能量饮料赛道优质龙头冉冉升起.pdf

1 / 22 2021 03 25 - -2021.3.7 - -2021.2.28 - -2021.2.22 S0790520030003 S0790520100003 10% 5786 2014-2019 4.5% 2019 428 10% 90% 2013 PET “ ” “ ” “ ” 500ml -31% 0% 31% 62% 93% 123% 154% 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 3002 / 22 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 1.3 . 5 1.4 . 6 2 . 8 2.1 . 8 2.2 . 10 3 . 11 3.1 . 11 3.1.1 . 11 3.2 . 12 3.2.1 . 12 3.2.2 . 13 3.3 . 14 3.4 . 14 3.4.1 . 16 3.4.2 . 16 3.4.3 . 17 4 . 17 4.1 . 17 5 . 19 6 . 20 1 2014-2019 . 4 2 2021 . 4 3 2014-2019 . 4 4 2019 7.9% . 4 5 . 5 6 . 5 7 . 6 8 2013-2020 . 6 9 2011 . 6 10 . 9 11 . 9 12 2017-2019 13.96% . 10 13 2017-2019 24.43% . 10 14 . 10 15 . 10 16 . 11 17 2019 . 123 / 22 18 . 13 19 500ml . 14 20 2019 . 15 21 . 15 22 2019 . 16 23 . 16 24 2017-2019 . 17 25 . 17 26 . 17 27 . 17 28 . 19 29 . 19 1 . 7 2 . 11 3 2019 . 15 4 IPO . 18 5 . 18 6 2018-2019 . 19 7 500ml 250ml . 19 8 . 204 / 22 1 1.1 2014-2019 4652 5786 4.5% 2014-2019 15% 2019 427.75 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 % 15.0% 14.6% 10.8% 6.4% 5.8% 1.6% -0.7% -1.5% -5.5% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 34.6% 21.1% 14.9% 15.6% 7.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 0.35 / 22 10%-20% 5 6 1.2 20 90 1.3 2019 CR5 92% 2016 24.6 13.9 11.2 4.0 2.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 72.1 42.8 35.1 14.3 6.2 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.06 / 22 7 2019 2016 “ ” 2020 11 “ ” 2016 8 9 1.4 250ml 6 2.5-4 /250ml 2018-2019 250ml 5 / 4 / 250ml 3.5 / 3 / 250ml 250ml 250ml 500ml “2 -3 -4 -5 ” 57% 15% 10% 6% 4% 5% 3% XS (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2011 2016 2017 20197 / 22 1 ml 250 250 250 250 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 /250ml 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.8 ml 250 500 250 250 3.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 /250ml 3.0 2.5 4.0 2.0 ml 380 250 2508 / 22 4.0 4.0 5.0 /250ml 2.6 4.0 5.0 ml 580 600 330 4.0 5.0 4.0 /250ml 1.7 2.1 3.0 2 2.1 1994 1998 “ ” 2003 2009 PET 2013 “ ” “ ” 20199 / 22 10 11 2017-2019 28.44 42.09 13.96% 2.96 5.71 24.43% 2019 99% 2019 2017-2019 9510 / 22 12 13 14 15 2.2 2020 4 55.27% 3.87% 60% 2019 4 2.06% 6052 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2017 2018 2019 % (50) 0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2017 2018 2019 % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 201911 / 22 2 0.48% 2015 1 2019 4 2019 4 0.01% 0.01% 0.06% 2015 1 0.01% 2015 1 16 3 “ ” “ ” 2016 3.1 3.1.1 B 250ml 500ml 250ml 250ml 2017- 2019 27.35 40.03 9512 / 22 17 5% 3.2 3.2.1 “ ” “ ” 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2017 2018 2019 13 / 22 18 3.2.2 2009 PET 250ml 500ml 250ml 2017 500ml 2018 500ml 1242% 500ml 2017 2017 0.60 2019 21.67 51.5% 2018 “ ” 202014 / 22 19 3.3 2016 （1）2018 “ ” （2）2019 “ ” “ ” 250ml 30% 50% 2019 1263 5000 200 120 3.4 （1） （2） （3 ） 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 250ml 250ml 250ml 500ml15 / 22 28.68 2017-2019 66.66% 60.12% 2019 16.32 3 “ ” 15% 3.59 1.76 4% 1 20 21 3 25.20 8786 28.68 4.63 12895 3.59 60.1% 11.1% 9.9% 9.4% 4.6% 3.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 2017 2018 201916 / 22 4.14 2534 16.32 3.94 15490 2.54 1.91 10855 1.76 1.44 17918 0.81 0.24 17244 0.14 3.4.1 28.68 2018 2019 36.52% 2017-2019 66.66% 60.12% 22 23 3.4.2 2018 2019 62% 48% 26% 2019 16.32 3 “ ” 11.05% 3.59 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2017 2018 2019 % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2017 2018 2019 / 17 / 22 24 25 3.4.3 2019 76.59% 24.10% 1.76 0.81 1% 0.14 26 27 Wind 4 4.1 IPO 14.9 8.09 54% 24% 160 48.12 39.50 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 2017 2018 2019 - - - 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 2017 2018 2019 - / - / - / 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2017 2018 2019 - - - 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2017 2018 201918 / 22 54% 4 72,878.00 37.93% 46,907.67 50,853.00 26.47% 33,996.10 123,731.00 64.40% 80,903.77 37,091.07 19.31% 37,091.07 5,309.18 2.76% 5,309.18 2,212.04 1.15% 2,212.04 7,521.22 3.91% 7,521.22 3,147.00 1.64% 3,147.00 20,640.35 10.74% 20,640.35 192,130.64 100% 149,303.41 5 - 72,878 2 48.12 36 2 2 50,853 3 39.50 24 1 119 / 22 7 2017 2018 2019 250ml 46.13 80% 40.38 50% -12% 30.59 26% -24% 500ml 4.50 8% 30.98 38% 588% 70.83 59% 129% 250ml 4.50 8% 7.13 9% 58% 15.48 13% 117% 250ml 2.25 4% 2.25 3% 0% 2.25 2% 0% 28 29 5 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2017 2018 2019 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2017 2018 2019 250ml 500ml 250ml 250ml 6 2018-2019 2017 2018 2019 57.4 - 80.7 40.72% 119.1 47.57% 10.0 - 10.8 8.09% 18.9 74.36% 6.7 - 13.0 94.76% 15.1 16.22% 74.0 - 104.5 41.17% 153.1 46.4520 / 22 8 - 2843.8 3037.5 4208.7 YOY 6.8% 38.6% 296.17 215.83 570.57 YOY -27.1 % 164.4 % 46.0 % 46.7 % 45.7 % 7.1 % 13.6 % 15.4 % 621 / 22 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50022 / 22 “ ” “ ” 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065