宏观经济专题：财政“后置”对经济的影响.pdf

1 / 18 2021 06 20 - -2021.6.19 - -2021.6.18 - -2021.6.16 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 S0790121060023 2021 1-5 32.3% 2016 37.4% 2020 22.6% 25% 1-5 16.0% 40% 3 2021 26 11.3 2020 20.6% 52.9% 2019 2021 5 64% 2020 13 2020 5 902 / 18 1 “ ” . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 1.3 “ ” . 7 2 . 10 2.1 . 10 2.2 . 10 2.3 . 11 3 . 11 3.1 . 11 3.2 . 13 3.3 . 15 4 . 16 1 . 4 2 . 4 3 2021 . 4 4 2021 1-5 . 5 5 2021 . 5 6 2021 . 5 7 2021 2019 . 6 8 2021 2019 . 6 9 2021 5 . 6 10 2020 5 . 7 11 2021 5 . 7 12 2021 . 7 13 2021 . 7 14 2020 5 . 8 15 2021 . 8 16 . 8 17 2021 “ ” 86%. 8 18 . 9 19 . 9 20 28 . 10 21 . 10 22 . 10 23 . 10 24 - -14 . 11 25 -11 . 11 26 30 . 12 27 30 . 123 / 18 28 30 . 12 29 30 . 12 30 100 . 13 31 100 . 13 32 100 . 13 33 . 13 34 . 14 35 . 14 36 . 14 37 . 14 38 . 15 39 . 15 40 . 15 41 . 15 42 . 16 43 (100 ) . 16 44 . 16 45 LME3 . 16 1 2021 . 4 2 “ ” . 5 3 . 6 4 . 11 5 . 114 / 18 1 1.1 1-5 0.9% 4.9% 32.3% 2016 37.4% 2020 22.6% 25% 1-5 16.0% 40% 1 2 Wind Wind 3 2019 2020 9 10 1 2021 3 2021 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 2018 12 2019 3 2019 11 2020 2 2020 4 2020 7 2020 11 2021 4 2021 6 2019 2020 2021 ( )5 / 18 2019 7.8% 25% 2021 2 4 2021 1-5 ( ) ( ) (%) 2018 999 139 13.9 2018 258 2 0.6 2019 980 276 28.1 2019 676 175 25.9 2019 2169 169 7.8 2019 379 26 6.8 2019 526 9 1.7 1.2 2021 26 11.3 2020 20.6% 52.9% 2019 5 2021 6 2021 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 ( ) 1-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 ( ) (%) ( ) 25.6 52.9 13.3 3.4 2.2 2.6 2021 (%)6 / 18 7 2021 2019 8 2021 2019 2021 5 64% 2020 13 2021 5 95% 3 9 2021 5 2020 2020 2021 3-5 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 2019 2021 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (%) 2019 2021 2021-03-05 2021-05-06 2021-05-20 49 51 36 64 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (%) 2020 20217 / 18 10 2020 5 11 2021 5 Wind Wind 1.3 12 2021 13 2021 Wind Wind 0 2,200 4,400 6,600 8,800 11,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 01-03 01-17 01-31 02-14 02-28 03-14 03-28 04-11 04-25 05-09 05-23 06-06 06-20 ( ) 2021 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 2019-05 2020-05 2021-05 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 2020 20218 / 18 14 2020 5 15 2021 Wind 2021 5 90% 5 86% 2020 5 16 17 2021 86% Wind -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 (%) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 2.6 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 0.5 89.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 50% 50%,60%) 60%,70%) 70%,80%) 80%,90%) 90%,95%) 95%,100% (%) + (2021 ) 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 1 2 3 4 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) (9 / 18 18 19 Wind Wind 1 2 3 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 (%) (%) GDP GDP ( ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 (%) (%) (10 / 18 2 2.1 6 12 -6 18 28 1.7% 4.08 / 4.7% 22.77 / 20 28 21 Wind Wind 2.2 6 12 -6 18 0.77% 6.44 92.32 2.00% - -14 -11 22 23 Wind Wind 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 01-11 01-18 01-25 02-01 02-08 02-15 02-22 03-01 03-08 03-15 03-22 03-29 04-05 04-12 04-19 04-26 05-03 05-10 05-17 05-24 05-31 06-07 06-14 ( ) 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05 6.10 6.15 6.20 6.25 6.30 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 