20240418_华鑫证券_量子信息技术行业专题报告：优化运算法则重塑安全格局_41页.pdf

2024 04 18 SAC S1050521120001 SAC S1050123120019 NISQ QKD QT/;PAGE 21ZAZvMtOoNpOrPpMrMrOrQaQ8QbRsQnNoMqMlOmMnRjMoPzQ6MnMsMxNrNmOuOoMuM Wind wind 2024-04-18EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E000555.SZ 10.720.21 0.21 0.4351.30 53.62 24.98 000988.SZ 32.51 0.90 1.00 1.32 18.21 29.72 24.70 002281.SZ 36.97 0.87 0.73 0.90 18.04 50.48 41.00 600487.SH 13.29 0.64 0.87 1.09 20.77 15.28 12.19 688027.SH 165.75-1.07-1.54 0.00-94.75-82.80-33305.13 688385.SH 30.96 1.32 1.84 2.19 23.45 16.83 14.14 PAGE 3 PAGE 4u5kaTOjDlrCb9vvA99I66siCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZ+1ozavC2L7laeb5e39joj 目 录CONTENTS2.3.1.4.5.PAGE 501 50%70%60%35 42 13 27 1.1(2023),7%,14%,21%,51%,7%,17%,11%,72%,2%,3%,3%,3%,4%,7%,7%,29%,19%,7.80%PAGE 70 2 1982 Richard Feynman 1985 David Deutsch 1992 Deutsch Jozsa D-J 1994 Peter Shor Shor,RSA 1995 Benjamin Schumacher qubit 1996 Lov Grover Grove shor 1998 Bernhard Omer 2007 D-wave Systems 16 Orion 2009 Harrow Hassidim Lloyd HHL 2014 Google Google 2016 8 16 2019 1 IBM IBM Q System One 2019 53 1982-19931994-20082007-2013 2014-20192.1 2030 2050 99.999%PAGE 920202.2 TechTarget 0 1 0 1 0 1 CPU)(GPU)QPU):/Shor Grover AI-273.15-459.67 PAGE 10 2.3 2023 41PAGE 112.3 Silicon Quantum Electronics Superconducting Circuits for Quantum Information:An Outlook P L C LJ()PAGE 122.3 Quantum Computations with Cold Trapped Ions Linear Optical Quantum Computing with Photonic Qubits Quantum Information with Rydberg Atoms(c)(s)a1,a2,a3 N N a b PAGE 132.3 012345 T1 T2 SPAM QuantWare:64 Tenor:176 Rigetti:84 Ankaa-1:41:1.2 GHz Intel:12 Tunnel Falls:255:100:37 HYQ-A37 Quantinuum:Model H2,32,99 524288:Atom computing:1125 2023 5 7:;T1/T2;/;SPAM PAGE 142.4 PAGE 15 QPU CPU Shor Grover 100 2.5 PAGE 1603 2001 2006 20083.1 2009 2013 2016 2020 2017(3)(56 95 7x24 22),100km 200km;(5)PAGE 182024 ()A B A B A B A B A B B A PAGE 193.2 3.2 QKD PAGE 20(QKD),kbps 1200(Quantum Teleportation)7600 1.2.1.QKD 2.3.1.2.3.:1.2.3.PAGE 213.2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 45 1 0 50%1.A 01100101 2.A 3.B A B 生成“水平垂直方向”偏振生成“对 角方向”偏振 测量 0 150%0 50%150%0 50%150%0 50%150%0 50%10 150%0 50%150%0 50%11 050%0 50%150%0 50%10 1 PAGE 223.2(QKD)AB 3 1 2 3 2 1 A 2 B A 3 Q 1 2 3 A 1 3 1 2 1 3 A B B A B 2 2 3 3A B 3 A B PAGE 233.2(Quantum Teleportation)QKD DV-QKD CV-QKD QKD ID Quantique(CV-QKD)(DV-QKD PAGE 243.3 TF 2021 QEYSSat Marconi 2.0 CQuCoM Nanobob Arqit QKD 2016 8 QKD QKD 1200 QKD(1.1kbit/s)2017.8 Nature1000 QKD(3.5bit/s)2017.11 Phys.Rev.Lett7600 QKD(100KB)2018.1 Phys.Rev.Lett1120 QKD(0.12 bit/s)2020.7 Nature-QKD 40(47.8 kbit/s)2021.1 Nature QKD(50KB)2022.5 arXiv 1200(0.869)2017.6 Science1400(0.80)2017.8 Nature 1200(0.82)2022.4 Phys.Rev.Lett.2019.9 Science(9kHz 30ps)2020.5 Nature Physics(2022)PAGE 25 3.3 TF2018(TF)-PLOB(SNS)(TWCC)TF-QKD QKD QKD 2023 SNS-TF-QKD(SNSPD)1002km 0.0034bps,QKD 200km 47kbps.TF-QKD 72 PMP-QKD 508km 42.64 bps/bps BB84 421km 6.5 2018 TF 90.8dB 0.045 2019 TF 502km 0.118 2020 