“碳中和”开源钢铁有色篇：“碳中和”催生商品供给侧重大重塑机遇.pdf

1 / 24 2021 03 20 S0790520100002 3060 2019 98.26 29% 30 60 2030 2060 5% 88% 64% 11.2 2019 19% 37% 2019 0.7% 2021 - 2020 12 2021 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 3002 / 24 1 “3060” . 4 2 . 5 2.1 “ ” . 7 2.2 . 8 3 . 12 3.1 . 12 3.2 . 13 4 . 14 4.1 . 14 4.2 . 18 5 “ ” . 21 6 . 22 1 2019 29% . 4 2 . 4 3 . 4 4 80.3% . 5 5 64.3% . 6 6 86% . 6 7 . 6 8 . 8 9 2 . 10 10 . 11 11 . 11 12 . 12 13 TOP 4 . 12 14 . 12 15 . 13 16 62% . 14 17 . 14 18 40% . 14 19 . 15 20 75% . 15 21 81% . 15 22 2021 . 17 23 3 . 18 24 2015 . 19 25 2020 . 20 26 2019 . 20 27 2019 . 203 / 24 28 15 . 20 29 54% . 21 30 . 21 1 . 6 2 2021 247 . 7 3 11.2 . 8 4 2021 . 9 5 . 10 6 . 16 7 . 16 8 . 17 9 . 19 10 . 224 / 24 1 30 60 2020 9 2030 2060 BP 2019 98.26 29% Wind 2017 75% 1 2019 29% 2 BP EDGER EDGER 3 Wind 2017 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 ( ) ( ) , 31% , 14% , 7% , 5% , 3% , 2% , 2% , 2% , 30% , 44% , 18% , 13% , 8% , 3% , 3% , 2% , 2% , 15 / 24 2 “ ” 2020 6.5 6.5% 80.3% 2020 4.26 5% 4 80.3% IAI + 86% EMBER 90% 13500kWh 5012 kWh 2020 6.7% IAI 20% 64% 23 10 88% 12.8 2021 2 2.6 80 , 0.3% , 18.7% - , 3.0% - , 77.3% , 0.66 / 24 5 64.3% 6 86% IAI IAI 7 EMBER 1 kWh/ 164 14527 51% 49% 0% 0% 0% 9.2 ( ) 440 14900 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 16.6 565 15126 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 6.1 3580 13531 10% 88% 0% 0% 1% 12.8 381 15499 84% 14% 0% 1% 1% 2.7 110 15510 80% 0% 0% 20% 0% 3.8 ( ) 761 15474 86% 5% 0% 3% 6% 1.9 192 14501 32% 67% 0% 1% 0% 9.5 242 15510 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 17.1 6434 14273 25% 64% 0% 10% 1% 9.3 IAI , 64.3% CO2 , 6.3% (CO2), 8.9% , 3.6% , 13.4% , 3.6% - , 65% - , 21% , 10% , 1% , 2% , 1% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20197 / 24 2.1 SMM 2021 1 332.3 3955 / 4320 / 91.6% 4500 SMM 2021 247.3 2 2021 247 2020 2021 ) 100 2020.9 2022 15 45 24 2020.1 2020.4 21 35 2020.9 2021 11 24 50 2020.6 2021.6 50 45 2020.12 2021 5 40 45 2019.12 2020.1 45 40 2020.11 2021 8 32 25 2020.7 2021.2 16.6 8.3 25 2019.12 2020.6 20 43 2018.5 2020.12 18 8 50 2018.3 2020.1 5 40 2021Q2 2021 40 35 2020.8 2021.6 35 20 2021 2021 20 30 2018.5 2021.6 20 30 2018.4 2020.12 10 249.6 247.3 SMM 11.28 / 24 3 11.2 1 1 2019 3593 88% CO2 C02 CO2 kWh/ t t /t tC02/t tC02/ t kWh t 1 13500kWh/t 13500 4.32 11.2 0 4850.55 4.12 1kWh 1 , 2.60 CO2 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 13 1.8 IAI 0.03 0.23 11.2 2.1% IAI 2019 32.75% 2019 690 19.29% 8 2.2 2019 2021 2 7 2019 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 45009 / 24 184% 2 9 2021 3 11 “ ” 2021 4 2021 GDP 3% 500 1.9% 4% 2021 2021 115 2021 2 10 3.39 2021 2 10 0.01 0.02 ( ) 2021 10 2021 8 2021 0.1 0.3 ( 0.4 0.5 ) 2022 2023 30% 50% 2019 2 2 4 0.010.02 / 133266 / 2 12583 / 1638 /10 / 24 15% 2 15.5 611.2 3 12 ( ) 3 31 1.5 1.5 43 12.4% 7% 2021 100 5 306 206.6 345.2 345.2 651.2 551.8 SMM 9 2 202011 / 24 - 2020H1 / / 305/140/239 2023 300 / 420 / 300 / 10 11 Wind Wind - 280 3 42 2 15 / 2*300MW 9 2019 5% 14% 200 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020H112 / 24 12 Wind - 4 2019 34.23 2.8% 50% 3.4 14 20 TOP5 10% 13 TOP 4 14 Wind Wind 3 3.1 15001800 90% 2019 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2017 2018 2019 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 2017 2018 201913 / 24 3033 2433 2020 958 14.6% 703 GDP 35.3% 2020 12 86% 2019 800 450550 196.8 40% 160 30 15 2020 3.2 25000 2022 1.25 1 25000 3 5 2 / / 4.1% 12.1% 4 7300 / 29.2 / 3799 / 60% 0.7% , 36.57% , 16.69% , 8.45% , 15.96% , 19.6214 / 24 16 62% - 160 / 30% 29 