20240408_华安证券_有色金属行业：钨矿端供应收紧一体化布局优势显著_21页.pdf

Table_IndNameRptType 行业研 究/深 度报 告 Table_IndRank 2024-04-08 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010522080002 S0010523120003 S0010122060011 Table_Report 1.2024-03-31 2.2024-03-24 3.2024-03-17 主要观 点：Table_Summary USGS 2022 380 8 1 45%30%2-40%-29%-18%-6%5%16%4/23 7/23 10/23 1/24有色金属 沪深300Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/21 证券研究报告 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.8 1.3.11 2.16 2.1.16 2.2.17 2.3.18 2.4.19.20 1ZAZvMtOpMpOpRtQsPqPoP7N8Q9PnPpPmOtPiNqQrNiNoOvN6MnMpMvPsPnPwMsPnPTable_CompanyRptType 3/21 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7 2022.7 8.7 9.8 10%.8 11.8 12%.9 13%.9 14 CR4.9 15 2019 100.9 16.10 17.11 18%.11 19.11 20 2018.12 21 2022.12 22 2018-2023.12 23.12 24.13 25.13 26 2019-2022.14 27/.14 28 GW.14 29.15 30.15 31 2018-2023.16 32 2018-2023.16 33 2018-2023.16 34 2023.16 35 2022.16 36 2017-2022.17 37 2017-2022.17 38 2017-2022.17 39 2022.17 40 2018-2023.18 41 2018-2023.18 Table_CompanyRptType 4/21 42 2017-2022.18 43 2022.18 44 2017-2022.19 45 2017-2022.19 46 2017-2022.19 47 2022.19 y7+Xen8mGUZCfVIwD55hQsiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfY01ZVUVqaUJ4HleK163pKE Table_CompanyRptType 5/21 1 1 1.1-Northern Dancer 1/2 30 35%16%41%Table_CompanyRptType 6/21 2 Edison Research World Tungsten Report USGS USGS 2022 380 47.4%10.5%2.6%1.5%37.55%36.14%11.64%2022 10.86wt 85.33%3 4 USGS USGS 8 USGS 2022 8.4 7.1 84.5%380050100150200250300350400 中国47.37%俄罗斯10.53%越南2.63%西班牙1.47%奥地利0.26%葡萄牙0.08%其他37.66%Table_CompanyRptType 7/21 5 6 USGS USGS 7 2022 8 USGS USGS 1999 2002 2023 11.1 2000 2019 WO3 65%10.5 14.54 4.04-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 yoy-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 yoy 中国84.52%越南5.71%俄罗斯2.74%玻利维亚1.67%卢旺达1.31%奥地利1.07%西班牙0.83%葡萄牙0.60%其他1.55%0%20%40%60%80%100%19951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021中 国 储 量占比 中 国 产 量占比Table_CompanyRptType 8/21 9 10%11 1.2(68.7%20.9%10.4%)2004 0.42%2017 0.28%100000105000 105000108000 10900011100062000-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000 yoy 江西21%湖南14%河南6%云南4%广东3%广西2%福建2%其他48%13.214.5413.8613.5512.7311.510.0010.50 10.5010.80 10.9011.10-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-yoy Table_CompanyRptType 9/21 12%13%2019 201 1000t 20 4 26.68%2019 100 12 14 CR4 15 2019 100 Tungsten West Ltd.Hermerdon 10 060wt 4400t WO3 0.14%12603wt 1wt WO3 0.23%Almonty Industries Inc.Sangdong Mine 3600 t WO3 0.41%King Island Sheelite Dolphin 3000 t WO3 0.73%,68.70%,20.90%,10.40%0.42%0.28%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%16.24%19.12%18.60%17.71%22.31%21.85%21.67%25.14%22.74%20.78%28.48%26.68%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019CR4%Table_CompanyRptType 10/21 WO3 55%6000 1810.15 WO3 0.442%3240 13/WO3 0.69%3400 30 1617t 102t 65%35%ITIA 2019 3.04wt 2.8 wt 54.7%2015-2019 14.1wt 50.9%2019 7300 t 42.9%6450t 48.9%Sandvik 80%50%90%16 ITIA 2019 4.73wt 1.1 wt 23%35%1 t 2 t WO3 65%600t 1 19 1 t 1.1 1.2 t 7 20 1.0 1.5 Table_CompanyRptType 11/21 1.3 ITIA 2019 48%/16%/14%/8%86%2019 9.8 4.73wt 2015 5 17 18%ITIA 19 AMR ITIA/2022 58%415004350047000 47800 4730096930 97740105210106900980000200004000060000800001000001200002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 435004700047800473004750053000 53000-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%40,00042,00044,00046,00048,00050,00052,00054,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoyTable_CompanyRptType 12/21 20 2018 21 2022 AMR ITIA 22 2018-2023 1 45%30%5,000 45%30%23 32%14%13%10%9%8%7%6%1%/硬质合金,58%钨材,20.60%钨特钢,17.17%钨化工,4.23%01000020000300004000050000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Table_CompanyRptType 13/21 24 2022 464 338 72.8%2019 19.5 Sandvik IMC Industrial Group 25 2022 41.24 2019 3.4 2022 2.1 38%2019 3.37 2022 2.78 137.4160.6204.3289243.3330400340330345312321.53884213934214774640100200300400500600 Table_CompanyRptType 14/21 26 2019-2022 2 2023 60891 2016-2023 CAGR 34.3%2023 21630 499GW CPIA 2025 386GW 200GW 27/28 GW 774213025177462043025430306563920460891345453064426301148205493874121630010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7685.798.6124.6182288.749901002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GW Table_CompanyRptType 15/21 29 88 200 600 1000 2023 868 760 30 170 170 15040 30 302.71 2.59 2.35270 270 270-2.9-8.6200 200 200-2.1-6.490 90 90-1-2.90.46 0.46 0.46728 281 1 Table_CompanyRptType 16/21 2 2.1 1997 2023 482.23 18.25%15.99 10.57%165.85/172.29/54.71+26.03%/-40.06%/-10.89%42.07%/43.71%/13.88%31 2018-2023 32 2018-2023 Wind Wind 33 2018-2023 34 2023 Wind Wind 2022 APT 24036 14298 505 300 4877 6602 35 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%05001,0001,5002,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 电池材料,43.71%钨钼业务42.07%稀土产品,13.88%房地产业务,0.34%Table_CompanyRptType 17/21 2.2 1993 2022 130.80 8.16%5.35 1.32%35.24 33.18 23.53 17.59 21.25 18.04%0.27%21.57%16.76%20.03%26.94%25.37%17.99%13.45%16.25%2022 1.3 14000 36 2017-2022 37 2017-2022 Wind Wind 38 2017-2022 39 2022 Wind Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 硬质合金,26.94%刀片及刀具,25.37%粉末制品,17.99%难熔金属,13.45%贸易及装备,16.25%Table_CompanyRptType 18/21 2.3 APT 2023 34.22 6.85%1.47 27.64%2022 11.02 9.48 3.48 0.50 3.74 32.31%18.72%11.54%26.38%584.72%34.40%29.61%10.87%1.55%0.12%9.46 1.76 1.28 2022 5276.47 15622.74 40 2018-2023 41 2018-2023 Wind Wind 42 2017-2022 43 2022 Wind Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-800%-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%-400-300-200-10001002003002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 碳化钨粉,34.40%钨粉,29.61%合金,10.87%仲钨酸铵,1.55%氧化钨,0.12%Table_CompanyRptType 19/21 2.4 1997 2022 16.74 9.78%-0.41-266.71%13.02 33.18 2.25 0.26 0.93+5.75%+13.81%-10.23%+174.35%77.77%13.44%1.56%5.56%2022 APT 4008.85 160.85 5861.76 5756.90 7704.65 785.51 44 2017-2022 45 2017-2022 Wind Wind 46 2017-2022 47 2022 Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-300%-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%-60-40-200204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 APT 硬质合金,13.44%粉末制品,77.77%合金工具,1.56%氧化钨,5.56%其他,1.67%Table_CompanyRptType 20/21 1 2 3 Table_CompanyRptType 21/21 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%