20240307_海通证券_海外煤炭行业：印度—能源和钢铁消费有望带动煤炭需求持续增长_32页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2024 03 07 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-14.18%-6.14%1.91%9.95%18.00%26.05%2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Table_ReportInfo 24 2024.03.03+2024.02.25 2024.02.18 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)58067998 Email:S0850517120001:Tel:(021)23185633 Email:S0850520090001:Tel:(021)23183818 Email:S0850515120001:Tel:(021)23185628 Email:Table_Summary 2020 44%2000 2000 33%2020 44%1111 147 10%90%96%4.2%FY23 8.93 14.8%FY24 10.12 13.3%FY30 15 1 90%FY23 CIL/SCCL 7.03/0.67+12.9%/+3.3%78.7%/7.5%1.23+35.6%2 FY23/8.58/0.35 96%3 10/2020 4 FY18 22.5 FY23/0.56/1.82-1.9%/+19.9%1 70%FY30 80GW 75%23 11 214GW FY31 55-60GW 80GW FY22/23/24H1+11.4%/8%/7.4%2 2017 FY2031 3 2017 FY2031 3-BF-BOF 60%-65%/1.211.7 40005600 2021 2325 FY2025 6100 1 2 2 1.6 1.1.7 1.2.8 1.3.11 1.3.1.11 1.3.2.13 1.3.3.15 1.4.15 2.15 2.1.15 2.2.17 2.3.18 2.4.19 2.5.20 3.21 3.1.21 3.2.24 3.3.26 3.3.1.26 3.3.2.27 4.30 5.31 1ZDWvMnQnOpOsMoNtOrOpO6M9RaQpNpPtRtPlOqQpMkPoOxP8OnNuMwMtQmNNZmOtQ 3 1 2019.6 2 2040 STEPS.6 3 STEPS.6 4 Mtoe.6 5.7 6 2000-2019.7 7.9 8.11 9 PLI.11 10.12 11 NCI.14 12 NCI.14 13 NCI/.14 14 RP/.14 15 2023 mm 9.15 16 2023%DEP 9.15 17 bp.16 18.16 19.16 20.16 21.17 22.17 23.17 24.17 25.18 26.18 27.18 28.18 29 2010-2018.19 30 2019.19 4 31 CIL.20 32 CIL.20 33 YOY.20 34 YOY.20 35 2017.21 36 2022.21 37 EJ.21 38.21 39.22 40 FY23.22 41 YOY.22 42 YOY.22 43.23 44.23 45.23 46.23 47 YOY.23 48 YOY.23 49 MW.24 50.24 51 MW.24 52 MW.24 53 FY20-23 TWh.25 54 FY23.25 55.25 56 2020&2030 LCOE.25 57 2017.26 58.27 59 1.4.27 60.28 61.28 62.30 63.30 5 1 2018.8 2 PMP.10 3 MSIPS.10 4 2020%.11 5.12 6.13 7 BCCL 2023 4 1.14 8 FY2031.26 9.27 10 2021.29 11 2021.29 12.31 13.31 6 1.2030 2021 STEPS 2030 2019-2040 25%1 2019 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 2 2040 STEPS IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 2019-2040 30%10%2021 STEPS 2019-2040 20%30%2019 10%40%3 STEPS IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 4 Mtoe EIA 7 1.1 2000 2000 33%2020 44%2021 1990 80%2000 2000-2019 2020 2000 33%44%2000 3.5 40%2019 70%18%10%5 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 6 2000-2019 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 1/3 20%8 1 2018 GDP toe kWh 192.7 233.8 12159 0.6 1615 Delhi 16.4 0.4 19970 0.6 1548 Haryana 8.8 16.5 12900 0.8 2082 Telangana 13.6 21.4 11170 0.5 1896 