医药商业行业深度报告：业绩峰回路转，行业整合加速.pdf

Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 2018+ 2017 20172018 20172018SPD DTPTable_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2017 2018E 2019E 2017 2018E 2019E 25.08 1.27 1.36 1.55 18.26 17.05 14.91 19.79 0.95 1.25 1.65 20.83 15.88 11.99 15.95 0.67 0.90 1.18 23.77 17.78 13.48 52.46 2.17 2.74 3.48 24.19 19.18 15.06 30.78 1.49 1.68 1.93 20.67 18.27 16.00 26.30 1.04 1.33 1.67 25.33 19.80 15.77 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -15%-7%1%9%17%25%2017/4/102017/8/282017/12/142018/4/4Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M 11.89% 6.62% 2.15% 15.91% 13.26% -9.39% Table_IndustryMarket 25 4893 3473 21.88 2.91 4677 159 % 57.49 Table_Report 601607-20170829 601607-20170428 Table_Author S0550516120002 021-20361126 liuscnesc S0550115120002 021-20361131 cuijmnesc / 2018-04-10 2 / 28Table_PageTop 1. . 32. . 72.1. .72.2. .82.2.1. 2018 . 82.2.2. . 102.3. .102.4. .123. . 123.1. .133.2. .153.2.1. . 153.2.2. - . 173.3. .184. . 194.1. 2017 .194.2. .205. . 215.1. .215.2. .225.3. .235.4. .245.5. .245.6. .25 3 / 28Table_PageTop 1. 20182016 37.67%70.90% 20112018+1 2 2016 20165 1 2017 1 93 4 / 28Table_PageTop 2017 20184 1 2017 4 13 2017 6 1 2016 4 11 2017 4 11 2017 1 1 2017 3 4 5 / 28Table_PageTop 2017 4 28 2017 5 1 2017 4 26 2017 10 1 2017 3 23 - 2017 4 8 2016 11 3 - 2017 5 1 2017 4 28 - 2017 7 1 2016 12 31 2017 1 3 2017 4 6 2017 4 6 2016 12 12 2016 12 15 2016 11 2017 1 1 2016 10 8 2016 11 1 2014 6 25 2014 2014 6 25 2017 5 24 - 2017 5 24 2017 5 19 - 2018 1 1 2017 5 17 - 2017 5 17 2017 1 11 - 2017 1 11 2017 5 13 - 2017 5 13 2016 5 22 20162016 5 22 2017 4 28 ( )( ) - 2017 7 1 2016 12 22 - 2017 6 / 28Table_PageTop 2016 11 4 - 2017 6 30 2017 6 30 2017 7 2016 11 4 52016 11 2016 8 1 2016 8 2016 10 3 ( ) 2017 11 11 2016 4 30 2017 8 7 2016 8 15 2017 10 1 2017 5 19 20172018 2017 2017 9 7 2017 9 +2 7 / 28Table_PageTop 2. 2018 32.1. 2015320 78 24%2014 4.31 250 76% 20144.34 2012-2015 85%95% 10% 3%1.3 60%80% 3000 5 3 6 201720172017 8 / 28Table_PageTop 7 201820182.2. 2.2.1. 2018 2009 201120152016 200 2017 9 / 28Table_PageTop 8 3 2017 4 8 2016 10 28 2017 9 30 2017 9 30 2016 12 15 2017 7 31 2017 9 1 2016 10 1 2017 8 26 2017 7 31 2017 7 1 2017 9 30 2017 9 30 2017 5 31 2017 9 30 2017 9 30 2017 8 1 2017 9 30 2017 9 30 2017 9 30 2014 12 31 2017 7 18 2015 4 1 2017 8 31 2015 6 30 2017 3 31 2017 7 30 2017 7 27 2017 9 30 2016 12 31 2017 9 30 2017 10 / 28Table_PageTop 9 Wind 2017 20182015 6 3020152016 12.2.2. SPD2.3. 2015 2770 11 / 28Table_PageTop 10 2011 3 141% 45%74% 83% 34% 44%41% 51% 36% 51%11 12 / 28Table_PageTop 2.4. 12 13 Wind Wind 2016 20169 5.22% 2017 9 5.76%2017 12 5.74%3. 13 / 28Table_PageTop 14 3.1. 2015 30802001-2015 20%38%13% 20%2% 27% 15 16 14 / 28Table_PageTop 17 4 MRI CT IVD 15 / 28Table_PageTop 5 1.6 3080 6%-9% 25%-40% 1%-2.5% 6%-10% GSP186269125197 121984500-3000 2015GSP)155 153.2. 3.2.1. 1998 24R.P. Scherer R.P. SchererSP MagellanGala 16 / 28Table_PageTop 201120142015 10 5%18 19 -90%20 17 / 28Table_PageTop 3.2.2. - 2011-20156 739 1807 16 3502 18 911 10 250 195 328 OTC 18 / 28Table_PageTop 21 22 3.3. 23 19 / 28Table_PageTop SPD DTPGPO PBM24 4. 4.1. 2017 62017 1 329.65% 5.72% 20 / 28Table_PageTop 25 Wind 4.2. 6TTM 2236.5 2017 302226 Wind 21 / 28Table_PageTop 27 Wind 5. 5.1. 201720 24SPDGPO PBM 161807 22 / 28Table_PageTop 2017DTP 70 DTPHER2 -MCC-DM1Her22018-2020 38.54 44.06 50.73EPS 1.36 1.55 1.78 PE 17 15 135.2. 