康复医疗行业深度报告：政策+需求双轮驱动下的优质赛道.pdf
1 / 36 2021 09 24 - -2021.9.1 - -2021.6.17 + S0790520070001 S0790121020007 DRGs 1-1.5 20% 0% 19% 38% 57% 75% 94% 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 3002 / 36 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 1.3 . 7 1.4 . 11 1.4.1 . 11 1.4.2 . 13 1.4.3 . 17 1.4.4 . 18 2 . 19 3 . 21 3.1 . 21 3.2 . 23 4 / . 25 5 . 28 5.1 . 29 5.2 . 31 5.3 3 . 32 6 . 34 1 . 4 2 . 4 3 2021 . 5 4 . 5 5 . 7 6 . 7 7 2016-2019 15% . 9 8 . 9 9 . 9 10 2016-2018 1% . 10 11 2016-2018 . 10 12 FIM 13 5 7 . 14 13 . 19 14 100 . 19 15 . 21 16 . 21 17 . 22 18 2019 50 . 22 19 EHC . 263 / 36 20 . 28 21 2015 . 29 22 . 30 23 ( ) . 30 24 . 31 25 2015 2020 . 31 26 CAGR13.39% . 32 27 . 32 28 . 33 1 . 6 2 . 6 3 . 7 4 . 8 5 . 9 6 2015 . 10 7 . 11 8 . 12 9 . 14 10 . 15 11 2018 20.37% . 18 12 2 . 20 13 . 23 14 . 24 15 . 25 16 . 28 17 5 . 33 18 . 34 19 . 344 / 36 1 1.1 90% 30% 6% 5% 1 activities of daily living, ADL 2019 1403 ADL 73.75% ICU 2020 2019 3.09% 16.97% 2011-2018 109 583 CAGR26.9% 2018 + 5258.5 7.5% 1109 7.6% 1 2 1 J . 2001,16(02):246-246. 2469 3054 3415 3760 3963 4295 4547 4863 5268 23.7% 11.8% 10.1% 5.4% 8.4% 5.9% 6.9% 8.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 康复医学科门急诊人次（ 万人次 ） YOY 96 129 166 205 244 290 346 395.5 420 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY5 / 36 3 2021 F 1.2 4 2020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F YOY6 / 36 2000 1600 50% 20% 1% 3163 900 1 2019 60 2.54 4000 - 2006 2297 ( 27.69%) 2010 8502 2006 27.69% 2010 2354 2019 1043 2019 0-15 2.49 3000 2015 28.1 2010 3.8 1600 - 2012 2.6 1000 - 2017 1200 2017 (PT)142.7 (OT)63.3 29.3 6.3 2018 300 - 2017 2.9 3 1% 2020 2 4500 10% 50% 60 50 135 675 2500 42% 80% 35 100 368 700 3000 1% 10% 20 90 5 54 1600 2% 50% 20 80 5 128 1000 5% 50% 60 200 60 600 1200 20% 50% 30 350 254 630 300 20% 80% 20 300 36 144 29000 0% 2% 20 200 35 232 898 31637 / 36 1.3 3 80 7.25 5/10 0.4/10 82% 7.30% 2021 9 24 : =0.155:1 2015-2019 55% 60%-65% 5 6 2019 2 NCIS 7544 + 2147 1038 853 2 NCIS 2018 7000 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 20198 / 36 28.46% 2018 2018 74.36% 18.23% 26 3 2011 1000 2%-5% 500 2.5% 248 154 253 107 4 100% 74.36% 100% 18.23% 1000 248 ( 17.77%) 500 154 ( 3.29%) 2%-5% 253 ( 18.12%) 2.5% 107 ( 2.29%) 2019 2016-2019 15% 2015-2019 100 43% 54% 2012 300 100 100-300 300 2019 44.76% 9.49% 383 2021 6 16 300 1 31 300 178 182 383 2015-2019 63.8% 77.29 / 36 7 2016-2019 15% 8 9 5 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 yoy yoy yoy 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0-49 50-99 100-199 200-299 300-399 400-499 500-799 800+ -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 200 400 600 