Karnataka 23.6 37.5 11520 0.6 1396 Kerala 15.9 17.5 11150 0.5 757 Gujarat 25.7 34.7 10790 1.1 2378 Uttarakhand 3.0 7.0 10860 0.5 1467 Maharashtra 50.8 61.6 10480 0.5 1424 Tamil Nadu 34.9 37.2 10590 0.5 1866 84.0 220.6 6540 0.5 1129 Punjab 10.4 17.3 8470 0.6 2046 Andhra Pradesh 14.6 35.0 8260 0.5 1480 Rajasthan 17.0 51.5 6040 0.5 1282 West Bengal 29.1 62.2 5980 0.4 703 Chhattisgarh 5.9 19.6 5290 1.0 1961 Odisha 7.0 35.0 5200 1.0 1628 88.7 352.1 3930 0.3 647 Madhya Pradesh 20.1 52.6 4970 0.4 1084 Assam 4.4 26.8 4490 0.3 341 Jharkhand 7.9 25.1 4150 0.6 938 Uttar Pradesh 44.5 155.3 3640 0.3 606 Bihar 11.8 92.3 2400 0.2 311 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 1.2 NDC 2030 40%2030 2005 33-35%40%2030 450GW 15%30%20%2030 2019 PMO public sector undertakings PSU 28 State Electricity Regulatory Commissions SERC Forum of Regulators FOR 9 7 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 2014 9 2014 Make in India 25 2025 GDP 25%2020 2015 8 Phased Manufacturing Programme PMP FY2017 PMP 10%15%20%10 2 PMP 2016-17(i)Charger/Adapter 20%Budget 2020-21(ii)Battery Pack,(iii)Wired Headset 15%2017-18(iv)Mechanics,(v)Die Cut Parts,(vi)Microphone and Receiver,(vii)Key Pad,(viii)USB Cable 15%2018-19(ix)Printed Circuit Board Assembly(PCBA)20%2020 4 1(x)Camera Module,(xi)Connectors 10%2019-20(xii)Display Assembly,(xiii)Touch Panel/Cover Glass Assembly 10%2020 10 1(xiv)Vibrator Motor/Ringer 10%2020 4 1 2015 8 2012 7 Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme MSIPS 2015 7 15 Electronics System Design and Manufacturing ESDM 2017 1 2018 12 31 3 MSIPS 1(SEZ)20%25%2 3 5 4 ESDM 44/5/1 500 6/2020 PLI 19.7 260 14 2021 100 2023 9 1.8 11 8 9 PLI 1.3 1.3.1 1111 147 2023 1111 10.3%1060 95%147 37 4 2020%/1 218938 30003 248941 23.2%-2 71719 90447 162166 15.1%407 3 73719 76508 150227 14.0%315 4 135069 8128 143197 13.3%37 5 105979 5073 111052 10.3%147 6-35900 35900 3.3%334 7 23141 11728 34869 3.2%62 8 32039 2336 34375 3.2%-9 22530 5865 28395 2.6%282 10 25605-25605 2.4%226 bp 10%-2022 1/1871/3614 351 9.7%12 5 Odisha 48572.58 34080.42 5451.6 88104.6 Jharkhand 53245.02 28259.67 5155.41 86660.1 Chhattisgarh 32053.42 40701.35 1436.99 74191.76 West Bengal 17233.88 12858.84 3778.53 33871.25 Madhya Pradesh 14051.66 12722.97 4142.1 30916.73 Telangana 11256.78 8344.35 3433.07 23034.2 Maharashtra 7983.64 3390.48 1846.59 13220.71 Bihar 309.53 4079.69 47.96 4437.18 Andhra Pradesh 920.96 2442.74 778.17 4141.87 Uttar Pradesh 884.04 177.76 0 