01-08 01-15 01-22 01-29 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 100 (11 / 18 24 - -14 25 -11 Wind Wind 2.3 6 12 -6 18 3.5% 5.6% 7.4% 0.9% 4 -3.5% -2.3% -5.1% -4.7% -0.5% -5.6% -1.5% -1.9% -0.9% -1.0% -2.7% -0.8% Wind 5 PTA PVC -3.5% 0.9% -1.4% -3.5% -6.4% -6.9% -4.7% -3.5% 0.6% -4.9% -0.2% -3.9% -5.3% -7.4% -1.3% -3.8% -0.7% -2.2% -2.4% -1.5% -0.3% -1.1% -5.9% 0.4% -3.5% -0.2% -0.1% 0.7% Wind 3 3.1 6 07 -6 13 30 30 394 82 20.0% 210 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 01-08 01-15 01-22 01-29 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 - ( ) -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 6.20 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 6.60 01-04 01-11 01-18 01-25 02-01 02-08 02-15 02-22 03-01 03-08 03-15 03-22 03-29 04-05 04-12 04-19 04-26 05-03 05-10 05-17 05-24 05-31 06-07 06-14 ( ) USDCNH12 / 18 15.2% 102 14.7% 26 30 27 30 Wind Wind 28 30 29 30 Wind Wind 6 07 -6 13 100 1287 9.1% 3094 / 73.8% 19.87 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 (13 / 18 30 100 31 100 Wind Wind 32 100 33 Wind Wind 3.2 6 12 -6 18 Myspic 195.77 1.3% 61.2% 0.6% 150.75 1.6% 2635 / 1.9% 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 800 1,300 1,800 2,300 2,800 3,300 3,800 4,300 4,800 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( / ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 (14 / 18 34 35 Wind Wind 36 37 Wind Wind 6 12 -6 18 4.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4.7% 0.4% 1.9% 10.9% 11820 / 3.5% 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 Myspic MySpic MySpic 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 (%) 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 20-12-18 21-01-01 21-01-15 21-01-29 21-02-12 21-02-26 21-03-12 21-03-26 21-04-09 21-04-23 21-05-07 21-05-21 21-06-04 21-06-18 ( / )15 / 18 38 39 Wind Wind 40 41 Wind Wind 3.3 6 12 -6 18 100 1640 / 962.5 / 3.8% 100 77.98% 0.7% 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 12-24 12-31 01-07 01-14 01-21 01-28 02-04 02-11 02-18 02-25 03-04 03-11 03-18 03-25 04-01 04-08 04-15 04-22 04-29 05-06 05-13 05-20 05-27 06-03 06-10 06-17 1# A00 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 12-24 12-31 01-07 01-14 01-21 01-28 02-04 02-11 02-18 02-25 03-04 03-11 03-18 03-25 04-01 04-08 04-15 04-22 04-29 05-06 05-13 05-20 05-27 06-03 06-10 06-17 1# 1# ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.0 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 01-22 01-29 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 12-25 01-01 01-08 01-15 01-22 01-29 02-05 02-12 02-19 02-26 03-05 03-12 03-19 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 ( ) ( ) (16 / 18 42 43 (100 ) Wind Wind 6 12 -6 18 LME3 WTI 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% LME3 -8.5% -3.1% -2.4% -6.9% 44 45 LME3 Wind Wind 4 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 2019-04 2019-06 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 （% ） 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 01-05 01-19 02-02 02-16 03-02 03-16 03-30 04-13 04-27 05-11 05-25 06-08 ( ): WTI ( / ) 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 12-09 12-23 01-06 01-20 02-03 02-17 03-03 03-17 03-31 04-14 04-28 05-12 05-26 06-09 LME3 LME3 ( / ) ( /17 / 18 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50018 / 18 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065