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 yoy yoy10 / 36 2019 2018 24-48h 8.69% 24-48h 11.79% 15.85% 2016-2018 1% 2016 7.22% 2018 9.02% 3 14% 6 2015 10 696.4 25% 8.1 19.7 435.5 45 382.4 62% 6.6 6.5 96.1 56 67.7 14% 1.9 2.5 17.2 10 2016-2018 1% 11 2016-2018 2019 2019 3 115 2 111 96.5% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 2016 2017 2018 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 2018 16-31d 2-15d11 / 36 2015-2020 2016 2020 0.5 2030 70 2019 27 43 2022 10 6 10 2025 10 8 12 2019 5 2019 6 2022 3.83 8.12 7 2019 27 70 43 4.64 8.47 3.83 6.00 14.12 8.12 2016 2020 0.25 0.5 0.3 2019 1897 56.35% 80.81% 54.14% 50% 1.4 1.4.1 2021 6 16 5 2912 / 36 2021 3 8 2009.3 2011.4 2011.8 14 2012.2 (2015-2020 ) 2015.3 2015.9 (2016-2020 ) 2016.9 2017.2 2017.4 2019.11 32 195 2021.3 2021.6 6 16 8 3113 / 36 1.4.2 FRGs 1965-1982 1983-2002 4 DRGs 1983 DRGs DRGs DRGs DRGs DRGs 10 5 2002 FRGs 1984 Uniform Data System For Medical Rehabilitation, UDSMR 1993 Harada 9 33 FIM 1994 Stineman UDSMR FIM FIM-FRCs HCFA FIM-FRCs 2000 FRGs 2002 1 FRGs DRGs FRGs DRGs DRGs FRGs 6 4 5 / 7 2009 24 814 / 36 12 FIM 13 5 7 UDSMR FIM 9 1965-1982 1982-2002 DRGs DRGs 6000 40,000 2002 FRGs DRGs FRGs - FRGs15 / 36 DRGs 1 2010 9 6 9 2016 3 9 20 20 3 8:12 10 2010 8 +1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 12 +8 1 3 14 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 (ADI) 616 / 36 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ADL 16 PARQ 17 18 19 20 6 2 DRGs 2017 6 2009 2014 23.6% 11.9% 2014 33.4% 66.6% 7 450 1800 1000 8 7 8 DRGs 2020 12 417 / 36 DRGs DRGs (CHS-DRG) DRGs DRGs CN-DRGs 2016 9 DRGs 10 DRGs BJ-DRGs 2014 11 76 / 12 DRGs DRGs 2020 7 = 60 4 2020 1 60 DRGs UDSMR FRGs DRGs FRGs 1.4.3 2019 32% 2018 20.37% 9 2016 1 1 -2018 12 31 60 10 10 DRGs 2020 21 1 11 DRGs 2016 ICU 12 10 DRGs 2019 20 618 / 36 6 16 11 2018 20.37% % % 24737 4864 19.66 9911 40.07 13906 3035 21.83 6532 46.97 8008 1319 16.47 4506 56.27 12162 2194 18.04 5843 48.04 11222 2286 20.37 5567 49.61 2019 30 40 3 2020 3 5% 2018-2020 1.4.4 2012 0.3 2001 2017 400 2017 2019 16019 / 36 2 19 100 9 2000 500-1000 2 1221 647 13 14 100 2020 2020 2-3 1-1.5 6000-8000 1000-2000 0.5-1 1-1.5 2017 11 20 2018 10 8 11 26 2019 1 7.72% 12 76.85% 2020 3 10 9 88.59% 72.80% 0 100 200 300 400 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 10020 / 36 2020 84.42% 2020 175% 2019 15.69 41.24 13 2020 37.91% 16.13% 83% 38% 15% 13% 9% 3% 70%+ 2019 27% 2020 37% 2019 20% 2020 25% 13% 12 2 2017 11 -2018 12 2018 12 - 2020 12 Wind 2015 6 2016 2016 2017 1-6 -1,270.69 622.67 3 2,030.69 2,660.36 3,517.51 2019-2020 17.01% 19.54% 13 2020 10 2020 312 298*9/12+353*3/1221 / 36 15 Wind 2017-2018 3 3.1 3 2.28 1.87 1.65 