电子行业深度：消费电子需求回暖面板行业景气超预期.pdf

2021 05 08 2021 5G 21Q1 20Q1 3.27% 4.00% 0.73 5G 2020 1-3 9797.3 100.1% 122 48.8% 5G 52.5% 5G 5G Q1 2021 3 4 TV IT 2020H2 TCL Mini LED 20Q4 100% 2021 PC 5G S0680518120002 S0680520070004 S0680520080002 1 2021-05- 06 2 VR 2021-04-25 3 2021- 04-25 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2020-05 2020-09 2020-12 2021-04 3002021 05 08 P.2 . 5 1.1 . 5 1.2 . 6 1.3 . 7 5G . 8 . 10 3.1 . 10 3.2 . 11 3.3 . 12 3.4 . 14 3.5 . 15 . 16 4.1 . 16 4.2 . 17 4.3 . 19 4.4 TCL IT . 20 . 20 5.1 . 20 5.2 . 22 5.3 . 26 5.4 . 26 5.5 . 27 5.6 . 28 . 29 6.1 . 29 6.2 . 30 6.3 . 31 6.4 . 32 . 33 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 % . 7 4 % . 7 5 % . 8 6 . 8 7 . 8 8 5G . 9 9 . 9 10 . 102021 05 08 P.3 11 . 10 12 . 10 13 . 11 14 . 11 15 . 12 16 . 12 17 . 13 18 . 13 19 . 14 20 . 14 21 . 15 22 . 15 23 TCL . 16 24 . 16 25 . 16 26 . 17 27 . 17 28 . 17 29 . 17 30 . 17 31 . 18 32 . 18 33 2020&21Q1 . 21 34 . 21 35 . 21 36 . 22 37 . 22 38 2019 MLCC . 22 39 5G . 23 40 5G . 23 41 iPhone MLCC . 23 42 PC . 24 43 PC . 24 44 BEV+PHEV . 24 45 . 25 46 MLCC . 25 47 21Q1 1uf . 25 48 21Q1 1uf 1206+ . 26 49 . 26 50 . 29 51 . 29 52 . 29 53 . 30 54 . 30 55 . 30 56 . 302021 05 08 P.4 57 . 30 58 . 312021 05 08 P.5 2021 5G 1.1 2021 TCL 1 Wind2021 05 08 P.6 1.2 50% 2 Wind2021 05 08 P.7 1.3 28 21Q1 12.17% 11.47% 0.7% 3 % Wind 21Q1 20Q1 2.86% 2.34% 0.52 20Q1 0.43% 0.33% 0.1 4 % Wind 21Q1 20Q1 3.27% 4.00% 0.73 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 17Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q1 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 17Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q12021 05 08 P.8 5 % Wind 5G 5G 2020 4 12 1-3 9797.3 100.1% 1 2 3 92.8% 240.9% 65.9% 122 48.8% 5G 52.5% 6 7 5G 5G 2021 3 5G 2749.8 76.2% 5G 5G 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-212021 05 08 P.9 8 5G IDC 2024 5G 29% 5G IDC 2020 5G 25% 611 / 4010 2024 453 ( 2973 RMB) 5G 5G 5G 5G 9 IDC 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2019/08 2019/09 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/01 2020/02 2020/03 2020/04 2020/05 2020/06 2020/07 2020/08 2020/09 2020/10 2020/11 2020/12 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 5G 5G 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2.5G 5G 4G 3G ASP(USD) 4G ASP 5G ASP2021 05 08 P.10 3.1 2021Q1 140.28 116.68% 32 39.37% 61 126.76% 45 267.84% 9.66 228.41% 6.01 100.85% 10 11 70,340.63 5.01% 12 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 0 50 100 150 200 250 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 (%) 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (%) 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q212021 05 08 P.11 13 2020 2019 12,177 8,941 36.19% 13.94% 15.00% -1.06% 3,532,801,720.56 2,022,824,599.33 74.65% 6.12% 5.76% 0.36% 541,498,060.65 573,145,429.51 -5.52% 15.33% 28.33% -13.00% 2021 156,149.18 179,571.56 100%130% Kopin Corporation 14 156,149.18 179,571.56 78,074.59 100%-130% 0.47 / 0.54 / 0.25 / 5G 3.2 2021 210.19 27.29% 13.50 37.44% 11.67 30.14% 2020 15% 16.83% SIP 2021 29.233.0 15%30% 15.719.5 1%25% + +2021 05 08 P.12 15 16 Wind Wind 126.36 2020 57.45 6.21% 5G Airpods watch SIP 3.3 2021 2021 64.27 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (%) 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 (2021 05 08 P.13 19.47% 29.13% 18.87% 1.56 4.63 613.79% 40.09% 17 18 Wind Wind 53.06% 18.87% 1.56 ROE 3.15% 0.56% airpods ipad ASP 5G ASP -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (%) -200.00 -100.