20240406_国泰君安_保险行业上市险企2023年年报综述：投资拖累盈利分红彰显韧性_27页.pdf

Table_MainInfo Table_Title 2024.04.06 2023()()()021-38676647 021-38674943 021-38038619 X S0880515050001 S0880521120003 S0880524030003 NBV EV 24Q1 NBV Table_Summary 1 NBV 23 NBV 69.6%24.8%19.2%19.1%11.9%7.8%0.7%2 COR 23 COR 97.7%,+0.8pt 97.8%,+1.2pt 98.4%,+1.2pt 98.7%-0.7pt 100.7%+1.1pt 3 4 23 44.1%13.0%-10.2%-15.6%-16.8%-22.8%-27.1%-30.7%-59.5%5 EV EV 1 NBV NBV 2 3 4 24 NBV 24 NBV 2024 NBV 20.1%17.4%9.5%4.9%NBV Table_Invest Table_subIndustry Table_DocReport EV 2024.03.20 2024.03.17 NBV 2024.02.28 24Q1 2024.02.22 2024.01.30 Table_industryInf o 2 of 27 1.3 1.1.NBV COR.3 1.1.1.NBV EV.3 1.1.1.1.NBV.3 1.1.1.2.EV.5 1.1.2.6 1.1.2.1.7 1.1.2.2.COR 8 1.2.10 1.2.1.10 1.2.2.10 1.2.3.11 1.3.12 1.4.14 2.EV.14 2.1.NBV.15 2.1.1.NBV 16 2.1.2.NBV 20 2.2.21 2.3.23 2.4.24 3.24Q1 NBV.24 4./.25 5.26 0YAZuNnQmPmNqOnOsPqPqRbRcM8OpNrRnPrNlOpPsOfQoOpQ7NpOrRvPnNtQxNrRnN 3 of 27 1.1.1.NBV COR 1.1.1.NBV EV 1.1.1.1.NBV 2023 23 10.9%9.2%8.6%4.7%4.3%3.2%1.7%23 44.6%18.7%14.1%10.5%2.9%2.4%-4.6%23 59.0%51.2%37.9%14.2%10.5%5.3%4.6%79.3%49.3%45.3%9.0%3.6%=3.6%-10.4%1 2023 2 3 2022 4 4.3%10.9%3.2%1.7%8.6%4.7%9.2%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002022 2023 14.1%44.6%2.4%2.9%10.5%18.7%-4.6%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002022 2023 4 of 27 2023 2023-5.1%-8.8%-15.2%-21.3%-22.0%-24.7%-40.0%2023 23 23.7%,-0.4pt 17.2%,-0.3pt 15.9%,-2.8pt 13.3%,1.7pt 10.8%,+2.1pt 7.1%+1.4pt 6.8%,+1.2pt 5 23 6 23 NBV 51.2%59.0%14.2%4.6%10.5%5.3%37.9%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002022 2023 49.3%79.3%3.6%3.6%9.0%45.3%-10.4%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0002022 2023-22.0%-5.1%-24.7%-21.3%-8.8%-40.0%-15.2%-45.0%-40.0%-35.0%-30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.02022 2023 17.2%23.7%13.3%6.8%7.1%15.9%10.8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2022 2023MrHejWcqu7HTBQb5HYaJFMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfY+2wUdskgYjgwgIGBgUr5Y 5 of 27 23 2023 NBV 69.6%24.8%19.2%19.1%11.9%7.8%0.7%7 NBV 1.1.1.2.EV EV 2023 EV EV 3.6%2.4%1.1%1.0%-2.0%-2.2%-5.0%8 2023 11.9%36.2%19.1%24.8%69.6%0.7%19.2%30.5%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0002022 2023 2.4%-5.0%1.0%-2.0%-2.2%1.1%3.6%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000002022 2023 6 of 27 1 EV 2.4%-2.4%1.9%-2.0%-2.2%2.4%2.8%6.8%4.8%6.2%7.7%7.3%6.1%5.4%3.0%2.5%2.5%1.2%3.9%3.6%4.6%-0.1%-0.4%0.5%1.3%-4.1%0.0%-0.1%-3.3%-5.4%-4.2%-5.3%-6.4%-7.8%-5.1%-3.0%-1.5%-3.2%-5.7%-3.0%0.3%-0.3%-1.1%-3.1%-1.1%-1.3%0.0%-1.2%-1.8%0.1%0.7%1.2%0.2%0.0%1.4%0.0%1.1.2.23 23 142.4%-15.6%-29.1%-40.2%-292.5%9 2023 23 101.89-29.1%-41.8%-3.0%2 23 2022 2023 14,634 8,623-41.1%-41.8%2,662 2,233-16.1%-3.0%-176 1,007-672.2%8.2%-2,903-2,299-20.8%4.2%-680-661-2.8%0.1%-29.1%-292.5%-15.6%-40.2%142.4%-300%-100%100%300%500%700%900%1100%-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000 