物管行业2021年中期投资策略.pdf

2021 S0790520060001 S0790520100001 2021 05 101. 2. 1 24 2020 161 72% 2 2020 3 2020 24 29% 15% 4 3. 1 2 4. 2020 16 16.6% 25.3% 20171 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 51.1 45 24 24 2020 1141 43% 2017 40% 2020 161 72% 2017 68% 1 2020 24 43% 2 2020 24 72% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2017 2018 2019 2020 24 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2017 2018 2019 2020 241.1 2020 1 2020 5 50% 2021-2023 2021 50% 2021-2023 50-60% 2021 2022-2023 30%-50% 58% 3 40% 30% 3 5 2021 2022 2023 80% 80% 55% 2021 50%-60% 3 40-50% 5 5 38% 2-3 30% 20%-30% 2021 3 3 44% 5 30% 2020 5 36% 31% 3 45% 45% 43% 35% 41% 32% 3 40% 50% 40% 2021-2023 4 5.5 8 3 50% 50% 5 40% 5 40% 21 2 2021 1.5 101.2 3 2020 3% 32% 49% 80% 65% 79% 83% 60% 41% 73% 45% 69% 30% 64% 35% 55% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2017 2020 28% 0% 24% 37% 63% 26% 28% 54% 51% 22% 42% 32% 26% 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2017 2020 4 20201.3 5 2020 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 6 20201.3 72.1 16 8 16 2020 2020 9.9% 12.1% 15.0% 16.6% 19.0% 20.9% 24.7% 25.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 46.9% 47.1% 48.1% 47.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 9 16 20202.1 2020 102.2 11 2020 10% 145% 274% 269% 27% 13% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2019 2020 110% 223% 31% 37% -9% 10% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2019 2020 12 20203 G B C G 2020 B C 13 G B C 20203 2015 1.0 2018 2.0 2020 70% 2019 2016 2018 2020 14 20204 2020 24 29% 15% 2017 24% 25% 28% 29% 10% 11% 13% 15% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2017 2018 2019 2020 24 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2018 2019 2020 15 24 16 20175 Wind Wind 2021 5 10 1 =0.83 2 PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 6098.HK 1987 26.9 41.6 62.5 93.7 47.7 31.8 21.2 6666.HK 1169 26.5 45.3 67.8 98.0 25.8 17.3 11.9 1516.HK 575 6.0 12.6 20.0 28.0 45.8 28.8 20.5 9666.HK 308 6.2 9.9 15.9 25.4 31.0 19.3 12.1 3319.HK 387 17.5 23.0 30.4 40.5 16.8 12.8 9.5 0873.HK 388 6.9 13.0 21.2 32.3 29.9 18.3 12.0 1995.HK 250 3.9 6.1 8.8 12.7 41.3 28.5 19.7 2869.HK 326 7.1 9.2 12.7 19.0 35.3 25.7 17.2 6049.HK 298 6.7 6.7 8.6 10.8 44.5 34.7 27.6 001914.SZ 215 4.4 7.0 9.3 11.8 30.7 23.1 18.1 1755.HK 171 4.5 6.5 9.4 13.5 26.3 18.3 12.7 2669.HK 223 5.9 7.7 10.1 13.3 29.1 22.1 16.7 002968.SZ 73 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 40.3 28.5 21.5 1209.HK 805 8.2 14.5 19.8 26.4 55.5 40.6 30.4 9909.HK 165 3.1 4.4 6.1 8.6 37.4 26.8 19.1 3913.HK 121 3.2 6.7 11.1 21.0 17.9 10.9 5.76