“碳中和”开源机械篇：“碳中和”下的机械制造业投资机会.pdf

1 / 30 2021 03 24 - -2021.1.10 S0790520110002 WRI 41.6% 23.2% 7.5% 3 72% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 3002 / 30 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 4 1.3 . 4 2 . 5 2.1 . 6 2.2 . 9 2.3 . 13 3 . 16 3.1 . 16 3.2 . 18 3.3 . 20 3.4 . 23 4 . 25 4.1 . 25 4.2 . 25 4.2.1 . 25 4.2.2 . 26 4.2.3 . 26 4.3 . 26 5 . 28 1 . 4 2 . 5 3 . 5 4 2019 . 6 5 2019 . 6 6 . 6 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 2019 GWh . 8 10 . 8 11 LG . 8 12 . 9 13 . 9 14 2020 . 10 15 . 10 16 . 10 17 . 11 18 . 11 19 . 123 / 30 20 . 12 21 . 12 22 . 12 23 . 13 24 . 13 25 . 13 26 . 14 27 . 14 28 . 14 29 . 15 30 . 15 31 . 15 32 . 15 33 . 17 34 . 17 35 2019 74% . 17 36 2019 52.4% . 17 37 2020 . 18 38 2050 . 18 39 . 19 40 . 19 41 . 20 42 . 21 43 . 22 44 2020 553 . 22 45 . 23 46 . 23 47 . 23 48 . 24 49 . 24 50 2018 . 25 51 . 26 52 . 26 53 . 27 54 . 27 55 2019 . 27 1 . 16 2 AE PEM SOE . 21 3 20210323 . 274 / 30 1 1.1 2020 9 2030 2060 1.2 WRI 41.6% 23.2% 7.5% 3 72% 1 WRI 1.3 , 41.6% , 23.2% , 7.5% , 5.9% , 4.5% , 2.5% , 6.1% , 9.7% , -2.6% , 1.65 / 30 2 2 2020 12 12 2030 12 2020 220,058 2019 9.5% 124,517 4.7% 37,016 3.4% 4,989 2.4% 28,153 34.6% 25,343 24.1% 3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : : : :6 / 30 IRENA 2019 27.25% 33.82% 35.14% 4 2019 5 2019 IRENA IRENA 2.1 2020 136.73 13% 2020 62.85GWh 1% 6 Wind , 33.82% , 31.45% , 16.64% , 6.03% , 12.06% , 35.14% , 24.09% , 10.65% , 10.57% , 5.99% , 13.56% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20207 / 30 3C 2021 2 26 50% 7 2019 39.58 / 30 8 9 2019 GWh Wind Wind LG LG 2015 LG Wroclaw 5 2017 10 13 LG 2018 12 LG 5 2.5 70GWh 2020 3 3 LG EIB 4.8 37.5 2020 4 LG 42 LG 2020 LG 389.99 22.15% LG 10 11 LG Wind LG 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 32.5 28.1 12.3 11.1 4.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LG Chem SDI 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 93 85 96 128 190 272 390 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20209 / 30 / / 2020 5.02 37.65% 2020 1.60 31.92% 2016-2020 2020 5351.58 14% 12 13 Wind Wind 2.2 2020 3 1 Solarzoom 2020 19,087MW 81.78% 2015-2019 2020 2019 63,467.22MW 61.56% 2015 -2019 2020 2021 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2016 2017 2018 2019 202010 / 30 14 2020 Solarzoom 2020 24.85 2019 21.73 15 16 Wind Wind 2019 210 2020 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MW 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201911 / 30 Kalyon 2020Q3 59 2020 38 2019 14.38 82.48% 2019 31.23% 42.87% 2019 0.94 139.6% 17 18 Wind Wind 2019 21.50 76% 2019 6.66 31% 31% 2018 7.73pct 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 0 20 40 60 80 100 12012 / 30 19 20 Wind Wind TOPCON HJT 2020 2020 10.61 2020 9.59 21.96% 2019 3.30 34.37% 21 22 Wind Wind 2017 2020 10 22 2020 100 2015-2019 21.76% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202013 / 30 2015-2019 2017-2019 15.37 22.49 22.58 2019 38.39% 30.86% 23 24 Wind Wind 2.3 2020 3 5 2021 2020 3662.5 5.14% 2018 2019 2021 25 2020 4,657 