20240407_招商证券_食品饮料行业专题： 历史上中外资配置食饮的几次分歧_13页.pdf

|2024 04 07|2024 04 07/ROE EPS&ESG A ROE EPS ESG 1 2 3 ESG 22EPS 23EPS 23PE PB 600519.SH 2154.5 49.93 59.49 28.8 10.0 000858.SZ 600.1 6.88 7.67 20.1 4.9 600809.SH 309.5 6.64 8.74 29.0 11.6 000568.SZ 283.5 7.04 9.02 21.3 7.3 603288.SH 214.4 1.11 1.09 35.5 7.8 600887.SH 176.1 1.48 1.64 16.9 3.4 600600.SH 110.2 2.72 3.13 25.8 4.0%139 2.7 5556.2 7.2 5227.9 7.6%1m 6m 12m 5.1-11.0-23.2 4.3-7.7-10.4 1 3.31 2024-04-01 2 2024-03-25 3 3.24 2024-03-24 S1090518090005 S1090523010003-40-30-20-10010Apr/23 Jul/23 Nov/23 Mar/24(%)食品饮料 沪深300 2 A.3.3.4.5 1 18-19.7 2/.8 1 20H2 22H1 23H2.8 2 21.9 3 19.9.10.11 1.3 2.4 3.5 4&pe-ttm.7 5.9 6&%.10 7&.11.1 1%.3 2&.4 3 vs%.5 4.6 1ZFUwPsPtQoPpRtQrMoRmNbR8QbRtRmMoMmQjMrRsOjMmMzRaQqRnRuOpPtRxNoNrR 3 A&ROE EPS 1%沪 深港 通持股 比例 18-22 营收 CAGR 18-22 净利润 CAGR CAGR 13-22 营收CAGR 13-22 净利润 CAGR 22 年净利率 ROE PE-TTM 7.2 15.9 18.3 17.0 16.8 50.5 36.2 28.8 20.4 7.4 11.3 12.9 24.7 8.6 22.1 13.8 11.3 22.1 30.0-31.6 28.6 30.1 5.3 19.6 22.5 10.5 10.4 36.1 19.3 20.3 11.8 4.9 1.8 6.6 12.8 13.0 19.2 8.6 13.1 12.6 9.5 11.4 18.6 7.7 18.3 16.4 9.3 8.3 16.3 11.8 16.2 6.0 16.9 15.0 6.1 9.0 4.0 14.6 13.7 18.4 9.0 67.9 14.8 17.4 15.8 18.8 25.2 12.1 14.3 26.8 6.5 14.0 14.7 12.9 17.5 9.2 13.1 26.0 iFinD ROE 5 10%21H2 A 12.5%17%1 Wind ESG 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002016-06-292016-08-302016-11-102017-01-132017-03-222017-06-052017-08-032017-10-102017-12-082018-02-122018-04-252018-06-292018-08-302018-11-092019-01-152019-03-222019-05-312019-08-022019-10-102019-12-102020-02-202020-04-242020-07-032020-09-022020-11-112021-01-132021-03-222021-05-312021-08-022021-10-122021-12-132022-02-212022-04-272022-07-052022-09-022022-11-102023-01-132023-03-222023-05-312023-08-022023-10-102023-12-112024-02-21占 自 由 流通股本(%)占流通A 股(%)(计算)收盘价 4 2%所属国 家 13-22 净利 润 CAGR 22 年净利率 ROE PE-TTM 16.4 29.0 17.3 63.7 LVMH 15.2 17.8 15.0 25.9 Monster 13.4 18.9 21.4 38.0 16.8 57.5 25.5 30.0 Wind ROE 50%ROE 2 Wind A 23 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002016-06-292016-08-262016-11-032017-01-042017-03-092017-05-172017-07-172017-09-122017-11-152018-01-162018-03-212018-05-282018-07-262018-09-212018-11-292019-01-312019-04-082019-06-132019-08-122019-10-162019-12-122020-02-202020-04-222020-06-242020-08-252020-10-302020-12-292021-03-042021-05-102021-07-092021-09-062021-11-152022-01-132022-03-182022-05-262022-07-262022-09-222022-11-252023-02-022023-03-312023-06-072023-08-072023-10-112023-12-082024-02-08占 自 由 流通股本(%)占流通A 股(%)(计算)收盘价9Boa3icl54N8peK2zSph+siCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaTB5J5ITRicnLiFPheHLi1 5 30 x ROE 3 vs%13-22 营收CAGR 13-22 净利润CAGR 22 年 净 利率 ROE PE-TTM 13.7 17.8 24.4 16.1 37.8 6.2 15.8 7.5 10.5 36.6 Wind ROE 1 2 3 3 iFinD 1 18,”6 285 2 18 469.1-896.80.01.02.03.04.05.06.0-1000.0-500.00.0500.01000.01500.02015-01-302015-04-302015-07-312015-10-302016-01-292016-04-292016-07-292016-10-312017-01-262017-04-282017-07-312017-10-312018-01-312018-04-272018-07-312018-10-312019-01-312019-04-302019-07-312019-10-312020-01-232020-04-282020-07-312020-10-302021-01-292021-04-302021-07-302021-10-292022-01-282022-04-292022-07-292022-10-312023-01-312023-04-282023-07-312023-10-312024-01-31净买入额(亿元,CNY)美债收益率 线性(净买入额(亿元,CNY)6 11-12 11 11 3 19 4 2 6 4 20H2”20&(pe-ttm48x)7 8-9 348 5 3.5 11 2 5 21 21 35-70 x 2 21 1000 H2 6 22 22 3 2%4%2.3 1.7 11”20”1 18Q2 18 年底 19 年初 20H2 21 年 22H1 22 年底 23H2 1.5 2.5 11 2.8 3.3 4 5 3.5 2 2 2.