2022 2023 7 of 27 828 1,286 55.3%3.2%14,364 10,189-29.1%-29.1%23 116.7%-25.8%-35.3%-42.9%-275.0%11.8%10.2%7.7%6.5%3.0%3 2023 1.1.2.1.2023 2023 24.7%11.4%9.6%6.7%6.3%1.4%-0.7%23+5.3%2023 6.2%6.1%5.6%=5.6%5.3%-2.0%23 19.3%14.9%8.1%7.5%7.4%-8.7%8 of 27 10 2023 11 12 13 2023 1.1.2.2.COR 23 COR 2023 2023 97.7%,+0.8pt 97.8%,+1.2pt 98.4%,+1.2pt 98.7%-0.7pt 100.7%+1.1pt COR COR 23 65.0%+1.3pt 69.1%,+1.1pt 70.6%+1.2pt 71.5%+0.2pt 23 1.4%11.4%6.3%1.42%9.57%24.74%6.7%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2022 20236.2%5.6%5.3%-2.0%6.1%5.6%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2022 20230.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2.82.933.13.23.33.4-8.7%19.3%7.4%7.5%14.9%8.1%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2022 2023 9 of 27 23 27.2%0pt 28.6%,-0.3pt 29.2%+0.9pt 33.7%,-2.0pt 14 2023 15 23 23/23 23/45.5%42.3%37.0%35.1%30.1%16 2023/23 1.1pt 6.0%99.60%96.90%96.70%97.20%99.40%100.7%97.7%97.8%98.4%98.7%94.00%95.00%96.00%97.00%98.00%99.00%100.00%101.00%2022 202371.3%71.5%68.0%69.1%69.4%70.6%63.7%65.0%28.3%29.20%28.9%28.6%27.2%27.2%35.7%33.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 45.5%42.3%37.0%35.1%30.1%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2022 2023 10 of 27 23 11.9%1.3%7.0%7.4%17 18 PPT 1.2.1.2.1.2023 15.4%14.9%12.0%11.9%11.4%11.3%9.0%19 2023 1.2.2.-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%12.0%9.0%11.3%15.4%11.4%14.9%11.9%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0002022 2023 11 of 27 22 23 4.5%-0.6pt 4.2%-0.5pt 4.0%-0.3pt=4.0%+0.1pt 3.8%-0.2pt 3.6%-0.3pt 3.4%-1.2pt 2023 3.3%,-1.3pt=3.3%,-1.6pt 3.0%+0.6pt 2.7%-1.3pt=2.7%1.5pt 2.6%-1.5pt 1.8%-2.5pt 20 2023 21 2023 1.2.3.2023 2023 23 70.9%+3.5pt 70.1%+6.6pt 64.5%-0.2pt 63.9%+2.6pt=63.9%+3.5pt 54.2%+1.8pt 54.0%+4.4pt 23+3.77%4.20%4.00%3.40%4.50%3.56%4.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%2022 20233.94%2.40%4.10%4.30%4.60%1.21%4.90%2.68%3.00%2.60%1.80%3.30%2.66%3.30%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%2022 2023 12 of 27 22.7%-0.8pt 19.1%-1.4pt 15.1%+0.1pt 10.3%-1.2pt 8.5%-0.5pt 6.0%-4.1pt 5.7%-1.4pt 2023 23+14.5%-2.1pt 14.3%-0.3pt 12.0%,-2.8pt 11.5%+0.3pt 11.4%-2.3pt 11.2%-0.2pt 11.1%-0.9pt 16.2%+1.6pt 12.7%+1.4pt 9.0%-1.0pt 8.0%-2.3pt 3.9%+0.1pt 3.8%+0.4pt=3.8%,-0.2pt 22 2023 1.3.22 23 IFRS 17&IFRS 9 22 IFRS 9 2023 44.1%13.0%-10.2%-15.6%-16.8%-22.8%-27.1%-30.7%-59.5%23 2023 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 13 of 27 2023 23 23 12.5%-0.8%-10.0%-18.0%-41.9%23 22 IFRS 9 23+5.8%-25.1%-33.3%-38.8%-56.7%4 2023-10.0%-0.8%12.5%-41.9%-18.0%9.4%43.9%44.8%-41.1%138.3%-15.7%-41.9%-31.8%-4.4%-156.6%0.0%0.0%-0.3%0.0%0.0%-0.2%-0.1%-0.3%0.0%0.3%-3.4%-3.2%0.1%3.5%-4.1%-0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%4.0%5.8%-38.8%-56.7%-33.3%-25.1%2.3%155.9%184.5%1.2%115.8%-30.7%-22.8%-27.1%-59.5%44.1%-10.2%-16.8%13.0%-15.6%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2022 2023 14 of 27-1.6%-188.5%-262.2%-106.1%-121.