地产调控这次不一样.pdf

1 / 19 2021 08 02 - - 2021.8.1 -PMI -2021.8.1 - -2021.7.31 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 2020 1998 -2016 “ ” “ ” 2020 2021 -1055 6 1800 200 3900 3600 2.1 2000 “ ” 6 -6.5% 2021 6 10% 1.7 -0.12 / 19 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 6 1.3 . 9 2 . 11 2.1 . 11 2.2 . 11 2.3 . 12 3 . 12 3.1 . 12 3.2 . 14 3.3 . 16 4 . 17 1 1998-2016 “ ” “ ” . 4 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 . 6 5 . 6 6 ABS ABN . 6 7 . 6 8 2020 . 8 9 . 8 10 . 8 11 300 . 9 12 . 9 13 . 10 14 2021 . 10 15 28 . 11 16 . 11 17 . 11 18 . 11 19 - 24 . 12 20 -17 . 12 21 30 . 13 22 30 . 13 23 30 . 13 24 30 . 13 25 100 . 14 26 100 . 14 27 100 . 143 / 19 28 . 14 29 . 15 30 . 15 31 . 15 32 . 15 33 . 16 34 . 16 35 . 16 36 . 16 37 . 17 38 (100 ) . 17 39 . 17 40 LME3 . 17 1 2020 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 8 4 2020 . 8 5 . 12 6 . 124 / 19 1 2020 1.1 1998 -2016 1 1998-2016 Wind 2005 14.2% 2020 28.7% 2005 16.9% 2020 62.25 / 19 2 3 Wind 2020 1 2020 2020 5 9 30% 50% 2020 8 20 2020 9 16 2020 11 26 2019 20% 2020 12 31 2021 3 12 2021 2021 3 26 2021 5 21 ABS 21 2021 7 23 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 33% 38% 43% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8% 18% 28% 38% 48% 58% 68% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20206 / 19 1.2 -1055 1800 200 3900 3600 “ ” 4 5 Wind Wind 6 ABS ABN 7 Wind Wind 2 35.9% 40.0% 30.8% 32.5% 39.4% 40.0% 34.7% 32.5% 2.2% 4 36.1% 40.0% 30.8% 32.5% 39.2% 40.0% 31.2% 32.5% 28.1% 40.0% 22.1% 32.5% 35.2% 40.0% 33.6% 32.5% 1.1% 2 33.1% 27.5% 5.6% 4 25.3% 20.0% 5.3% 4 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 20201Q4 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 -1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 ABS 、ABN -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010-03 2010-08 2011-01 2011-06 2011-11 2012-04 2012-09 2013-02 2013-07 2013-12 2014-05 2014-10 2015-03 2015-08 2016-01 2016-06 2016-11 2017-04 2017-09 2018-02 2018-07 2018-12 2019-05 2019-10 2020-03 2020-08 2021-01 2021-06 7 / 19 26.4% 27.5% 18.7% 20.0% 26.9% 27.5% 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 2 34.6% 27.5% 7.1% 4 26.6% 20.0% 6.6% 4 24.8% 27.5% 13.4% 20.0% 23.8% 27.5% 16.4% 20.0% 20.1% 27.5% 12.9% 20.0% 19.2% 27.5% 9.0% 20.0% 30.7% 27.5% 3.2% 4 20.9% 20.0% 0.9% 2 25.5% 27.5% 11.3% 20.0% 26.0% 27.5% 18.6% 20.0% 20.2% 27.5% 6.3% 20.0% 34.6% 22.5% 12.1% 4 25.8% 17.5% 8.3% 4 14.3% 22.5% 7.3% 17.5% 17.7% 22.5% 12.5% 17.5% 26.9% 22.5% 4.4% 4 19.5% 17.5% 24.4% 22.5% 1.9% 2 14.9% 17.5% 14.2% 22.5% 10.8% 17.5% 8.7% 22.5% 3.4% 17.5% 28.0% 22.5% 5.5% 4 15.1% 17.5% 20.4% 22.5% 16.4% 17.5% 29.8% 22.5% 19.6% 17.5% 2.1% 4 15.2% 22.5% 14.8% 17.5% 12.4% 22.5% 11.4% 17.5% 21.4% 22.5% 13.9% 17.5% 19.1% 22.5% 18.0% 17.5% 0.5% 2 11.8% 22.5% 9.5% 17.5% Wind 2020 8 20 12 2020 -1.4% 2019 15.6 2021 2020 52 10 24 10 88 / 19 8 2020 3 Wind 2021 2.1 2000 3 6 10.8% 3 9 5.3% 3 5.4 6 12.1% 5 4.6 2020 9 10 Wind 2021 1-6 Wind 4 2020 2020-9-15 2020-10-11 2020-10-22 2020-11-23 2020-12-1 2020-12-1 2020-12-2 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 2019-06 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 2021-03 2021-069 / 19 2020-12-3 2020-12-8 2020-12-8 2020-12-14 1.3 6 -30% -6.5% 11 300 12 Wind Wind 2021 10% 1.7 -0.1% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 300 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 