20240421_国泰君安_银行业板块2024年春季投资策略：拥抱红利投资大时代_23页.pdf

1 ZXDWvMmRsRoPsMtQrMqPmNbRaOaQnPqQpNtPlOnNmQeRsQnPaQpOoPwMmPzQNZoPtR2 2022 A 2022-4%2%17%A 15pct 9pct 20pct A GDP wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2021-01-04 2021-04-04 2021-07-04 2021-10-04 2022-01-04 2022-04-04 2022-07-04 2022-10-04 2023-01-04 2023-04-04 2023-07-04 2023-10-04 2024-01-04 2024-04-04 A A 3003-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2021-01-04 2021-04-04 2021-07-04 2021-10-04 2022-01-04 2022-04-04 2022-07-04 2022-10-04 2023-01-04 2023-04-04 2023-07-04 2023-10-04 2024-01-04 2024-04-04()A A 300()2022()A wind 2022()-6%-2%17%A 13pct 5pct 21pct 2021 2022/W050VtAQ8fzjAkZjJoZ1MiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZRwt5ucCBNH6LI6Lv2tpKM 4 a)b)a)ROE b)c)a)b)5 2021 2021 12 5.58%4.56%10 2.55pct 2023 2024 12 6.01%5.48%10 3.62pct 10 AAA 3.20pct 5300 5%226 A 12.6%4.5%304 A 13.8%2.03.04.05.06.07.08.02021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01 12()12 10Y 10Y_AAA 2023()2022 2024/4/19 wind A/10%18 1,977 0.59%7%-10%52 3,276 0.98%6%-7%51 12,480 3.72%5.5%-6%37 9,557 2.85%5%-5.5%68 14,872 4.44%4.5%-5%78 4,204 1.25%4%-4.5%109 12,599 3.76%413 58,965 17.59%50 17,120 5.11%6 5%()5.48%PB_LF 0.6x 现金 红利股价=分红率期初净资产当期净利润 分红率 估值。ROE ROE 10.91%11.78%30%5%PB_LF 0.65x 4.5%PB_LF 0.73x 2023()2022 2024/4/19 wind 2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%5%7 PB 2013Q3 PB_LF 0.6 2022 11 22%ROE 0.49 5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,5000.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.32017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01PB_LF()_ wind()LPR LPR 2023 8 2020-2022 20%2022 1.3%1.65%1.29%2022Q4 1.28%1.27%1.65%1.66%1.29%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%2010H2010A2011H2011A2012H2012A2013H2013A2014H2014A2015H2015A2016H2016A2017H2017A2018H2018A2019H2019A2020H2020A2021H2021A2022H2022A2023H2023Q3-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 PB 0.6 wind 18%9 2022 8 16 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H 2021A 2022H 2022A 2023H 2023A 2.19%2.72%1.66%1.71%2.32%4.29%4.79%5.47%6.14%6.18%5.37%2.53%2.23%1.67%0.94%1.31%1.56%1.85%2.98%4.36%4.76%5.64%2.47%1.13%1.38%1.45%1.81%1.54%3.39%3.97%5.48%5.79%5.42%0.87%1.40%0.93%0.53%4.68%4.91%5.05%5.67%7.23%5.11%5.51%0.33%1.35%1.69%1.25%1.90%2.80%3.39%4.99%0.03%0.04%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.01%0.02%1.01%1.45%1.01%2.45%1.01%1.23%1.03%0.44%0.30%1.07%1.41%2.82%4.08%5.52%5.26%0.46%0.66%1.21%0.84%0.92%0.66%1.08%2.15%1.30%0.81%0.84%0.27%0.53%0.36%2.63%2.07%3.03%2.75%3.83%3.06%2.88%0.06%0.77%1.56%1.18%0.21%0.57%0.22%0.77%1.43%1.01%0.86%0.26%0.22%0.29%0.28%0.69%1.04%2.66%2.99%4.28%5.13%4.92%0.05%0.26%0.35%1.19%3.35%3.11%3.63%2.89%3.08%5.29%2.59%0.07%0.01%0.17%0.66%0.62%2.82%3.77%0.17%0.19%0.30%0.45%0.73%0.61%1.23%2.56%3.89%4.22%5.33%1.10%1.29%0.62%0.29%0.09%0.61%0.62%0.90%1.66%2.31%2.48%10 