DHL全球转运（英文版）.pdf

DHL Global Forwarding OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE DHL Global Forwarding - Excellence. Simply delivered. January 2021 publication date January 5th, 2021 TOPIC OF THE MONTH Strong cargo demand continues, equipment shortage worsening, schedule reliability deteriorating HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT MARKET OUTLOOK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK congestions at PODs in AU & NZ still ongoing. Blank sailings will continue in January but rates remain stable. Severe truck and chassis shortage coupled with port and terminal congestion especially NYC & Los Angeles. Strong decline in capacity. Space is very limited. Strong increase in rates due to GRI every 15 days like TPEB. AMLA AMNO, EURO, MENAT & SSA : Equipment shortages continue through the region, alongside with carriers exercising rigid free time guidelines as measures for quick box turn around. Sporadic increases announced as Peak Season Surcharge. Expected bottlenecks during February due to CNY blank sailings ripple effect. Carriers continue to control capacity through blank sailings in an effort to maintain higher freight rates and impose new surcharges. Short and long term negotiations are being scrutinized for increases. AMLA ASPA : Strong exports projected to continue through next couple of months, especially out of Brazil. Tight space situation continues to affect the market. Container imbalance impacting Latam region and freetime detention / demurrage. Maersk / Hamburg Sud continue to reposition voids from other regions into Brazil to meet the demands of reefers, which remains heated. In view of the current demand vs. available inventory scenario, carrier is working with priority list on the 40DC /HC releases. Some carriers will release 40HC no more than 7 days before cargos cut-off due to lack of equipment in all Brazilian ports. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 While the COVID-19 virus will stay with us, effective treatments and vaccines will be widely available to large segments of populations by mid-2021, facilitating a transition to the post- pandemic economy. The global economy will enter 2021 at a subdued growth rate and accelerate to a brisk pace in the second half. In 2021, the focus of investors and policymakers will shift from COVID-19 to the environment. Monetary policies will remain accommodative, and more central banks will lean towards the US Federal Reserves flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) policy. The global financial sector should avoid major crises in 2021 at least in advance economics but banking risks will rise. Finished goods prices will accelerate in 2021. The US economy will start 2021 slowly and accelerate in the second half. Europes 2021 annual growth rates will fall short of market consensus expectations. Mainland Chinas economy will accelerate to the strongest growth rate in recent years, but the rebound will wane. The US dollar should weaken in 2021 in a lagged response to the Feds sharp pivot to monetary accommodation in early 2020, an increase in investor risk tolerance, and a widening trade deficit. DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 8 Source: Global Executive Summary, IHS, Dec 2020 Economic Outlook & Demand Development Top 10 IHS Economic Predictions for 2021 NORTH AMERICA Incl. MEXICO LATIN AMERICA EUROPE Incl. MED FAR EAST INTRA ASIA excl. Oceania NORTH AMERICA Incl. MEXICO LATIN AMERICA 9 Source: Seabury Dec20 update 2.6 mTEU +3.9% 1.7 mTEU +4.6% 3.9 mTEU +3.5% 2.0 mTEU +3.5% 1.5 mTEU +3.9% 2.0 mTEU +3.5% 12.9 mTEU +3.7% 7.1 mTEU +2.6% 8.0 mTEU +2.9% 18.1 mTEU +3.9% 2.1 mTEU +3.3% 4.2 mTEU +4.1% 41.5 mTEU +3.6% GLOBAL CONTAINER TRADE 147.6 mTEU 2020e +3.7% CAGR 2021e-2024e MARKET VOLUME 2020 - 2024 DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 THE Alliance has published a first overview of its revised offering on the East West trades as from April 2021. The updated network includes the relaunch of the Far East North Europe FE4 service. Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, ONE and Yang Ming will revert to a set up of 5 Asia North Europe loops as was the case before the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. The most important changes on the Transpacific are the start of a new Far East US Gulf EC6 service and the upgrade of the Asia US East Coast EC1 from ships of 8,000 9,500 TEU to a fleet of 13,500 TEU. Except of these highlights the up-dated network will remain largely unchanged. MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and ONE are to extend by one week the rotation of their jointly operated Asia ECSA weekly service, branded respectively Ipanema, AS2 and SX1 to tackle delays created by congestion issues in Asian ports. The measure, valid for 13 weeks, will see a schedule sliding of seven days on the westbound leg. MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and ONE aim to revert to their proforma schedule as from the 2nd half of February. CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping Lines, Hapag-Lloyd and ONE are forming