20240403_招商证券_证券行业2023年年报综述：政策积极态度延续市场生态改善行业温和增长可期_15页.pdf

|2024 04 03 2023/2023 22-2%-4%2024 724 A 11.5%5.2%ROE 2023 22 3737-2%1020-4%22 ROE 5.23%-0.12 pct 4.10 2022 1.02/34%/25%/13%/11%/11%+12/-4/0/-4/-4 pct 1 393+1%ETF 2 751-12%3 343-25%IPO 1 1040+51%2 321-25%2024 4431+5%1693+8%ROE 5.48%0.09pct V%86 1.7 4360.0 5.6 4070.2 5.9%1m 6m 12m-3.5-12.1-8.9-4.7-9.2 2.7 1 202403312024-03-31 2 20240324 2024-03-24 3 2024 2 2024-03-20 S1090516020001-30-20-1001020Apr-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24(%)非银行金融 沪深300 2.3 1“”.3 2.4 1.4 2.5 3 ROE.5.6 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.10 5.11.12 1.12 2.13.14 1.14 2.14 1ZFUyRnQpMoPqOmPtOqPrQaQbPaQmOnNpNmQfQpPmQjMqQzRbRmNqMxNqQtQvPoPwP 3 1 7 24 8 18 10 31 ETF 3 9 A“”“”2023 300 3.7%11.4%19.4%5.23%1 2023 2 2023 wind wind 2023 9917-3.1%2023 IPO 3565-39%+5940-24%(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12 300%01234562023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12%4 3 2023 4 2023 wind wind 2 2024 4 2 A 43 22 22 1 22 3734-2%1020-4%-12%751-12%343-25%393+1%+22%1040+51%321-25%22 Q4 837-6%-2%129-37%-47%5 22 6 22 6000700080009000100001100012000130002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12 02004006008001000120014002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12IPO+-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%010002000300040005000600020192020202120222023-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0200400600800100012001400160020192020202120222023 pn6F/YHUuhi8jUoQeN5z2MiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfazXXb0ME8vG4IprvkTrS6i 5 wind wind 10%7 wind 2 22/34%/25%/13%/11%/11%/6%+12/-4/0/-4/-4/-1 pct 8 22 wind 3 ROE ROE ROE 2023 22 ROE 5.23%-0.12 pct 22 2023 4.10 2022 1.02-5%-15%-10%-2%-2%-8%-7%-1%0%2%0%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%4%405060708090 2022 2023 单位：万 元17%20%20%22%25%9%10%9%12%11%7%8%8%10%13%10%9%9%11%11%29%26%25%18%34%28%28%28%27%6%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 9 22 ROE 10 22 wind wind 1 9 2023 9917-3.1%2023 11384-23%2955-32%30%15%Wind 2023 168-11%22 751-12%Q4 173-12%-6%87-9%650-15%108-15%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE 3.23.43.63.84.04.24.42019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 11 12 wind wind 1 22 Q4 1 102-8%24 0%-6%16.9 1%15.5-2%89.2-14%2 68-11%17-6%5%7.2-8%8.6-8%58.3-14%3 60-16%13-23%-9%6.5-33%7.1-14%64.0-13%4 58-9%13-6%-7%7.9 2%9.0-8%38.3-12%5 56-6%12-9%-19%8.2 5%11.3-16%38.4-13%6 55-14%13-15%-7%4.3-24%8.0-14%57.3-15%7 55-14%13-8%-2%4.7-26%2.4-17%51.0-12%8 45-13%10-32%0%12.5 3%8.7-20%32.8-20%9 43-17%9-18%-9%2.0-29%6.5-26%36.4-19%10 38-18%10-8%6%2.5-29%7.4-16%38.3-17%11 33-9%8-9%0%2.5 7%3.0-21%28.9-10%12 30-20%7-6%-8%2.2-26%4.1-32%29.3-21%13 28-10%6-19%-9%2.2-14%5.9-21%15.0-10%14 28-16%6-15%-20%4.9-1%3.9-27%23.1-18%15 10-6%2-6%2%0.6 109%0.7-19%8.4-9%16 9-10%2-13%2%0.8 20%0.4-24%9.3-10%17 8-6%2-3%-9%2.4 25%5.6-10%18 8-16%2-26%-29%0.2-57%2.4-17%6.4-15%19 6-13%1-6%-6%0.0 6.9-14%20 