2023 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023H 2023A 1.04%2.04%1.33%1.25%0.99%1.04%2.30%2.00%1.65%1.70%1.84%1.34%1.23%1.18%1.55%2.14%2.25%1.81%1.39%0.98%0.98%0.89%0.67%0.86%1.18%1.23%1.02%1.08%0.99%1.09%0.59%0.59%0.93%1.07%0.95%1.02%4.47%8.19%4.99%2.88%1.81%1.08%0.93%1.63%1.00%0.93%1.26%-0.46%0.61%0.48%1.07%1.72%1.10%1.15%1.87%1.46%1.70%1.81%-20.05%9.03%3.89%3.04%0.68%-0.67%0.96%0.81%1.49%1.65%1.31%0.64%0.62%0.63%0.90%0.96%0.79%0.88%0.95%1.57%1.70%1.58%-2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023H 2023A 1.62%0.85%0.64%0.65%0.57%0.76%2.23%1.30%0.97%0.91%0.79%0.86%2.42%1.99%1.67%1.69%1.62%1.73%2.64%0.99%0.72%0.65%0.58%0.95%0.81%0.63%0.62%0.64%0.56%0.61%1.25%0.67%0.52%0.56%0.61%0.79%1.42%1.51%1.30%1.51%1.59%-3.00%2.77%2.13%1.61%1.17%1.20%0.84%0.76%0.57%0.95%1.37%-1.13%0.73%0.55%0.76%0.73%0.69%0.64%0.53%0.29%0.57%0.95%-13.65%8.98%4.79%1.92%1.37%-2.58%2.29%2.23%2.46%3.20%4.42%3.21%4.03%3.46%3.38%3.15%2.44%0.87%0.82%0.73%1.49%1.75%2.05%0.95%0.92%0.94%0.99%0.80%0.78%2.42%2.02%1.59%2.00%1.79%-11 ROE 3 3.75%3.71%4.36%2018 3.51pct 2022 9 3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%2017-12 2018-09 2019-06 2020-03 2020-12 2021-09 2022-06 2023-03 2023-12 2021 2022 2023 2.34%-17 bp 2.21%-13 bp 1.73%-48 bp-78 bp 2.79%26 bp 2.75%-4 bp 2.38%-37 bp-15 bp 2.13%-6 bp 2.02%-11 bp 1.70%-32 bp-49 bp 2.11%-4 bp 1.92%-19 bp 1.61%-31 bp-54 bp 2.12%-8 bp 1.90%-22 bp 1.60%-30 bp-60 bp 2.16%-13 bp 2.01%-15 bp 1.74%-27 bp-55 bp 2.48%-1 bp 2.40%-8 bp 2.15%-25 bp-34 bp 2.17%-8 bp 1.97%-20 bp 1.73%-24 bp-52 bp 1.83%-9 bp 1.76%-7 bp 1.54%-22 bp-38 bp 2.06%-21 bp 1.74%-32 bp 1.52%-22 bp-75 bp 2.27%8 bp 2.21%-6 bp 2.01%-20 bp-18 bp 1.56%-1 bp 1.48%-8 bp 1.28%-20 bp-29 bp 2.36%-6 bp 2.20%-16 bp 2.01%-19 bp-41 bp 2.31%-9 bp 2.27%-4 bp 2.08%-19 bp-32 bp 2.05%-21 bp 1.97%-8 bp 1.78%-19 bp-48 bp 1.83%-15 bp 1.69%-14 bp 1.50%-19 bp-48 bp 2.29%-7 bp 2.10%-19 bp 1.93%-17 bp-43 bp 1.95%-12 bp 1.81%-14 bp 1.64%-17 bp-43 bp 1.75%-10 bp 1.76%1 bp 1.59%-17 bp-26 bp 3.06%-12 bp 3.02%-4 bp 2.86%-16 bp-32 bp 2.21%-9 bp 2.02%-19 bp 1.88%-14 bp-42 bp 1.91%-23 bp 1.60%-31 bp 1.46%-14 bp-68 bp 2.14%-5 bp 2.18%4 bp 2.06%-12 bp-13 bp 1.79%-34 bp 1.76%-3 bp 1.83%7 bp-30 bp2023 21bp 42bp 2023 1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%3.5%4.5%5.5%6.5%2020 2021 2022 2023-()-()12 ROE 2022 0.7%7.6%31 2023-1%1.