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (2021 05 08 P.14 3.4 2021 112.52 99.34% 8.01 125.93% 7.70 160.15% 2020 1.74 IDC 2020 10.6% 4.7% 19 20 Wind Wind OS 21Q1 76.99% 2020 40% GDP ASP 40% 18.3% 5.1% 2020 8 1,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (%) -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (2021 05 08 P.15 3.5 31.35 107.54% 3.30 207.91% 3.03 381.64% 15KW MOPA PCB 21 22 Wind Wind PCB 5G PCB 2021 LDI CO2 4.0 HANS 15KW 12 2021 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 (%) -250.00 -200.00 -150.00 -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21 (2021 05 08 P.16 IT PCB 4.1 TCL 2020 686 48% 49 4508% TCL 2021 818 106% 76 678% 23 TCL 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 457.27 465.11 396.69 506.17 602.35 686.49 818.29 yoy -18% -21% -29% 18% 32% 48% 106% 6.69 1.07 9.75 13.69 21.57 49.23 75.86 yoy -49% -90% -47% -29% 223% 4508% 678% wind 24 25 wind wind2021 05 08 P.17 26 27 wind wind 28 29 wind wind 30 20Q4 21Q1 20Q4 21Q1 20Q4 21Q1 000725.SZ A 34% 92% 3755% 814% 282% 993% 000100.SZ TCL 73% 133% 5744% 489% 873% 2032% wind 4.2 2021Q1 2021 3 4 TV IT 2020H2 TV witsview 2020 5 2021 42021 05 08 P.18 32/43/55/65 TV 141%/91%/100%/56% 32 2020 5 32 2020 12 63 2021 4 77 IT witsview 2020 5 2021 4 NB 2540% MNT 2550% IT 2020H2 2021 23.8 2020 5 55.8 2020 12 59.6 2021 4 68.6 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q2 2020Q3 LGD 67 2020Q4 32 EBITDA 31 witsview2021 05 08 P.19 EBITDA 510 1015 20192020 10.5 6 OLED/Mini LED 4.3 2021 497 108% 51.82 44.85 28.13% 4.67pct 12.69% 5.27pct 2021Q1 11.20 2021Q1 12.59 145 2020Q32021Q1 2020 393 50% 20182020 545/494/442 2021Q1 655 11.20 10.5 OLED 2021Q1 8.5 20142017 2020 5 TV 2020Q4 IT Mini LED AMOLED AMOLED AMOLED Capex FCF2021 05 08 P.20 4.4 TCL IT TCL TCL 15 30% t1 t2 t6 t7 15% 2020 50% t4 AMOLED 2020Q4 2021Q1 5.4 114.58% T10 2021Q2 T10 T7 IT 120 90 T9 30 T9 350 175 TCL 55% T9 180K/M 8.6 LCD IT TCL 2020 TV 55 65 t3 LTPS t4 AMOLED OLED Micro LED 2021 TCL 50% t4 t7 T3 8.5 5.1 Q1 2020 50% 20Q4 100% 2021 100% Q42021 05 08 P.21 33 2020&21Q1 2021 237.44 10 2021 3 87.26 37.6 MLCC 90% R-chip 80% 34 35 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020/1 2020/4 2020/7 2020/10 2021/1 yoy -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2020/1 2020/4 2020/7 2020/10 2021/1 yoy2021 05 08 P.22 36 20210407 3 mlcc 9 r-chip 8 20210311 5g/iot Q2 20210308 2 20210204 1 20210107 12 mlcc 9 r-chip 8 20201207 11 20201106 mlcc 60 5.2 5G ECIA 300 MLCC Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor 120-130 MLCC 10% 145 6 37 38 2019 MLCC Tech Design 64% 19% 14% 3% 5G2021 05 08 P.23 2021 5G 5G IDC 2020 5G 3.26 5G 1.67 50% 2021 3 3609.4 76.2% 5G 2749.8 69.3% 1-3 100.1% 2021-2023 5G 38% 53% MLCC 39 5G 40 5G 41 iPhone MLCC PC Trendforce 20Q2 PC Q4 52% 6439 TrendForce 2021 PC 2.17 8.6% AI PC PC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2019/08 2019/09 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/01 2020/02 2020/03 2020/04 2020/05 2020/06 2020/07 2020/08 2020/09 2020/10 2020/11 2020/12 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 5G 5G 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 5G 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 iPhone iPhone3G iPhone3GS iPhone4 iPhone4S iPhone5 iPhone5s iPhone6 iPhone6s iPhone7 iPhone8 iPhoneX iPhoneXS iPhone11 MLCC2021 05 08 P.24 42 PC 43 PC TrendForce TrendForce MLCC 5 ADAS 2000 2400 2021 1-3 BEV PHEV 53.3 319% 3 8.9% EVsales 2020 7 2 27 132.2% 2 01 9 2 14 2. 