0.7% 2020 157.5/9.54 30% 2020H1 59.2% 25.4% 5.1% 6.3% 17 18 40% Wind Wind 4 4.1 15% - , 62% , 3% , 14% , 14% , 2% , 4% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3 YOY , 14% , 36% , 8% , 5% , 11% PVC , 12% , 3% , 5% , 715 / 24 Mysteel - 85% 15% 19 20 75% 21 81% Mysteel Mysteel 3.1t 67% 9.3% 8.5% 1.86t 87% 47.0% 28.7% 1.7% 7.3% 3.3% 12.0% 47.8% 33.5% 5.5% 1.6% 1.2% 5.8% 4.616 / 24 6 t t 0.19 6% 1.613 86.80% 0.265 9% 0.034 1% 2.079 67% 0.288 9% 0.246 8% 0.246 13.20% 3.102 100% 1.859 100% 2021 2020 12 2021 2000 2015 2016 7 / / 2020/12/28 2021 2021/1/4 2021 2021 2021/1/26 2021/1/27 2020 2021 2021/2/7 2021/2/22 2021/3/1 2021/3/517 / 24 / / 22 2021 Mysteel 3 3 1-2 45% 3 10 7 450m3 Mysteel 3 12 70 44.44% 19.06 53.14% 2018 8 A A B- B- B- B- B- C C C C C C 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202118 / 24 C C C D D D D D D D D D Mysteel 23 3 Mysteel 4.2 2021 3 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 2017-03-17 2017-12-17 2018-09-17 2019-06-17 2020-03-17 2020-12-17 Mysteel Mysteel19 / 24 24 2015 Wind 9 / 600019.SH 9.02 2009 223 4687 4286 600010.SH 1.71 780 456 1546 5042 000932.SZ 7.47 458 61 2199 2082 000898.SZ 3.79 356 94 2714 1313 000825.SZ 5.23 298 57 1086 2743 000709.SZ 2.41 256 106 2672 958 000959.SZ 4.49 237 53 810 2932 600808.SH 3.02 233 77 1984 1172 600282.SH 3.71 228 61 1097 2079 600126.SH 5.89 199 34 441 4511 600782.SH 5.95 190 32 902 2103 002110.SZ 7.88 193 25 1037 1863 600022.SH 1.59 174 109 1379 1262 600507.SH 9.65 208 22 367 5669 601003.SH 6.93 178 26 1367 1299 000778.SZ 4.08 163 40 524 3107 601005.SH 1.63 145 89 672 2163 000761.SZ 3.21 124 39 996 1249 600307.SH 1.91 120 63 748 1599 000717.SZ 4.82 117 24 741 1574 600569.SH 2.65 76 29 770 989 600231.SH 2.64 75 28 590 1265 600581.SH 4.17 64 15 580 1102 600117.SH 3.75 39 10 181 2165 Wind 2021 3 19 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2015/1/5 2016/1/5 2017/1/5 2018/1/5 2019/1/5 2020/1/5 2021/1/5 : : PB/ 300PB20 / 24 - 2018 8.5 2 2019 19 135 77% 22% 28.4% 25 2020 26 2019 Wind Wind 27 2019 28 15 Wind Wind - 20 2019 2.46 0.17 54.2% 3.7% 2015 2.11 2019 11.20 5 40% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 ( ): (500mm) , 84.9% , 13.8% , 1.3% , 76.8% , 22.3% , 0.9% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 2015 2016 2017 2018 201921 / 24 29 54% 30 Wind Wind 5 5% 88% 64% 11.2 2019 19% 4 29.2 0.7% , 40.3% , 3.7% , 54.2% , 1.8% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2015 2016 2017 2018 201922 / 24 2020 12 2021 10 % PE PB 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 000807.SZ 11.45 133.78 77.93 52.02 39.65 27.06 40.65 26.74 19.15 1.23 3.05 2.74 2.41 000612.SZ 10.53 124.12 432.52 - - 48.29 14.74 - - 1.19 1.79 - - 002996.SZ 24.61 16.89 10.37 - - - - - - - - - - 601388.SH 4.39 17.86 - - - 34.01 - - - 1.43 - - - 600295.SH 17.94 40.74 30.06 245.30 5.40 9.61 14.69 4.25 4.04 1.02 1.89 1.33 1.01 600019.SH 9.02 -42.08 1.99 31.93 7.46 10.29 15.85 12.02 11.18 0.72 1.09 1.03 0.98 000932.SZ 7.47 -40.48 45.37 7.26 4.31 4.60 7.37 6.88 6.59 0.72 1.41 1.21 1.07 600282.SH 3.71 -34.98 -2.39 14.83 13.55 5.86 8.96 7.81 6.87 0.91 1.12 1.02 0.92 600507.SH 9.65 -41.54 25.08 4.14 4.37 8.51 9.33 8.94 7.94 2.23 2.13 1.91 1.81 600782.SH 5.95 -42.19 -25.27 10.50 8.80 4.79 7.44 6.73 6.19 0.75 0.76 0.63 0.58 600516.SH 10.01 -63.95 -71.43 35.94 8.75 16.40 66.16 48.66 44.75 2.20 - - - 002645.SZ 12.30 13.96 27.02 54.86 36.90 21.93 20.35 14.87 0.00 2.01 2.25 1.97 - Wind Wind 2021 3 19 2020 2020 623 / 24 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50024 / 24 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065