a new Vessel Sharing Agreement (VSA) covering the trade between North Europe, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent. The 4 carriers are to offer as from January 2021 two weekly loops with 8 x 8,500 TEU ships each. The new set up will replace the current IOS / EPIC 2 service and the shipping lines involvement in the IPAK / EPIC 1 / IOS 2 service, operated jointly by MSC. MSC is expected to continue the Europe Red Sea ISC IPAK service on its own by replacing the vessels from Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM with its own tonnage. ONE is to launch two North Europe East Med services in January as participant in the new CMA CGM NC Levant and New FEMEX loops which the French carrier was to start as standalone operations following the end of a cooperation with Sealand Europe. With its involvement on these loops ONE will for the first time offer direct services between North Europe, the Near East and Turkey. ONE is expected to provide one of the five vessels for the NC Levant, which it will brand as North Europe East Med Express (NEX) and take slots on the New FEMEX service which it will brand as North Europe Turkey Express (NTX). CAPACITY 1/3 DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 10 Source: Alphaliner, THE LOADSTAR, Dynaliners, carriers MSC has launched a new Transpacific North West Chinook service between China, South Korea and Canada. This allows MSC to remove Vancouver and Busan from the rotation of its standalone Santana loop which will become a dedicated Pacific South West service between China and California. The new Chinook service is expected to be a MSC standalone operation outside the scope of the carriers 2M Vessel Sharing Agreement with Maersk. The launch of a dedicated service to/from Vancouver and the streamlining of the Santana rotation will not only allow MSC to increase capacity on the Transpacific corridor, but should also improve schedule reliability as port activities are currently impacted by the exceptionally strong cargo demand. CMA CGM ends its weekly Asia West Africa “Round the Africa” service, a line launched in July 2020. The loop RTA was different from all other Asia West Africa services, since was routed via the Suez Canal on its westbound leg and via the Cape of Good Hope in the eastbound direction. Among other things the RTA provided a direct connection from Asia to Dakar and Freetown without any transshipment. CMA CGM meanwhile continues to connect Asia to West Africa via the Cape of Good Hope with five weekly services. Maersk has confirmed that the North Europe US East Coast TA4 / NEUATL4 service operated jointly with MSC under the framework of the 2M Vessel Sharing Agreement, is not to return until further notice. The fourth Transatlantic 2M loop was temporarily suspended in April due to a reduction in cargo demand related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This suspension was extended several times and was to last until the end of 2020. As the TA4 / NEUATL4 is not to return in January 2021, Maersk and MSC have decided to send their 2nd TA2 / NEUATL2 loop to Liverpool at the expense of Felixstowe. Hapag-Lloyd disclosed that is has ordered a set of six LNG-powered 23,500+ TEU container vessels at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) of South Korea. Hapag-Lloyds latest vessels class is planned for delivery between April and December 2023. With this order, the worlds fifth-largest container line has replenished its vessel pipeline which has been down to zero since its last delivery of new buildings in 2017. According to Hapag-Lloyd, the ships will operate on LNG, but have alternatively sufficient tank capacity to operate on conventional fuel to increase flexibility. CAPACITY 2/3 DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 11 Source: Alphaliner, THE LOADSTAR, Dynaliners, carriers ONE announced that it has entered into a procurement contract with the Japanese non-operating owner Shoei Kisen Kaisha to long-term charter six purpose-built megamax container ships for delivery in 2023 and 2024. The charters will run for periods of 15 years at an undisclosed rate. According to ONE, the ships will have a capacity of more than 24,000 TEU, which would make them the largest container ships in the world. Nevertheless, the vessels are expected to remain within the standard megamax footprint. ONEs vessel commitment is part of a coordinated effort with the carriers THEA partner Hapag-Lloyd. The new ships are earmarked for the Far East to Europe trade. CAPACITY 3/3 DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 12 Source: Alphaliner, THE LOADSTAR, Dynaliners, carriers Hapag-Lloyd lifts earnings forecast again due to better than expected trading conditions in the 4th quarter 2020. The carrier expects EBITDA for the full year to come in at EUR 2.6 2.7 Bn, up from a previous forecast of EUR 2.4 2.6 Bn issued in October. The new prediction includes EUR 100M in impairment charges for the first time linked to a planned optimization of the companys vessel portfolio. Hapag-Lloyd said market demand for capacity continued to be surprisingly