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 7 894 5 2.7 1.6 pe-ttm 25x 15x 18x 50 x 35-70 x 30 x 22x 27x 3%3%2.7%2.4%0.5%1%1%1.5%2%4%3.84.3%3.5%4%7 18Q2 18 年底 19 年初 20H2 21 年 22H1 22 年底 23H2 IMF IMF 6.6%IMF 6.2%6.3%IMF(1%)IMF 2021 8%IMF 0.8pct-1.1pcts 3.3%IMF 2023 5%5.4%IMF 0.2pct 3%5.2%-+/-+-/Wind IMF+4&pe-ttm Wind 1 18-19 50%1.1 2.7 H2 6-8%11-12 2942 2 10 4-5 11-12 895 630 5 500 25%6 284 18 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.00500000001000000001500000002000000002500000003000000003500000004000000004500000005000000002016-12-052017-02-102017-04-122017-06-202017-08-162017-10-192017-12-152018-02-222018-04-262018-06-282018-08-272018-11-022019-01-042019-03-112019-05-162019-07-162019-09-112019-11-152020-01-162020-03-232020-05-282020-07-292020-09-242020-12-012021-01-292021-04-082021-06-102021-08-102021-10-192021-12-152022-02-212022-04-252022-06-282022-08-252022-10-312022-12-292023-03-062023-05-102023-07-112023-09-062023-11-132024-01-12系 统 持 股量(股)PE-TTM 8 1 18Q2 18 300 13.3x,30 x/225/100/CAC40/DAX 35/16/12/16/14 30%2 or IMF 2018-2019 3.9%2018/2019 2.5%/2.2%4.9%/5.1%/2.9%/2.4%/1.5%/1.1%/6.6%/7.4%10 IMF 2018 2019 3.7%0.2/0.2%1 6.6%18 3/11 4 2019 2/1 20H2 22H1 23H2 20H2 22H1 300/20H2 11 22H1 23H2 IMF 2023/5.2%2021 1 global peer 2 9&1 20 8 pe-ttm 48x 9 11 2 22 3 3 23 5 3.5%4%22 60%pe-ttm 30 x/5 Wind 2 21 21 35-70 x 2 21 1000 H2 3 19 2019 A ROE 2020 19 18 11 0.0020000.0040000.0060000.0080000.00100000.00120000.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002014-03-282014-06-202014-09-122014-12-052015-02-272015-05-222015-08-142015-11-062016-01-292016-04-292016-07-222016-10-212017-01-132017-04-072017-06-302017-09-222017-12-222018-03-162018-06-082018-08-312018-11-302019-03-012019-05-242019-08-162019-11-082020-02-072020-04-302020-07-242020-10-162021-01-082021-04-022021-06-252021-09-172021-12-102022-03-112022-06-022022-08-262022-11-252023-02-242023-05-192023-08-112023-11-102024-02-02市盈率TTM 危险值 中位数 机会值 指数点位 10 380.59 10 2646.41 ESG 21 9.8%23 5.5%19 6&%Wind iFinD/23 11.5%/3.3%/2.5%/1.7%/1.3%21 9000 20 1239+28.5%25.6 22 5.39.85.50.02.04.06.08.010.012.0重仓持股占流通股比例 沪深港通持股比例 线性(重 仓 持 股占流通股比例)11 7&iFinD A ROE EPS ESG 1 2 3 050100150200250300350050,000,000100,000,000150,000,000200,000,000250,000,000300,000,000350,000,000400,000,000450,000,000500,000,0002016-12-052017-02-102017-04-122017-06-202017-08-162017-10-192017-12-152018-02-222018-04-262018-06-282018-08-272018-11-022019-01-042019-03-112019-05-162019-07-162019-09-112019-11-152020-01-162020-03-232020-05-282020-07-292020-09-242020-12-012021-01-292021-04-082021-06-102021-08-102021-10-192021-12-152022-02-212022-04-252022-06-282022-08-252022-10-312022-12-292023-03-062023-05-102023-07-112023-09-062023-11-132024-01-12系 统 持 股量(股)收盘价22,12 ESG 1 2 3 4 1 3.31 2024-04-01 2 2024-03-25 3 3.24 2024-03-24 4 3.17 2024-03-17 13 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%