2019-06 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-0410 / 19 13 14 2021 Wind 2021 1-6 Wind 1 2 2016 2020 3 2021 -1055 6 1800 200 3900 3600 2.1 2000 4 12 2020 -1.4% 2019 15.6 2021 2020 52 10 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2006-02 2006-09 2007-04 2007-11 2008-06 2009-01 2009-08 2010-03 2010-10 2011-05 2011-12 2012-07 2013-02 2013-09 2014-04 2014-11 2015-06 2016-01 2016-08 2017-03 2017-10 2018-05 2018-12 2019-07 2020-02 2020-09 2021-04 11.3% 14.7% 10.3% 10.8% 17.5% -0.1% -9.8% 11.5% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1 2021H2 E11 / 19 2 2.1 7 26 -7 30 28 4.0% 4.27 / 0.7% 22.14 / 15 28 16 Wind Wind 2.2 7 26 -7 30 0.31% 6.46 92.09 0.88% - 24 -17 17 18 Wind Wind 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 ( ) 5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05 6.10 6.15 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 100 (12 / 19 19 - 24 20 -17 Wind Wind 2.3 7 26 -7 30 1.3% 2.9% 9.5% 8.6% 5 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% -0.1% 2.9% 1.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.9% -1.0% 0.5% 0.2% Wind 6 PTA PVC -8.6% 1.8% 9.5% 1.3% 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% -1.7% 3.8% 1.2% 2.9% -0.3% 1.9% 2.1% -8.2% -0.3% 3.7% -1.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -2.7% 1.8% 3.8% -1.6% -0.2% -3.5% Wind 3 3.1 7 19 -7 25 30 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 - ( ) -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 6.20 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 ( ) USDCNH13 / 19 30 363 62 17.1% 189 13.8% 112 10.2% 21 30 22 30 Wind Wind 23 30 24 30 Wind Wind 7 19 -7 25 100 874 31.5% 4598 / 125.6% 1.43 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 (14 / 19 25 100 26 100 Wind Wind 27 100 28 Wind Wind 3.2 7 26 -7 30 Myspic 208.27 1.9% 57.0% 0.6% 139.29 0.1% 2894 / 4.7% 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 800 1,300 1,800 2,300 2,800 3,300 3,800 4,300 4,800 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( / ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 (15 / 19 29 30 Wind Wind 31 32 Wind Wind 7 26 -7 30 2.3% 2.7% 0.8% 2.8% 2.1% 3.9% 0.6% 6.5% 13920 / 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 Myspic MySpic MySpic 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 (%) 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 1300 1700 2100 2500 2900 3300 2020-08 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 ( /16 / 19 33 34 Wind Wind 35 36 Wind Wind 3.3 7 26 -7 30 100 2150 / 19.4% 1087.5 / 1.4% 100 72.48% 1.5% 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 1# A00 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 1# 1# ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.0 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 ( ) ( ) (17 / 19 37 38 (100 ) Wind Wind 7 26 -7 30 LME3 WTI 3.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% LME3 0.9% 3.5% 0.3% 1.8% 39 40 LME3 Wind Wind 4 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 （% ） 55 60 65 70 75 80 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 ( ): WTI ( / ) 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 01-29 02-12 02-26 03-12 03-26 04-09 04-23 05-07 05-21 06-04 06-18 07-02 07-16 07-30 LME3 LME3 ( / ) ( /18 / 19 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50019 / 19 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065