20240321_华创证券_餐饮行业深度研究报告：从茶饮公司递表看现制饮品行业发展茶百道、沪上阿姨、古茗、蜜雪冰城招股书拆解_34页.pdf

2009 1210 2024 03 21 22 4 23 7 30%/15%30000 4 8000-9000 22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 25.66 46.80 yoy+82%103.51 yoy+121%135.76 yoy+31.2%153.93 yoy+46.0%4.4 6.3 yoy+42.81%19.1 yoy+203.09%20.13 yoy+5.3%24.53 yoy+51.1%17%14%18%14.7%15.6%2021/2022/2023Q1-3 43.8/55.6/55.7 2022/2023Q1-3 26.8%/33.9%2021/2022/2023Q1-3 7.7/7.9/10.5 2022/2023Q1-3 2.4%/73.2%2021/2022/2023Q1-3 30.0%/28.1%/31.0%17.6%/14.2%/18.7%GMV GMV 2021/2022/2023 GMV 220/230/250 2023 GMV 230 GMV 240 08 2020-2023 74.15%2020/2021/2022/2023 10.8/36.4/42.3/57.06 2021/2022/2023 237.4%/16.1%/34.8%2020/2021/2022/2023 2.4/7.8/9.6/11.5 226.9%/23.9%/19.3%2020-2023 69.06%2021-2022 16.40 22 2023 9 25.35 54%2021 2022 2023 9 75.7%77.7%79.7%2021-2022 8339.9 1.49 yoy+79%2023 9 3.24 yoy+189%2021 22%2022 27%2023 9 31%2021 5%22 7%23 9 13%010-66500993 S0360517040002%()4 0.00()203.34 0.02()187.53 0.03%1M 6M 12M 16.8%-11.1%-22.1%13.2%-8.6%-12.0%2023-05-24 2022-10-24 2022-09-26-41%-22%-4%15%23/03 23/06 23/08 23/10 24/01 24/032023-03-212024-03-21 300 2009 1210 ZXCXvMnQsRoPtNtQtOrOoPbRcM7NnPrRpNmQjMmMtQjMsQoM7NrRxOwMqQsRNZoMtN 2009 1210 3.6.6.8.11.14.17 1.17 2.18 3.18 4.19.20 1.20 2.22 3.22 4.23.24.25.25.27 20-21.28.29.29.29 2.9 4.8.30.30.31 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.10 15.10 16.10 17.10 18.11 19 2023Q1-3.11 20.11 21.12 22.12 23.12 24.12 25.13 26.13 27 GMV.13 28.14 29&.15 30.15 31/.15 32.15 33 GMV.15 dFUlBPaFxQyARVvx9L/dD7zkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVmgQefbceAMolTUie2yRdwf 2009 1210 5 34/.16 35.16 36.16 37.16 38&.17 39.17 40.17 41.18 42.18 43.19 44.19 45/.20 46.21 47.22 48 2023.23 49.23 50.24 51.25 52 GMV.26 53 GMV.26 54 2023Q3.27 55 2023 23.28 56&.28 57.29 58.30 59.31 60.31 61.31 2009 1210 6 1997 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 25.66 46.80 yoy+82%103.51 yoy+121%135.76 yoy+31.2%153.93 yoy+46.0%4.4 6.3 yoy+42.81%19.1 yoy+203.09%20.13 yoy+5.3%24.53 yoy+51.1%17%14%18%14.7%15.6%1 2023Q1-Q3 94%98%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 35.9%34.1%31.3%28.3%29.7%2 3 20202023Q1-3 2.7%3.9%5.7%98.10%97.97%98.04%98.16%91.37%92.45%92.73%94.23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2022Q1-3 2023Q1-3商品及设备销售 商品销售 设备销售 加盟和相关服务0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%商品及设备销售商品销售设备销售加盟和相关服务合计2023Q1-3 2022Q1-3 2022 2021 2009 1210 7 6.4%2020-2023Q3 2.3%3.6%3.7%2.8%20192023Q1-3 6.3 21.2 27.3 27.64 37.59 51.24%56.26%37.42%27.8%26.7%63.78%80.85%53.96%42.2%40.3%20192023Q1-3 8.94 9.54 8.50 6.97 5.52 2023Q3 30.06%+20192023Q1-3 1.94 2.23 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.48 1.88 2.2 2.1 1.7 4 5 2021-2023Q3 20001 28983 36153 98.65%93.81%89.01%22 7457 23 4992 95%50%2022 1795 23 Q3 3973 6 7 21 2.04 2.7%3.9%5.7%6.5%2.3%3.6%3.7%2.8%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3销售费用率 管理费用率 研发费用率26.76 27.64 33.71 37.59 05101520253035402021 2022 2022Q3 2023Q319,73127,18832,18005000100001500020000250003000035000一线城市 新一线城市 二线城市三线及以下城市 国内门店总数 海外4%4%5%21%21%21%16%17%18%58.7%57.2%56.