5-16%1-6%0%0.2-32%0.0-74%5.7-16%21 5-6%1-8%-3%0.3-22%1.0 25%5.7-14%22 2-16%0-10%-8%0.0-44%0.0 35%1.8-16%22 751-12%173-12%-6%87-9%108-15%650-15%wind 2 IPO 7 24 IPO IPO 1469-47%-30%2398-56%-32%IPO 3565-39%5940-24%2023 23.4+15%22 2023 343-25%Q4 77-34%-8%20%6000700080009000100001100012000130002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12 050010001500200025002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12 8 13 IPO 14 wind wind 2 22 wind 3 2023 5.9-14%-3%2023 2.7-13%Wind 2023 43 2500 14 ETF ETF 2023 27.3-39%-24%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%100020003000400050006000700080009000IPO 2022 2023 15%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%100000120000140000160000180000200000220000240000260000 2022 2023 Q4 1 63-27%10-57%-28%2 48-19%9-34%-29%3 37-47%11-54%71%4 37-14%10-17%-7%5 34-18%4-3%-61%6 30-25%7-33%10%7 15-13%3-11%-29%8 14-23%4-28%44%9 13 33%2-14%-33%10 13-7%6 84%86%11 10-20%3 6%90%12 6-7%2-1%62%13 5-20%2 29%53%14 5 2%1 19%-56%15 2-60%0-88%-62%16 2-74%0-68%-17%17 2-20%0-41%251%18 2-17%0-65%-34%19 1-23%0 33%53%20 1-29%1 44%249%21 1-66%0-45%106%22 1-33%0-5%53%22 343-25%77-34%-8%9+6%16.0+5%9.7+17%22 2023 393+1%ETF 15 16 wind wind 3 22 Q4 1 98-10%25-14%1%2 77-14%17-25%-8%3 43 13%11-6%4%4 41 149%10 36%-6%5 20-23%4-30%-13%6 20 260%5 275%-9%7 19-15%5-14%-2%8 13 34%4 45%7%9 12-11%3-17%-11%10 10-33%3 12%44%11 10-22%2-26%-16%12 7-14%2-17%-7%13 5 1%2 13%48%14 5 4%1 21%-6%15 4 129%1 145%-29%16 2-11%1-39%-18%17 2-3%0-5%2%18 2-23%0 20%4%19 1 12%0 39%14%20 0 4%0-34%-20%21 0-11%0-20%-48%22 0-40%0-57%1%22 393 1%96-6%-3%wind 4 22 1 62.2%8178 16%20.13-7%2 28%3369 4%9.50 402%3 49%2849 29%-41.2%4889-6%20.11 14%4 54.5%6353-6%19.50-9%22.7%9527-2%33.82-12%-15%-10%-5%0%5%0200004000060000800001000001200001400002019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%1000001500002000002500003000002018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4()10 5 51%1026 11%4.17-9%27.8%5710-2%18.14-12%6 49%5337 5%15.11-12%45%5756 2%17.53-3%7 67.0%710 1%0.85-36%27.8%5710-2%18.14-12%8 100%484 14%0.30 30%9 35.4%4476-13%14.15-32%100%1665-13%4.91-41%10 55%640-1%0.89-16%25%1794 8%4.05-3%11 66.7%361 53%0.45 64%12 41%564 25%0.71 23%13 44.1%2149-3%6.36-22%14 51%458-14%1.76-28%15 49%546-4%0.39 2%16 59.3%78 77%-0.65 30%17 75.5%1015 21%0.30 0%18 60%1575-13%2.99-9%19 50%775 6%-20 54%836 12%1.74-18%wind 4 2.16 1.46 1.93 22 2023 3.54+12%+12%/+24%22 2023 1141+10%220%91%82%22 2023 1040+51%Q4 232+48%+32%3.1%+0.9 pct 22 2022 10 5 22 Q4 1 218 24%61 16%43%3.8%0.50%2.16 2 117 94%40 152%115%3.1%1.35%1.76 3 106 0%36 3%40%3.8%0.09%1.46 4 91 30%14-48%-45%2.6%0.31%2.70 5 90 77%20 100%3.5%1.64%1.80 6 77 37%18 154%57%4.1%0.42%2.35 11 7 68 51%18 719%130%3.4%0.81%1.96 8 67 32%20 266%151%2.6%0.57%2.08 9 36 182%8-41%224%1.9%1.01%1.93 10 28 9 980%7.5%8.27%1.61 11 25 129%6 786%3.0%1.64%1.57 12 24 26%0 2.6%0.46%1.83 13 17 54%2 383%-24%3.7%0.07%2.31 14 12 7%1-49%-37%3.5%-0.37%1.45 15 12 4 46%67%6.3%6.87%1.98 16 11 87%2-17%3.8%1.69%1.38 17 9 1807%2-2%137%3.0%2.82%2.09 18 9 