锂电池行业2021年中期投资策略.pdf
2021 S0790520010001 2021 5 102021 1 2 LG SKI 2021H1 2019-2020H11 2 目 录 CONTENTS 3 4 51.1 7 2021 2021 1-3 17.9/11/22.6 2019 9.1/5.9/12.8 2020 2019 96.7%/86.44%/79.37% 2021 249.7 2020 93.97% 124.85GWh 90.1% 1 km GSE 450 10.99 - 15.99 A Pro 500 15.00 - 19.00 Plus 110 15.98/16.98 Plus 51 14.68/15.68 iA5 510 16.98 - 19.28 AION LX 520/600/650 22.96-34.96 EZS 335 11.98 - 14.98 EUNIQ5 350 16.98-21.38 EV 315 19.48 EV 278 14.89 Ei5 501 12.88 - 16.11 270 13.68 - 14.68 270 14.77 - 16.88 1 2021 0 5 10 15 20 251.2 Wood Mackenzie 2 1.2.1 1 2 2021/2022/2023 33.61/61.13/81.54GWh 55.75% / 2020 26% 22% 2021 20202026.1 2020 2024 1.66 2001 1.3 500MWh 2019 SRP 1,800 2018.52021.5 100 30% 2000 2018.1 1 4 200$/kWh 3000$ 2018.9 5000 4 2018.11 2019.11 6000 80 2020.4 50% 96000 2020 50% 110% 2018.9 1000 + 10 2020.3 1000 50% 2018.32022.12 30% 30% 10 2019.3 500 550 3kWh 1kWh 100 110 3200 3530 2019.7 210 SII 20121.2 3 10%-20% 2020 4 2020 15%-20% 2020 5 2020 + 5% 1 2020 5 28 388.6MW/772.2MWh 20% 2020 6 2020 10% 2020 9 10% 2021 1 10% 2 1 2 0.2 0.10 /kWh 60% 0.05 /kWh 2021 1 10% 2 2021 2 2021 10% 2 20 2021 3 2021 10 10% 2021 3 2021 10% /1 2021 3 600 5 10%-20% 5%- 10% 2 1.2.2 101.2 CNESA 4 1.2.2 20% 2 2023 20.30GWh 70.26% 2021E 2022E 2023E /GW 75.50 89.00 103.69 /GW 71.60 67.70 66.22 /GW 352.51 441.51 545.20 /GW 311.20 344.24 383.24 /GWh 5.88 9.40 13.59 /GWh 3.02 5.34 8.29 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 2 2 /GWh 2.86 4.06 5.30 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 2 2 /GWh 1.12 4.47 6.70 /GWh 0.55 2.22 3.32 0.50% 2.00% 3.00% 20% 20% 20% 2 2 2 /GWh 0.56 2.25 3.38 0.50% 2.00% 3.00% 20% 20% 20% 2 2 2 /GWh 7.00 13.87 20.30 yoy 98.13% 46.321.2 2 K K 1.2.3 3% 0.5h 2023 2.66GWh 16.32% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 K K1 K2 K3 #2 #2 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E /GW 4344 4375 4407 4440 3% 3% 3% 3% /GW 130 131 132 133 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% /GW 3.26 3.94 4.63 5.33 /GWh 1.63 1.97 2.31 2.66 yoy 20.86% 17.52% 15.13% 5 16.32% IEA1.3 2019 4 15 55kg 4 3 2019 4 3.07% 5.81% 4.80% 5.71% 8.64% 13.30% 18.16% 21.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 / / -1.3 GGII 2020 2-3 2-3 5-6 3 2021/2022/2023 24.21/30.39/33.59GWh 7 2021/2022/2023 46.4%/ 25.52%/30.3% 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E / 4760 5093.2 5347.86 5615.253 23.87% 35.00% 45.00% 55.00% / 1136 1782.62 2406.537 3088.389 / 36741 41834.2 47182.06 52797.31 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.40% / 367.41 418.342 235.9103 211.1893 / 1503.41 2200.962 2642.447 3299.578 /GWh 16.53751 24.21058 30.38814 39.59494 yoy 203.44% 46.40% 25.52% 30.30% 2020 6 啰 啰 1 4 2020 8 34 60 2020 10 2020 11 9 62 目 录 CONTENTS 3 4 5 12.1 2021 To C To C 2020 124 + 1-4 7-9 2021 1 1 5 5 2021 2021 CNKI 3 2 5 11 9 12 16 16 7 5 9 4 3 1 2 3 14 14 17 27 17 10 10 6 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 ( ) 82.2 SNE Research 2020Q4-2021Q1 SKI LG 2 2021 4 SNE Research 2021 1-2 CR1 CR5 +1pct/+2.1pct 2021 1-2 1 30pct 2 LG 6 7 2021Q1 GWh) SNE Research 0 5 10 15 20 LG SDI SKI 18.2% 23.4% 27.9% 26.0% 31.7% 45.9% 56.5% 62.5% 68.8% 67.9% 58.3% 68.3% 77.3% 84.4% 84.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CR1 CR3 CR62.2 LG SDI SKI AESC Model Y MEB ID.3 ID.4 17.5GWh 17.2GWh 8.8GWh 7.5GWh EV A EQ S EQ B E-TNGA I4 inext Twingo3 Imk Kona Ceed XCeed PSA DS 3 Crossback Mach-E EE7 P5 LG Model 3 Model Y LG MEB LG LG 10 2021 LG 9 LG GWh Energy trend 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 53.26 82.7 165.41 269.16 360.66 LG 化学 68.2 120 171 221 260 100 200 40 68 103 115.5 129 29 54 76 85 106 SDI 20.5 26 36 41 52 SKI 19.8 29.5 44.8 59.8 85.7 Northvolt 16 32 562.3 GGII 2021Q1 2020 H2 2021 Q1 Q1 23.24GWh +310pct 2021 1-3 48 2020 1 8 GWh 9 2021 Q1 GGII 0 4 8 12 16 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212.3 2021 Q1 CR5 80% CR3 70% CR1 LG Model 3 2021Q1 8pct 52pct 