25.12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2017 2018 2019 202014 / 30 26 2020H1 8.10 54% 2020 2020 1-9 38.43 22.57% 8.01 23.09% 13.94 19.49% 2.88 4.48% 32.79% 20.82% 2020 33.22% 20.69% 27 28 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 202015 / 30 29 30 Wind Wind 2019 14.31 20.74% 2020Q1-Q3 16.75 69.08% 3.10 183% 2019 3.74 26.17% 2019 8.59 27% 28.33% 3.39pct 31 32 Wind Wind 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2011 2012 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201916 / 30 3 3.1 50% 30-40% 500km 1 / 143MJ/kg - 44MJ/kg H2O CO2 CO H2O SO2 50% - 30-40% CO2 CO SO2 15 2-8 10 500km 260km 500km 2020 8 2014 LULUCF 123.01 8.2 84.1% 46.917 / 30 33 34 2019 205.7 45.0 519.6 6.2 29.7% 26.3% 83.5% 90.1% 50% 74.0% 52.4% 35 2019 74% 36 2019 52.4% 2020 11 30 53.4% 36% 0.1% , 84.1% , 8.5% , 6.1% , 1.2% , 0.1% 20.5% 30.4% 46.9% 1.6% 0.7% , 0.1% , 4.0% , 0.7% , 11.7% , 4.5% , 5.0% , 74.0% , 1.5% , 0.8% , 7.6% , 30.5% , 7.2% , 52.418 / 30 37 2020 2050 2458 / 19% 8357 1000 1.2 70% 38 2050 3.2 2016 2016 2030 15 2017 36.0% 6.1% 4.5% 53.4% 0.1% 41% 57% 219 / 30 39 2020 9 2020 10 27 2.0 2025 2030-2035 1000 5000 2025 2030-2035 10 100 40 2.0 2020 12 2120 / 30 2020 12 29 14.51 kgCO 2e/kgH 2 4.9 kgCO 2e/kgH 2 41 2021 2 2021 2025 2025 70 1 2021 3 3.321 / 30 42 + 2 AE PEM SOE AE 1000 / PEM 50 / SOE 3-5 4222 / 30 43 2021 2 LBST 2020 553 28 26 18 14 44 2020 553 LBST / 2015-2019 10 2019 2737 306.74% 2020 2020 2021 , 42% , 13% , 11% , 6% , 5% , 23% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202023 / 30 45 3.4 2012 2013-2020 96.8% 2020 5.72 2015 40% 2018 50.32% 46 47 Wind Wind 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0 20 40 60 80 100 2016 2017 2018 201924 / 30 2014 2021 3 2 2019 6.94 31.26% 2020 1.64 43.08% 2017-2019 2019 1.52 2020 1.47 48 49 Wind Wind 1956 1998 2016 2019 6 5000 2020 9 4 2021 2 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q325 / 30 4 4.1 2018 70% 50 2018 2018 47.2 6.23 13.2% 4.2 4.2.1 2015 2019 2018 2020 44 2018 2019 32 39 2020 7 BPRT 2% 4% 55% 7% 2% 3% 9% 13% 626 / 30 4.2.2 2019 8.8 / 87.17% 5.74 88.27% 51 52 4.2.3 2018 4.3 2013 2016 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 89% 90% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201927 / 30 53 Wind 2015 2019 1.84 266.38% 54 55 2019 3 20210323 EPS PE 2020A/E 2021E 2022E 2020A/E 2021E 2022E 300316.SZ 32.66 0.66 0.95 1.26 49.8 34.2 25.9 300751.SZ 459.22 6.50 9.24 12.39 70.6 49.7 37.1 300724.SZ 106.18 1.85 2.73 3.59 57.3 38.9 29.6 002595.SZ 31.70 1.32 1.70 2.18 24.0 18.6 14.6 603985.SH 25.10 1.97 2.21 2.44 12.7 11.4 10.3 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201928 / 30 300450.SZ 73.76 1.17 1.46 1.78 63.3 50.4 41.4 688006.SH 61.41 - 1.52 2.11 87.4 40.4 29.1 688155.SH 87.32 0.80 2.65 4.06 87.2 32.9 21.5 688339.SH 231.99 - 2.29 3.40 -770.7 101.0 68.2 A21017.SH - - - - - - - 000811.SZ 7.45 - - - - - - 601369.SH 9.85 - - - - - - 603686.SH 19.50 1.06 1.29 1.53 18.3 15.1 12.8 Wind Wind 529 / 30 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50030 / 30 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065