 03 04 P.14 34 35 SMM Wind.1 2 12 36 37 Wind iFind 38 39 Wind Wind 101.2-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%506070809010011021/12 22/04 22/08 22/12 23/04 23/08 23/12%1001201401601802002202401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 20202021 2022 202333.9-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05101520253035404522/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12%02468101221/11 22/02 22/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05010015020025030022/08 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12%010203040506070809010021/03 21/07 21/11 22/03 22/07 22/11 23/03 23/07 23/11 2024 03 04 P.15 40%41 SMM Wind 42 Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 492021 2022 2023 2024-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%21/07 21/11 22/03 22/07 22/11 23/03 23/07 23/11%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%11/02 12/07 13/12 15/05 16/10 18/03 19/08 21/01 22/06 23/11%2024 03 04 P.16 3.2 SHFE+LME+COMEX 145.1 13.26 9.3 LME 2.9 COMEX 1.07 801/3 373/6/16 7 03/1 07/20 02/3.2 6 0.2%2.8 43 44 Wind Wind 45 46 Wind Wind 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5000.00.51.01.52.02.53.019/05 20/05 21/05 22/05 23/05SHFE/LME/010020030040050060005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50019/04 20/02 20/12 21/10 22/08 23/06/FOB:/501001502002503003504001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522020 2021 20222023 202405010015020025018/02 18/11 19/08 20/05 21/02 21/11 22/08 23/05 24/02SHFE COMEX LME 2024 03 04 P.17 47 48 Wind Wind 49&50 Wind Wind 51 52 IAI IAI-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-100001000200050001000015000200002500019/01 20/01 21/01 22/01 23/01 24/01/SHFE/17.60510152025301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 20212022 20234203.8 93.8%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%370038003900400041004200430044004500460022/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0500100015002000250030003500400045002013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 YOY(%)585.8526.5577.2562.8585.1569.9586.14504704905105305505705906101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023338.7331.5346337.73472602803003203403601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 03 04 P.18 53&54&IAI IAI 55 56 Wind Wind 57 58 Wind Wind 2322.422.922.323202530351 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 202334.332.934.032.733.730323436381 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 202355606570751 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 20233540455055601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023101520253035404550551 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 20212022 2023681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 03 04 P.19 59/60 Wind Wind 61 62 Wind Wind 100001200014000160001800020000220002400018/07 19/04 20/01 20/10 21/07 22/04 23/01 23/10-100001000200030004000500060007000800090001000010,00014,00018,00022,00026,00018/08 19/02 19/08 20/02 20/08 21/02 21/08 22/02 22/08 23/02 23/08 24/02/SHFE/-4000-2000020004000600080001000010,00014,00018,00022,00026,00018/08 19/02 19/08 20/02 20/08 21/02 21/08 22/02 22/08 23/02 23/08 24/02/SHFE/-4000-20000200040006000800010,00014,00018,00022,00026,00018/08 19/02 19/08 20/02 20/08 21/02 21/08 22/02 22/08 23/02 23/08 24/02/SHFE/2024 03 04 P.20 3.3 SHFE 1.1%13.71/3.6%2.88/2.7%960/0.2 3.29/0.15-0.83/63 64 Wind Wind 65 66/Wind Wind 051015202530012345619/05 20/01 20/09 21/05 22/01 22/09 23/05 24/01LME/SHFE/05101520253019/05 20/02 20/11 21/08 22/05 23/02 23/11LME 镍库存 SHFE 镍库存0200400600800100012001400160018000123456719/05 19/12 20/07 21/02 21/09 22/04 22/11 23/06 24/01/7-10%/01234567-7-6-5-4-3-2-101222/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02 2024 03 04 P.21 4.1 6.2%10.3/5.6%9.4/18.3%11.9/4.0%1040/33.3%2800/2/115/38 33%-51%/-43%Q2 6.1%9.6/6.2%10.3/5.6%9.4/18.3%11.9/1.2-1.6/5.1/5.7/4.0%1040/CIF 9.5/33.3%2800/11.5/11.3%9575 42.6%38.9%820 3.3 17.5%4228 36.8%31.3%2225 2.2 LFP 2.0%4.2/LFP 