“碳中和”化工篇之二：碳中和开启“总量控制版”供给侧改革龙头企业将充分受益于存量资产优势.pdf
1 / 34 2021 07 26 -OPEC+ -2021.7.25 -MLCC MLCC + -2021.7.25 - - 2021.7.25 S0790520020002 S0790120080059 S0790120010015 2016-2018 CCPI 2016-2018 20 -PVC 1 2 3 - 2060 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 3002 / 34 1 2016-2018 “ ” . 4 1.1 2016-2018 . 4 1.2 “ ” . 8 2 “ ” . 11 2.1 . 11 2.1.1 . 11 2.1.2 . 14 2.1.3 . 16 2.2 PVC . 17 2.2.1 . 17 2.2.2 -PVC . 20 2.3 “ ” . 23 2.3.1 . 23 2.3.2 . 25 2.3.3 . 27 2.3.4 . 29 3 . 31 4 . 32 1 “ ” . 4 2 “ ” “ ” . 4 3 2016-2018 . 5 4 2016 . 6 5 2015-2017 . 6 6 2015-2017 . 6 7 2015-2017 . 7 8 2015-2017 . 7 9 2015-2017 . 7 10 2016 . 7 11 2015-2017 . 7 12 . 8 13 . 8 14 “ ” . 9 15 . 10 16 . 10 17 . 10 18 . 11 19 2014 . 12 20 2016-2020 . 13 21 . 14 22 2021 . 153 / 34 23 2015 . 15 24 . 15 25 2008-2020 CAGR 17% . 16 26 CR5 17% . 16 27 PTA 27.5% . 17 28 CR5 52.9% . 17 29 2010 . 18 30 2016 2018 . 19 31 2015 . 20 32 2014 PVC 2,515 . 21 33 2016 PVC . 21 34 PVC . 22 35 . 23 36 . 23 37 2008 . 24 38 . 25 39 2016 . 25 40 2020 DMC . 26 41 . 27 42 2008 10 / . 28 43 2020 . 28 44 2017 . 29 45 CR5 71.5% . 29 46 2014 . 30 47 2015 . 30 48 2021 . 30 49 . 31 1 PVC PVC . 22 2 . 24 3 2019 10 . 26 4 . 314 / 34 1 2016-2018 1.1 2016-2018 2015 11 10 2015 2016 -2018 1 2 2016-2018 2015 11 2016 1 CCPI 2012 2012-2015 2015 Wind 2010 1,445.14 2014 3,511.77 CAGR 24.95 / 34 2015 1.34 2010 65% CCPI 2012 9 6,081 2016 1 3,521 42.1% 2015 -2018 2015 1 1 2016 11 21 2018 1 1 Wind 2010 3.3 2018 2.7 21% 2018 Wind 2014 2017 2014 3,511.77 2017 2,450.55 CAGR -11.3% 2018 1.44 2015 7.3% 2016 1 CCPI 3,643 2017 2 5,188 42.41% 2018-2020 2018 CCPI 5,296 2018 3,865 57.71% 2019 16,148 12.13% 2020 4 CCPI 3,154 45.6% 3 2016-2018 Wind 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 (CCPI) 2015.11 2016.1 2017.106 / 34 4 2016 Wind 5 2015-2017 6 2015-2017 Wind Wind 2016-2018 2015 2018 Wind 2017 1.05 2014 1.67 ROA ROE 2016-2018 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY7 / 34 7 2015-2017 Wind 8 2015-2017 9 2015-2017 Wind Wind 10 2016 11 2015-2017 Wind Wind 2016-2018 2016 -2018 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8 / 34 288 2021 7 21 2020 2012-2015 2018-2020 1 CAGR 7.22% CAGR 6.34% CAGR 43.54% CAGR 18.97% 15%-18% 19%-30% 2 18%-20% 20%-25% 2019 CCPI 4,080 2017 30% 12 13 Wind Wind 1.2 2021 3 5 2021 2020 9 22 2030 2060 2020 12 12 2030 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY YOY 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20209 / 34 2005 65% 25% 2021 3 18 2030 2030-2050 2050-2060 14 + - + 1 2 310 / 34 - 15 16 17 Wind Wind 潜在进 入者 供应者 购买者 替代品 同行业 竞争者 化工 龙头 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201911 / 34 2 2.1 2003 2008 18 . 25 J. ,2020,48(08):1-25. 2.1.1 MTBE DMF 1 2008-2015 2006 Wind 2006 2,620 / 3,890 / 200812 / 34 4,930 / 2008 1,660 / 829 / 2009 10 2,000 / 11 2009 2,700 / 2,022 / 37% 2010 2,600 / 2009 26% 2014 3,370 / 2014 1,900 / 2,417.5 / 1,112.5 / 2015 1,010 / 19 2014 Wind 2010 2008- 2010 26.8% 2007-2013 19% 2011 50 100 1 2011 4,543 2010 21% 1,984 43.67% 2 2015-2020 2 2015 7,454 63.32% 5 1 . J. ,2015(15):42-46. 2 . , J. ,2016,34(04):1-4. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2008/1 2008/7 2009/1 2009/7 2010/1 2010/7 2011/1 2011/7 2012/1 2012/7 2013/1 2013/7 2014/1 2014/7 2015/1 2015/7 2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 / -1.513 / 34 50 44% 4 3 2018 50 50 5,700 7 20 2016-2020 5.4% 2020 9,236 903 6,717.25 72.73% Wind 2017-2018 3,730 / 2,792.5 / 2018 2018 2,310 / 1,455 / 2018 3,095.36 / 2008 2019 2019 2,025 / 1,200.75 / 2020 2020 2,600 / 2021 7 21 2,720 / 11.9% 1,164 / 20 2016-2020 . J. ,2015(15):42-46. . , J. ,2016,34(04):1-4. -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E YOY YOY14 / 34 21 .2019 J. ,2019(03):46-49. 2.1.2 1 2009 3 2006 256 142 210 68% Wind 2005 8,200 / 6,739 / 2008 3,000 / 2 2009-2016 2009 2009 470 2015 825 8.6% Wind 2015 8 2,500-5,200 / 2016 2 1,730 / 2,800 / 3 2017 2015 2015- 2020 2.8% PTA 2017 2017 2018 2018 6 5,500 / 2019 3,000 / 2019 1-3 3,000 / 3-8 3 , , . J. ,2014(23):73-75.15 / 34 2,450 / 3,000 / 2019 2,500 / 2020 2,700 / 2019 8.5% 2021 Wind 5,345 / 2020 1,962 / 58% 4,000 / 2021 7 21 5,900 / 34% 4,418 / 2021 2020 945 PTA 22 2021 Wind 23 2015 24 Wind , , . J. ,2014(23):73-75. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 / / -0.545 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY YOY -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY16 / 34 2.1.3 DMF 2008-2020 15.32% 2020 2020 8,006.73 9.86% 2021 10,300 8,814.9 2020 2021 6 1,660 PTA PTA 60.87 / 2021 70 2021 2022 2,570 PTA 94.23 / CR5 17% PTA 25 2008-2020 CAGR 17% 26 CR5 17% . J. ,2015(15):42-46. . , J. ,2016,34(04):1-4. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 1.9% 83.017 / 34 27 PTA 27.5% 28 CR5 52.9% 2.2 PVC 2003 PVC 2.2.1 2000-2007 2010 2008 2000-2007 CAGR 15% 2007 2,000 2,181 20.50% 2010 2015 30 3,873 2016 2016-2020 5% 80% 2020 4,248.5 1.93% 3,643.2 85.8% PTA, 27.50% , 18.58% , 17.65% , 6.98% , 6.70% , 22.59% 14.8% 12.7% 11.6% 7.4% 6.3% 47.118 / 34 29 2010 , , .2011 J. ,2011(12):6-12. . J. ,2012,48(03):1-4. , , . J. ,2020(05):36-39. 2008 4 Wind 1 2009 -2010 2008 2008 7 3,900 / 2010 8 1,880 / 3,300 / 1,450 2 2010 -2012 2009 2011 2010 10 2,000 / 2012 7 3,750 / 1,551 / 3,240 / 3 2012 -2016 2012 2015 2 2,050 / 1,700 / 4 2016 -2018 2015 2016 2017 11 5,550 / 5,111 / 2019 Wind 2021 7 21 99% 2,100 / 5 21 1,900 / 200 / -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 YOY YOY19 / 34 30 2016 2018 Wind 4 2000-2014 12% 2015 2015-2020 4% 3,000-3,500 4 , , .2011 J. ,2011(12):6-12. . J. ,2012,48(03):1-4. , , . J. ,2020(05):36-39. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2008/1 2008/7 2009/1 2009/7 2010/1 2010/7 2011/1 2011/7 2012/1 2012/7 2013/1 2013/7 2014/1 2014/7 2015/1 2015/7 2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 / -1.508 (99%)20 / 34 31 2015 , , .2011 J. ,2011(12):6-12. . J. ,2012,48(03):1-4. , , . J. ,2020(05):36-39. 2.2.2 -PVC PVC 2005-2014 PVC PVC 5 2008 PVC 1,581 PVC 2014 PVC 2,515 2005-2014 PVC 9.8% PVC 2014 PVC PVC 2011 1 PVC 2015 PVC 2014 PVC 2015 6.64% 2020 PVC 2,712.5 7.72% 2021 PVC 2,795.5 5 , , .2011 J. ,2011(12):6-12. -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 YOY21 / 34 32 2014 PVC 2,515 , , .2011 J. ,2011(12):6-12. 2016 PVC Wind 2008 PVC 8,850 / 5,050 / 220 / 2009-2010 2010 11 9,050 / 3,700 / 2011-2015 PVC 2016 PVC 2016 11 8,350 / 4,803 / 2018-2019 PVC 2020 PVC 2020 4 5200 / 2021 5 9,450 / 5 1,529 / 4,108 / Wind 2021 7 21 PVC 9,240 / 25% 33 2016 PVC Wind -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 YOY YOY 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 / / PVC-1.38 PVC22 / 34 20 PVC PVC - - PVC PVC 2019 11 2019 2020 1 1 20 / 30 / 2020 2 2020 PVC 1 PVC PVC PVC PVC 2016 1 66 - 2016 7 -8 8 689 2016 12 7 224 2017 4 -5 7 270 2017 8 -9 8 950 34 PVC Wind -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PVC YOY23 / 34 2.3 2.3.1 2000 2000-2005 12% 2003 1,160 1,133.56 2008 2010 120 / 80% 60 / 60% 40 / 80% 2016-2020 3,000-3,500 5% / 2020 88% 35 36 Wind Wind . ( ) J. ,2008(08):1-8. 2008 Wind 1 2008- 2011 2008 1,200 / 2,320 / 800 / 1,800 / 2 2012-2016 2013 80% 2,000 / 1,300-1,500 / 700-800 / 5 2016 2016 2,200 / 1,800 / 3 2018 2018 W 400 / 2019 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 YOY YOY -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 YOY24 / 34 2020 - - 1,200-2,000 / 900-1,700 / 2021 Wind 2021 7 21 2,082 / 41.54% 1,659 / 37 2008 Wind 2021 20 / 14 / 20 / 130 / 2021 76 2 / 20 2021 4 14 2021 3 20 2021 12 -130 2021 12 2021 -76 25 2022 4 60 2022 6 100 2022 12 60 2022 12 2022 245 10 2023 6 2023 10 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 / -1.525 / 34 2.3.2 2016 SAGSI 2010-2015 2010 78 2015 122 9.36% 2016 2016-2019 9% 1% 68% 83% 38 39 2016 SAGSI 2008 DMC Wind 1 2007 2008 8 DMC 3.11 / 1.77 / DMC 2008 1.9 / DMC 2010 4 2.4 / 2012 9 1.57 / 2 2016 9 2018 6 1.38 / 2018 5 3.55 / 157% 1.70 / 3 2020 DMC 11 3.35 / 1.22-1.53 Wind 2021 6 25 DMC 3.06 / 37% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E YOY YOY26 / 34 40 2020 DMC Wind SAGSI 2019 109 4.81% 2019 10 3 2019 10 20 / 10 / 10 / 10 / 1.5 / 2019 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2008/2 2008/9 2009/4 2009/11 2010/6 2011/1 2011/8 2012/3 2012/10 2013/5 2013/12 2014/7 2015/2 2015/9 2016/4 2016/11 2017/6 2018/1 2018/8 2019/3 2019/10 2020/5 2020/12 2021/7 / DMC-1.16 -0.48 DMC27 / 34 41 SAGSI 2.3.3 2007 2008 10 / 2006 10 Wind 2008 4 10 / 2018 2018 2.2 / 2009 2012 1.8-2.95 / 2012 2013 2013 9 4.46 / 1.73 / 2015 4 2017 2020 1.95-3.01 / 2020 2021 7 21 5 / 82% 3.58 / 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY28 / 34 42 2008 10 / Wind 43 2020 2006 2008 10 / 100 / 2013 5 ( ) 2013 57 2015 2015 4 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 : (95%) / 1 10 / 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 / / -0.5729 / 34 2017-2019 2017 115 / 78 CR5 71.5% 100% 22.3 / 44 2017 45 CR5 71.5% 2.3.4 2013 2014 2005-2013 8.7% 5.0% 2013 2.31% 2015 2020 Wind 2014-2018 2018 43.8% 2015 2019 6,668 4.11% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY YOY , 23.3% , 19.8% , 10.3% , 9.1% , 9.1% , 28.530 / 34 46 2014 47 2015 Wind 2008 1 2008 2010 2017 2018 7 2,500 / 2019 10 1,550 / 1,780 / 570 / 2 2010 2016 2010 2012 5 2,520 / 2016 6 1,260 / 600 / 1,600 / 3 2016 2019 2015 8,096 2016 7,710 2018 7,330 2018 10 2,215 / 2016 8 1,120 / 98% 1,000 / 4 2020 2019 2021 Wind 2021 7 21 46% 2,805 / 50.8% 48 2021 Wind -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 200 400 600 800 / YOY -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY YOY 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2008/1 2008/7 2009/1 2009/7 2010/1 2010/7 2011/1 2011/7 2012/1 2012/7 2013/1 2013/7 2014/1 2014/7 2015/1 2015/7 2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 / -1.2 4631 / 34 2018 4,889 2019 4,850 0.8% 2020 2021 49 3 4 2021/7/26 % PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 600409 13.56 5.00 322.64 0.50 9.46 39.04 9.24 9.19 8.40 601678 8.31 15.65 186.39 21.86 34.66 28.86 10.08 8.27 6.14 002539 11.00 133.79 53.64 27.28 6.50 22.29 14.51 11.40 10.70 600309 117.18 -0.87 141.52 9.01 10.05 36.64 15.17 13.92 12.65 600486 117.70 3.41 30.84 9.99 24.43 30.15 23.04 20.95 16.84 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY32 / 34 2021/7/26 % PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 600346 28.78 34.28 13.86 6.83 12.47 15.15 13.31 12.46 11.08 002001 26.50 64.59 18.87 18.12 10.23 15.98 13.44 11.38 10.32 600426 33.40 -26.69 235.28 -5.81 2.07 30.21 9.01 9.57 9.37 603505 27.70 6.97 30.40 29.49 13.79 27.94 21.42 16.55 14.54 603379 24.13 -65.65 129.39 64.03 32.05 66.40 28.95 17.65 13.36 600160 12.18 -89.39 777.66 46.19 50.91 344.77 39.28 26.87 17.81 600746 19.00 4203.27 1088.85 -15.53 -2.26 95.93 8.07 9.55 9.77 601058 9.16 24.79 40.14 32.65 14.98 18.82 13.43 10.12 8.80 000822 10.35 -254.71 339.85 32.89 24.25 -14.05 15.31 11.52 9.27 002493 19.98 231.17 71.14 32.13 11.87 25.50 16.17 12.24 10.94 002274 11.69 -9.39 349.36 7.60 95.47 24.82 13.57 12.61 6.45 002092 12.67 -61.89 1859.61 9.26 17.23 90.44 9.51 8.70 7.42 600075 8.06 63.01 68.13 14.60 12.92 9.05 8.47 7.39 6.55 600141 26.72 106.29 172.63 14.31 17.05 19.79 17.58 15.38 13.14 600096 17.11 79.09 733.06 4.40 12.44 31.82 13.87 13.29 11.82 600389 40.99 11.62 49.28 21.10 19.98 18.26 24.35 20.11 16.76 600141 26.72 106.29 172.63 14.31 17.05 19.79 17.58 15.38 13.14 000683 8.52 -89.89 3129.40 11.56 27.43 118.79 14.23 12.76 10.01 600328 18.57 -38.12 122.94 8.39 9.33 11.53 14.40 13.29 12.15 603077 2.74 -92.08 2906.66 32.39 27.63 306.29 19.66 14.85 11.63 603260 106.09 27.71 106.90 19.34 19.84 22.34 39.22 32.87 27.42 300821 14.84 -49.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 49.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 600596 24.05 26.85 179.59 4.83 6.86 15.19 12.04 11.48 10.75 600623 9.47 -32.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 000830 21.46 -52.22 331.61 12.56 16.98 22.70 11.48 10.20 8.72 Wind Wind Wind 433 / 34 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50034 / 34 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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