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 13 ROE=/*1+/2=*/-=+=+=+=/*1+/2 0=*/*1+/2/1+/2 0=/1+/2 1+/2*2020-2023 48%52%43.9%42.4%25%20%/2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2022 2023 5.5%12.6%12.8%11.0%12.3%12.4%58.6%58.4%7.5%14.4%10.8%12.1%12.7%12.6%61.1%62.1%6.9%16.7%17.5%13.2%15.1%14.4%58.1%56.6%9.5%8.2%12.2%10.5%11.7%13.7%60.6%61.4%9.1%11.4%8.2%12.2%11.2%9.1%56.2%56.6%10.9%11.8%11.8%12.9%11.7%13.0%51.3%51.8%14 ROE a)2020-2023 38.8%35.4%31.5%31%35%65%b)5bp 15bp 60bp 2023 1.26%1.93%2.5%1.42%0.94%2023 1.48%c)11%0(25bp)20bp+13bp(5bp)2020 2021 2022 2023 2022Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 0.79%0.60%0.85%0.85%0.60%0.66%0.70%0.96%0.92%1.24%1.26%0.55%0.61%0.66%1.65%1.55%1.80%1.93%0.65%0.66%0.73%0.88%0.82%0.84%0.83%0.71%0.75%0.76%0.98%0.94%1.13%1.12%0.85%0.96%0.81%2.00%1.67%1.70%1.73%1.13%1.09%1.12%0.91%0.79%0.86%1.65%1.30%1.49%1.48%0.65%0.58%0.95%0.49%0.36%0.38%0.39%0.65%0.57%0.76%0.72%0.61%0.78%1.70%1.62%1.73%2023 0.43%0.38%0.45%0.50%0.50%0.34%0.59%0.51%0.62%0.71%0.72%0.81%0.63%0.55%0.66%0.76%0.77%0.94%0 0.24%0.22%0.24%0.31%0.28%0.17%0 0.15%0.13%0.15%0.21%0.19%0.12%2023 0.36%0.38%0.37%0.35%0.43%0.18%0.21%0.25%0.22%0.13%0.23%0.05%15 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2021 2.16%2.08%2021 0.54%0.96%1.21%2000-2021 ROE 2021 12.1%2014-2021 ROE 15.4%13.8%11.3%6%16 ROE 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023A 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023A 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q3 2023Q4 2022A 2023A 3.4%4.5%6.4%3.3%5.0%2.4%1.27%1.27%195%192%10.8%10.1%-3.4%1.9%0.0%7.8%0.5%3.9%1.35%1.33%304%304%11.3%10.9%-0.4%5.6%2.3%-2.4%-6.7%1.2%0.81%0.83%364%348%11.9%10.9%-2.7%-3.5%-1.8%2.6%0.3%2.4%1.37%1.37%243%240%12.3%11.6%-4.6%-4.0%0.3%-3.0%-2.7%0.7%1.32%1.33%199%195%10.4%9.7%-6.1%-4.3%-3.7%0.0%0.8%0.8%1.36%1.36%216%214%11.4%10.7%3.0%4.8%4.3%9.8%10.3%10.5%1.45%1.44%183%183%9.0%9.5%-4.6%-1.4%-1.6%1.7%5.2%6.2%0.96%0.95%446%438%17.1%16.2%-3.8%-2.5%-2.6%5.4%3.9%7.9%1.22%1.18%210%208%10.8%10.8%-4.3%6.0%-0.6%5.3%5.6%5.3%1.72%1.67%160%160%9.0%8.7%1.1%1.9%-1.2%7.2%50.6%1.6%1.55%1.48%149%150%6.3%6.1%-15.6%-11.0%-8.4%-2.2%-23.0%2.1%1.04%1.06%283%278%12.4%11.4%-8.0%-2.6%-3.9%2.5%-62.2%-9.0%1.35%1.25%176%181%10.3%8.4%-8.6%-3.9%-5.2%-17.2%-37.9%-15.6%1.07%1.07%238%245%13.9%10.6%-7.7%-9.6%-8.1%-52.9%-18.6%-28.3%1.52%1.48%177%174%8.0%5.2%12.9%10.5%12.1%21.5%14.