12.7%4.0/172.6-488.9/NCM523 1.6%13.1/NCM622 1.6%12.5/NCM811 2.2%16.0/-11.9/LFP 10.7%3.2 32.9%29.7%2112 3.5 13.2%1.2 40.0%35.3%300 0.9 6-7 4-5 0.48/Wh 0.43/Wh 5 2/115/38 33%-57%/-43%-51%/-43%2 2 3 3 2024 03 04 P.22 67 68 69 70/71/72/01020304050607022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02/CIF SC6 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02/-15-10-50510152001020304050607022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02-4-2024681012141601020304050607022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02-10-5051015202501020304050607022/05 22/08 22/11 23/02 23/05 23/08 23/11 24/02 2024 03 04 P.23 73 74 iFind iFind 75 76%77 78%-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50010203040506070809020/09 21/03 21/09 22/03 22/09 23/03 23/09/-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50010203040506070809020/09 21/03 21/09 22/03 22/09 23/03 23/09/,/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 20222023 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 20222023 202401,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 20222023 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2021 20222023 2024 2024 03 04 P.24 79 80 81 82%iFind iFind 83 GWh 84%iFind 2024 1 2023 ifind iFind iFind 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 202405,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 20240%20%40%60%80%100%120%02040608010012023/02 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/10 23/12 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%21/05 21/11 22/05 22/11 23/05 23/11-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010203040506070809010023/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11 24/01+yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%23/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11 24/01 2024 03 04 P.25 85 86%87 88%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 20240%20%40%60%80%100%120%1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 202402,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 20240%20%40%60%80%100%1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522021 2022 2023 2024 2024 03 04 P.26 4.2 2.0%20.6/3.25/MB 13.50/0.7%7.10/0.4%52.6%89 90 MB 91 92/01020304050607021/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/01/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%05101520253035404521/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/01%MB 99.3%/(10)(5)051015202521/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/01MB/MB/(5)(3)(1)1357911131521/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/01-2024 03 04 P.27 4.3 1+37.06 8.63 9.9 3.8 3.8 2.3 18.53 0.53 2)490/16195/2550/1866/0.2%0.45/kWh 0.37/kWh 0.55/kWh 0.6/kWh 0.48/kWh 14,745/0.72%14944.89/0.09%-199.89/93.37/3)3 7.97 0.12 4 77%4 4.05 0.10 4.6 0.02 26.7 3,680 3 3 93 94 421#13,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00022/04 22/08 22/12 23/04 23/08 23/12内蒙(元/吨)东北 货天 津港(元/吨)新疆货天 津港(元/吨)昆明港(元/吨)四川货黄 埔港(元/吨)2024 03 04 P.28 95 96 553#97 441#98 3303#99 411#100&2024 03 04 P.29 101 102 103 104 105 106 2024 03 04 P.30 107&108&109:TREO 92%/110&92%/Wind 26%0.65%3.5%Wind 111/112/Wind Wind 05101520253035404521/02 21/07 21/12 22/05 22/10 23/03 23/08 24/01:T R EO 9 2%:TR E O 9 2%051015202521/01 21/06 21/11 22/04 22/09 23/02 23/07 23/12 92%92%02040608010012014016021/02 21/07 21/12 22/05 22/10 23/03 23/08 24/01 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00021/02 21/07 21/12 22/05 22/10 23/03 23/08 24/01 2024 03 04 P.31 113/114/Wind Wind 115 116 117 118 05001,0001,5002,0002,50021/02 21/07 21/12 22/05 22/10 23/03 23/08 24/01 05010015020025030035040045021/02 21/07 21/12 22/05 22/10 23/03 23/08 24/01 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 202305,00010,00015,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 202301,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 202301,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122020 2021 2022 2023 2024 03 04 P.32 2024 03 04 P.33,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033