13pct 2021Q1 2.1pct 21Q1 1pct 10 2020 11 MWh 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 2018-01 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 CR1 CR3 CR512 2020 / Wind 2.4 2021 60% 2020 45% 13 2021 NCM811 / Wind 16 17 18 19 20 21 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 NCM811 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/12.5 14 Pilbara Minerals 8.5% North American Lithium Inc. 43.6% 15.0% North American Nickel Inc. 25.4% 5 / 1.38 Kisanfu 40% 1 / 430 / 300 / 112.5 13 121 2 目 录 CONTENTS 3 4 53.1 6F VC LiFSI VC VC 2% 4% VC VC 20 / 2020 15 33% 60% VC VC 1000 2000 VC VC VC VC VC 15 GGII 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 16 VC GGII 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 VC3.1 6F VC LiFSI LiPF 6 2021 LiPF 6 2021 1-3 51.5 279.6% 1.5-2 18 2021 Q1 19 60% 0 50 100 150 200 250 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 2019 2020 2021 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 17 2021 Q1 GWh) 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 20213.1 40% 70% VC 2021 2022 2021 20 / 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% CR3 CR5 21 12000 8160 8000 6000 2000 2000 14 Wind 0.0000 2.0000 4.0000 6.0000 8.0000 0.0000 5.0000 10.0000 15.0000 20.0000 25.0000 六 氟磷酸 锂 电 解液: 磷酸 铁锂- 右轴 6F VC LiFSI3.1 LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI LiPF 6 LiFSI LiFSI (1) LiFSI LiFSI 145 200 SEI 80 SEI (2)LiFSI (3) LiPF 6 LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI LiFSI 15 LiFSI 16 LiFSI LiFSI LiPF 6 200 80 4 . 5 V 5V LiFSI 产能情况 2300 / 2021 4000 LiFSI 2016 200 2018 8 2400 800 2020 Q3 1000 1000 1700 2018 300 / LiFSI 2019 Q3 300 2020 440 300 / 3000 2023 6F VC LiFSI3.2 2021 17 / 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 3 6 8 12 15 8 12 15.5 18.5 21.5 1.5 2 5 9 12 2.9 5 6.6 9.1 11.6 1.2 2 3 6 8 5.8 9.3 13 15 20 3 4 5 5 53.2 1000 / 1700 / 700 / 0 10 20 30 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / 22 2015 71 106 79 84 0 50 100 150 200 2019 2020 23 2020 40 0 20000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 ( / ) ( / ) ( / ) ( / ) 243.2 Lindenpat 18 1. 2021 134 18 212 32 17 37 403.3 LFP LFP LFP LFP LFP -1 LFP 25 19 LFP GGII 2020 / / 4 8 3 1 5 5 3 0 2.5 2.5 0 50 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1003.3 GGII 2020 8 9 2021 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 1.2 1.31 2.43 4.62 7.62 1.9 3.2 4.5 7 10 1 2.4 3 4 6 1.9 2.1 2.34 3.34 4.34 3.3 5.3 7.3 8.5 10 20 NCM3.4 2021 26 2021 CR3 + CR3 2021 2020/2021/2022 43/53.6/65.2 25.6/37.2/48.6 2021 21 2021 53.6 27 2021 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 8.5 23 33 43 53 4.8 7.2 9.6 12 15 2.4 2.4 4.4 6.5 12.5 1 4.6 6 9.6 12.6 1.8 1.8 4.2 7.5 7.5 4 4 4 4 4 2.4 4.2 4.2 6 8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.5 1 1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 40.0 59.1 77.6 99.6 8.7 11.6 15.8 19.9 + 28.0 41.4 54.3 69.7 6.1 8.1 11.1 13.9 34.1 49.5 65.4 83.6 90% 87% 82% 78% + 25.2 36.0 44.5 54.4 5.5 7.0 9.1 10.8 30.6 43.0 53.6 65.2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 3C / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 /3.4 2021 LFP 2021 30% CTP LFP LFP LFP 2020 CTP LFP 2021 LFP 30% (1) CATL (2) (3) 28 GGII 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 351 2 目 录 CONTENTS 3 4 54 2021H1 22 Wind EPS PE 2021/5/7 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 300750.SZ 367.28 4.61 7.67 11.59 79.67 47.89 31.69 002812.SZ 129.73 2.3 3.03 3.8 56.40 42.82 34.14 300035.SZ 10.73 0.51 0.75 1.08 21.04 14.31 9.94 300073.SZ 45.73 1.36 1.91 2.95 33.63 23.94 15.50 002080.SZ 22.05 1.5 1.63 1.74 14.70 13.53 12.67 300568.SZ 28.58 0.71 0.9 1.1 40.25 31.76 25.98 688063.SH 152.00 3.36 5.85 10.25 45.24 25.98 14.83 002594.SZ 143.95 1.97 2.49 3.01 73.07 57.81 47.821 2 目 录 CONTENTS 3 4 55612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5
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