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 2023Q3一线城市 新一线城市 二线城市 三线及以下城市 2009 1210 8 22 2.12 23 Q3 2.22 8 2021 2022 2022Q3 2023Q3 12,509 19,954 19,954 28,929 8,022 9,671 7,190 8,020(577)(696)(470)(856)19,954 28,929 26,674 36,093 6,366 9,784 9,784 13,625 9,784 13,625 12,470 16,281 2.04 2.12 2.14 2.22/(+)/2 2019 41.3 2021 58.72 2022 51.35 9 19-21 A 22 08 2020-2023 74.15%2020/2021/2022/2023 10.8/36.4/42.3/57.06 2021/2022/2023 237.4%/16.1%/34.8%2020/2021/2022/2023 2.4/7.8/9.6/11.5 226.9%/23.9%/19.3%2020-2023 69.06%2009 1210 9 10 11 95%4%1%23 7801 7795 6 90%/10.6%/26.9%/20.9%/19.4%/22.2%37.3%28.6%34.1%2020 1 86%2023 12 95.9%2021 61%2023 59%2021-2023 5070 6352 7795 7 9 6 12 13 2020/2021/2022/2023 36.7%/35.7%/34.4%/34.4%22.0%/21.4%/22.8%/20.2%23 31.8%2.3%7.4%0.3%0%50%100%150%200%250%0100020003000400050006000收入 收入同比0%50%100%150%200%250%0200400600800100012001400年/期内全面收益总额 利润同比95%95%95%95%5%4%4%4%1%1%1%1%2020 2021 2022 2023销售货品和设备收入占比 特许权使用费及加盟费收入占比 其他收入占比01000200030004000500060007000800090002020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 10 14 15 2020-2023 23.21 99.84 133.32 169.09 1.48/5.97/7.94/10.16 27.8/28.9/28.6/27.4 20-23 15.7/16.7/16.8/16.6 20-22 2020-2023 103.5 196.7 209.6 216.8 90%6.6%3.4%16 2020 2021 2022 2023 2320.5 9984 13331.7 16,909.10 147.7 597.2 794.4 1,016.10 83.5 345.4 465.9 618.2 2242 5077 6361 7,801 27.8 28.9 28.6 27.4 103.5 196.7 209.6 216.8 90%6.6%3.4%21 1.09 23 1.41 17 2020 2021 2022 2023 531 2240 5070 6352 1712 2843 1358 1663-3-13-76-220 2240 5070 6352 7795 624 2580 4634 5369 2580 4634 5396 5538 0.87 1.09 1.18 1.41 1 1-2 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2020 2021 2022 2023销售费用率 管理费用率 研发费用率0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 2022 2023毛利率 净利率 2009 1210 11 2010 14-20 2021/2022/2023Q1-3 43.8/55.6/55.7 2022/2023Q1-3 26.8%/33.9%2021/2022/2023Q1-3 7.7/7.9/10.5 2022/2023Q1-3 2.4%/73.2%1 2023 80.4%2 2023 19.5%3 23Q3 6 2023 0.2%18 19 2023Q1-3 2023 31%18.8%2022 3.3pct 22 2021 2023Q1-3 81.5%2022 1.1pct 2023Q1-3 19.8%20 2023 4.3%3.2%26.8%33.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050602021 2022 2023Q1-3收入(亿元)yoy75.0%5.4%1.5%16.7%1.3%0.2%销售商品销售设备初始加盟 费持续支持 服务费提供培训 及其他 服务直营门店 销售0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 2023Q1-3销售 商品 及设 备 加盟管理 服务 直营门店 销售 合计 2009 1210 12 2.3%23 18.7%2022 14.5%4.2pct 23Q3 23Q3 107 21 22 2023 9001 6/3.0%/18.2%/29.9%/26.1/22.8%500 500 23 15 19 38%23 9 500 8 23 87%GMV 25%45%23 24 2023 38%4.2%4.8%4.3%2.8%3.4%3.2%1.5%2.1%2.3%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2021 2022 2023Q1-3销售费用率 管理费用率 研发费用率0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0246810122021 2022 2023Q1-3净利润 