2016 2020 0.5 14 16 Wind 2020 14 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 7000022 / 36 17 Wind 2020 2019 50 20 6 5 5 5 42% 18 2019 50 50 68% 10 8 20 15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 723 / 36 50 50 3 1 6 3 1 2 2 5 4 200-600 1 100 3 3 160 50 3 1000 7 500 13 512 1100 365 950 600 1000 252 700 100 600 1829 560 800 160 300 600 - 500 - 600 422 250 ( ) 485 661 ( ) 129 350 3.2 1 50 16 16 1 224 / 36 50 16 15 50 14 6 3 1064 425 / 16 15 16 .25 / 36 4 2019 4.6 0.3 2.5 50 2014 15 7 2001 2014 12 19 20 28 39 4 / 1 29 + 2 3 EHC Encompass Health Corporation SEC Selected Medical26 / 36 Corporation KHL Kindred Healthcare Corporation 3 Encompass Health 1984 Richard M. Scrushy 1993 3 National Medical Enterprise 28 45 2020 137 9505 SEC 1996 10 19 EHC Encompass Health Corporation 3 2012 6 2 11 5 17 50 5 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202027 / 36 4 3 5 6 40 18 6 WHO 2035 1290 VR 1828 / 36 20 2021 5 2014 6000 2015 2016 9 2020 7 16 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 422 15310.73 2992.19 20% 36.28 270 - 300 224 - 500 51229 / 36 600 377 - 300 3413.61 951.00 28% 1.71 308 6 161 1816.85 -1725.99 -95% 11.28 307 - 2020 5.1 1991 2015 - - 21 2015 5 1 2006 1530 / 36 2019 32 10 2 ICU 3 4 5 2020 22 23 ( ) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2018 2019 2020 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2018 2019 202031 / 36 24 5.2 2015 2021 5 9 300 25 2015 2020 30 1000 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 2018 2019 202032 / 36 MDT 5A + 26 CAGR13.39% 27 5.3 3 2020 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2017 2018 2019 2020 20.8% 20.0% 25.3% 25.6% 1.9% 8.0% 9.0% 5.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 8033 / 36 17 5 2019 1 23 23000 804 2019 5 8 27200 526 2019 1 24 324 100 2018 1 8 10000 308 3 1 2 20 3 28 2018 2018 985.76 2019 2019 5,415.36 2020 5 90% 6834 / 36 18 450 804 90% 100 300 43% 260 364 68% 480 324 44% 19 P/E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 300143.SZ 13.82 118.2 25.9 81.3 34.5 99.3 55.1 30.4 22.5 000516.SZ 10.84 111.2 31.7 585.3 40.4 546.2 411.2 60.3 42.9 601567.SH 15.58 -4.8 - - - 9.6 - - - 002004.SZ 8.67 5.1 - - - 16.8 - - - 600257.SH 7.02 103.2 - - - 663.3 - - - 002172.SZ 4.13 -8.0 - - - -5.1 - - - 300273.SZ 5.49 51.3 - - - 73.9 - - - 688626.SH 52.87 52.2 31.6 28.3 28.4 43.1 32.8 25.6 19.9 688580.SH 94.78 44.1 27.4 36.3 34.5 48.3 35.1 25.8 19.2 688389.SH 19.63 43.1 39.5 39.6 38.1 61.6 41.9 30.0 21.7 Wind 2021 9 23 2021-2023 P/E Wind 635 / 36 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50036 / 36 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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