9%19.6%0.75%0.75%537%538%13.1%13.7%3.3%7.4%8.0%17.8%22.3%18.0%1.26%1.26%314%304%11.9%12.9%5.1%10.6%7.9%17.0%3.9%13.0%0.98%0.97%300%304%10.8%11.0%3.6%10.4%6.3%25.5%12.0%23.2%0.76%0.76%570%561%14.1%15.6%1.6%8.5%8.5%6.4%10.9%9.6%1.16%1.15%311%314%12.6%12.5%-1.9%9.7%6.4%8.1%5.1%10.7%0.76%0.76%481%461%15.6%15.1%-1.3%8.9%2.3%16.7%19.0%16.8%0.98%0.98%473%409%11.9%12.6%0.5%30.8%7.1%13.3%14.8%15.1%1.14%1.18%255%226%9.0%10.7%-3.0%2.6%1.3%5.2%-6.0%10.0%0.78%0.79%547%523%13.0%11.5%11.4%0.7%7.6%1.2%-2.1%7.3%1.70%1.72%195%198%5.8%6.0%-6.4%14.0%0.7%3.6%-0.1%3.5%1.33%1.32%215%217%9.6%9.3%-15.9%5.5%-1.9%-6.4%5.3%1.3%1.33%1.34%225%234%10.2%10.1%-2.7%-5.9%-3.6%3.7%-8.3%6.1%1.20%1.19%354%367%9.8%9.6%-6.0%-1.3%-4.8%0.4%1.7%1.2%1.21%1.21%290%273%11.0%10.4%-16.3%-8.9%-4.8%11.8%-15.4%6.2%0.79%0.76%393%412%11.4%11.2%-14.4%-5.6%-9.5%-19.3%-8.2%-23.6%1.88%1.87%161%175%3.5%3.3%2023 17 18 19 2024 4 19 wind 2023 EPS BVPS EPS BVPS PB PE 23A 24E 23A 24E 23A 24E 23A 24E601398.SH 0.98 0.98 9.55 10.22 0.58 0.54 5.66 5.66 5.55 601939.SH 1.31 1.30 11.80 12.94 0.62 0.57 5.61 5.64 7.35 601288.SH 0.72 0.72 6.88 7.48 0.66 0.61 6.31 6.33 4.54 601328.SH 1.15 1.15 12.30 13.08 0.56 0.53 6.00 5.98 6.90 601658.SH 0.83 0.81 7.92 8.77 0.62 0.56 5.88 6.02 4.88 600036.SH 5.63 5.61 36.71 40.36 0.92 0.83 5.97 5.99 33.62 601166.SH 3.51 3.51 34.05 36.67 0.48 0.44 4.61 4.61 16.18 000001.SZ 2.25 2.31 20.74 22.34 0.52 0.48 4.75 4.63 10.69 600016.SH 0.72 0.72 12.10 12.61 0.33 0.32 5.60 5.57 4.03 601818.SH 0.62 0.63 7.57 8.03 0.42 0.39 5.10 4.99 3.16 601916.SH 0.57 0.52 5.87 6.22 0.51 0.48 5.25 5.80 2.99 002142.SZ 3.75 4.12 26.71 30.23 0.83 0.74 5.94 5.40 22.27 600926.SH 2.31 2.82 15.90 18.21 0.76 0.66 5.22 4.27 12.05 600919.SH 1.65(E)2.00 11.53(E)13.01 0.71 0.63 4.96 4.09 8.17 002966.SZ 1.26(E)1.52 11.44(E)12.57 0.66 0.60 5.99 4.97 7.56 601128.SH 1.20 1.42 8.99 10.42 0.84 0.73 6.30 5.33 7.56 601077.SH 0.94 1.00 10.19 10.91 0.46 0.43 4.97 4.66 4.67 20 1%20240418 3576555 A H22评级 说明 国泰君安证券研究所E-mail：投资建议的比较标准股票投资评级增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅15%以上上海投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。谨慎增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于5%15%之间以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300 指数涨跌幅为基准。中性 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于-5%5%深圳 减持 相对沪深300/恒生指数下跌5%以上行业投资评级增持 明显强于沪深300/恒生指数中性 基本与沪深300/恒生指数持平北京 减持 明显低于沪深300/恒生指数地址 上海市静安区新闸路669号博华广场20 层邮编 200041电话（021）38676666地址 深圳市福田区益田路6003号荣超商务中心B 栋27层邮编 518026电话（0755）23976888地址 北京市西城区金融大街甲9 号 金融街中心南楼18层邮编 100032电话（010）83939888