食品饮料行业2021年中期投资策略.pdf

2021 S0790520030003 2021 05 071. 2021 1-4 3% 300 1.5pct +17.0% +2.3% +1.1% 2021 1-4 PE 2020 17% 2021 18% 3% 2.2021 1 2 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020Q2 3. 2021 4. 2021 2021 5.目 录 CONTENTS 1 2 3 CONTENTS 4 51.1 2020 1-4 Wind 2021 4 30 2020 1-4 3% 300 1.5pct +17.0% +2.3% +1.1% -18.1% -20.1% -27.8% 1 2020 1-4 17/28 2 2021 1-4 Wind 2021 4 30 -1.5 -3.0 (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 300 2021 1-4 % 17.0 2.3 1.1 -0.6 -3.0 -3.5 -4.0 -7.6 -18.1 -20.1 -27.8 (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 2021 1-4 1.1 2020 1-4 Wind 2021 4 30 2021 1-4 2021 1-4 PE 2020 17% 2021 18% 3% 17% 2021 20% 1% 18% 2021 14% 6% 2021 3 2020 1-4 -1% -6% -3% 20% 14% 18% -17% -18% -17% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% PE1.2 Wind 2021 4 30 2021 2021 1-4 10 ST 49% 39% 38% 32% 32% 65% 48% 43% 33% V 4 2021 1-4 66% -46% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% ST ST 2021 1-41.3 2021Q1 Wind 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020Q4 10.1% 9.9% 0.25pct 2021 2021Q1 300 2020 2021Q2 2021Q2 5 2021Q1 9.9% % 9.01 8.45 7.61 6.86 7.05 8.62 10.10 9.85 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q11.3 2021 4 2021 4 2021 4 5.6% 300 5.2pct +17.9% +4.6% +3.9% -8.0% 4 Wind 2021 4 30 6 2021 4 5/28 7 2021 4 Wind 2021 4 30 5.6 0.4 (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 300 2021 4 % 17.9 15.7 9.3 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.6 4.6 3.9 -8.0 (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 2021 4 2.1 Wind 2020Q1 2021Q1 GDP 2020Q1 +18.3% 2019Q1 10% 2021Q1 33.9% 2019Q1 8.5% 2019 8 2021Q1 GDP 18.3% 9 2021 1-3 Wind 18.30 (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 GDP % (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 :2.1 Wind 2021 1-3 23% 52% 2020 1-5 1-6 2021 2021 1-3 10 2021 11 2021 Wind 23.2% 52.1% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 : : : : -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 602.2 2021 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020Q2 2021Q2 2020 Wind 12 2021Q1 Wind 13 2021Q1 22.6% 14.6% 13.2% 13.2% 1.3% 3.8% 11.7% 11.0% 22.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 白 酒增 速 11.7% 16.5% 20.3% 14.9% 4.1% 21.0% 13.7% 14.8% 28.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 非 白酒 增 速2.3 DHA SA 14 152.3 12.32.4 2021 2021 2020 ST3.1 2021Q1 2020 22.4% 2019 23.9% 2020 17.6% 2019 28.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 Wind 16 2021Q1 22.4% Wind 17 2020Q1 17.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4003.2 2021Q1 2021Q1 822 50.7% 2020Q1 2019Q1 2021Q1 2.9% 2020Q1 2021Q1 Wind 18 2021 3 Wind 19 2021 1-3 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 100 200 300 400 500 - -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-02 2021-03 -3.3 2021Q1 2020Q1 A 33.9% 189.4% 1 2 3 2021 93 20 2021Q1A 33.9% 189.4% Wind 21 2021 4 21 +17.1% Wind 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 2021-03 / -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 A A3.4 2021Q1 2021Q1 23.4% 18.1% 2020 2021 2020 2021Q1 22.8% 1.0pct 2021 2019 4 5 2020Q2 2021Q2 23 2021Q1 Wind 22 2021Q1 Wind 23.4% 18.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 43.9% 39.7% 11.1% 8.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 464.1 2021Q1 245.92 +10.7% 26.43 21.9% 47.77 +146.5% 17,5% +9.6pct 2021Q1 91.91% +0.03pct / / 2.02%/6.34%/0.04% -0.59pct/+0.17pct/0.00pct +3.96pct 13.64% 2021Q1 -2.0pct 49.72% 2021 2021 2020 10.5% 2021 1 2 KA 3 4 5 2017 2021 20214.2 2020 2021 2020 441 +13.9% 2.8 +5.3% +8.2% 83.7 +9.8% 13.2 4.6% +15.1% 2020 2021 2000 42.15% 49.9 2020 210.65 +66.04% 55.1 2020 2021Q1 76.43% 0.1pct 13.73% +0.41pct 1.46pct 7.09% 0.44pct 3.91% 20194.3 2020Q1 68.4 +79% 2021Q1 45% 108% 2021Q1 3.44pct 17.95% 2.3pct 73.54% 5.94pct 12.49% 2020Q1 2.19pct 3.25% 0.07pct 29.8% 2021 2020 30% 20214.4 2021 2019 M6+ M3 2021 2019 2020 1/5 10% 2021Q1 2.42pct 76.16% 1.46pct 16.49% 2020 / -0.43pct /-0.50 pct 2021 2021 2019 2020 M6+ 600-800 M34.5 2021 2020 2021Q1 21.7% 27% 17.6% 21.3% 20.8% 30% 284 7335 2021Q1 4.9pct 2.5% 2021 184.6 2020 2021Q1 2020 14.3% 12.5% 1.6% 2021Q1 2020Q1 2021 1813% 30% 2021Q1 2021Q1 60.1% 2.5pct 2021Q1 8.3pct 24.2% 14% 20214.7 DHA SA DHA SA 1 ARA 10% 2 DHA 200% DHA DHA DHA 3 SA 100% SA 2.66pct 2021Q1 2.44pct SA DHA 0.57pct 2020Q1 2021Q1 1.46pct ARA DHA4.8 EPS PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2006.8 42.8 48.56 54.73 46.9 41.3 36.7 285.0 6.2 7.15 8.47 46.0 39.9 33.6 192.5 5.2 6.16 7.37 37.0 31.3 26.1 410.3 5.47 7.17 9.36 75.0 57.2 43.8 62.2 2.6 3.09 3.6 23.9 20.1 17.3 227.3 4.69 5.63 6.81 48.5 40.4 33.4 41.0 1.38 1.59 1.89 29.7 25.8 21.7 17.4 0.43 0.58 0.8 40.6 30.1 21.8 36.6 1.99 2.26 2.6 18.4 16.2 14.1 46.7 1.22 1.51 1.89 38.3 30.9 24.7 40.0 1.12 1.39 1.68 35.7 28.7 23.8 169.5 2.33 2.85 3.4 72.7 59.5 49.9 18.0 0.36 0.43 0.51 49.9 41.8 35.3 28.9 1.08 1.36 1.72 26.8 21.3 16.8 49.3 1.35 1.6 1.92 36.5 30.8 25.7 42.5 1.33 1.88 2.56 31.9 22.6 16.6 86.3 1.59 1.99 2.45 54.3 43.4 35.2 18.6 0.65 0.82 0.98 28.6 22.7 19.0 39.3 1.39 1.66 1.83 28.2 23.6 21.4 78.4 2.36 2.78 3.38 33.2 28.2 23.2 2 Wind 2021 4 305