上市保险公司2021年中期业绩综述.pdf

1 / 22 2021 09 02 7 -7 -2021.8.17 - -2021.8.7 6 - -2021.7.16 2021 S0790520050001 S0790120100011 2021H1 2021H1 NBV 1 2 3 NBV EV 2021H1 NBV -8.9% -11.7% -19.0% -21.7% -23.4% 4 1 2 3 4 2021H1 2518 +2.5% 1333 -7.5% 816 +6.4% +1.7% 2020 2021Q1 5 12 4.8% +4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 6.7% 6.5% 5.7% 5.0% 3.5% -41% -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 2020-09 2021-02 2021-07 3002 / 22 1 4 1 . 4 2 NBV . 7 2.1 NBV . 7 2.2 . 11 3 . 14 4 . 16 5 . 17 6 . 20 1 2021H1 Q1 . 4 2 2021H1 . 4 3 2021H1 . 5 4 2021H1 . 5 5 2021H1 40% . 5 6 . 5 7 . 6 8 EV . 6 9 ROEV NBV . 6 10 NBV EV . 7 11 EV . 7 12 2021H1 Q1 . 7 13 2021H1 . 7 14 . 8 15 2021H1 NBV . 8 16 2021H1 NBV . 8 17 . 9 18 2021H1 . 10 19 2021H1 . 10 20 2021H1 . 10 21 2021H1 13 . 11 22 2021H1 25 2020 . 11 23 2021H1 . 14 24 2021H1 . 14 25 2021H1 . 15 26 2021H1 2021Q1 . 15 27 2021H1 2020A . 15 28 2021H1 . 16 29 2021H1 . 16 30 2021H1 . 16 31 2021H1 . 173 / 22 32 2021H1 . 17 33 “ ” . 18 34 2021H1 NBV +24.2% . 18 35 . 19 36 2.9% . 19 1 2021H1 . 4 2 2021H1 . 5 3 . 8 4 . 11 5 . 13 6 . 13 7 . 194 / 22 1 4 1 2021Q1 2021 Q1 Q1 359 208 1 2021H1 Q1 2 2021H1 1 2021H1 2021H1 % % 127,216 30.1% 40,975 34.2% 47,442 -15.2% 58,005 -15.5% 50,453 23.2% 17,304 21.5% 32,604 28.9% 10,546 28.3% 35,895 27.9% 16,884 34.0% 2021H1 818 +10.1% 183 +4.9% +3.1% 2020 +9.6% -23.9% -29.1% 2020 5.3pct +10.1% 2021H1 2020 +11.7% 6.8pct -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 5 / 22 3 2021H1 4 2021H1 5 2021H1 40% 6 2 2021H1 2020A 2021H1 2020A % 2021H1 % 81,583 41,589 9.6% 3.1% 13,170 7,133 12.2% 13.9% 4,565 2,125 15.7% -23.9% 4,607 7,011 -55.7% -29.1% 103,925 57,858 3.4% -2.4% -10,260 -7,629 -11.5% -1.5% 93,665 50,230 5.3% -2.5% 92,672 81,836 5.2% 10.1% 2021H1 1.14 1.38 4744 2508 3226 NBV EV +12.5% +11.6% +10.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021H1 % -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021H1 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% -YOY -YOY -YOY -YOY % 2020A 2021Q1 2021H16 / 22 +10.2% +9.6% 7 8 EV NBV ROEV 2021H1 ROEV 14.9% 2020H1 14.5% 13.6% 2020H1 17.0% 11.8% 2020H1 20.6% 2021H1ROEV 9 ROEV NBV - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021H1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021H1 EV % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 ROEV （% ）7 / 22 10 NBV EV 11 EV 2 NBV 2.1 NBV 2021H1 2021Q1 4423 +3.5% 2021Q1+5.2% 2889 -4.1% 1414 +2.1% 2021Q1+3.9% 1006 +3.9% 2021Q1+8.8% 1339 -8.4% 2021Q1-6.4% 876 +3.7% 2021Q1+23.1% 226 +18.5% 2021Q1+35.9% 336 -1.7% 2021Q1+9.6% 1 2 2021 1 3 4 12 2021H1 Q1 13 2021H1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 NBV/ EV % -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 / EV % -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 8 / 22 2021 9.8% 46.7% 2021H1 100.8% 2020 3.6% NBV 14 15 2021H1 NBV 16 2021H1 NBV 3 % 2020H1 2021H1 2020H1 2021H1 2020H1 2021H1 48.5 41.1 63,760 65,955 30,931 27,081 55.2 44.9 50,229 52,757 27,705 23,684 104.4 100.8 16,281 9,252 16,999 9,326 55.4 55.8 7,387 10,695 4,090 5,965 21.1 21.0 23,756 30,202 5,003 6,356 57.5 78.1 2,805 2,609 1,613 2,036 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 % - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2020H1 2021H1 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 9 / 22 % 28.8 28.4 7,967 8,718 2,298 2,475 16.7 20.6 5,564 4,480 928 923 0.5 1.4 20,788 