TF 509km 0.269 2020 TF 605km 0.97 2021 TF 511km 3.45 2021 TF 658km 0.092 2022 TF 830km 0.014 2022 PMP 508km 42.64 2023 TF 615km 0.32 2023 TF 1002km 499km0.0034 47.9 2023 PAGE 26(2022)QKD 3.3 TF04 2023 10 29 280 2024 4.1 2023 12 2024 2024 1 2024 3 2024 3 2024/()2014 10 12.15 2018 1.2/2018 10 11 2018(NOI)5 12.75 37.38 2018 7.1 2019 7 7.4 2019 5 3.3 2019 5 5.3 2020 19.6 2021 5 21.7 2022 1.85 2022 4 1.53/2023 2.7 2023(NOS)10 31.8 2023 6.4 2023 5 1 2023 2035 17.9 2023 2030 7.2(2023)PAGE 284.2 2023 EDA,:;:;:;:PAGE 29/QKD/ICV Tank&2022 PAGE 304.3 055.1 Wind QKD 3 1 QKD ez-Q ez-ez-Q Leads&Components ez-Q Engine 176 PAGE 32 2019-2023 2019-2023-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%00.511.522.532019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%-1.4-1.2-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.62019 2020 2021 2022 2023归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)5.2 3C PTC IMR InP GaAs CPO LPO 1.6T 3.2T PAGE 33 Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001201402019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)2019-2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0246810122019 2020 2021 2022 2023归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)2019-20235.3:2022Q2 2023Q1 SiP FP DFB EML VCSEL PD APD RTXM700-204 PAM4 212.5 Gb/s EML 1600G ospf-xd MSA AI AOC TAP PD,PAGE 34 Wind 2019-2023 Q3 2019-2023 Q3-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%010203040506070802019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1-Q3营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%012345672019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1-Q3归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)5.4 FPGA NAND MCU AES ECC/RSA MCU MCU FM33LG0 xxA ARM 32bit MCU 256KB FLASH 32KB RAM 12bit SAR-ADC CAN2.0B LIN AEC-Q100 RFID RFID ISO/IEC 18000-6C GB/T29768-2013 SM7 FM38025T 32.768 kHz/TVs/PAGE 35 Wind 2019-2023 2019-2023-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05101520253035402019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-4-20246810122019 2020 2021 2022 2023归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)5.5-5G 3 2023MWC 5G+TAN+QKD 5G 5G TAN+TAN TAN TAN+PAGE 36 Wind 2019-2023 Q3 2019-2023 Q3-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503003504004505002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1-Q3营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%024681012141618202019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1-Q3归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)5G 5.6 IDC VPN 20 RCPMIS 2019 C PAGE 37 2019-2023 2019-2023 Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%90951001051101151201252019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业总收入(亿元)同比(%)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52019 2020 2021 2022 2023归母净利润(亿元)同比(%)PAGE 38 2018-2020 2020-2021 iFind 2020 2021 2022 2021 2023 4 2023 2023 2023 PAGE 39/12 A 300 1 20%2 10%20%3-10%10%4 10%2-10%10%3-10%PAGE 40报告编号:240418190229