1061.8 Meghalaya 89.04 16.51 470.93 576.48 Assam 464.78 57.21 3.02 525.01 Nagaland 8.76 21.83 447.72 478.31 Sikkim 0 58.25 42.98 101.23 Arunachal Pradesh 31.23 40.11 18.89 90.23 187105.32 147252.18 27053.96 361411.46 10 Maps of India 15%53.18 15%Jharia 25%-45%10%-20%13 6/West Bengal Jharkhand Bihar Madhya Pradesh Assam 0 0 5318 0 0 5318 550 25342 0 2187 0 28080 789 748 170 0 0.39 1708 1339 26090 5488 2187 0.39 35105 2015 2020 20 90 2015 2020 3 200 2023 12 20 26 7 19 1.3.2 FSA FSA NCI RP 1 National Coal Index NCI 2 Representative Prices RP Kolkata Notified Prices Auction Prices Import Prices CIL WCL SCCL CIL CIL SCCL MSTC Junction DGCIS 14 11 NCI 12 NCI top bottom NCI BCCL CCL NCI top grade STI STII bottom grade WI-WIV BCCL CCL BCCL 2023 4 1 ST I 75.79/20-21%direct feed 75.14/W-VI 30.36/7 BCCL 2023 4 1 Rs./HVMC Rs./Rs./ST I 6231 ST-II 5992 Direct Feed 6178 W-I 5347 W-1 4492 W-1 4238 W-II 4472 W-II 4235 W-II 3558 W-lII 3564 W-lII 3354 W-lII 2771 W-IV 3368 W-IV 3187 W-IV 3547 W-V 2712 W-V 2586 W-V 2274 W-VI 2496 W-VI 2400 W-VI 1989 13 NCI/14 RP/15 1.3.3 GST 400/5.5/2010 NCEEF 2017 1.4 6 1 10 15 75%6 1 10 15 850 75%15 2023 mm 9 16 2023%DEP 9 2.2.1 10%4.2%2023 2022 9.11+12.1%10.3%02-22/12-22 CAGR 4.8%/4.2%FY23/FY24 14.8%/13.3%4 1 3 31 FY23 8.93 14.8%FY24 23 4 1-24 3 31 10.12 13.3%23 4-9 4.28 12.1%16 17 bp bp 18 FY24 11.5/+30%/22%2020-2024FY FY24 11.5/9.65/1.84 FY20-23/+30%/+22%2024FY 11.5 200 19FY 5800 24FY 1.84 19 20 11-3 17 11-3 2023 3 1.08 9 6727 FY30 15 2030FY 15 2023 7 77%21 22 2.2 90%FY23 8.93 14.8%CIL SCCL 7.03 0.67+12.9%+3.3%78.7%7.5%1.23+35.6%15 2014 15-22 4009 12272 CAGR 17.3%6.3%13.7%23 24 1/3 GEM 18 1/3 4.33 Jharkhand Odisha 40%CREA 15 CIL CCL 1.8 ECL 0.9 Talabira Pachhwara 1%70%70%25 GEM 26 GEM 2.3 FY23/8.58/0.35 96%30%22-23/8.58/0.35+15.2%/+5%96.1%/3.9%66%27 28 19 10/60%40%2020 2020 500 29 2010-2018 30 2019 2.4 FY23 FY20 2 CIL FY23 1862 1650 113%FY21-23 1577 FY18-20 764 CIL FY23/630/244/515 21%/13%/25%CIL CAGR 3%20 31 CIL 32 CIL 2.5 2015 2015 18GW 8%2025 FY18 22.5 FY23/0.56/1.82-1.9%/+19.9%FY18 22.5 FY23 2.38+13.9%/0.56/1.82-1.9%/+19.9%33 YOY Mccloskey 34 YOY Mccloskey FY13-23 CAGR 4.7%CAGR 1.7%FY23 5605-1.9%Mccloskey FY24 7 2023 4-7 2682 18.6%21 Mccloskey 2017 80%/5.9%/5.2%/4.7%2022 831+128%17 3.5%22 12.1%17 77.7%22 64.2%35 2017 Mccloskey 36 2022 Mccloskey 3.3.1 22 CAGR 3.6%EIA 2021 8.96 6.9%2018 2002-2011 2012-2021 CAGR 4.6%3.6%CAGR 7.2%2.7%2023 2022 20.09EJ 4.1%4%37 EJ bp 38 EIA 22 70%84%2023 2022 11.62 