21,686 100 306 36.7 31.2 84,548 87,641 31,031 27,387 2021H1 115 Q1 128.2 87.8 Q1 98.6 64.1 2020A 74.9 44.1 2020A 60.6 25.8 2020A 43.0 1 2 3 4 2021 17 2021H1 12289 +36.8% 11423 +40.6% 5873 +41.6% 4625 +10.9% 0 50 100 150 20010 / 22 18 2021H1 19 2021H1 20 2021H1 2021H1 13 25 2020 1 2 3 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% (50,000) - 50,000 100,000 2020H1 2021H1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2020H1 2021H1 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H111 / 22 21 2021H1 13 22 2021H1 25 2020 14 26 2.2 2021 4 / 2021/1/6 2021/1/11 2021 7 2021/1/20 2021 2021 31 2021/1/22 2021/1/25 2021 1 2021 1 2021/2/21 - 2021/3/22 2021/3/31 2021/4/1 2020 2021 6 2021/4/7 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 13 % - - 70 75 80 85 90 95 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 25 % - -12 / 22 / 2021/4/8 2021 477 2021/4/13 2021/4/13 2021/4/22 2021/5/15 2021 57 2021/5/17 2021 673 2021/5/21 2021 12 2021/5/26 2021 2021 9 2021/5/28 202165 2021/6/2 202166 2021/6/4 2021/6/23 2021/7/5 2021 305 2021/7/7 2021/7/16 2021 24 2021/7/30 2021 329 2021/8/3 2021/8/6 2021/8/19 2021/8/24 2021 102 2021/8/25 2015 5 2021 730 35 15013 / 22 2021 7 26 85.0% 5 28.32% 19.49% 16.66% 16.09% 16.06% 15.79% 15.05% 14.92% 10.38% 10.10% 9.38% 8.98% 8.96% 8.51% 4.95% 38.49% 38.41% 28.18% 85.00% 76.51% 66.00% 60.00% 44.00% 6 / 100 100 30 10 - - 100 5014 / 22 / 2021 300 600 600 600 200 200 100 100 200 400 - - E 2021 200 200 - - 200 400 100 - 2021 50 100 - - e 200 200 100 - 3 2021H1 2518 +2.5% 1333 -7.5% 816 +6.4% +1.7% -6.9% Q1-7.0% -6.9% Q1 -8.8% -7.8% Q1 -6.7% 2020 9 19 2021 3 +28.6% Q1 +41.0% +14.2% Q1 +18.3% -8.6% Q1 -8.8% 23 2021H1 24 2021H1 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 15 / 22 25 2021H1 26 2021H1 2021Q1 2021H1 2020 2021Q1 2021H1 95.9% 2021Q1 95.2% 2020A 99.1% 2021H1 97.2% 2021Q1 95.7% 2020A 98.9% 2021H1 99.3% 2020A 99.0% 2021Q4 27 2021H1 2020A -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 % 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 16 / 22 28 2021H1 29 2021H1 4 5 12 5 4.46 +4.1% 3.79 +0.2% 1.75 +4.2% 1.10 1.8% 9793 +2.3% 30 2021H1 2021H1 4.8% 2020H1 4.9% +4.5% 2020H1 4.6% 4.3% 2020H1 4.29% 4.1% 2020H1 4.4% 3.8% 2020H1 4.1% 6.7% 2020H1 5.5% 6.5% 2021Q1 7.9% 2020H1 5.1% 5.7% 2021Q1 6.4% 2020H1 5.3% 5.0% 2021Q1 4.6% 2020H1 4.8% 3.5% 2021Q1 3.1% 2020H1 4.5% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% % 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% % - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 2021H117 / 22 31 2021H1 32 2021H1 5 2021H1 2021H1 NBV 730 38.5% 35 150 2021 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 % 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020H1 2020A 2021H1 18 / 22 33 4 3 2021H1 +24.2% 34 2021H1 NBV +24.2% NBV -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2020H1 NBV % NBV 19 / 22 35 Wind 36 2.9% Wind 7 EVPS PEV BVPS PB 2021/9/1 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2020A 2021E 601601.SH 27.47 47.74 52.77 58.49 0.58 0.52 0.47 22.37 24.19 1.23 1.14 Wind - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2013-09-30 2014-09-30 2015-09-30 2016-09-30 2017-09-30 2018-09-30 2019-09-30 2020-09-30 8 PEV 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 10 % 10 75020 / 22 621 / 22 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50022 / 22 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065