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%-0.2%0.1%25.1%-31.2%-36.0%-21.8%-36.8%0.5%0.0%-0.1%0.0%-0.3%-21.7%30.5%31.2%76.1%30.1%-1.5%0.3%-8.0%-4.2%-13.6%0.0%-0.7%32.1%23.1%6.4%2.5%-5.4%1.8%-1.4%-5.6%-15.8%11.6%6.0%-1.9%10.6%-20.0%-28.0%-38.2%-77.0%-32.4%-2.8%1.0%7.5%17.6%22.2%-22.8%-27.1%-30.7%-59.5%-10.2%1.4.23 23 1 2 3 23 33.3%55.4%15.4%17.4%2.3%44.3%1.6%62.4%0.4%51.4%0%36.0%-6.0%30.3%-12.2%57.6%-21.3%30.4%24 23 25 23 2.EV-12.2%0.4%0.0%-21.3%15.4%-6.0%20.0%5.0%2.3%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.002022 2023 14.4%7.8%3.2%-3.9%-16.0%0.2%23.6%1.5%4.4%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%2022 2023 15 of 27 EV 23 EV 23 EV 1 EV 2020 EV 2 3 4 26 EV 5 23 EV 2.1.NBV 2023 NBV 2023 NBV 2020 NBV 23 NBV 97.0%+0.5pt 94.0%,-1.3pt 82.7%,-7.9pt 81.9%,+2.3pt 16 of 27 81.5%,-5.6pt 70.4%,-14.1pt 36.7%,-1.5pt 23 NBV 59.5%-4.0pt 27.3%,+13.7pt 16.9%,+7.6pt 13.5%,-0.8pt 13.3%,+4.8pt 9.3%,+2.1pt 6.0%,+1.3pt 27 2023 NBV 29 2023 NBV 2.1.1.NBV 23 NBV 6 23 NBV 2023 18 19 4.7%6.0%7.1%9.3%9.3%16.9%14.3%13.5%13.6%27.3%8.5%13.3%59.5%55.5%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 17 of 27 30 23 31 2023 23 93.3%74.2%69.8%65.9%54.4%31.2%NBV 23 NBV 108.7%89.5%70.4%44.5%41.4%18.8%17.0%23 2023 46.3%6051 9813/+39.2%+37.3%7402/+45.2%2411/32 2023 33 2023 NBV=NBV/12 NBV=NBV/12 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2020 2021 2022 2023 15.6%93.3%54.4%74.2%65.9%31.2%69.8%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002022 2023 18.8%70.4%44.5%108.7%89.5%17.0%41.9%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002022 2023 18 of 27 34 23 35 23+0.6pt 44.0%+0.5pt 7.1%+9.8pt 51.8%36 23 7 2021 37%-8.3%-0.6%22.5%39.2%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0200040006000800010000120002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 41366051010002000300040005000600070002022 20230.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2022 2023 19 of 27 37 2021 38 23 65 15.4%WHO Wind+NBV 2023 73%+37%+36%2023 1.5 1pt 3.9/39 NBV 40 37%16%15%13%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%15.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 20 of 27 8 2023 4 8“+50 22 40 1000 2024 14 13 30 54 8 NA;“”NA NA 2.1.2.NBV 23 NBV NBV 2023 NBV 115.6%82.3%77.7%61.4%17.6%11.1%-17.1%2023 69.8%53.2%17.9%10.5%3.6%=3.6%-17.1%2023 108.1%65.0%24.1%13.5%5.4%4.7%-29.7%9 23 NBV 21 of 27 NBV+2021 300 2023 2500 41 2.2.23 1 EV 2 10 23 0500100015002000250030002021 2022 2023 22 of 27 13 25 23 42 13 43 25 44%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23 of 27 2.3.23 EV 2020 23 EV 11 23 23 150bp 9.5%200bp 