strong, and confirmed that it is currently deploying every available ship. The new forecast represents a doubling in EBITDA compared to 2019. Five South Korean Carriers HMM, SM Line, Pan Ocean, Sinokor Merchant Marine and Heung-A Line (Sinokor Group) have signed a codeshare agreement for services between South Korea and South East Asia. They will form a regional alliance as of Q2 2021. Dubbed “K- Alliance”, the agreement is aimed at consolidating the fragmented South Korean liner industry and the respective carriers South East Asia routes. So far, the Korean carriers compete intensely on these route corridors. The agreement has been established at the urging of South Koreas Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. The South Korean government expects that the K-Alliance will enable Korean carriers to enhance competitiveness through optimization of service duplication, ship deployment and joint use of port facilities and containers. Pacific International Line (PIL) has sold a total of 22 ships so far this year, raising USD 800M to pay down secured debt. PIL, which is fighting to get creditor approval for a comprehensive refinancing by an arm of the Singapore government, finally released its audited results for 2019 in early December 2020. The carrier made a loss of just USD 120M in the 1st half of the year, but this figure rose to USD 850M for the full year (USD 795M attributable to equity holders) after an impairment loss of USD 590M was booked on ship values in the 2nd half. Most of the ships affected by the charge will be sold as part of PILs asset disposal plan. As the end of November, PIL had received support for its refinancing plan from 80% of creditors by value. Accounts were audited on a going concern basis, with reasonable grounds to believe that the company will be able to restructure its major debts. CARRIERS DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 13 Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 14 Source: Alphaliner Did you Know? Fleet Growth 2020 HMM has jumped from the 10th to the 8th rank after an 85% capacity increase thanks to the delivery of 12 x 24000 TEU newbuildings and the recuperation of 9 vessels that had been sub-chartered to Maersk and MSC. With 11.8% also CMA CGM realized an impressive fleet growth as it took delivery of its first 4 x 23112 TEU newbuildings and increased its chartered-in fleet from 382 to 452 vessels. PIL on the other hand has slipped from the 9th to the last rank, following its departure from the TP trade, the sale of 16 vessels and a reduction of its chartered fleet by 16 units, resulting in a 28.9% fleet capacity reduction. The gap between the worlds two biggest carriers has narrowed to 251000 TEU as MSC has witnessed a modest 2.4% growth while Maersk has ended the year with a 2% smaller fleet. The two are anyway still well ahead of COSCO and CMA CGM. Eight of the Top-12 carriers have increased their fleet in 2020 BACK-UP 15 MARKET OUTLOOK JANUARY 2021 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES ADDITIONAL TRADES (1/2) DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | January 2021 16 Source: DHL EURO- AMLA+MX Increasing costs to be expected, either through PSS, Equipment Imbalance and/or GRI. Vessels still sailing at capacity. Prebooking time increasing. Equipment issues remain. AL4 service (Mexico/US-Gulf) returning to weekly service. No further blanks expected. EURO- MENAT Space and Equipment availability in North Europe are getting tight. Rates increasing slightly. EURO- SSA Rates ex Europe to South Africa are remaining stable. Capacity is available. Equipment Imbalance Surcharges are in place. Space into West Africa is tight and several ports are congested with waiting times for berthing and unloading, caused by high season, operational issues and Covid 19 related restrictions. Carriers are calling for PSS and Emergency Congestion Surcharges and Equipment Imbalance Surcharges. Capacity is still tight into East Africa. Carriers are still facing delays, caused by congestions in transshipment ports in Middle East or IPBC, as well as in East Africa main ports. Carriers have implemented PSS, Equipment Imbalance Surcharges and congestion surcharges. AMNO- MENAT With space remaining tight, and expected to worsen with agri season, carriers have announced a second wave of GRIs for early January to Mideast destinations around $80/$100. Rates to Turkey remain very competitive. Space wide open on EMA service (Cosco, OOCL, ONE & YML) and Hapag has two direct offerings. AMNO- SSA No rate changes for SSA destinations. AMNO- AMLA Equipment shortages continue through the region, alongside with carriers exercising rigid free time guidelines as measures for quick box turn around. Sporadic increases announced as Peak Season Surcharge. Expected bottlenecks during February due to CNY blank sailings ripple effect. Carriers continue to control capacity through blank sailings in an effort to maintain higher freight rates and impose new surcharges. Short and long term negotiations are being scrutinized for increases. MARKET OUTLOOK JANUARY 2021 OCEAN FREIGHT RA