20240315_东方证券_机械设备行业央国企改革专题研究：机械央国企投资价值分析_19页.pdf

|2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 8.5%23Q1-3 44%27%2015 2017 10%ROE 30%2022 ROE PE PE PB PE 2020 PE 24 PB PB 2020(601766)(688187)(688009)(600528)(688425)(600320)(600150)(600582)(688570)(601038)(000039)(301039)/2024 03 15 021-63325888*6090 S0860520060002 BSW113 S0860522080002 2024-03-12 2024-03-09 2024 2023-11-22 2 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.11 5.14 6.16 7.16 ZXDWyRsPpMmNtNmPrMpQqR9PbP7NtRrRmOrNkPnNnOkPtRoRbRoOxPMYnOwOuOsPmN 3 1/%.7 2 2019-2023Q1-3/%.7 3 2019-2023Q1-3/%.7 4/.8 5/.8 6.9 7.9 8.9 9 ROE.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15.11 16.11 17.11 18/%.12 19/%.12 20/%.12 21/%.12 22/ROE%.12 23/ROE%.12 24/.13 25/.13 26/%.13 27/%.13 28/.14 29/%.14 30 PEttm.14 31 PB.14 32 PEttm/PEttm.15 33 PB/PB.15 34 PEttm.15 4 35 PB.15 36 PEttm.16 37 PB.16 38 PEttm.16 39 PB.16 1.5 2.6/WqLn+Nt8pYATlOsYrv9FLzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVkbL0+oBZR2uGyXQO6I0HN1 5 1.2020 2021 2023 2023 2023 1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024(1)2 3 2023 65%6 1 2 3 2024 2023 12 25 12 26 2023 2024 2024 1 2023 GDP 2 2 2023 2024 GDP 65%1 2 3 4 7 2.47 8.5%111 20%47 555 8.5%39 7%25 4.5%437 79%1%1/%Wind iFind 2019 7853 2022 10379 9.75%2019 52%2022 46%2023Q1-3 7395 44%2019 333 2022 386 5.07%2019 41%2022 31%2023Q1-3 304 27%2 2019-2023Q1-3/%3 2019-2023Q1-3/%,437,79%,47,8%,39,7%,25,5%,5,1%,1,0%,1,0%8 Wind iFind Wind iFind 47(14)II(9)(7)(5(3)II(3)4/Wind iFind 47 II(9(9)4 3 II 3 5/Wind iFind 149753 31 1 1 1 1 102468101214169 943 32 2 2 21 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1012345678910 9 3.2015 8 22 1+N 2015 3 111 2015 2015 15.2 2022 30.5 2015 0.5 2022 1.2 2017 10%6 7 iFind iFind 2015-2021 ROE 8 9 ROE iFind iFind 23Q1-3 ROE-15-10-50510152005101520253035%-25-20-15-10-50510152000.20.40.60.811.21.4%0510152025%0123456ROE%10 2015 2015 2.6/2022 3.4/23Q1-3 10 11 iFind 23Q1-3 iFind=/2015-2022 0.7 1.5 4%2018 0.9 2022 1.3 2018 3.9%2023 4.5%12 13 iFind iFind 2015 74 2022 136 50%01234 012345678 44.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.800.20.40.60.811.21.41.6%3.63.73.83.944.14.24.34.44.54.600.20.40.60.811.21.42018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-3%11 14 15 iFind iFind 30%2020 2022 268 2015 2.5 2015 0.2 2022 0.6 30%16 17 iFind iFind 4.2020 6 30 2020 2022 47 64 437 2020 2022 22Q2-23Q1 22Q1 47484950515253%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05101520253035404500.10.20.30.40.50.60.72015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%010203040506070800501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 12 18/%19/%iFind iFind ROE ROE 19Q1-23Q3/18%/20%/31%4%/4%/11%ROE 1%/1%/2%2021-23Q3 ROE ROE 20/%21/%iFind iFind 22/ROE%23/ROE%-30-20-1001020304050607019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3-60-30030609012015019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 051015202530354019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 024681012141619Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3-10123419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 0246810121416 13 iFind iFind 23Q1-3 ROE 2018 2023/4.9%/4.0%/5.0%2020 2015 2023/53%/49%/36%24/25/iFind iFind 26/%27/%iFind iFind 2015-2020 2021 21 00.511.522.53-303691215 01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-3 010203040506070 14 28/29/%iFind iFind 5.PE PE PB PE 2021 PE 24 PB PB 2020 30 PEttm 31 PB iFind 2024 3 8 iFind 2024 3 8 01020304050602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PE ttm 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PB 00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 15 32 PEttm/PEttm 33 PB/PB iFind 2024 3 8 iFind 2024 3 8 1 PE PB PB 2 PE 18-23 24 PB PB 22 3 PE PB 34 PEttm 35 PB iFind 2024 3 8 iFind 2024 3 8 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PE ttm 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PB 0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PE ttm 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PB 16 36 PEttm 37 PB iFind 2024 3 8 iFind 2024 3 8 38 PEttm 39 PB iFind 2024 3 8 iFind 2024 3 8 6.(601766)(688187)(688009)(600528)(688425)(600320)(600150)(600582)(688570)(601038)(000039)(301039)7.0204060801001201401602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PE ttm 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PB 051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PE ttm 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 PB 17 18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer