苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告.pdf

苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告 征求意见稿 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low- carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland Draft for Comments 梁希 1,2 ，潘巍 3 ，江梦菲 1 ，郭怡璞 1 ，吕京弘 4 ，李佳 2 ，陈欣宇 4 Xi Liang1,2, Wei Pan3, Mengfei Jiang1, Yipu Guo1, Jinghong Lyu4, Jia Li2, Xinyu Chen4 1爱丁堡大学商学院 1University of Edinburgh Business School 2 中英（广东）CCUS中心 2 UK-China (Guangdong) CCUS Centre 3 香港大学土木工程系 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Hong Kong 4 独立咨询顾问 4 Independent Consultant 二零一六年三月 March 2016 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland 鸣 谢 Acknowledgement 这份报告由苏格兰资金协会与香港研究资助 局（X_HKU711/14）提供资金支持。 This work described in this report was supported by a grant from the SFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme sponsored by the Scottish Funding Council and the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (X_HKU711/14). 感谢 Philip Curry 为这份报告提出的评论与 修改意见。 We would like to express gratitude to Philip Curry for the useful comments, revisions and engagement through the writing process of this report. Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland 主要发现 Key Messages 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 | -3- 主要发现 Key Messages 爱丁堡已有一些正在将现有传统商业建筑进行改造或翻修成零排和低碳理念 建筑的具体实例。 There are concrete examples of retrofitting or refurbishing existing commercial buildings to low-carbon design in Edinburgh 初步实物改造方案分析报告显示，保留零排放和低碳设计建筑改造会带来巨 大价值。 A preliminary real option analysis shows a substantial option value in keeping low carbon building (LZB) retrofit option open 新建筑应一律强制设计为低碳排放建筑改造状态或低碳排放状态。 New buildings should be mandated to design in a Low Carbon Building Retrofit Readiness status or LCB Readiness 1.1 建筑行业中的能源消耗 1.1 Energy Consumption in the Building Sector 随着全球经济的迅速增长，人类对能源的 需求和消耗也日益增大，世界能源危机及其 在使用过程中对环境带来的严重负面影响日 益突出。截止到 2013 年，在过去的 20 年里， 世界总能源消耗在 2013 年增长了 48%，达到 9321 百万吨。同时二氧化碳的排放量增长了 56%，达到 32190 公吨。两者的年平均增长率 分别为 2.1% 和 2.4% ( 图 1)。欧盟多个国家自 1992 年联合国气候变化框架公约（ UNFCCC） 后，开始致力于处理能源和环境问题。虽然能 源消耗问题和二氧化碳排放量在这之后得到 了一定程度上的控制，欧盟国家的能源消耗和 二氧化碳排放量仍然分别占世界总量的 12% 和 10% (IEA, 2015)。 The rapid growth of the world economy requires substantial demand and consumption for energy, resulting in exhaustion of energy resources and adverse environmental impacts. During the last two decades, the world s total final energy 第一章 引言 Chapter One Introduction 苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland -4- | 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 consumption increased by 48% to 9,321 Mtoe while CO 2 emissions increased by 56%, reaching 32,190 Mt in 2013, with an average annual increase of 2.1% and 2.4% respectively (Fig. 1). The European Union (EU) countries endeavoured to tackle energy and environment issues after the agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. Although the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions seemed subsequently to be under control (Fig. 2), final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the EU contributed 12% and 10% of the world s total numbers respectively (IEA, 2015). 能源末端消耗通常主要以工业部门为主， 其他行业包括农业，商业和公共服务业，房地 产紧跟其后，其余的部分由交通部门和非能 源利用组成。然而，发达国家建筑行业的能 耗超过了其他所有的主要行业且占总能耗的 20%-40%(Perez-Lombard, et al., 2008)。 2004 年 欧盟建筑能耗占总能耗的 37%，超过工业部门 的 28% 和交通部门的 32%。 到 2010 年，欧盟 的建筑能耗占总能耗的比重增加到了 40% (EU Commission, 2010)。以英国为例，建筑的内部 温度调节所占能源消耗的比例多达 42%(DECC, 2010) 且该行业占英国二氧化碳排放总量的 43% (DCLG, 2015)。该数据略微高于欧盟的数 据，部分原因是由于重工业向服务业转型的结 果 (Perez-Lombard, et al., 2008)。 Final energy consumption is usually dominated by the industry sector, followed by others including agriculture, commercial and public services, residential and non-specified, the rest being composed of the transport sector and non-energy use. However, the building sector in developed countries accounts for 20-40% of the total final energy consumption and has exceeded the other major sectors (Perez-Lombard, et al., 2008). In 2004, energy consumption in building sector in the EU was 37% of final energy, bigger than industry (28%) and transport (32%). In 2010, it increased to 40% of total energy consumption in the EU (EU Commission, 2010). In the UK, up to 42% of the energy consumption is spentin heating and cooling the buildings (DECC, 2010) and 43% of all the UK s carbon emissions are caused by the building sector (DCLG, 2015). This is slightly above the European figure and partly due to the shift away from heavy industry towards service sector activities (Perez-Lombard, et al., 2008). 此外，建筑行业仍在扩张。居民建筑和 非居民建筑的二氧化碳排放量分别占大约英 国二氧化碳总排放量的 25% 和 18% (DECC, 2015)。其中英国的非居民建筑楼层区域预计 到 2050 年将增加 35%， 同时 60% 的现有建筑 仍然处于使用期 (LCICG, 2012)。 苏格兰的公 共服务业类建筑在 2013 年排放了 1.2 百万吨 二氧化碳当量，占苏格兰温室气体排放量的 2.3%。假如建筑业和其他行业的发展在不善 的废物管理制度管理下，或资源利用效率较低 的情况下，都将会导致危害环境的严重后果 (DCLG, 2015)。所以，对于建筑业来说，降低 能耗，特别是降低碳排放量是应对气候变化问 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland 第一章 引言 Chapter One Introduction 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 | -5- 题的一个重要举措。对建筑业的低碳创新改造 将给英国提供一个良好的契机，帮助其提高能 源使用效率并降低温室气体排放量。 Furthermore, the building sector is expanding. The energy used by domestic and non-domestic buildings accounts for approximately 25% and 18% of UK carbon emissions (DECC, 2015), and it is expected that non-domestic floor area in the UK will increase by 35% by 2050, while 60% of existing buildings will still be in use (LCICG, 2012). Public sector buildings in Scotland emitted 1.2 MtCO 2 e, which represented 2.3% of Scottish GHG emissions in 2013. Buildings and other developments can also be environmentally hazardous through poor waste management or inefficient use of resources (DCLG, 2015). Therefore, reducing energy use, and in particular emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the building sector are essential for tackling climate change issue and retrofitting existing buildings offers a significant opportunity to help improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse emissions in the UK. 1.2 苏格兰的建筑业能源政策 1.2 BuildingEnergy Policy in Scotland 苏格兰政府对实现其 2050 年目标（即将 苏格兰地区的净温室气体排放量在 1990 的水 平上降低 80%）做出了郑重的承诺。其中， 中期（2020 年）的目标是将苏格兰地区的净 温室气体排放量在 1990 的水平上至少降低 42%。此外，在 2011 年至 2019 期间的每一 年的年碳排放量目标须和该期间的排放减少 量保持一致，进而使其能够达成中期目标和 图1-1 自1990年以来世界能源消耗总量和二氧化碳排放量 来源：国际能源署（IEA） Figure 1. Worlds total final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions since 1990. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA). 4 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 World Energy Consumption World CO2 emissions 苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland -6- | 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 2050 目标。另外， 2020 年至 2050 年期间的碳 排放年度目标必须比前一年度的目标至少减 少 3% ( 气候改变法案 , 2009)。 The Scottish Government have declared a strong commitment to achieve the 2050 target defined as 80% lower net Scottish emissions than the 1990 baseline. The interim target, which is set for year 2020, is at least 42% lower net Scottish emissions than the baseline. Moreover, for each year in the period 2011-2019, the annual carbon emission target must be set at an amount that is consistent with a reduction over that period of net Scottish emissions amounts which would allow the interim and the 2050 target to be met. For each year in the period 2020-2050, the target must be set at an amount that is at least 3% less than the target for the preceding year (Climate Change Bill, 2009). 苏格兰建筑行动法案是由议会于 2003 年 2 月 20 日通过的，该法案对建筑、建筑标准、 核查和认证、建筑物权证等方面制订了相关规 定。之后，2007 年沙利文报告提出了关于建 设低碳建筑的路线图、降低碳排放量的期望和 建筑标准中涉及能源利用效率等问题。该报告 同时还建议所有非居民建筑物的所有者应执 行对二氧化碳排放量和能源利用的评估并同 时开展建筑升级改造工程。 The bill for the Building (Scotland) Act was passed by the parliament on 20th February 2003, including provisions with respect to buildings, building standards, verification and certification, building warrants etc. In 2007, the Sullivan Report proposed a route map for delivery of very low carbon buildings, setting aspirations for carbon abatement and energy efficiency within Figure. 2. EU 28 countries total final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions since 1990. Source: International Energy Agency (IEA). 图1-2 自1990年欧盟28个国家总最终能耗和二氧化碳排放量 来源：国际能源署（IEA） 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 1.05 1.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 9 9 8 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 0 1 3 EU 28 Energy Consumption EU 28 CO2 emissions Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland 第一章 引言 Chapter One Introduction 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 | -7- building standards. The report also suggestedthat all owners of non-domestic buildings should conduct a carbon and energy assessment and produce a programme for upgrading. 2007 年沙利文报告同时提出关于如何提 升现有建筑物碳的能源利用率的方法的若干 设想。该报告建议引入一项法律条例，条例要 求所有非居民建筑的所有者实施对二氧化碳 排放量和能源利用的评估，并同时开展建筑升 级改造工程，该条例已被纳入苏格兰气候变化 法案第 50 条。 The Sullivan Report (2007) also considered ways in which carbon and energy performance of existing buildings can be improved. Introduction of legislation to require all owners of non- domestic buildings to conduct assessments of carbon and energy and produce a programme for upgrading were recommended, and led to the inclusion of Section 50 in the Climate Change (Scotland) Bill. 2009 苏格兰气候变化行动法案重点强调 了非居民建筑的能源利用情况、提升能源利用 率和再生热能等问题。同年，苏格兰政府发布 了可再生能源框架以支持欧盟可再生能源的 需求将在 2020 年达到 20% 的目标。 Therefore, energy performance of non-domestic buildings, and promotion of energy efficiency and renewable heat were emphasized in the 2009 Climate Change (Scotland) Act. In the same year, the Scottish Government issued the Renewable Energy Framework to advocate the EU target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, and play its role in meeting the contribution proposed for the UK for 15% renewable energy and aim to go further than that (to 20%). 2007 年沙利文报告中有关的建议基本全 已实施运行。在最近发表的 2013 年沙利文 报告 - 苏格兰低碳建筑标准策略中，为了能 让低碳建筑标准更好的实施，该报告承继了 以往报告中的建议，并回顾了为应对欧盟自 2019 年要求建立近零排放新建筑的要求 的相关能源标准。 Almost all of the recommendations from the original Sullivan Report in 2007 have now been taken forward. In the most recently Sullivan Report in 2013: A Low Carbon Building Standards Strategy for Scotland: to support a more successful implementation of low carbon building standards, and subject to the previous recommendation, subsequent review of energy standards were suggested to be programmed to align with the EU Directive requirement for nearly zero energy new buildings from 2019. 苏格兰政府同时利用该建筑标准和规划 系统帮助建设低碳建筑。苏格兰政府的建筑标 准部门在 2015 年 10 月 1 日发布了关于建筑标 准规则的新指导信息。其中包括主要针对第六 部分（能源）居民建筑和非居民建筑的新技术 手册。该标准现在同时适用于非居民建筑的扩 张，且该建筑的总占地面积范围将扩大至少 100 平方米或者 25%。图 1-3 总结了苏格兰建 筑能源政策在过去 12 年的发展。 low carbon buildings. The Scottish Government, Building Standards Division (BSD) has published 苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland -8- | 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 new guidance regarding Building Standards compliance from 1 October 2015, including new Technical Handbooks with major revisions to Section 6 (Energy) Domestic 福汀等 , 2008; 斯 哥约瓦等 , 2008; 杨等 , 2008); (2)R 谭等 , 2007; 史迪奇等 , 2007); (3) 在不确定或较为灵活的能源系统下的公共能 源政策决策的调查研究 ( 李和新恩 , 2005; 马 雷克和卡皮奥 , 2006; 林等 , 2007; 福兹和斯哥 约瓦 , 2010; 朱和范 , 2011)。 The existing ROA studies in the energy sector could be classified into three clusters: (1) analysis of the private investment decisions under market uncertainty, e.g. electricity, fossil fuel, and/or carbon markets (Rothwell, 2006; Fortin et al, 2008; Szolgayova et al, 2008; Yang et al, 2008); (2) optimisation of R Tan et al, 2007; Siddiqui et al, 2007); (3) investigation of public energy policy decision-making in an uncertain or flexible energy system (Lee and Shih, 2005; Marreco and Carpio, 2006; Lin et al, 2007; Fuss and Szolgayova, 2010; Zhu and Fan, 2011). 此报告的研究方法论是建立于上述 ROA 研究成果上的。我们采用项目投资人（例如商 业建筑的投资人）的角度来调查分析商业建筑 改造后的期权价值。不确定性是推动期权价值 的一个因素。若干不确定因素可能潜在地影 第二章 方法论 Chapter Two Methodology 苏格兰爱丁堡改造低碳商业建筑价值评估报告 Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland -14- | 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 响投资决策，其中包含技术贡献率（或自适 应率），全球低碳碳建筑的内部容量，天然气、 电力的价格和碳价格。 The methodology of this study builds on the knowledge and understanding gained from the existing ROA studies described above. We take the perspective of a project investor (e.g. commercial building investor) investigating the value of exercising a retrofit option in a commercial building. Uncertainty is the driver of the option value. A number of uncertainties may potentially affect this investment decision, including the technology progress ratio (or learning rate), global installed capacity of low carbon building, gas and electricity prices and carbon price. High learning rate would drive down the economic of scales, which helps to increase attraction of retrofitting option. The capacity should be examined to provide constraint of low carbon building worldwide. The price of gas and electricity price and carbon price are both positively correlated to building retrofitting. 由于在模化碳价格的过程中存在显著的政 策不确定因素，因此在现实中政策变化的影响 比碳市场更有可能性成为低碳碳建筑改造的推 动因素。在此报告中，我们简化了假设，并假 定投资决策仅由市场因素所决定。为了确定改 造低碳建筑的可能性，随机自由现金流模型被 同于为了预估低碳碳建筑每一年产生的未来现 金流的现值，建立了随机自由现金流模型。第 T 年未来现金流的现值计算方法为 ： Because there are significant policy uncertainties in modelling the carbon price and the regulatory motive other than existing carbon markets are, in reality, likely a possible driver for low carbon building retrofit. In this study, we simplify the assumption and assume the investment is driven solely by market factors. To identify the probability of retrofitting a low-carbon building, a stochastic free cash flow model has been built to estimate each years net present value of future cash flows generated by low carbon retrofit. The net present value of the future cash flow at year T is given by: (2-1) 年 商业建筑在决策点时的使用寿命 year Present life of the commercial building at a decision node 年 建筑的使用年限 year Lifetime of building $ 第T年的未来现金流的现值 $ Present value of the future cash flow at year T $ 第T年的租金收入 $ Revenue from rental at year t $ 第T年的投资现金流 $ Investing cash flow at year t $ 第 T 年的非燃料和非碳运营现金流量 $ Non-fuel and non-carbon operating cash flow at year t $ 第T年电力、天谈起和碳的费用 Ft $ Payment for electricity, gas and carbon at year t Assessing the Value of Commercial Building Low-carbon Retrofit in Edinburgh City in Scotland 第二章 方法论 Chapter Two Methodology 中英（广东）CCUS 中心 | -15- % 私人票据贴现率 ( 所需的内部收益率) % Private Discount Rate (required internal rate of return) 将建筑改造成低碳建筑的主要驱动因素是 假设建筑物所带来的收入会随着租金的提升、 二氧化碳排放量和能源花费的降低而有所提 升。由于改造后未来价值的不确定性，此报告 采用强有力的概率分析方法蒙特卡洛来分 析此 种情况。 The main driver for retrofitting a building to low carbon building is assumed to be an increase in revenue driven by increasing rent and a reduction of carbon and energy bill. The value of a future retrofit is inherently uncertain and a robust exploration with probabilistic Monte-Carlo analysis has been conducted to take this into consideration. 理论上，增加时间序列的个数会导致高期 货价值，但是实际的投资决策更可能是每一年 做出的，因为评估一个高等投资决策会产生成 魔沉没成本（例如详细的施工设计和经济评 估，特别的电路板组件）。因此，此报告运用 近似等同于真实的决策过程的离散时间间隔 的方法进行分析 ( 普兰缇哥 , 1998).。 此处假 设决策仅仅在每一年的年末被提出。换句话 说，如果一个改造项目在第 t 年开始实施，进 一步的设施升级可以在 t+N 年进行。对于一 个拥有 50 年经济寿命的建筑来说，改造过程 有 24 个时间序列，或决策点。 In theory, increasing the number of time-steps would result in higher option values, but actual investment decisions are more likely to be made on an ann