国机当自强系列研究：采棉纺织机械：助力中国棉纺产业现代化升级.pdf

1 / 17 2021 03 31 - -2021.1.10 S0790520110002 2020 591 2019 84.9% 76% 4 2020/2021 810 875 350 69.83% 97% 15% 2022 1620 33.7 99% 2020-2030 160 500 / 1300 / 2019 70% 2020 45.7 21.6% 2019 80% 50% 2015 2019 2010 2015 1% 2019 92% 25% 2019 197 20 79% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 3002 / 17 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 6 1.3 . 7 2 . 8 2.1 . 8 2.2 . 10 3 . 11 3.1 . 11 3.2 . 12 3.3 . 13 3.4 . 14 4 . 15 1 . 4 2 2019 84.9% . 4 3 2019 76% . 4 4 . 5 5 2020/2021 810 . 5 6 . 6 7 . 6 8 . 6 9 2020 69.83% . 7 10 2020 97% . 7 11 . 7 12 . 8 13 . 9 14 . 9 15 . 9 16 99.2% . 9 17 . 9 18 2022 99.6% . 9 19 . 10 20 2019 70% . 10 21 . 11 22 2019 80% . 11 23 2019 50% . 11 24 2012-2017 . 12 25 2016-2020 . 12 26 2008-2019 . 13 27 2017-2019 . 133 / 17 28 2010-2015 . 14 29 . 14 30 . 14 31 2011 . 15 32 2011 . 15 1 . 6 2 20210331 . 154 / 17 1 1.1 2016-2020 534.28 565.25 610.28 588.9 591 2016-2018 23% 22% 24% 1 Wind 2012 50% 2017 457 80% 2019 76% 85% 2 2019 84.9% 3 2019 76% 1/4 2014 2017-2020 18600 / 7 2019 1.0-1.5 / 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 84.9% 15.1% 76% 245 / 17 4 2021 2020 688 2021 3 2020/2021 810 734 5 2020/2021 810 Wind 2015-2016 2019 1196 0.8% 2021 3 2020 9 1502 20.9% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 / / -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 ( )6 / 17 6 Wind 1.2 1.5 525 60% 9-11 2007 9-11 46.6% 86.3% 95% 3 2020 9-11 10.61% 91.82% 99.86% 80% 1 2008 21.5 2018 11.3 1 1 2.5 875 1 350 1.5 525 7 8 Wind Wind -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2015 2020 -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 0 5 10 15 20 257 / 17 95% 2020 2419.66 1689.63 69.83% 2020 3383 1233 2021 160 88% 4 9 2020 69.83% 10 2020 97% 1.3 69.83% 30.17% 118 / 17 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 2.1 2016-2025 2025 2016-2025 2019 2019 1000 22.5 22.8% 2022 1620 33.7 129 / 17 13 14 2019 4810 99.2% 15 16 99.2% 2022 1614 99.6% 33.6 17 18 2022 99.6% 430 738 1000 1200 1400 1620 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 ( 13.4 18.3 22.5 25.8 29.4 33.7 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2935 3265 3534 4030 4810 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 99.20% 0.80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 99.60% 0.4010 / 17 2020-2030 3 6 3 3000 6 6000 12500 2019 4850 2020-2030 7650 160 8 10 2019 350 2020-2030 500 / 1300 / 2019 445 2025 - 2016-2020 2020 90% 200 30% 2025 95% 200 60% 2.2 2018 2017 2018 2019 0.42 2.66 5.11 82.82% 94.39% 94.88% 45.2% 19 20 2019 70% Wind 0 5 10 15 45.20% 26% 11.60% 5% 5% 4% 2% 1.2011 / 17 3 3.1 2020 2017 2020 45.7 21.6% 2020H1 5.47 604.92% 28.95% 21 2019 80% 50% 22 2019 80% 23 2019 50% 1 22 1 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 80% 20% 50% 5012 / 17 95% 2 2019 72% 2019 25.2% 74.2% 2020 30% 2025 60% 3 4 2016-2020 3.2 2017 1023.86 2016-2020 2019 579 2020 395 24 2012-2017 25 2016-2020 Wind Wind 2019 2019 4300 3400 3350 800 1100 21.4% 418 12% 46 19.3% 2018/2019 74.2/73.0 2018 31.5% 2019 700 350 2019 170 37.14 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 70013 / 17 3.3 2019 2019 2019 23000 10% 2.5 12.1% 4 2008-2010 2011 2018 2019 2019 91000 2010-2015 2017-2019 2.29 2.46 2.85 26 2008-2019 27 2017-2019 2010 2015 3 12056 9659 3096 3951 3397 2231 2019 3300 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.014 / 17 28 2010-2015 2019 91000 17010 9.6 51 IC 2019 1.9 68.7% 2.8 2019 60% 4.6 3.4 2015 2019 2010 100% 2015 1% 29 30 Wind 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 3 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,00015 / 17 2019-2020 2019 92% 2018 80% 85% 30% 25% 2019 197 20 79% 2017 2011-2018 17.35% 2019 31 2011 32 2011 Wind Wind 2 20210331 EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 603337.SH 34.11 0.68 0.77 1.12 31.0 44.4 30.4 600834.SH 5.66 0.16 0.13 0.16 49.2 44.4 35.3 Wind Wind 4 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,50016 / 17 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50017 / 17 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065