30 73200 21%30%2017-2019 EPS 0.95 1.25 1.65PE 21 16 12 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 120,765 130,847 143,760 161,724 183,439 (+/-)% 14.45% 8.35% 9.87% 12.50% 13.43% 3,196 3,405 3,854 4,406 5,073 (+/-)% 11.10% 6.51% 13.19% 14.34% 15.13% 1.19 1.27 1.36 1.55 1.78 19.45 18.26 17.05 14.91 12.95 1.69 1.57 1.48 1.32 1.17 (%) 10.11% 10.00% 10.13% 10.38% 10.68% (%) 0.00% 1.64% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 2,689 2,689 2,842 2,842 2,842 23 / 28Table_PageTop 5.3. 2001-201520%3020185 46.5% 54.5%2017-2019 EPS 0.670.90 1.18 PE 24 18 13 Table_Finance 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 49,589 61,557 77,288 97,143 122,250 (+/-)% 20.75% 24.13% 25.56% 25.69% 25.85% 695 877 1,565 2,053 2,718 (+/-)% 23.87% 26.23% 78.47% 31.19% 32.40% 0.42 0.53 0.95 1.25 1.65 46.93 37.18 20.83 15.88 11.99 3.31 2.71 2.86 2.41 2.00 (%) 7.42% 7.77% 14.75% 16.21% 17.67% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647 Table_Finance 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 9,750 15,619 23,320 31,420 41,220 (+/-)% 25.23% 60.19% 49.31% 34.74% 31.19% 236 591 1,010 1,350 1,781 (+/-)% 30.36% 150.39% 70.89% 33.69% 31.93% 0.43 0.90 0.67 0.90 1.18 37.49 17.66 23.77 17.78 13.48 2.60 1.39 2.53 2.19 1.85 (%) 7.39% 8.59% 11.56% 13.38% 15.01% (%) 0.00% 0.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 555 654 1,505 1,505 1,505 24 / 28Table_PageTop 5.4. + 20175 201840DTP 227 103 DTP25 DTPIVD2017 1.1428.64%IVD 2018-2020 EPS 2.74 3.48 4.35PE 19 15 12 5.5. +300 18%Table_Finance 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 7,559 9,447 11,576 14,206 17,472 (+/-)% 16.16% 24.97% 22.53% 22.73% 22.99% 321 401 506 645 804 (+/-)% 54.05% 25.04% 26.13% 27.31% 24.80% 2.26 2.17 2.74 3.48 4.35 23.26 24.19 19.18 15.06 12.07 2.31 2.72 2.36 2.02 1.71 (%) 10.06% 11.50% 12.66% 13.88% 14.77% (%) 0.00% 1.26% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 142 185 185 185 185 25 / 28Table_PageTop 80%2018-2020 EPS 1.68 1.93 2.22PE 18 16 14 5.6. 2017IVDIVD100%16.72%PBM 2017-2019 EPS 1.04 1.33 1.67PE 25 20 16 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 13,386 36,285 39,546 43,567 47,098 (+/-)% 10.83% 171.06% 8.99% 10.17% 8.10% 548 1,142 1,292 1,484 1,700 (+/-)% 6.78% 108.54% 13.15% 14.81% 14.60% 1.14 1.49 1.68 1.93 2.22 26.91 20.67 18.27 16 13.89 3.61 2.50 2.16 1.87 1.62 (%) 15.25% 13.95% 13.64% 13.54% 13.43% (%) 0.00% 1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 479 767 767 767 767 Table_Finance 26 / 28Table_PageTop 7 EPS PE 2017E 2018E 2019E 2017E 2018E 2019E 601607.SH 25.08 1.27 1.36 1.55 18.26 17.05 14.91 600998.SH 19.79 0.95 1.25 1.65 20.83 15.88 11.99 002589.SZ 15.95 0.67 0.90 1.18 23.77 17.78 13.48 603368.SH 52.46 2.17 2.74 3.48 24.19 19.18 15.06 600511.SH 30.78 1.49 1.68 1.93 20.67 18.27 16.00 002462.SZ 26.30 1.04 1.33 1.67 25.33 19.80 15.77 000028.SZ 60.58 2.47 2.84 5.25 20.36 21.32 18.65 - 600829.SH 10.71 0.44 0.51 0.60 29.75 20.95 17.85 - 600713.SH 5.60 0.24 0.30 0.37 23.48 18.40 14.95 - 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 8,200 10,972 14,362 18,562 22,798 (+/-)% 47.16% 33.80% 30.90% 29.24% 22.82% 173 223 261 333 418 (+/-)% -24.15% 28.98% 17.06% 27.45% 25.54% 0.72 0.89 1.04 1.33 1.67 36.49 29.53 25.23 19.80 15.77 2.87 2.24 1.87 1.53 1.25 (%) 12.08% 11.26% 11.65% 12.93% 13.96% (%) 0.00% 0.57% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 240 251 251 251 251 27 / 28Table_PageTop 2015“ ”R3 A BAA ABS“ ”6 15% 6 5% 15% 6 -5% 5% 6 5% 15% 6 15% 6 6 6 28 / 28Table_PageTop