9%74%2.31 FY23 7.34 84.1%9.1%/4611/944/827 5.3%/1.1%/0.9%+8.1%/+45.7%/+12.8%39 bp 40 FY23 FY22/23/24H1+11.4%/8%/7.4%FY24H1 FY22/23/24H1 1094/1182/637 TWh+11.4%/8%/7.4%7.01/7.87/4.09+17.9%/12.3%/5.2%FY24H1 3.81+7.5%2772-19%41 YOY Mccloskey 42 YOY Mccloskey 14.5 24 2030 FY23 2024 1 4 14.5 24 23 43 44 45 46 FY30 1.211.7 FY22/23/24H1 1.2/1.26/0.7+15%/5%/15%2050/2272/1281+13.6%/10.9%/15.6%7166/7717/3510+20.8%/+7.7%/-5.7%2022 Dalmia Bharat Ultratech Adani 225Mtpa 30 2017 FY30 3 22 1.25/25%/35%1.211.7 47 YOY Mccloskey 48 YOY Mccloskey 24 3.2 29 5 2013 477GW 214GW 45%2019 2013 2023 11 477GW/214.3/41.7/0.9/7.5/67.2/138.4 GW 19 3 200.7 GW 23 11 214.3 GW 56.4%45%19 3 77.6 GW 23 11 138.4 GW 21.8%29%23 11/102.2/218.6/105.5GW 24%/51.3%/24.7%49 MW FY24*23 11 50 FY24*23 11 51 MW FY24*23 11 52 MW FY24*23 11 25 75%FY23 1.21 74.3%PLF FY10 77.5%FY22 58.9%FY23 64.2%/PLF FY10 10.8/9.1/27.3pct 2010 CAGR 5.5%2010-2023FY 0.81 1.62 CAGR 5.5%FY17 FY23 FY17 8 21 9.11GW 4%53 FY20-23 TWh 54 FY23 23 11 55-60GW 80GW 2023 11 2031-32 80GW 55-60GW 27GW LCOE+LCOE 25%55 IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 56 2020&2030 LCOE IEA India Energy Outlook 2021 26 3.3 2017 FY2031 3 2.55 2.3 65%2017 5 2017 FY2031 3 2.55 2.3 85%65%3.3.1 FY2031 3 50%60%-65%2017 FY2031 3-BF-BOF 60%-65%35%-40%EAF FY2031 8000 1.14 2021 FY2031 1.81 57 2017 8 FY2031 FY2031 3/2.55/2.3/8000/1700 158 kg/60%-65%7.5%GDP 27 9 FY16 FY31 50.5 138 18 50 8.2 28 2.4 8 2.4 6 81.5 230 61 158 2021 18%-49%18%9%25%35%Mission Coking Coal 3.3.2 1.211.7 40005600 1.39/1800 3100 2021 1.81 1.61 10-11%1 25%1.21 4000 33%2 35%1.7 5600 33%CIL Tata SAIL FY2031 1.39 2030FY 1.39 1800 3100 58 59 1.4 28 FY2025 6100/1.81 6000/10900 FY2025 6100 1 1.21 6100 6000 2 1.7 6100 1.09 60 61 2021 2325 350 50%35-50%2021 95%2021 3573 2325 CIL SAIL FY2025 3800 6100 35%1 29 10 2021 1 CIL（BCCL）Bhojudih West Bengal 1962 1.70 0.28 2 CIL（BCCL）Moonidih Jharkhand 1983 1.60 0.70 3 CIL（BCCL）Mohuda Jharkhand 1989 0.63 0.10 4 CIL（BCCL）Dugda-II Jharkhand 1969 2.00 0.14 5 CIL（BCCL）Madhuban Jharkhand 1998 2.50 0.08 6 CIL（BCCL）Dahibari Jharkhand 2018 1.60 1.60 7 CIL（BCCL）Patherdih I Jharkhand 2020 5.00 5.00 8 CIL（CCL）Kathara Jharkhand 1969 3.00 0.80 9 CIL（CCL）Sawang Jharkhand 1970 0.75 0.20 10 CIL（CCL）Rajrappa Jharkhand 1987 3.00 1.70 11 CIL（CCL）Kedla Jharkhand 1997 2.60 1.30 24.38 11.90 12 SAIL Chasnala Jharkhand 1969 2.00 2.00 13 Tata Steel W Bokaro II Jharkhand 1984 2.50 2.50 14 Tata Steel W Bokaro III Jharkhand 1994 3.85 