经调整净 利润 经调整净 利润率 2009 1210 13 7 25 26 2023 15 8 500 2023 8 80.9%87%GMV GMV GMV 2021/2022/2023 GMV 220/230/250 2023 GMV 230 GMV 240 GMV GMV 2021 2023 GMV 9.4%2023 5%GMV 10%27 GMV 2021 2022 2023 1725 1868 2054 GMV 15.2%3.3%5.1%1590 1641 1914 GMV 7.4%3.2%12.0%1689 2349 3317 GMV 14.9%4.1%11.6%5694 6669 9001 GMV 12.0%2.8%9.4%2023 37.6 20.2%10-15%23 5694666990010%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002021 2022 2023门店总数 门店yoy1.6%2.5%3.0%20.5%20.4%18.2%33.1%32.1%29.9%23.0%23.7%26.1%21.9%21.3%22.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023一线城市 新一线城 市 二线城市 三线城市 四线及以 下城市 2009 1210 14 38.6 2023Q3 1.95 3.1 75%28 2021 5689 5 2381 2.39 2022 6664 5 2949 2.26 2023 8995 6 4614 1.95 13 7 19 1 2013 7-22 2 2022 13-23 3 2023 2-12 2023 9 30 23.9.30 49%7297 1964 7257 40 2021-2022 16.40 22 2023 9 25.35 54%2021 2022 2023 9 75.7%77.7%79.7%2021-2022 8339.9 1.49 yoy+79%2023 9 3.24 yoy+189%2021 22%2022 27%2023 9 31%2021 5%22 7%23 9 13%2009 1210 15 29&30 23 9 7297 7245 52 2023 9 30 4284 32.3%1382 47.3%1087 2021 58%23 9 30 51%31/32 GMV GMV 26-27 2022 GMV 114.3 3.8%33 GMV 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 GMV 41.61 60.68 71.49 157311 226511 269258 3776 5307 7257 GMV 26 27 27 GMV 1101.98 1143.38 985.19 051015202530收入 净利0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%向加盟商销售货物向加盟商销售食材以及其他原材料销售设备加盟服务来自自营店的收入2023Q1-3 2022Q1-3 2022 202158%54%51%42%46%49%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%北方 南方010002000300040005000600070008000门店总计 加盟商数量 2009 1210 16 21 27%2023 9 32%2021 2022 2023 9 3711 5244 7245 94.9%94.2%96.1%34/35+23 9 80%16.39%5%23 9 43.1%49%+38.5%43.3%18.4%36 37 21-23 9 21.8%26.7%31.2%5.1%6.8%12.8%23 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%一间门店 一间门店以上010002000300040005000600070008000加盟店 直营店0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2021 2022 2022Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q30100020003000400050006000700080002021 年 2022 年 2023 Q1-Q3 2009 1210 17 38&39 1 2023Q3 50%38%11%A A 10-18 2021 2022 2023 9 30 94 82 107 2021 2022 2023 23 Q1-Q3 51%30-50 70-80 40 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2021 2022 2022Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3毛利率 净利率10.85%12.66%12.88%10.12%4.31%5.15%4.61%4.67%0.36%0.60%0.54%0.76%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2021 2022 2022Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3销售及营销费用率 管理费用率 研发费用率 2009 1210 18 41 2 23 Q1 SKU 35 8-26 60%/2022 300 43 9 42 30-100 23 44.3%42.8%30-49 50-100 95.9%59%3 2009 1210 19 2-8 42.3%4 2 6 7 7 23 9 47 5 43 15-60 44 4 2021 2022 2023 100 18-20 15-17 10-11 2009 1210 20 13-15 45/1 35 2023Q1-3 17.2%60%100%143 2009 1210 21 46 2023 9 30 30 26 2023 9 30 6.6 11 2023 9 30 31 300 1700 3100 90%12 90%2023 9 30 300 2009 1210 22 47 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 127.9 58.7%255.7 61.2%417.7 45.5%76.8 