46%2 81%-33%3.4%0.86%1.91 19 8 49%1 29%8%3.5%1.15%1.94 20 6 219%1 57%2.9%2.02%2.22 21 5-32 0.2%0.70%1.81 22 4 423%1 7742%2.2%1.91%1.40 22 1,040 51%232 48%32%3.1%0.9%1.94 wind 6 22/1 6,250 18%2,209 17%2,184 26%328-10%2 4,135 18%1,236 20%1,958 12%163 3%3 2,847 6%1,401 12%901 11%120-33%4 3,726 12%692 35%1,575 6%97 17%5 2,365-15%495 31%1,217-15%102 25%6 2,062 20%303 105%1,091 18%84 220%7 2,142 14%343 20%1,079 19%42 46%8 2,787 15%408 53%1,751 18%67 82%9 2,161 37%374 48%690 55%50 91%10 385 5%80 115%209-5%4 15%11 753-18%282 21%119-46%18 66%12 971 16%87 7%443 21%19 85%13 561 52%13-38%159 44%6 232%14 390 20%33 227%223 18%17 78%15 226 52%10-38%99 136%0-52%16 292 4%1 0%198-6%0-94%17 324 7%8-31%248 16%1 2338%18 276 7%8 64%183-2%1 232%19 243 12%8-35%197 24%0 na 20 199-15%7-38%148-17%0-1%21 2,213 6%1,242 22%357 18%23 54%22 135-26%8-24%93-31%0 364%22 35,441 12%9,246 24%15,120 12%1,141 10%wind 5 2023 1.65+7%22 1.01+8%2023 3493-9%2.76-13%22 3678-1%12 22 321-25%22 2023 1418+13%22 47 2022 29 32 10+91%+24%7 22 Q4 2022 1 42-19%8 103 13%912 8%227 12%0.3 1.5 2 41-34%8 160 17%684 1%368 13%31.9 16.7 3 40-31%8 176 16%1,187 11%622 98%-3.6-7.0 4 31-24%7 104 19%911 10%197 4%1.0-3.7 5 28-41%12 128 19%898 3%697-2%2.6-4.6 6 19-9%5 21 22%179 11%31-21%-0.8-0.8 7 18-14%4 33 1%368 0%79 461%3.3-2.4 8 18 8%4 43 6%211 8%54-37%10.3 8.3 9 17-19%4 32-5%332 7%102-17%5.4 5.3 10 17-28%2 84 18%564 7%139-45%-1.3 2.8 11 15 8%1 95 2%837 3%498 0%1.9 3.0 12 14-20%3 30 26%325 18%129 2038%-2.8 1.7 13 10-64%1 137 23%1,123 12%125-64%-4.1-4.9 14 4 394%1 5-18%15 19%42-1%-0.3-0.8 15 4 48%1 10 21%111 16%2 9%-0.4-0.6 16 4-7%1 11 16%105 15%13-22%0.1-0.9 17 4-14%1 11 0%79 12%31-3%-0.2 0.0 18 3 259%3 97-1%644 5%46-74%3.4 14.2 19 3-16%0 12 1%120 5%13 11%-0.1 0.2 20 1-4%0 7-5%76 8%10-11%0.6 1.5 21 1-33%-1 12 15%101 15%53 63%-0.3 0.0 22-13 30%-5 107 17%358 13%199-27%0.1-0.2 22 321-25%71 1,418 13%10,141 8%3,678-1%47 29 wind 1 3 15 4 724 ETF 13 2 2024 10%1.09+10%/1.86%1.73/A 3.8%1839 IPO 2105 5477 14.7 9.1 8%6.5 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 34%35%4%-22%-11%10%2,732,465 4,394,728 5,525,936 4,953,419 4,799,856 5,265,943 5,599 9,043 11,370 10,234 9,917 10,909 9,116 12,956 17,678 16,185 16,058 17,342 4,311 3,009 2,279 2,124 1,832 1,839 3,777 4,154 4,678 5,079 5,346 5,556 IPO 3,011 5,260 5,351 5,869 3,565 2,105 5,163 7,315 9,576 7,844 5,940 5,477 105,765 135,400 152,300 104,555 135,045 146,993 32,238 38,175 48,100 52,300 60,145 64,957 122,900 105,100 108,800 97,600 80,608 91,413 wind 2024 2024 4431+5%1693+8%ROE 5.48%0.09pct 1289+8%444-17%251+3%502-8%1376+17%9 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 829 1301 1557 1286 1190 1289 8%469 673 703 659 537 444-17%288 314 301 276 244 251 3%469 583 653 633 546 502-8%1226 1256 1357 608 1181 1376 17%324 359 452 487 526 568 8%3605 4485 5024 3950 4224 4431 5%1231 1575 1911 1423 1563 1693 8%ROE 6.30%7.28%7.83%5.31%5.39%5.48%0.09%wind 14 1 V 4431+5%1693+8%PB 1.21 1.14%0.68%3.92%2 15 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%“”