3.85 15 Tata Steel Jamadoba Jharkhand 1957 2.00 2.00 16 Tata Steel Bhelatand Jharkhand 1995 1.00 1.00 11.35 11.35 35.73 23.25 11 2021 1 Madhuban（BCCL）Block-II Area,Dhanbad,Jharia Coalfield 5.00 2021 2 Patherdih II（BCCL）Patherdih,Jharia Coalfield,Dhanbad 2.50 2022 3 Bhojudih（BCCL）Purulia District,West Bengal 2.00 2022 4 Moonidih（BCCL）Moonidih Project,Jharia Coalfield,Dhanbad,Jharkhand 2.50 2023 5 New Kathara（CCL）Kathara Area,East Bokaro Coalfield,Jharkhand 3.00 2022 6 Basantpur-Tapin（CCL）Hazaribagh Area,West Bokaro Coalfield,Jharkhand 4.00 2022 7 New Rajrappa（CCL）Rajrappa Area,Ramgarh Coalfield,Jharkhand 3.00 2024 8 Karo（CCL）B&K Area,East Bokaro Coalfield,Jharkhand 5.00 2024 9 Topa（CCL）Kuju Area,West Bokaro Coalfield,Jharkhand 3.00 2024 CIL 30.00 10 SAIL Tasra 4.00 11 Tata Steel Washery III,West Bokaro 0.65 12 Tata Steel Bhelatand Washery,Jharia 0.50 13 JSPL Total Angul,Odisha 2.00 37.15 CAGR 5.4%2017 1 2012-2022 CAGR 5.4%2017 1 14%22 1.25+5.5%2000 1.29 30 1/3 1/9 2021 76kg 666.5kg 8.8 2023 62 wind 63 wind 4.1 2 31 12 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY30E FY30E FY30E 979 931 987 1131 1208 1289 1609 1702 1797 YOY-5.0%6.1%14.5%6.8%6.7%4.5%7.1%6.9%731 716 778 893 964 1032 1300 1400 1500 YOY-2.1%8.7%14.8%8.0%7.0%5%6%8%248 215 209 238 244 257 309 302 297 YOY-13.5%-2.5%13.6%2.5%5.4%3.8%4.3%3.0%25.4%23.1%21.2%21.0%20.2%19.9%19.2%17.7%16.5%956 906 1029 1115 1208 1289 1609 1702 1797 YOY-5.2%13.5%8.4%8.3%6.7%4.5%7.1%6.9%635 595 701 787 850 893 1086 1139 1195 YOY-6.3%17.9%12.3%8.0%5.0%4%5%6%116 112 128 136 143 155 223 242 263 YOY-3.3%14.7%5.9%5.3%7.9%7.6%9.4%11.2%20 18 20 23 25 27 33 33 33 YOY-7.7%13.6%10.9%12.0%6.0%3.9%3.9%3.9%67 59 72 77 85 92 120 130 140 YOY-10.8%20.8%7.7%10.0%8.0%5.5%8.9%8.8%138 140 128 115 130 150 180 190 200 YOY 1.3%-9.0%-9.9%4.2%4.9%3.7%4.8%5.9%Mccloskey 13 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY30E FY30E FY30E 52.9 44.8 51.7 60.8 66.8 72.2 140 140 140 YOY-15.4%15.4%17.5%10.0%8.0%14.2%14.2%14.2%11.0 9.6 10.7 14.0 16.7 21.7 70.0 112.0 140.0 48%46%44%38%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%5.3 4.4 4.7 5.3 6.7 8.7 28.0 44.8 56.0 61.0 61.2 68.7 69.1 76.0 82.1 98.0 112.7 133.0 YOY 0.4%12.2%0.7%10.0%8.0%3.6%6.5%10.1%66.2 65.6 73.4 74.4 82.7 90.8 126.0 157.5 189.0 92.1%93.3%93.6%92.9%91.9%90.5%77.8%71.6%70.4%67.3 65.7 75.6 79.3 88.9 94.2 126.0 157.5 189.0-1.1-0.1-2.2-4.9-6.2-3.4 Mccloskey 5.32 Table_Analysts/Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%