10.0%8.0%11.0%9.0%23 NBV 50bp-24.2%-29.2%-36.3%-43.5%-63.3%-73.3%-86.0%12 23 45 NBV 24 of 27 50bp 2.4.2015 GDP 2022-2023 5.0%4.5%2022-2023 13 3.24Q1 NBV 24 NBV-24.2%-29.2%-36.3%-43.5%-63.3%-73.3%-86.0%-100.0%-90.0%-80.0%-70.0%-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%25 of 27 24 NBV 2024 N BV 20.1%17.4%9.5%4.9%14 24 NBV 2024 NBV 9.5%4.9%20.1%17.4%4./NBV 15:EVPS 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E P/EV 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 77.89 76.34 82.83 90.01 97.97 0.52 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.41 81.92 80.29 86.03 91.83 97.73 0.37 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.41 54.01 55.04 59.34 64.22 69.74 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.58 43.54 44.60 48.52 52.91 57.70 0.66 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.70 H 2.76 2.80 3.11 3.51 3.99 H 0.84 0.83 0.75 0.66 10.16 H 55.11 56.51 60.04 65.31 71.13 H 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.57 H 8.80 9.05 9.86 10.74 11.67 H 0.79 0.77 0.71 0.65 3.47 H 5.85 5.92 6.35 6.97 7.69 H 1.16 1.14 1.07 0.97 5.26 H 16.44 16.44 18.03 19.67 21.36 H 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.46 1.90 EPS 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E P/E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 4.58 4.70 6.47 8.14 9.07 8.84 8.61 6.26 4.98 4.46 6.89 2.79 5.39 6.35 7.60 4.43 10.93 5.66 4.81 4.02 3.89 2.83 3.44 4.24 5.28 6.08 8.33 6.85 5.57 4.47 26 of 27 1.14 0.75 0.91 1.11 1.25 25.45 38.68 31.74 25.96 23.18 H 0.57 0.51 0.65 0.73 0.85 H 4.04 4.51 3.59 3.16 2.73 H 1.20 1.72 1.90 2.20 2.62 H 5.84 4.05 3.67 3.17 2.66 H 0.39 0.32 0.41 0.48 0.56 H 17.86 21.54 17.21 14.60 12.52 H 0.02 0.33 0.36 0.39 0.43 H 282.83 20.41 18.80 17.25 15.68 H 1.20 1.10 1.35 1.50 1.67 H 7.96 8.63 7.09 6.35 5.71 H-0.37 0.62 0.87 1.12 1.19 H-24.90 14.76 10.50 8.17 7.68 BVPS 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E P/B 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 46.97 49.37 51.84 55.48 59.70 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.73 0.68 31.40 33.68 36.84 40.30 43.71 0.97 0.91 0.83 0.76 0.70 20.42 25.94 27.64 30.60 34.29 1.16 0.91 0.85 0.77 0.69 15.43 16.28 16.92 17.69 18.57 1.87 1.77 1.71 1.63 1.56 H 5.04 5.48 6.04 6.65 7.37 H 0.46 0.42 0.38 0.35 0.31 H 23.35 26.43 23.12 24.44 26.01 H 0.30 0.26 0.30 0.29 0.27 H 5.05 5.26 5.54 5.87 6.26 H 1.38 1.33 1.26 1.19 1.11 H 3.23 3.61 3.74 3.85 3.97 H 2.09 1.88 1.81 1.76 1.71 H 9.44 10.40 11.13 11.94 12.84 H 1.01 0.92 0.86 0.80 0.74 H 6.08 6.47 7.30 7.71 8.09 H 1.50 1.41 1.25 1.18 1.13 2024 4 3 5.1+2 27 of 27 本 公 司 具有 中国 证监 会核 准 的证券投资 咨询 业务资格 分 析 师 声明 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。免责声明 本报告仅供国泰 君安证券股份有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公 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