15% 2 44 BEV+PHEV EV sales -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 PC yoy 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 50 100 150 200 250 2019 2020 2021E PC yoy2021 05 08 P.25 45 46 MLCC PC 5G 2021 MLCC 20 18 47 21Q1 1uf AVX 20-24 20-25 NIC 20-22 20-22 18-20 TDK 20-22 24-28 18-20 16-18 20-24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f level 4 level 3 level 2 level 1 level 0 1 0.7 0.88 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.04 1 0.9 1.08 1.19 1.3 1.4 1.54 1 0.92 1.17 1.34 1.51 1.66 1.83 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 CY2024 CY2025 MLCC MLCC2021 05 08 P.26 48 21Q1 1uf 1206+ AVX 20-24 20-25 NIC 20-22 20-22 18-20 TDK 22-28 24-28 16-18 20-24 5.3 300 2021 1 29 2021- 2023 2023 2.1 15 49 2020 5G MLCC 2021/2022 110 /90 2021 280 84 MLCC 21Q1 2.5 2021 7 / 30% 5.4 2020 2021 Q1 2020 39.94 +46.51% 14.40 +65.23% 12.47 +56.83% 21Q1 117.56% 13.092021 05 08 P.27 165.25% 4.9 4.71 4.19 +165.53% 2020 51.11% 2pct 2020 21Q1 5.19pct 51.37% 2020 4pct 36.08% 21Q1 7pct 37.47% 2020 21Q1 2.7pct 3.2pct 1 2.2pct 33% MLCC 2020 13.18 56.87% 9.77pct 56.45% MLCC 1 21H2 2 6.64 38.44% IOT PKG 2020 1.29pct 45.05% SAW 3 5G 2020 13.36 43.17% 51.17% 70%-75% 5G 21 + 2020 2.39 +35.45% 5.99% 300 21Q1 +35.45% CapEx 2020 11.64 101% Q1-Q4 1/1.71/3.05/5.87 21Q1 5.26 21Q1 53% 10.66 MLCC 5.5 2021 21Q1 4.37 59.19% 9410.1 9300 99.45% 9265.02 102.02% 21Q1 2% 21% Q1 39.07% 1pct 21.5% 20Q12021 05 08 P.28 17.2% Q1 4pct 5G 3 MLCC 9 r-chip 8 50-60% 80% 2021 1 4 8.5 / 2022 11 / 420 21Q1 8 21H2 6 2020 2021 1 70% 6 700-800 2020 BOPET 9 10 2021 5.6 2021 2 02 1Q1 1.86 49 .38 % 1.79 11 6.13 % 10 8.9 1%12 1.01 % 30 .37% 5p ct 1p ct PC 5G 2021 5G 56 20 Q 4 450 75 20 2 1 280 21 Q 1 5952 11 3 % 2020 6.61 2021 05 08 P.29 2021 4 27 100% 30 % F PC 2020 1.07 6.1 241 12% 53 18% 2020Q1/Q2 2020Q3 SMBG/ 50 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 215.37 275.40 129.30 211.79 240.78 317.82 191.03 yoy 19% 12% -10% 4% 12% 15% 48% 44.49 56.98 18.14 41.79 52.71 60.24 25.17 yoy 19% 16% -2% 16% 18% 6% 39% wind 51 52 wind wind2021 05 08 P.30 53 54 wind wind 55 56 wind wind 57 20Q4 21Q1 20Q4 21Q1 20Q4 21Q1 002415.SZ 21% 48% 13% 45% 12% 38% 002236.SZ 6% 46% -18% 9% -22% 4% wind 6.2 20082017 20082017 40% GDP2021 05 08 P.31 20182020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PBG SMBG EBG 2020Q4 PBG SMBG 2021Q1 40% 58 AI 6.3 2020 2021 2020 635.03 10.14% 133.86 7.82% 128.06 6.38% 2021 139.88 48.36% 21.69 44.99% 20.22 37.64% 2021 E BG2021 05 08 P.32 2020 E B G 20 .6% 2 .1 p ct 23 .9 % K n o w - h o w 2020 16 0.88 10 7.4 % 21 .6 11 . 4 2021 - 20 .1 8 19 .64 8 2020 39 .0 % 66 .9 % 12 .6 % 83 .5 % 2021 1 2021 2. 65 364% X AI AI AI Cloud AI 6.4 2021 2021Q1 51 46% 3.48 9% 0.98 2021Q1 40.90% 2019Q1 37.45% 2020Q1 49.23% 2021Q1 12pct 5pct 2021Q1 0.7 0.6 2021Q1 3.48 9% 3 26 56 17.94 /2021 05 08 P.33 AI AI AI + AIoT AIoT2021 05 08 P.34 “ ” , “ ” “ ” 6 A 300 500 15% 5%15% -5%+5% 5% 10% -10%+10% 10% 26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 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