就地过年下的经济“开门红”.pdf

1 / 10 2021 02 17 - VS -2021.2.16 -3 -2021.2.15 -10Y 2% -2021.2.6 S0790520060002 S0790120070013 2021 2021 2021 13 2019 53.7% 2019 22% 34% 3 147 2019 1.6 2019 34.2 5 2019 27 2019 40% 2019 3 9 68.4% 34.2 20.8 2.7 2019 2020 75.9% 76.4% 2021 13 2019 68% 2020 5000 1-2 2500 7 2019 592 / 10 1 “ ” . 3 2 . 8 3 . 8 1 . 3 2 2021 . 3 3 . 4 4 . 4 5 2019 90% . 4 6 . 4 7 2021 . 5 8 2019 68.4% . 5 9 2021 7 . 5 10 . 5 11 “ ” . 6 12 . 6 13 . 6 14 2021 . 6 15 2020 . 7 16 2020 . 7 17 1.4 . 7 18 2019 5000 . 7 19 . 8 20 PMI 8 . 83 / 10 1 2021 2021 1 20 2021 2019 60% 13 2019 53.7% 4000-5000 1 1 2 2 2021 2019 22% 33% 57% 41% 66% 1 1 19 -2 11 24 2 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 19 -2 11 - 2021 2021 2019 ( ) 4 / 10 3 4 3 147 2019 91% 1.6 52% 2019 34.2 3 5 3 57% 2019 27 5 2019 90% 6 1 28 -2 11 2.7 2019 2020 75.9% 76.4% 3 2019 31.6% 3 5 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2018 2019 2021 2021 2019 ( ) % 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 14 1 16 1 18 1 20 1 22 1 24 1 26 1 28 1 30 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 11 2019 12 % % 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 2019 2020 2021 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 3 2019 2020 2021 5 / 10 7 2021 8 2019 68.4% 17 2021 2019 53.9% 4 2019 70% 2020 12.8% 5 44% 9 2021 7 10 4 1 19 -2 11 24 5 5 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1 28 1 30 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 11 2 13 2 15 2 17 2 19 2 21 2 23 2 25 2 27 3 1 3 3 3 5 3 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2019 2020 2021 3 ( ) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 19 -2 11 - 2021 2021 2019 ( ) % -100 -50 0 50 100 17 2019 20216 / 10 11 12 2021 13 2019 68% 6 2020 13 14 2021 6 1 19 -1 27 9 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2021 2020 7 - % 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 2018 2019 2021 2021 2019 ( ) % -200 0 200 400 600 800 -15 0 15 30 45 60 2020-11-30 2020-12-04 2020-12-08 2020-12-12 2020-12-16 2020-12-20 2020-12-24 2020-12-28 2021-01-01 2021-01-05 2021-01-09 2021-01-13 2021-01-17 2021-01-21 2021-01-25 2021-01-29 2021-02-02 2021-02-06 2021-02-10 5 2020 11 30 0 100 200 300 400 500 5 1 18 2020 20217 / 10 15 2020 16 2020 Wind Wind 5000 1-2 2500 7 7 2019 59 17 1.4 18 2019 5000 11 PMI 8 54.7% 12 7.3% 7 2019 5139 2018 2017 2018 1.4 1-2 2500 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 % 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2018 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 1 2 3 4 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( )8 / 10 19 20 PMI 8 Wind Wind 2 1 2021 13 2019 53.7% 2021 2 2019 22% 3 2019 1.6 3 2019 40% 4 2.7 2019 2020 75.9% 76.4% 5 2020 6 3 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 2019-06 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 （% ） 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07 2016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 PMI 9 / 10 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50010 / 10 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065