83.1%233.8 62.9%264.9 61.1%2.7 33.7%3.6 23.3%6.1 71.4%11.3 58.6%35.6 85.5%101.1 69.9%103.9 62.0%11.6 23.2%16.1 33.3%8.7 45.6%65.4 17.6%90.3 43.0%105.5 59.6%2 2022 30 81600 2023Q3 30%2023Q3 16.3%2023Q3 9%20%2024 2023Q3 21 20 75%150 97%GMV 0.9%2%3 2022 37.4%23 Q1 2023Q1 22 17+5 8 2009 1210 23 300 2023Q1 92%48 2023/F 2021 382.413 11.1%B 2020 356.832 10.4%A 2019 226.559 6.6%D 2021 146.465 4.3%G 2021 144.263 4.2%4 23 9 30 1 2 3 4 19 23 9 30 WMS 22 10000 23 9 30 1921.9 1243.7 1730.2 23 12 2078.2 24 700 49/22/22/22/23/9/30/23/9/30/23/9/30 640.6 384.0 59.9%1,441.4 1,590.1 110.3%369.6 61.6 16.7%910.3 730.6 80.3%359.8 19.9 5.5%918.1 626.6 68.3%2009 1210 24+22 21 69 15%22 8 4.98 3 2 5 1 4 2 18 9/10/9/3 2 GMV 2%-5%60 42 30 3%2 98800 0 15 3 4 50 3-4 7000-11000 3 33 24 2-4 3 17 3 50 80 38.8 150000 100000 2009 1210 25 90-170 98 6 1%2017 873 2022 2137 19.6%50.7%2028 5871 2022-2028 18.3%51 20 20 10 10 2022/GMV 217/865/598 12.9%/51.5%/35.6%2027/GMV 435/2444/1634 2022-2027 14.9%/23.1%/22.3%10-20 87 109 133 145 186 214 259 313 371 437 512 587 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E现制茶饮 现磨咖啡 其他现制 饮品现 制 茶饮yoy 现 磨 咖啡yoy 其 他 现制饮 品yoy 2009 1210 26 52 GMV 2022/GMV 288/337/323/732 17.1%/20.1%/19.2%/43.6%2022 247 460 2022-2028/GMV 15.8%/17.5%/20.7%/24.6%53 GMV GMV 2020 38.5%2023Q3 44.3%2023Q1-3 105 49.5%CR5 74.4%2023 Q3 45.6 6.4%CR5 13.1%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002503003504004505002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E高价 大众 平价 高价yoy 大众yoy 平价yoy01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E一线城市 新一线城 市 二线城市 三线及以 下城市 2009 1210 27 54 2023Q3 2023Q1-3 GMV GMV 2023Q1-3 2023Q3 2-8 33.1 20.0%5.2 49.5%29.2 6.4%10-18 13.8 8.3%0.9 8.6%8.6 1.9%B 10-22 12.5 7.6%0.7 6.7%7.5 1.6%C 10-19 7 4.2%0.5 4.8%7.3 1.6%D 10-20 6.8 4.1%0.5 4.8%7 1.5%30000 4 8000-9000 2023+338.84%3480 23 23 12 81 2022 10 21 22 9 23 1 23 4 10 KA 2009 1210 28 55 2023 23 23Q4 10%+21%-9%20 56&%/transactions/average ticket 23Q1 3%4%-1%23Q2 46%48%-1%23Q3 5%8%-3%23Q4 10%21%-9%20-21 A 2020.12 200 23 6 10 180 2020 2021 Coatue Management 6.74 2009 1210 29 57 2.33 173.9 405.2 8%Coatue 34 2.33 21.7 50.7 1%2.40 87.0 208.7 4%Abbeay Street 2.20 4.3 9.6 0.2%2020 A 1 2021 A+1 2023 B 2024 C 2017 2.119 2022 2.941 6.8%2027 4.463 2022 2027 8.7%2017 4.2 2022 9.1 20.2%2027 22.8 GMV 2017 14.4%2022 44.6%2027 50%2017 35.6%2022 51.7%2027 70%+“”+20 boy 2009 1210 30 2.9 4.8 58 2022/N N 23Q3 8298 5.7 2.9 2861 1444 19284 2.9 2.9 6650 6725 21696 3.8 2.9 7481 5714 91897 5.0 2.9 31689 18297 141175 4.4 2.9 48681 32180 22 9872 2683 3.7 3.8 2022 1%17%18 13 260 2028 52 36 2022 20.3%2022 163 2028 494 2018 9 2020 22 1 23 4 1500 23 9 4000 6.6 11 IP TIKTOK 21 2009 1210 31 59 60&2-3 61 2009 1210 32 2016 2017 2020 2021 2021 2022 2009 1210 33 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 34 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522